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New Fox Poll (A+ pollster): Warren surges to second, Sanders drops to 10%.
- Thread starter Autodidact
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Just sounds like you're saying voters are either "white liberals"/"white capitalists" or the black community. And I'm still confused about this "liberals splitting the vote" line of thinking you posted.
She's way too liberal for the crucial American swing states.
His policies haven't impacted the average American financially just yet and the economy is doing well. On top of that he's been bailing out smaller businesses over the last few months because of the trade war which no doubt will spread all over the states among the blue collared workers - Donald Trump has our back will be the takeaway thought even though he is to blame in the first place. Hes reducing troops in the Middle East and avoided getting into major conflicts so at the end of the day for the average person it's going to come down to voting for a boring type politician that's Harvard educated and incredibly liberal or the class clown hoping that the economy and the current state of affairs continue.
That's how I see things shaking up. Just remember Bush won a second term and he was a disaster for both lol
That's a big if for whether or not the economy is still good a year from now.
I don't know how you thought that. I also don't under why my original comment matters now. But I was talking about the liberals who are afraid of progressive candidates (Bernie/Warren), and try to create a narrative of division between the two candidates. After watching their last debate, it showed me that they will stand together to fight the enemies of progressive policy.
I thought that because you seemed to be setting up a binary.
Also is CNN now somehow "liberals"? They seemed to be the ones trying and failing to set up that fight.
Ah yes, because party unity must always matter when it comes to the left candidates despite centrists explicitly stating otherwise.
The Democratic Party is made of centrists and leftists, moderates and progressives, and everything in between. In 2020 we're going to be up against an actual white nationalist who will be able to win the electoral college with a deficit of 5 million votes and has the bonus of incumbency. I'm not saying we should forego a candidate like Warren to win the nomination, but we cannot risk losing independents in battleground states - Bernie could be the lever that does this were he to take the VP slot, as it could signal the appearance of a dramatic leftward shift for the party that not enough people are onboard with. Taking a more moderate candidate into the VP slot would ultimately be inconsequential and could help form a consensus among the party. Why do you think Obama selected someone like Biden?
I don't think Warren/Bernie is as useless as some of you make it out to be. Bernie is popular with the working class crowd because he uses the same populist rhetoric as Trump (working class upbringing, unions, healthcare) without all the racism.
Look at the deep blue around the Appalachias:
Then look at how Warren is really not good with that crowd:
I know you guys hate "white working class" rhetoric but Bernie (and to a lesser extent, Biden) is really the WWC candidate coming from the Democrats. Look at the donor heat map of NYC:
Liz and Buttigieg are strongest in Manhattan and the extremely gentrified parts of Brooklyn. The outer rims of Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx, where the working class live, even Staten Island, which went for Trump in 2016, all show a high level of support for Bernie.
I'm opposed to Warren/Bernie for the simple reason that having your VP die on you is a very bad idea. As I said, Bernie dying as President is not some kind of unmitigated disaster but a VP's purpose is to be the "backup", and not much more. Your backup should not have a higher chance of dying than whatever they're backing up.
And I really really really don't want President Pelosi.
Look at the deep blue around the Appalachias:
Then look at how Warren is really not good with that crowd:
I know you guys hate "white working class" rhetoric but Bernie (and to a lesser extent, Biden) is really the WWC candidate coming from the Democrats. Look at the donor heat map of NYC:
Liz and Buttigieg are strongest in Manhattan and the extremely gentrified parts of Brooklyn. The outer rims of Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx, where the working class live, even Staten Island, which went for Trump in 2016, all show a high level of support for Bernie.
I'm opposed to Warren/Bernie for the simple reason that having your VP die on you is a very bad idea. As I said, Bernie dying as President is not some kind of unmitigated disaster but a VP's purpose is to be the "backup", and not much more. Your backup should not have a higher chance of dying than whatever they're backing up.
And I really really really don't want President Pelosi.
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My feeling is Warren/Buttigieg.
You don't want all east coasters on the ticket, which is what you'd get with Warren and Bernie/Booker/Biden and you don't need/want Harris when Cali is already a lock and you already have a women on the ticket.
Buttigieg can help win the rustbelt and is a good advocate for progressive causes in a safe looking package with the ability to erode the religious voters on some of these midwest states.
