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Mueller report may be delivered to Congress as early as next week (March 22nd Update: Mueller Report delivered to Barr)
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There could possibly be sealed indictments but there has been no indication of it. We have no way of knowing and anyone claiming to know is full of shit.
I fear that the only way this ever sees the light of day is if by some miracle it 'Completely Clears President'...
Even if it and when it doesn't 'Completely Clear President' everyone on the right is going to spin it as such simply because Trump himself didn't have his tiny little hand in the cookie jar personally.
Probably start a war tbh. It's his only shot at winning in 2020
Even if it and when it doesn't 'Completely Clear President' everyone on the right is going to spin it as such simply because Trump himself didn't have his tiny little hand in the cookie jar personally.
There will be several protests and marches. Likely much larger than the Woman's March and likely much louder. It will last a weekend maybe then Trump will say or do something else horrible and we will all be forced to move on. I want to be wrong. I know I will want to and be ready to riot. But for most outside of the bubble on the left this will be just another stinky fart in the wind.
Probably start a war tbh. It's his only shot at winning in 2020
This is probably my favorite response to one of my posts in 20 years of being on message boards. And I say that with all sincerity.
There may be small protests and marches. That's it. Most people aren't going to be up in arms about something they aren't going to see, especially if it isn't resulting in criminal charges for the president.
And I don't think a war is necessary for him to win in 2020 if the economy remains strong. I predicted a Trump win in 2016 to much naysaying, and I predict another one in 2020 if he comes out unscathed in the Mueller report.
If it's presented to Congress, it'll be leaked to the public no matter what.
Completely ignoring the reason the midterms were such a success for Democrats.
2024? Maybe.
Look, that's where I want him to be in 2020. But I don't see it happening. Too many things have to go right, and overall most Americans (like it or not) are better off than they were in 2016.
Not at all. I hope you don't think the midterms guarantee a democratic win in 2020.
That's not what I'm saying. The midterms were without a doubt, a direct rebuke of Trump and the party letting him run wild. It's a sign of where independents think we are at and what's at stake. It's also a sign that more than ever, people are united and willing to get of their asses and vote. Record numbers for midterms.
There's no point in impeaching him because no matter how bad it is Republican Senators will close ranks.
Better to just indict him. It's untested legal territory, but there's at least a chance of it working.
Given how incredibly close 2016 was, given the midterm and the midterm turnout numbers, given his historic unpopularity, given his favorability amongst independents, it's completely impossible to adequately justify being comfortable predicting he'll win anything.
I don't disagree. I'm just not convinced it will translate over entirely in the general IF he comes out reasonably unscathed with Mueller and if the economy remains so strong.
On what basis are you claiming people are better off today than in 2016? Rich people? Because the market is roughly the same as it was in 2016. And the entire country is worse off today than it was in 2016. Kids in cages, EPA basically eradicated, conservative extreme judges being put in the courts.
Too many things have to go right for him to lose? He barely beat crooked Hillary and still lost the overall.
Too many things have to go right lol
2016 wasn't exactly close on the electoral map.
The general election is decided by casual voters, and those uncomfortable with the status quo.
Also, one term presidents are rare than not. It is the incumbents race to lose. And if Joe Voter is generally happy with his lot in life in 2020, Trump gets re-elected.
Look, I hear you. And I heard the backlash in 2016 when I explained why the LA Times poll was actually legit and Hillary was going to lose (more so than Trump winning).
I still showed up and voted for Hillary and hoped against hope all night she would pull it off.
But reality is truth.
e m
I do think the protests will be large and loud. They just won't go much beyond that stage. As for 2020 you may be right. Outside of the bubble most of the country is in a better place economically than they were before his presidency even though that has nothing to do with him and in fact is in spite of him instead of because of. The economy would be even stronger with a President that didn't isolate us and constantly inspire doubt in the markets.
Bottom line is even though he makes those of us that are progressive seethe with anger on a daily basis the majority of the country just isn't too bothered by much of anything he says and does. The only real speed bump for him in his presidency was the government shutdown that lasted way too long. It was a major loss and miscalculation from many different perspectives.
The rest of it (Kids in Cages, ACA cuts, Tax Breaks for Wealthy, Racism) are major issues for those of us on the left but everyone else gives them a frown and a shrug at best. They will vote for the relative stability they have experienced over the past term.
The one lesson we Dems never seem to learn is that no matter how shitty and terrible the candidate of the GOP is they will ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS hold their nose and go in there and vote for the team. So no matter how low his polling is we have to absolutely count on every Republican going in the booth, gritting their teeth, and voting for his ass. Then continue to lie to the pollsters and themselves about it.
