Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
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Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,092
Here are some of Shawn Layden's words in the Game Informer interview today that may or may not imply something regarding possible BC plans?

"What is it about having a streaming service like PlayStation Now that differentiates it from your other gaming experiences. Certainly I think one of the big benefits of PlayStation Now is its ability, on my PS4, to play the PS3 catalogue. One of the terrible circumstances of our gaming industry is that every time we launch a new console technology, we sort of put the last generation to bed. That doesn’t occur in movies. That doesn’t occur in music, but it occurs all the time in games. But PS Now is a way where all of a sudden you can bring back to life an entire PS3 catalogue though your PS4, through the streaming technology. It’s kind of new, kind of different. You can see what that would suggest for the future, so I think that was a good experiment. Maybe we didn’t explain it enough to really illustrate why it should be important to you."
I hope by "You can see what that would suggest for the future, so I think that was a good experiment" he means that streaming will be around for BC but the games can be played locally too.
 

Colbert

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,618
Germany
I hope by "You can see what that would suggest for the future, so I think that was a good experiment" he means that streaming will be around for BC but the games can be played locally too.
Tbh, this doesn't sound that way. It sounds about you can still stream those games for extra money even you own the disc, just like today. But I hope I am wrong ... (regarding PS3 BC, I don't think they scrap PS4 BC on console, that would be a horrible message)
 
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Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,092
Tbh, this doesn't sound that way. It sounds about you can still stream those games for extra money even you own the disc, just like today. But I hope I am wrong ...
Well yeah, but I'm trying to be optimistic. It certainly reads like he thinks streaming of older titles is the way to go but I try not to say anything negative about Sony because the dogpiling isn't worth it.
 

Tonky

The Fallen
Dec 19, 2017
4,708
His first act as President should be to schedule a PS5 reveal for February 20th, 2019.
 

console lover

Member
Feb 19, 2018
5,296
Like he just came out of nowhere and wasn’t in charge of PS Europe since PS1 days...
That's in regards to his backwards compatibility comments. Which who knows, maybe if he was in charge years ago it would mean something or nothing. Who knows. Generally speaking, if someone has that kind of succesful track record they should expect to get promoted
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,092
That's in regards to his backwards compatibility comments. Which who knows, maybe if he was in charge years ago it would mean something or nothing. Who knows. Generally speaking, if someone has that kind of succesful track record they should expect to get promoted
Well he's had a few PR blunders and that's certainly an area that folks tend to hold onto around these parts, just ask Penello lol. I think Jim is going to work out fine though. Dude has been around for a long time doing good work.
 

ebreda

Member
Oct 30, 2017
325
Florianópolis, Brazil
To be fair the only game which runs at 4K with good fps on the X it's RDR2 in my memories. The other AAA you mentioned are not even 4k native and most lean to run less stable on the X. So if you want to use this argue against Cerny, it seems indeed he was right.
And speaking about CBR, use RDR2 as example how the CBR is a "failure" when it's the only a single game with an awful implementation and most of the developers prefer to use it, again prove how Cerny is on the point about many stuff related to future gpu tech.
How you are able to say this in a world where Forza 7 , Forza Horizon 3 and 4, Halo 5 , Assassin's Creed Origins and Odyssey exists is baffling. They all run at 4k natively with stable performance on a 6tf machine.

And if RDR2 can make it 4k and stable performance, Cerny's theory is proven wrong , objectively.
 

Colbert

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,618
Germany
How you are able to say this in a world where Forza 7 , Forza Horizon 3 and 4, Halo 5 , Assassin's Creed Origins and Odyssey exists is baffling. They all run at 4k natively with stable performance on a 6tf machine.

And if RDR2 can make it 4k and stable performance, Cerny's theory is proven wrong , objectively.
And Metro Exodus ....
 

console lover

Member
Feb 19, 2018
5,296
How you are able to say this in a world where Forza 7 , Forza Horizon 3 and 4, Halo 5 , Assassin's Creed Origins and Odyssey exists is baffling. They all run at 4k natively with stable performance on a 6tf machine.

And if RDR2 can make it 4k and stable performance, Cerny's theory is proven wrong , objectively.
Does every single x1 enhanced game run 4k 30fps solid? Do even three quarters do that?
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,092
Does every single x1 enhanced game run 4k 30fps solid? Do even three quarters do that?
Cerny was right in stating that you'd need 8TF to have all current gen games render in 4K across the board IMO. However that poster was flat-out wrong in saying that only 1 game on XB1X runs at 4K with a "good" fps. I don't even own any flavor of XB1 and I know that's a lie.
 
