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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Oct 30, 2017
4,172
With pure absence of navi from this keynote we can safely assume ps5 is 2020 . Late 2020. March is even out of question imo
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,009
To loosely quote her: "We're working with both Sony and Microsoft and they both have their own secret sauce that we're helping them do."
AMD’s CFO comments are also critical here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/c...nts_at_2018_deutsche/?st=JQPQBYAM&sh=863b7433

Semicustom (consoles):

Q: That provided a ton of great revenue; whether it was the Sony side, the Microsoft side; now you have a Chinese game counsel builder as well; but great revenues to allow you to have the operating and earnings to invest in these other areas. But how do you think about the semicustom, going forward. Is that something that should be declining over time as this generation of counsels has peaked out? Or are you optimistic that there is going to be refreshes and/or new versions of semicustom opportunities?

A: We like the semicustom model a lot. Semicustom model is one of those; as you observe the game consoles, you win the designs; some of the engine and the expenses gets depraved by the input from the customers; we go ahead and get the chip out; and after that, it’s a mutually exclusive deal where you can predict revenue. Going back to 2012, 2013 timeframes, we’ve had predictably somewhere between $1.5 billion to $2 billion of revenues coming from the game console business, both Sony and Microsoft and that has allowed us to invest in exactly the roadmap that is delivering right now. We like that business a lot. We are competing for the next generation product. But Sony and Microsoft have to make their decisions and then taken we'll take it from there. But we like it a lot from an overall standpoint.
 
Nov 7, 2017
189
I was thinking of maybe picking up an xbox one x but if the new console is basically confirmed to have backwards compatibility, I'm better off waiting!
 
Dec 29, 2018
50
As everything is still speculations at this point but if PS5 is 100% back compat with PS4 games then next gen is already decided with how big the user base for PS4 is.

How many will want to start their game library over by jumping to Xbox?
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,954
As everything is still speculations at this point but if PS5 is 100% back compat with PS4 games then next gen is already decided with how big the user base for PS4 is.

How many will want to start their game library over by jumping to Xbox?
Microsoft should sell Xbox to Sony.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,694
United Kingdom
As everything is still speculations at this point but if PS5 is 100% back compat with PS4 games then next gen is already decided with how big the user base for PS4 is.

How many will want to start their game library over by jumping to Xbox?
People that want more than one system maybe ? Also if MS get the games right, which they seem to be in the process of course correction, buying studio's ect, they could offer far better competition next gen.

They already have already shown they aren't messing around when it comes to hardware and services / features (X, GamePass and back compat)

Sony are going into next gen very strong but MS look set to be far more competitive. If they have the games, I'll certainly consider another Xbox, even though PS5 will be my main console.
 
Dec 29, 2018
50
People that want more than one system maybe ? Also if MS get the games right, which they seem to be in the process of course correction, buying studio's ect, they could offer far better competition next gen.

They already have already shown they aren't messing around when it comes to hardware and services / features (X, GamePass and back compat)

Sony are going into next gen very strong but MS look set to be far more competitive. If they have the games, I'll certainly consider another Xbox, even though PS5 will be my main console.
I own both systems was not taking shots at Xbox or anything as I love my Xbox One X.

But a lot of people out there only get one current console and those people will probably pick whatever their current platform of choice is now.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,332
So they are gonna be identical? What’s the point of making it with PS5 in mind if someone else can use it too? Or is each company just doing their modifications on it?
They won't be identical because of clock speed, CU and custom IP differences.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,009
I think ray tracing is an important technology, and it’s something we’re working on as well, both from a hardware and software standpoint,” Su said. “The most important thing, and that’s why we talk so much about the development community, is technology for technology’s sake is okay, but technology done together with partners who are fully engaged is really important.
https://www.pcworld.com/article/3332205/amd/amd-ceo-lisa-su-interview-ryzen-raytracing-radeon.html
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,694
United Kingdom
I own both systems was not taking shots at Xbox or anything as I love my Xbox One X.

But a lot of people out there only get one current console and those people will probably pick whatever their current platform of choice is now.
No worries. Tbh this is the first gen I've not picked up an Xbox. I still own my OG Xbox and 360, which I loved but Xbox One didn't do anything for me, under powered, over priced and the exclusives weren't for me.

The X would be something I might have picked up if next gen wasn't so close. With all the moves MS have been making recently, I'm very interested in jumping back in on Xbox though, as a 2nd home console, providing the games are there anyway.
 