I do think the protests will be large and loud. They just won't go much beyond that stage. As for 2020 you may be right. Outside of the bubble most of the country is in a better place economically than they were before his presidency even though that has nothing to do with him and in fact is in spite of him instead of because of. The economy would be even stronger with a President that didn't isolate us and constantly inspire doubt in the markets.
Bottom line is even though he makes those of us that are progressive seethe with anger on a daily basis the majority of the country just isn't too bothered by much of anything he says and does. The only real speed bump for him in his presidency was the government shutdown that lasted way too long. It was a major loss and miscalculation from many different perspectives.
The rest of it (Kids in Cages, ACA cuts, Tax Breaks for Wealthy, Racism) are major issues for those of us on the left but everyone else gives them a frown and a shrug at best. They will vote for the relative stability they have experienced over the past term.
The one lesson we Dems never seem to learn is that no matter how shitty and terrible the candidate of the GOP is they will ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS hold their nose and go in there and vote for the team. So no matter how low his polling is we have to absolutely count on every Republican going in the booth, gritting their teeth, and voting for his ass. Then continue to lie to the pollsters and themselves about it.
My point is this report didn't matter in a time when you historically have way lower voter turnout. It wasn't brought up. It was out of the headlines. People voted because they can't stand him and what he's doing. He cannot win with his base alone. The economy isn't that much more thriving since November, that you'll have scores of undecideds and independents going "hmmmm, I have an extra bit of cash now, think I'll vote for more Trump. They've decided he's shit, and it's an uphill climb for Trump now. Not impossible, but it is in no way a slam dunk.
It's paint on rusted steel. Traders gonna trade. Federal workers not being able to pay bills by missing a paycheck should tell you something. It's the same story for most if the country. The economy is only good for people already in a very good position, which is increasingly small percentage of the population. Trump can't win on the economy. The same metrics you're looking at weren't much different than in 2016. Trump ran on Obama ruining the economy. He's a con man.
Yes it was. It was close any way you look at it. You can't possibly make coherent predictions if you don't accept that.
The less likely thing happened. That you guessed right doesn't mean guessing is knowing.
Economically. More people are employed, and wages have risen. We can easily point out that these are not as good of jobs as what they replaced, wage growth is less than we'd like, etc.
But working in an economic based business, with my entire family in related industries - it's not just the rich who are enjoying a stronger economy. A strong economy set in motion by Obama. That he gets no credit for. But it's a strong economy. Like it or not.
Nah. Not when you win FL, OH, PA, NC.
And of course I didn't know. How could I? Every prediction is a guess in politics.
This is where I disagree. A 50 year low unemployment rate is a 50 year low unemployment rate. No matter how you slice it. In terms of how the average American is doing, this looks and feels a LOT like the late 90s.
The number of votes that made the difference was tiny. Any downward shift in his numbers is disastrous for him because he has no margin.
Not every prediction is just a guess. Some are more informed than others. A complex model driven by analysis is not the same as someone going "eh, I think that one's gonna win." Trump wasn't likely to win. But he did, and that doesn't mean it wasn't unlikely.
When they count part time and gig jobs and minimum wage jobs what does that really mean? It's not the late 90s when half the country is a week away from missing rent. It's paint. Id actuallly say the reason unemployment is so low is that there are so many people hustling multiple shitty jobs just to get by.
A better metric is poverty. It's at 15%. Strange with a sub 5% unemployment rate 15% of the population is broke as fuck. And half the country doesn't even have $500 of disposable income in their bank. It's an economy entirely built on consumer spending. Another big recession is imminent and all the warning signs are there. Loan defaults, December spending way down last year, federal workers in food lines from missing a check. It's not a good economy for most of the country.
But yeah, let trump obviously profiting from his office and pulling stock shorts and wall sreet keep telling you it's great. These rich fucks need to start realizing if you pay people better and give them benefits it actually increases consumer spending and thus their bottom line. Fuck you got mine trickle down wealth sheltering is so fucking dumb. We all do better when we all do better.
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A better metric is poverty. It's at 15%. Strange with a sub 5% unemployment rate 15% of the population is broke as fuck.
Disastrous midterms certainly don't guarantee a loss for the president in the next election. Obama went through a disastrous midterm. The main difference is that Obama was likable as a person, and he knew that he had to actually try and win back voters that he lost after all the ACA drama. Trump literally doesn't know the meaning of compromise and he's incapable of moderating his own behavior to win back people that he's lost. And he's lost a LOT of people. Polls are consistently showing over 50% who say they will "definitely not" vote for him. All he does is keep doubling down and playing to his base, but his base isn't large enough to win an election on its own.