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ImGumbyDammit

Member
Nov 25, 2018
127
Cerny was right in stating that you'd need 8TF to have all current gen games render in 4K across the board IMO. However that poster was flat-out wrong in saying that only 1 game on XB1X runs at 4K with a "good" fps. I don't even own any flavor of XB1 and I know that's a lie.
What does that mean, across the board? I certainly don't believe that 8TF would give across the board 4k. Obviously more 4K gaming than the X. But, developers will easily find ways to use more than 8TF and blow up that Cerney quote. Developers will sacrifice something for games to play at 4K across the board or just checkerboard again to meet those fps goals. Just like 6TF could be across the board if developers wanted to sacrifice even more then 8TF would require. It will always be a matter of what you want to sacrifice to get there. If RDR2 can do 4K on the X every game should - but that is not the case is it? and it won't be for a 8TF based console as well.
 

eathdemon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,058
What does that mean, across the board? I certainly don't believe that 8TF would give across the board 4k. Obviously more 4K gaming than the X. But, developers will easily find ways to use more than 8TF and blow up that Cerney quote. Developers will sacrifice something for games to play at 4K across the board or just checkerboard again to meet those fps goals. Just like 6TF could be across the board if developers wanted to sacrifice even more then 8TF would require. It will always be a matter of what you want to sacrifice to get there. If RDR2 can do 4K on the X every game should - but that is not the case is it? and it won't be for a 8TF based console as well.
thats the thing a 8tfp gpu = a 2rfps gpu at 1080p, hell even 12tfps only = a 3 tfp gpu at 1080p. I know I am in the monority on these fourms, but I will take preformce over rez any day of the week. yeah I know 4k sells boxes, oh well.
 

BradGrenz

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
861
What does that mean, across the board? I certainly don't believe that 8TF would give across the board 4k. Obviously more 4K gaming than the X. But, developers will easily find ways to use more than 8TF and blow up that Cerney quote. Developers will sacrifice something for games to play at 4K across the board or just checkerboard again to meet those fps goals. Just like 6TF could be across the board if developers wanted to sacrifice even more then 8TF would require. It will always be a matter of what you want to sacrifice to get there. If RDR2 can do 4K on the X every game should - but that is not the case is it? and it won't be for a 8TF based console as well.
He was giving a rough estimate of what you would need, compute wise, to take most PS4 games that run at 1080p and get them running at native 4K. That's all. It wasn't a rule. It wasn't a promise. It wasn't a projection of any actual hardware. It was just a way to say quadrupling your resolution roughly quadruples your shading requirements.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
Oct 27, 2017
434
Seattle
We're not talking about an exponential increase in CPU perf, more a scaling factor of 2-3x.
What magnitude of increase would make it exponential? Hint: you can’t meaningfully extrapolate an exponential curve from two points. If CPU increases even by a factor of 1.01x each generation then the growth is exponential. It’s just that the exponent is small. Growth must be a fixed difference (eg: +1TF per generation in a GPU) for it to be linear. More complex curves that are not simply linear or exponential growth are likely quadratic or a higher order function.

Sorry, but a pet peeve of mine because the term “exponential” gets misused all the time. I had to correct it in a document headed for VP review at work just the other day.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,632
He was giving a rough estimate of what you would need, compute wise, to take most PS4 games that run at 1080p and get them running at native 4K. That's all. It wasn't a rule. It wasn't a promise. It wasn't a projection of any actual hardware. It was just a way to say quadrupling your resolution roughly quadruples your shading requirements.
Yep .
I don't know why some people are taking what he said to be some hard rule .
We can have 4k or 60fps right now it just depends on what the devs want to do .
Him giving a rough estimate is all it was .
 
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chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,945
Barcelona Spain
How you are able to say this in a world where Forza 7 , Forza Horizon 3 and 4, Halo 5 , Assassin's Creed Origins and Odyssey exists is baffling. They all run at 4k natively with stable performance on a 6tf machine.

And if RDR2 can make it 4k and stable performance, Cerny's theory is proven wrong , objectively.
No Cerny wins, not all 1080p PS4 game are 4k on Xbox One X. Even if it was one game non 4k he wins and there is tons of non 4k game on Xbox One X.

And this is why he is the lead architect of Playstation hardware and not someone talking nonsense in resetera forum.
 