Feb 10, 2018
10,012
If my calculations are correct Radeon 7 has 12.96tflops but has about 25 - 30% more performance then vega 64?

Also if Radeon 7 with 16gb is $699 now, how are next gen going to be priced only 23months away?
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,954
If my calculations are correct Radeon 7 has 12.96tflops but has about 25 - 30% more performance then vega 64?

Also if Radeon 7 with 16gb is $699 now, how are next gen going to be priced only 23months away?
They won't be based on Vega and I doubt they utilize HBM. I wouldn't look at the Radeon 7 as a sign of anything other than AMD is getting their 7nm process dialed in.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,009
If my calculations are correct Radeon 7 has 12.96tflops but has about 25 - 30% more performance then vega 64?
Double the ROPs, and over double the memory bandwidth. Both were suggested as holding Vega back on Vega 64. With over 1TB/s, it can read it’s entire memory 60 times a second (credit Tim Sweeney on that observation).

Navi should be even more performance per mm^2.

Also if Radeon 7 with 16gb is $699 now, how are next gen going to be priced only 23months away?
The 4 stacks of HBM2 could be up to half of the cost of the card. Also, it’s priced at $699 because it’s direct competitor RTX 2080 retails for $699 these days.
 
Feb 10, 2018
10,012
They won't be based on Vega and I doubt they utilize HBM. I wouldn't look at the Radeon 7 as a sign of anything other than AMD is getting their 7nm process dialed in.
Double the ROPs, and over double the memory bandwidth. Both were suggested as holding Vega back on Vega 64. With over 1TB/s, it can read it’s entire memory 60 times a second (credit Tim Sweeney on that observation).

Navi should be even more performance per mm^2.



The 4 stacks of HBM2 could be up to half of the cost of the card. Also, it’s priced at $699 because it’s direct competitor RTX 2080 retails for $699 these days.
Ahh I see,thanks.I was unsure on the memory being used in the Rad7.
 
Feb 10, 2018
10,012
What do you mean? Those are 12nm right?



What does he mean by respin?
I'm guessing, it needed a new approach.

Respin in that context means restarted, I think.
They started the Navi project, got the wheel spinning so to say.
But they needed to stop and start again.

It suggests they ran in major issues.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,009
What do you mean? Those are 12nm right?



What does he mean by respin?
A respin is a design revision. It’s hard to know the extent of the changes, but it sounds more significant than what you would call a metal mask change, where the base features stay the same and you just change how some things are connected or whether they’re enabled or disabled.
 
Oct 25, 2017
279
So if 7 nm Vega gets 13.5TF at 300 Watts, we are going to need to see a lot of efficiency improvements in Navi to get anywhere close to what people are predicting for next gen.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,009
So if 7 nm Vega gets 13.5TF at 300 Watts, we are going need to see a lot of efficiency improvements in Navi to get anywhere close to what people are predicting for next gen.
You get a lot more performance per watt if you don’t run the silicon to its limit.

The trade is 1/2 power for the same performance or 1.25x performance for the same power.

This is somewhat borne out by the Zen 2 performance demo. Zen 2 does the same score as 9900K in cinebench in 75W vs. 125W. But the 1/2 power number is directly from AMD, as is the 1.25x.
 
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Dec 14, 2017
2,420
Im seeing more and more people believing in Fall 2019 launches so I can't not think that the current consoles NEED a price drop, because they still cost too much. The One X is 500 and the Pro 400, how can they announce a new console when the 'old' one still cost the normal price of a launch console?

Even if the consoles are coming in 2020 (which is what I believe), when do you guys expect a price drop? I got my PS4 fat 2 months before the slim was announced so, even though I really enjoyed my PS4 during those 2 months a lot, I can't not think that maybe I could have waited a bit longer for the purchase...

I'd expect Sony doing a big sale on E3, those great PSVR bundles and 100 discount in all PS4s, and after that maybe drop 50 on all SKUs? Pro would be 350 and Slim 250, so they would "have space" for a 400-500 PS5.
 
Jun 12, 2018
661
In US and UK,yes.
But with full BC,ecosystem lock in will be very,very powerful tool going forward.
Sure but if MS keep adding value to game pass, release great hardware, and release top tier games then people will buy in. I’m not saying ecosystem doesn’t matter but if MS kills it, the world outside of US and UK would be stupid to ignore.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,181
London
People that want more than one system maybe ? Also if MS get the games right, which they seem to be in the process of course correction, buying studio's ect, they could offer far better competition next gen.