There are two factors that work in his favor:
1. Schultz. Polls have been showing that Schultz will win him the election against everyone but Biden.
2. The 50% that will "definitely not" vote for him won't necessarily vote for dems. In fact, more than enough people don't vote for that number not to necessarily matter.
I'm hoping the next inevitable recession happens near election time, cause nothing is assured otherwise.
Yep,I'm sure people said the same things about Nixon going to jail back in the day. The truth is being rich (regardless of how the money is earned) is basically a get out of jail free card in America.
Obama definitely fixed the economy after the disaster of the George W. Years but you can't really blame a president for economic performance it was an unregulated financial collapse that had very little to do with specific policies set up by Bush.
As for today and the 90's Tech innovation has a lot more to do with it: despite Reganites claiming otherwise.
Reagan can't be credited for the 90's boom any more than Clinton can: it was an 80% Internet based boom and bust cycle not tax hikes or cuts or specific legislation that moved the economy. Although you could argue the Microsoft Monploly law suit caused the 2000's crash.
Blaming the previous president for losses and taking credits for gains is the oldest political trick in the book.
If he skates through this it'll give him insane momentum for 2020, IMO. He'll gloat like nothing else and play the 'deep state conspiracy' narrative and people will be more emboldened to support and vote for him.
he secured a decent electoral margin by winning a couple of states by margins of less than 1%. It was a close election by any reasonable standard.
It feels about time, with his national emergency prob speeding things up for them to get this going and get him out before he does any more damage. We all know that's where this report is going, we watched it every day.
I could see big things might start leaking if this is actually close.
I could see big things might start leaking if this is actually close.
Marcy Wheeler's latest post gave me hope (the one about the timing of window between Rosenstein and Barr and the timing of the report release). We'll see. I live to see the orange fucker go down.
I'm gonna need a source on that polling cause I've yet to see anything like that aside from his obviously garbage internal polling. Howard Schultz has very little appeal to anyone besides the type of people who voted for Trump. Let's also keep in mind that 2016 had the two most unpopular presidential candidates in American history and third parties still only got 5.7% of the popular vote. A dem candidate as unpopular as Clinton is far from a sure thing. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to be a spoiler, but there's not a lot to indicate yet that anyone will still care about Schultz even early next year, much less in November.
Forget the Mueller report. SDNY is where it's at y'all. That's going to be the nail in Easy D's coffin.
We know that one sealed indictment is against Julian Assange, which was accidentally leaked back in November.
No one knows if it's from SCO, but it's hard to believe it's not connected to the investigation in some way given Roger Stone's involvement and recent arrest. There have also been other court documents referring to Assange via alias, so we know for sure he's been scrutinized by Mueller at the very least.
Report or no report, this whole scandal isn't going away anytime soon. Plenty of loose ends that certainly won't be wrapped up by next week.
Something about this doesn't feel right.
Why is Barr saying this? Is it just coincidentally timed for when Trump is supposed to be going to Vietnam? Why was Trump so strangely eloquent in his confidence in Barr when asked about that by the press? And... why did Trump choose Barr to begin with, if not because Barr is genuinely a Trump ally? And all of this is just weeks after Stone's arrest and confiscation of reams of his material? And just weeks after Whitaker oozed a bunch of sweat saying much the same thing? No more grand jury? Stacks of documents being securely wheeled out of the Counsel's office?
Whatever is happening... I don't like it.
Why is Barr saying this? Is it just coincidentally timed for when Trump is supposed to be going to Vietnam? Why was Trump so strangely eloquent in his confidence in Barr when asked about that by the press? And... why did Trump choose Barr to begin with, if not because Barr is genuinely a Trump ally? And all of this is just weeks after Stone's arrest and confiscation of reams of his material? And just weeks after Whitaker oozed a bunch of sweat saying much the same thing? No more grand jury? Stacks of documents being securely wheeled out of the Counsel's office?
Whatever is happening... I don't like it.
On a purely emotional level, it's comforting that Mueller was there these past years. Just knowing that a duty-driven, just-the-facts, independent investigation was chugging away in the background helped me cope with the madness of Trumpism engulfing the world. It suggested the possibility of real institutional accountability. Compared to something like Brexit, where the only significant counterpoint is investigative reporting but all the government institutions seem paralysed, it was nice to have an example of checks and balances working as intended.
Regardless of the outcome and follow-up, I'm going to miss that sense of security when Mueller wraps up.
Regardless of the outcome and follow-up, I'm going to miss that sense of security when Mueller wraps up.
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