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Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,092
What does that mean, across the board? I certainly don't believe that 8TF would give across the board 4k. Obviously more 4K gaming than the X. But, developers will easily find ways to use more than 8TF and blow up that Cerney quote. Developers will sacrifice something for games to play at 4K across the board or just checkerboard again to meet those fps goals. Just like 6TF could be across the board if developers wanted to sacrifice even more then 8TF would require. It will always be a matter of what you want to sacrifice to get there. If RDR2 can do 4K on the X every game should - but that is not the case is it? and it won't be for a 8TF based console as well.
I'm confused. He was speaking about what it would take to get the current PS4 games on the base hardware to render at full 4K. His estimate was 8TF. It had nothing to do with whatever it is you're talking about.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,210
United Kingdom
What magnitude of increase would make it exponential? Hint: you can’t meaningfully extrapolate an exponential curve from two points. If CPU increases even by a factor of 1.01x each generation then the growth is exponential. It’s just that the exponent is small. Growth must be a fixed difference (eg: +1TF per generation in a GPU) for it to be linear. More complex curves that are not simply linear or exponential growth are likely quadratic or a higher order function.

Sorry, but a pet peeve of mine because the term “exponential” gets misused all the time. I had to correct it in a document headed for VP review at work just the other day.
I struggled to find another word to explain what I wanted to say, so “exponential” increased seemed the most fitting. I know it’s not technically correct, but then few words used in the common internet poster lexicon actually are.

You knew what I meant anyway :-P
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,945
Barcelona Spain
We're not talking about an exponential increase in CPU perf, more a scaling factor of 2-3x.

If you take a current gen game that is CPU bound (and many are), double the framerate, then you only have 0 to 1x jaguar compute performance to leverage for increased simulation complexity. It's nowhere near as large an increase as you seem to be suggesting.

The issue with performance options is that for CPU bound games, running at twice the framerate isn't even possible for a game designed for 30fps. In which case, the mere act of choosing to include performance mode doesn't come for free but requires you to specifically design your game for 60fps then scale back for 30fps play. If a game doesn't even benefit all that much from 60fps, then sacrificing your perf. budget to just to provide an option starts to make less and less sense.

Also the game genres you cite as being 60fps have generally been 60fps every gen since forever, primarily because it makes most sense for many games in those genres.

If anything I'd argue a much lower proportion of games this and last gen are 60fps, as in the PS2 generation and before 60fps was pretty much ubiquitous across all games.

I understand why some gamers want 60fps, but adding in the option doesn't come without a cost, be that a reduction in the scope of the dev's vision for the game, a simplification mechanics or reduction in simulation complexity, i.e. all the sacrifices required to design for 60fps from the outset.

I think we'll have to see, because we may have reached a plateau in CPU computational demand for games in the most popular genres, in which case the extra perfornance Zen brings can more or less provide 60fps "for free" (which is what I think you're assuming).

I personally suspect we're not there yet, and devs will have been cultivating ideas for the last 6yrs that they've been itching to unleash but haven't been able to do so because of the current gen weak CPUs. This turning out to be the case, I wouldn't want devs to rein in their ambition for the sake of 60fps that doesn't matter to games in many genres.

Using vector Zen2 it will probably more be a factor of 4 to 6 maybe more if they use AVX 512 the ISA is better too. It depends of the task.
 

M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,564
People are STILL talking about Cerny's 8TF comment?
This is the original quote from the October 2016 interview:
「4Kでネイティブにレンダリングするなら、個人的な試算ですが、最低でも8TFLOPSは必要になるでしょう」とサーニー氏は言う。それは少なくとも、今年リーズナブルな価格で使える技術ではない。「一目で違いがわかるパワーアップ版PS4」とするために、PS4 Proは、非常に多くの工夫の元に作られているのだ。

Google Translate:
"If you render natively in 4K, but is a personal estimate, 8TFLOPS at a minimum will be necessary," said Cerny. It is not at least a technology that can be used at reasonable prices this year. To make it "power up version PS 4 which shows the difference at a glance", PS 4 Pro is made based on a great deal of ingenuity.
The thing is, we don't know what he based that number on, really. I'm sure we all agree that he's knowledgeable enough to not have just made it up out of nowhere. But at the end of the day he phrased it as a "personal estimate" and we can't really take it as absolute final word on this matter.

However, I do think that his BC patent can explain the logic behind the number. It seems that the BC solution is designed so that it would run every PS4 game on a PS5 exactly as a real PS4 would run it with no additional work required on the game's code. If the same approach is applied to native 4K, the 8TF number makes more sense.

I'm not a fan of using that number to speculate on next gen specs, tbh, but since people do anyway... if you assume that he and his team were already working on the PS5 around that time, it would make sense they'd target a lot more than 8TF for next gen. OR they will need huge architectural improvements to get much better actual, real life game performance per TF.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,963
It was just a contextual quote about brute forcing 4k vs the 'smart' solution that they partly customsed the ps4 pro GPU to support - i.e checkerboarding.
 