They already have already shown they aren't messing around when it comes to hardware and services / features (X, GamePass and back compat)

Sony are going into next gen very strong but MS look set to be far more competitive. If they have the games, I'll certainly consider another Xbox, even though PS5 will be my main console.
This is where I'm at as well. I'm a multi-console gamer, if Microsoft brings the goods then I'm in but I'll wait a year or two this time around.
 
Oct 25, 2017
279
You get a lot more performance per watt if you don’t run the silicon to its limit.

The trade is 1/2 power for the same performance or 1.25x performance for the same power.
That is fair, but die size is finite and limits how wide they go, Navi has to be big leap to approach 11+ TF
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,009
That is fair, but die size is finite and limits how wide they go, Navi has to be big leap to approach 11+ TF
Navi should be smaller than the 331mm^2 of Vega assuming it lacks INT4/8, half rate double precision and the huge memory bus.

AMD admitted compute and gaming GPUs could diverge, as they did with Nvidia. Though Turing is kind of a merger back into one.

Maybe it grows compared to Vega though. We’ll see, but they should have more flexibility if it’s a chiplet.
 
Oct 27, 2017
257
It was stated as 60cus in the conference,
Plus df's formula checks out on the vega 64, as shown on the video I linked.
I am not showing you Radeon 7. I am showing you MI60, which has 64 CUs. Did you even click on the link?

You didn't use the right formula. You might be assuming that when calculating Vega 64 the first step is 64 * 64 CUs. It is not. It is 64CUs * 64 SPs per CU, so when you are using 60 X 60 for Radeon 7, that's why you're getting the wrong value. Instead of 60 * 60 you should be doing 60 * 64. I'm just combining a couple of steps (the *64 and the * 2 into one step with the *128).

The full formula is XX CUs * 64 SPs per CU * 2 Flops per SP * XXXX MHz GPU clock. The 64 and 2 will be constant for any AMD GCN GPU
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,043
Im seeing more and more people believing in Fall 2019 launches so I can't not think that the current consoles NEED a price drop, because they still cost too much. The One X is 500 and the Pro 400, how can they announce a new console when the 'old' one still cost the normal price of a launch console?

Even if the consoles are coming in 2020 (which is what I believe), when do you guys expect a price drop? I got my PS4 fat 2 months before the slim was announced so, even though I really enjoyed my PS4 during those 2 months a lot, I can't not think that maybe I could have waited a bit longer for the purchase...

I'd expect Sony doing a big sale on E3, those great PSVR bundles and 100 discount in all PS4s, and after that maybe drop 50 on all SKUs? Pro would be 350 and Slim 250, so they would "have space" for a 400-500 PS5.
I'm also interested in if a price drop will occur and if we'll get "super slim" consoles this time around.
 
Oct 25, 2017
621
So an estimated 300W TDP for Radeon 7 and an estimated 13.8 tflops and it competes with a 2080 with no RTX what a fucking joke. AMD Vega is a very disappointing architecture.

Best pray Navi architecture improves perf per watt otherwise i'm still going for 10 tflops minimum for PS5 anything more will be icing on the cake.
 
Feb 10, 2018
10,012
I am not showing you Radeon 7. I am showing you MI60, which has 64 CUs. Did you even click on the link?

You didn't use the right formula. You might be assuming that when calculating Vega 64 the first step is 64 * 64 CUs. It is not. It is 64CUs * 64 SPs per CU, so when you are using 60 X 60 for Radeon 7, that's why you're getting the wrong value. Instead of 60 * 60 you should be doing 60 * 64. I'm just combining a couple of steps (the *64 and the * 2 into one step with the *128).

The full formula is XX CUs * 64 SPs per CU * 2 Flops per SP * XXXX MHz GPU clock. The 64 and 2 will be constant for any AMD GCN GPU
Yes, OK.
But radeon 7 has 60cus, so it won't be the same as the MI60.

So it's 60x64 x 2= 7680
7680 x 1800 = 13824000 ÷ 1million
=13.82tflops?
 
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Feb 19, 2018
4,707
A respin is a design revision. It’s hard to know the extent of the changes, but it sounds more significant than what you would call a metal mask change, where the base features stay the same and you just change how some things are connected or whether they’re enabled or disabled.
Remember when sources said that Sony was in deep with Navi and insinuated that design goals had changed at some point which delayed things?
 
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