Plus he and Warren are both academics and would probably click very well.
I know people will downplay him for being too inexperienced and for being gay, but the people who care about him being gay won't vote dem anyway. Those who complain about his inexperience will get the highly experienced Warren.
Buttigieg also gives Warren access to the military voters and gives an area where Trump can be attacked but can't respond without insulting the troops.
Just look how much Pence helped Trump win, having a religious midwesterner would be incredibly valuable to her ticket.
One candidate saying they'll eliminate private insurance is already an electoral deficit, both on the ticket, electoral suicide.
Two white old people from the north east.
Two of the most liberal Senators in congress.
Yeh nah. Terrible idea.
And even if not electoral disaster. Redundant ideologically.
It's not going to happen anyway, even the Dem Primary electorate is only split a third a third a third, moderate / somewhat liberal / very liberal.
Two white old people from the north east.
Two of the most liberal Senators in congress.
Yeh nah. Terrible idea.
And even if not electoral disaster. Redundant ideologically.
It's not going to happen anyway, even the Dem Primary electorate is only split a third a third a third, moderate / somewhat liberal / very liberal.
I know you meant redundant in a bad way but these are both positives to me. If I can sneak two socdems into the White House through the electorate I'm 100% going to try, lol.
It would actually probably defeat the purpose as you'd get two traditional Dems in their place in the Senate.
Too bad Bernie is sliding down, but since it's Warren, it's not necessarily a bad feeling. Still too early. I still want Bernie to win, and I still think he can get the nomination. Just not Biden or Harris please.
A hyperprogressive P/VP combo with a more moderate Senate could not be significantly different from a moderate P/VP combo with the current Senate.
Yes there's a little bit of self-sabotage but I think the gains are well worth it.
God I hope so.
But also this.
Disapproval rating and people voting against him are two different things. We basically need another massive wave of people voting in 2020 to offset the old, reliable GOP base that would vote in droves for Hitler if he had an (R) by his name.
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I don't know why people keep saying this, their coalitions are vastly different and both candidates are weak where the other is strong electorally speaking. kind of feels like the electability argument where people just sort of accept it
I feel like she got that out of the way as soon as possible, so by this point people stop caring about it. Not a bad strategy if that's what happened, since it's such a non-issue now.
Man, I remember watching that needle on election night 2016 just as vividly as I remember where I was on 9/11.
I wouldn't say "vastly", but Warren's base skews white/educated/rich while Bernie's base is more multi-cultural/some college/lower-middle class.
Reducing them both down to "old white NE" underestimates their synergy.
Buttigieg is a better partner on the Age & Gender axis.
Kamala is a better partner on the Race & Education axis.
Bernie is her only good partner on the Income axis.
Lol I remember people saying this stuff in 2006 about how America would never vote for a black or woman president. Yet the popular vote has gone to one of the two for the last 3 Presidential elections. It's clear the American public doesn't have a problem with voting for a woman or minority.
If anything, the fact that Trump is obsessed with the "Pocahontas" thing shows how little he has against her. It's like Obama's birth certificate, where the only people who care would never have voted for a Democrat in the first place.
It's great to see Warren hovering around 20% in several polls but it is clear she still has a huge issue with black voters - the needle is not moving as she sits at 8% among black voters in this poll. She needs to start having policy messaging that speaks directly to the black community - other polls shows that the issue with the hispanic community is similar if not worse... now she's mostly capturing the imagination of middle-aged whites..,
Why would he drop out when on aggregate he is tied with Warren for 2nd place and is ahead of her in other polls, has a huge pool of volunteers and individual donors, has higher favorability, stuck his neck out for the progressive platform when it was unpopular, and it's August 2019? Most of the candidates are running on their own framework of Bernie's controversial platform. Warren is supporting Medicare for All completely including ending private health insurance.
I don't see any of the leading candidates dropping out until Super Tuesday. There are like 22 other candidates who should be dropping out before Sanders.
If you look at favorability, Sanders and Biden are 10 points ahead of Warren. In National Polls for the general, they are both ahead of Warren in most polls. Sanders also has a more diverse group of supporters than Elizabeth Warren.
Warren is great and I would be happy to vote for her, but there is still plenty of time for this to play out.