This is sadly the truth.Ray tracing won't make it to either one of the next-gen consoles at launch, but it could work as a selling point for a mid gen upgrade.
MS is holding something that's for sure. But silent? Did you miss all that info from them and all those leaks?
Is Zen 2 a possibility at this point? Or is the expectation that the CPUs for these systems will be based on Zen+?
The main prediction why it would've been Zen+, but not Zen2 were the LLVM commits for Zen by sony API programmers. And many thought that if Zen2 is significantly different it may mean, that the code won't be compatible. But according to more recent finds they are utilizing new AVX instructions which are only supported by AMD in Zen2Is Zen 2 a possibility at this point? Or is the expectation that the CPUs for these systems will be based on Zen+?
According to Epic Games, next-gen consoles won't have hardware ray tracing acceleration. They should be already working on porting UE for next-gen, and I guess they would be one of the 1st devs to know stuff about new consoles. It also corresponds with logical assumptions concerning die sizes of APUs, so I don't have any reasons to not believe them.
The main prediction why it would've been Zen+, but not Zen2 were the LLVM commits for Zen by sony API programmers. And many thought that if Zen2 is significantly different it may mean, that the code won't be compatible. But according to more recent finds they are utilizing new AVX instructions which are only supported by AMD in Zen2
Galyonkin pretty explicitly said this in his recent podcast https://kdicast.com/ He also confirmed that originally Sony planned for 2019 release, but good sales allowed/forced them to delay the release.
https://reviews.llvm.org/D55603Sony wouldn't make commits for a processor that hasn't been publicly disclosed, and AVX512 support for Zen2 has yet to be confirmed by AMD.
Sorry, I'm not familiar with this person. What is his track record?Galyonkin pretty explicitly said this in his recent podcast https://kdicast.com/ He also confirmed that originally Sony planned for 2019 release, but good sales allowed/forced them to delay the release.
https://reviews.llvm.org/D55603
I know that AMD did not confirm it, but this kinda looks like a sort of confirmation for me.
Actually, more of his recent works is regarding AVX512. https://reviews.llvm.org/p/RKSimon/
Assuming AMD is the supplier for next-gen consoles, what other CPU potentially have AVX512 support.
Also huge respect for your awesome post about known info regarding nex-gen! Awesome read!
He is Director of Publishing Strategy at Epic GamesSorry, I'm not familiar with this person. What is his track record?
SteamSpy. And he works for Epic. That new epic store was his project.Sorry, I'm not familiar with this person. What is his track record?
Especially on the RTX 2060 - and probably so on the next generation - expect games with ray tracing to look like current gen games at low resolution with ray tracing on. Unless AMD has some magic chip ready.I believe ray tracing for next gen consoles is totally possible if Navi architecture has this feature.
In two days the RTX 2060 will launch. A $349 GPU with ray tracing.
Are we expecting that next gen consoles in 2020 will have a worst GPU? I am not.
AMD confirmed at CES that they are working on ray tracing so it depends on how that will progress.
They also have Fire Rays technology in their pro GPUs.AMD confirmed at CES that they are working on ray tracing so it depends on how that will progress.
He also confirmed that originally Sony planned for 2019 release, but good sales allowed/forced them to delay the release.
SteamSpy. And he works for Epic. That new epic store was his project.
This still doesn't make sense to me. If the plan was 2019 and we believe specs are for the most part locked down 2 years out per Cerny then how could Sony know in late 2017 that PS4 sales would hold up so well? I really can't believe they have a finished console design that they'll now sit on it for a year or re-design it.
Apart from the above, I also don't see how it makes business sense to wait for the current product sales to reduce significantly before introducing the next product. Keeping up the momentum is the aim, right?
They wouldn't have known then, but they can pump the brakes any time prior to reveal. It lets software mature and their current hardware generates a good profit. You'd only maintain your launch in those circumstances if you were worried about your competitor
Sony has never been an outright first to launch in any generation, so it's not as if this is uncharacteristic of them.Delaying the reveal I could believe but not launch given the long lead times and logistics unless a significant issue comes up. As for software it has been said many games have been in dev for a long time now (third parties were much more tentative last gen to commit?)