Barsi

alt account
Banned
Jan 21, 2019
350
How you are able to say this in a world where Forza 7 , Forza Horizon 3 and 4, Halo 5 , Assassin's Creed Origins and Odyssey exists is baffling. They all run at 4k natively with stable performance on a 6tf machine.

And if RDR2 can make it 4k and stable performance, Cerny's theory is proven wrong , objectively.
7 games in a universe of 500 games.

Come on son...
 

christocolus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,638
How you are able to say this in a world where Forza 7 , Forza Horizon 3 and 4, Halo 5 , Assassin's Creed Origins and Odyssey exists is baffling. They all run at 4k natively with stable performance on a 6tf machine.

And if RDR2 can make it 4k and stable performance, Cerny's theory is proven wrong , objectively.
Lol. I still remember the DF thread with RDR2's 4K analysis. It was hilarious cos prior to that analysis many here had written it off as a foolish rumor saying the 1X wasn't capable of running that game at 4K.
And Metro Exodus ....
Agreed.. and there are more titles listed in the Xbox 1X enhanced thread. I remember DF saying MS did a stress test of all major 3rd party game engines on the 1X prototype hardware during it's development and that's one of the reasons they produced such a capable machine. I hope they do same with all versions of Scarlett.
 
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Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
5,036
what does running current gen games at 4k has anything to do with running next gen games at 4k?cerny said u need 8 TF to make sure u can run all current gen games at 4k .

this has no bearing for next gen games and PS5 or XB2
 

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
5,036
.. Agreed.. and there are more titles listed in the Xbox 1X enhanced thread.
Cernys comment was about running most the current gen games at 4k not just select few. so if XB1x can run 30% of its library at 4k with 6 TF , definitely what cerny said is correct that u would need 8 TF to run majority of the titles at 4k.
 
Jan 17, 2019
732
Lol. I still remember the DF thread with RDR2's 4K analysis. It was hilarious cos prior to that analysis many here had written it off as a foolish rumor saying the 1X wasn't capable of running that game at 4K.
Agreed.. and there are more titles listed in the Xbox 1X enhanced thread. I remember DF saying MS did a stress test of all major 3rd party game engines on the 1X prototype hardware during it's development and that's one of the reasons they produced such a capable machine. I hope they do same with all versions of Scarlett.
And yet X1X can't run games in 4k with UE4, some games in Frostbite engine and games using AnvilNext engine
 

Fastidioso

Member
Nov 3, 2017
2,459
Cerny was right in stating that you'd need 8TF to have all current gen games render in 4K across the board IMO. However that poster was flat-out wrong in saying that only 1 game on XB1X runs at 4K with a "good" fps. I don't even own any flavor of XB1 and I know that's a lie.
I said the only AAA games with stable fps in 4k with demanding scenario it's just RDR2 from my memory. And it's not like a single game could change the whole narrative around the 4k. Hitman series or TR (the last wasn't even native to be fair) showed unstable fps too often. I never talked of first party games...and it baffling me you continue to spit out AAA titles which are not absolutely 4k like AC series (should be around 1600-1800p). No offence but it seems pretty clear you are just repeating the marketing spin of the real 4k machine by MS more than provide data.
Cerny has said a simple math. If we consider a ps4 a 1080p hardware, you need around 4x times is power to offer 4k with the same graphic setting. The same said to another AMD insider. It's a rough estimation at the end and nothing of too complicated to presume.
 
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christocolus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,638
And yet X1X can't run games in 4k with UE4 and some Frostbite engine
Lol. How does your comment validate anything? The One X is far more capable than what you all thought. even DF have been pleasantly surprised by some stuff the 1X has been able to pull off on some demanding titles or are you suggesting the PS4 is a better 4k machine? How does your comment prove us wrong?
How you are able to say this in a world where Forza 7 , Forza Horizon 3 and 4, Halo 5 , Assassin's Creed Origins and Odyssey exists is baffling. They all run at 4k natively with stable performance on a 6tf machine.

And if RDR2 can make it 4k and stable performance, Cerny's theory is proven wrong , objectively
And Metro Exodus ...
When there are ambitious titles like RDR2 , Division 2 , Metro, Gears 4 , FH4 etc all running @ a native 4k? I don't even know what to tell you.
 
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Jan 17, 2019
732
Lol. How does your comment validate anything? The One X is far more capable than what you all thought. DF has mentioned this so many times or ate you suggesting PS4 is a better 4k machine? How does your comment prove us wrong?
Where the fuck i said that PS4 Pro is better 4k machine?
And your comment does validate anything. LOL. Vast majority of games on X1X ARE NOT in native 4k. ONLY THAT FACT PROVES YOU WRONG! Cheers!
 
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