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New Fox Poll (A+ pollster): Warren surges to second, Sanders drops to 10%.
- Thread starter Autodidact
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Biden is the worst scenario possible and would be a redux of Hilary Clinton's campaign, but much worse. If you really want to beat Trump you'll need someone whose witty and personable who is able to snap through his bullshit when he's on stage and off. If I was a betting man I would be quaking in my boots if he's nominated.
Obama you should have Joe run four years ago. We could have just gotten this out of the way. He was never going to listen this time
Feel like this is worth posting, Pew (another one of the gold standard pollsters) also released their most recent standings for the Democratic primary, though their poll is a little dusty (conducted 7/22 through 8/4):
Biden 26
Warren 16
Sanders 12
Harris 11
Buttigieg 5
Other 5
Don't Know/Refused 25
Still a pretty wide-open race. As you can see Biden and Warren doing slightly worse and Sanders and Harris doing slightly better than in the Fox News poll.
Oh, and while skimming through PPP's Twitter feed I found this notable:
I've always found Booker somewhat underrated as a candidate (in terms of popularity/electability, not whether or not I like him - I really don't).
Biden 26
Warren 16
Sanders 12
Harris 11
Buttigieg 5
Other 5
Don't Know/Refused 25
Still a pretty wide-open race. As you can see Biden and Warren doing slightly worse and Sanders and Harris doing slightly better than in the Fox News poll.
Oh, and while skimming through PPP's Twitter feed I found this notable:
We found on the national poll we did this week that Cory was actually 4th among the Democrats in net favorability, behind only Biden, Sanders, and Warren. That gives him a lot of potential to move up in the horse race as the contest moves along
I've always found Booker somewhat underrated as a candidate (in terms of popularity/electability, not whether or not I like him - I really don't).
looking at Biden and Bernie's age preferences is pretty funny. a literal stairway to olds for Biden and reverse for Bernie
Warren won't drop out so Sanders will always be handicapped in the early primaries.
Trump won't drop out so Ivanka will always be handicapped in the primaries.
That's also true. But I feel like Bernie will be the far more stubborn of the two due to his history.
If Warren drops, her support gets split between Sanders and Biden (23% to Sanders, 19% to Biden).
If Bernie drops, his support gets evenly split between Biden (30%) and Warren (27%).
You can see the projected splits here.
2020 Democratic Primary
morningconsult.com
Thanks , but I don't understand this. Why would a Warren or sanders supporter go to Biden before one or the other?If Warren drops, her support gets split between Sanders and Biden (23% to Sanders, 19% to Biden).
If Bernie drops, his support gets evenly split between Biden (30%) and Warren (27%).
You can see the projected splits here.
2020 Democratic Primary
Because their support is not just policy based. Some of Bernie's supporters like him just because he's an old white man who speaks to the working class, exactly what Biden supporters like about him.
Some of Warren supporters like her probably because she doesn't use scary words like socialism, nor does she criticize Israel. She's more "establishment" than Bernie is.
There's a lot of people out there who don't get their politics from the internet or a place like this. Most voters don't actually vote based on policies but based on gut feelings like "do I like this person and the way they talk?"
That makes sense, just wish people would focus more on policy, that's all
I like Warren the most of the three, and Biden by far the least, but I'm not big on Bernie either. It's not just policy, but a perception of their ability to govern as well. Bernie is characteristically inflexible and unpragmatic. He has a history of alienating allies. And he surrounds himself with bad people. That may be a factor in why other people would gravitate to Biden instead of Sanders, even though I wouldn't.
The ability to govern is a big one for me. Policies are going to evolve and also get compromised before passing. But the ability to effectively lead the executive is a constant.
The "Bernie or bust" meme was born out of people in 2016 who just wanted anti-establishment, not any particular policy goal.
Another pitfall of treating politics as sports is that people pick their faves and ignore new or relevant information.
I have not seen a Joe Biden video clip since he was in office and just watched on this week. He looks oooooold. Bernie seems a decade younger than him.
I think Warren probably has the broadest appeal among the various groups that make up the dem/left base (IE, she is palatable, if not the #1 choice, to both hardcore bernie people and people who are rather not fond of him) but I don't know how well that would translate to the general election. The Pocahontas stuff doesn't seem to have much traction outside deplorable world so in that respect it isn't much of an issue, but I am still not sure I trust this country to actually elect a smart, bookish, kind of dorky lady to be president despite how good her policies and knowledge are.