Also with Google, Microsoft and now Amazon on the horizon I would think Sony would want to launch sooner rather than later...Especially if 2019 was/is their plan and the others are 2020. Delaying to launch alongside all this additional competition seems like a bad idea.
Thanks. Seems an odd thing for him to be privy to given his position. Or that he would share it given his official capacity with Epic.
Software includes more than games though.Delaying the reveal I could believe but not launch given the long lead times and logistics unless a significant issue comes up. As for software it has been said many games have been in dev for a long time now (third parties were much more tentative last gen to commit?)
Also with Google, Microsoft and now Amazon on the horizon I would think Sony would want to launch sooner rather than later...Especially if 2019 was/is their plan and the others are 2020. Delaying to launch alongside all this additional competition seems like a bad idea.
Thanks. Seems an odd thing for him to be privy to given his position. Or that he would share it given his official capacity with Epic.
This still doesn't make sense to me. If the plan was 2019 and we believe specs are for the most part locked down 2 years out per Cerny then how could Sony know in late 2017 that PS4 sales would hold up so well? I really can't believe they have a finished console design that they'll now sit on it for a year or re-design it.
Apart from the above, I also don't see how it makes business sense to wait for the current product sales to reduce significantly before introducing the next product. Keeping up the momentum is the aim, right?
They wouldn't have known then, but they can pump the brakes any time prior to reveal. It lets software mature and their current hardware generates a good profit. You'd only maintain your launch in those circumstances if you were worried about your competitor.
Sony has never been an outright first to launch in any generation, so it's not as if this is uncharacteristic of them.
I don't think so. As it has been said, this stuff has been determined beforehand. While a delay can give them a chance to improve some things, I don't think it would allow one of them to get a big advantage over the other.If the hardware has been picked out for that long and the delay to 2020 is for sales/software reasons I would expect MS to have even are larger advantage on the hardware front. Hopefully Sony atleast gets 6months head start, like first 1/2 of 2020 and not fall.
I'd really like PS5 to be beast of a system, but fanboyism aside games sell consoles, not TFlops. You can clearly see it with Xbox One X.True, but then have they ever faced 3 such juggernauts in competition at the same time? That has to have them slightly shook!
Ray tracing won't make it to either one of the next-gen consoles at launch, but it could work as a selling point for a mid gen upgrade.
The one X is doing rather well, I think. At least in the US the horsepower definitely works well as a selling point. At the beginning of current gen it also was a big factor, even though that was also aided by weak exclusive line ups on both sides, so horsepower became the main distinguishing factor. I could see that repeat next gen when exclusives are weak or sparse right out the gate.I'd really like PS5 to be beast of a system, but fanboyism aside games sell consoles, not TFlops. You can clearly see it with Xbox One X.
Yeah, we're potentially look at a very smooth and clean 2020 launch with both the hardware and the software ready. And I think that the lineup for both parties will be stronger than it was in 2013. It's going to be fun.Right, it isn't hard to believe there are changes that occur as they close in on reveal and launch. It would be pretty hard to keep things set all the way to the very end given fluctuations over time. For example, the PS4 remaining this strong this far into the gen gives Sony more wiggle room to prep PS5 related things. More prep means a better launch and a better launch means potentially better reception. It all works out.
Isn't ray tracing, at least currently, still way to expensive for the kind of visual improvements it actually delivers, like, any responsible dev would use the horsepower this takes for other things, with more visual impact.
For example, no doubt that ray traced reflections look better than cube maps and screen space reflections, but the visual improvements they bring stand in no relation to the cost at which they come.
The one X is doing rather well, I think. At least in the US the horsepower definitely works well as a selling point. At the beginning of current gen it also was a big factor, even though that was also aided by weak exclusive line ups on both sides, so horsepower became the main distinguishing factor. I could see that repeat next gen when exclusives are weak or sparse right out the gate.
Google, amazon, Verizon, MS, and Sony all want in on game streaming. Who's more likely to succeed— the ones actually in gaming already or those trying to break in? Think of all the failed ventures google has abandoned. They'll cut their losses at the first sight of hardship.True, but then have they ever faced 3 such juggernauts in competition at the same time? That has to have them slightly shook!
well those leaks are more than codenames. For example a new Xbox is supposed to launch this year similar to the S but with no disc drive (and probably smaller)What some code names? We know as much about the next Xbox then we do the next PS. Unless you can point to something exact about the specs and features of the next Xbox a few names of projects means very little. Especially on the likelyhood those plans are fluid and may change. I mean haven't we heard from multiple sources that Sony is planning to integrate more VR features directly into the system itself? Are those controlled releases? Is there something comprable from those so called "leaks" on the MS side that gives us some tidbit about inside hardware features? I am just curious because to me a few project names is fluff and means very little.
Google, amazon, Verizon, MS, and Sony all want in on game streaming. Who's more likely to succeed— the ones actually in gaming already or those trying to break in? Think of all the failed ventures google has abandoned. They'll cut their losses at the first sight of hardship.
If MS are happy to reveal their new Xbox(es) at E3 this year, ~15 months before launch, which seems possible given the current level of Xbox chatter and the X1X reveal, and if there will be little significant difference between PS5 and X2, there seems no benefit to Sony waiting to announce similar specs, and perhaps a benefit to announcing them early. I'm beginning to wonder if we might see a PS Meeting pre-E3 this year, even for a late 2020 launch (although I'm thinking early 2020 is more likely).
That is what it is all about really. I think we'll all be able to endure waiting for just 1 more year after 2019 if it means we get some great console launches.Yeah, we're potentially look at a very smooth and clean 2020 launch with both the hardware and the software ready. And I think that the lineup for both parties will be stronger than it was in 2013. It's going to be fun.
It will just depend on how Sony starts out the gate. If Sony doesn't mess up, it will continue to be like the PS1 and PS4 gens. MS can improve their place in the market (possibly get into that 60-70M tier) but I think Sony will continue producing 100M+ selling consoles either way.I think Sony will be fine. They probably won't have a PS4 like gen but they'll still be fine. I sorta expect more of a 360/PS3 gen where it's more even in terms of units sold.
Mainly just because I don't see Microsoft fumbling so bad on this reveal.
Yeah. It's also interesting the both of those franchises skipped out on this gen so the jumps from the last games will be huge.It's just exciting thinking about the tech in these consoles. Zen 2 CPUs, 16+ GB of GDDR6, and 10+ TF Navi GPUs. These specs will be the baseline for game development going forward. It's crazy to think about what games like The Elder Scrolls VI or Grand Theft Auto VI could be like if they're being built from the ground up for these types of specs. We're not just talking 4k 60 FPS gaming, we're talking about next level immersion, simulation, and complexity.
The bold is what has me hyped. The physics and interactions all coming together. I can already imagine it in my head and I think it will make next gen pretty special.It's just exciting thinking about the tech in these consoles. Zen 2 CPUs, 16+ GB of GDDR6, and 10+ TF Navi GPUs. These specs will be the baseline for game development going forward. It's crazy to think about what games like The Elder Scrolls VI or Grand Theft Auto VI could be like if they're being built from the ground up for these types of specs. We're not just talking 4k 60 FPS gaming, we're talking about next level immersion, simulation, and complexity.
There is no good way to do it. There is the bad way, and less bad way. Best way is to not do it at all. Frankly i am still of the belief that the 2 SKU is not happening at all, just because i consider it a stupid buisness decision. The only people who want it are ERA members who want an expensive console and had a mistaken belief that they wouldn't be hampered by the much weaker SKU that would end up being the baseline.If MS does do multiple SKUs, would they release on the same day? Or is there a better way to do it?
Based on inflation rates, a $400 purchase in 2013 is $431 now, so $500 seems pretty feasible. Still, I imagine the optics may be a challenge from a marketing perspective.
Ah yeah that's a good point that didn't cross my mind.Inflation and pricing index increases without equivalent wage increases still means $500 is even more out of reach for people.