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When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
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Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
If Ms release 2 sku's and Sony 1 ...is like 100% or you think that Sony follow Ms just in the premium market?
If they release 2 and 2 sku's or 1 & 1 ...sure more than 50% is wishful thinking as you said

Since we have no information other than unsubstantiated rumour, the chances are 50%.

Until we have actual verifiable facts and info on the specs, there's simply no way to know either way.
 

Toni

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
1,983
Orlando, Florida
Apple finally cave in to the multiple product models and Samsung followed suit with the Apple way by introducing 3 Galaxy S10 models this year instead of their usual 2. Its working out for them and offers good alternatives for consumers.

I really do think in 2020, Sony and Microsoft will follow suit with 2 models. Times are changing.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
Apple finally cave in to the multiple product models and Samsung followed suit with the Apple way by introducing 3 Galaxy S10 models this year instead of their usual 2. Its working out for them and offers good alternatives for consumers.

I really do think in 2020, Sony and Microsoft will follow suit with 2 models. Times are changing.
Also Xiaomi and Huawei
More time pass more I suspect that we will see two sku's from both Ms and Sony
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
Or blur the lines between this gen and next. That rumored disk-less Xbox One S might be a super cheap way to boost #s of not just h/w but GP.
I actually want MS to do this, just so we can finally put the whole idea to bed when the discless console fails to sell.

The discdrive doesn't cost anything at all really. Any belief that it would be much cheaper, doesn't add up with reality. But we have had this argument already many times, so I will leave it at that.
 

M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,252
If Ms release 2 sku's and Sony 1 ...is like 100% or you think that Sony follow Ms just in the premium market?
If they release 2 and 2 sku's or 1 & 1 ...sure more than 50% is wishful thinking as you said
TheThreadsThatBindUs is completely correct. We have no information, therefore it is indeed 50/50.
You assume that in the case of 2 Xbox SKUs, the upper one MUST outperform the PS5 specs-wise. However, there is no evidence for that to be a given.
It is equally likely that they will have an indistinguishable performance envelop. There is also no credible reason why the possibility that both will fall below the PS5 should be entirely discounted.

XB Pro>PS5>XB Arcade
XB Pro>PS5=XB Arcade
PS5>XB Pro>XB Arcade
PS5=XB Pro>XB Arcade

Given what we know, which is fuck all because all the rumors have been weak and since our conjecture is still severely limited due to the fact that we need Navi performance figures (which they wouldn't actually solve this part of the mystery and only tell us about the achievable performance range)... The scenarios above are all equally possible.
 

Bloodcore

Member
Mar 24, 2018
137
The discdrive doesn't cost anything at all really. Any belief that it would be much cheaper, doesn't add up with reality. But we have had this argument already many times, so I will leave it at that.
I believe the optical drive for the PS4 Pro cost around 20-25$, I imagine it will be at least 30-35$ if they decide to upgrade to a Ultra HD Blu-ray drive on the next-gen consoles.

A regular Blu-ray drive today would probably cost them around 10-15$.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
TheThreadsThatBindUs is completely correct. We have no information, therefore it is indeed 50/50.
You assume that in the case of 2 Xbox SKUs, the upper one MUST outperform the PS5 specs-wise. However, there is no evidence for that to be a given.
It is equally likely that they will have an indistinguishable performance envelop. There is also no credible reason why the possibility that both will fall below the PS5 should be entirely discounted.

XB Pro>PS5>XB Arcade
XB Pro>PS5=XB Arcade
PS5>XB Pro>XB Arcade
PS5=XB Pro>XB Arcade

Given what we know, which is fuck all because all the rumors have been weak and since our conjecture is still severely limited due to the fact that we need Navi performance figures (which they wouldn't actually solve this part of the mystery and only tell us about the achievable performance range)... The scenarios above are all equally possible.

sure PS5 can be more powerful than Xbox pro .....but there's a price to pay for that. This would mean Leaving free market for a Ms console that cost 100 or more dollar less...(Ms second sku?) This would be more stupid than PS3 at 600$ and you can be sure that it will never happen again.
So your model is pretty much fucked up because is excluding the price that is needed to have the most powerful console.
We know from different sources journalists very close to Ms....and verified insiders that Ms have two sku's Lockhart and Anaconda one is more powerful than the other this seem to be a a certain thing. From sony camp everything is quite ..there are rumors about PS5 but not about different skus ... certainly this could change .

If is ...two sku's from Ms and one from Sony it's very likely Ms have the most powerful console.
Sony could go with two sku's to and reset everything ....and it would be 50% again
Or Ms could just put one console on the market and it would be 50% too...
But if someone go 2 sku's against 1 I give him 100% chance to have the power advantage
As I said before I suspect that we could see 4 sku's at launch
 
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VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
If Ms release 2 sku's and Sony 1 ...is like 100% or you think that Sony follow Ms just in the premium market?
If they release 2 and 2 sku's or 1 & 1 ...sure more than 50% is wishful thinking as you said
Sony isn't going to make 2 SKUs, they will just follow that PS4 had by copying what worked before.
MS may or may not release 2 SKUs, but by the time they announce it Sony would have already made its own decision and in no position to change it. Sony isn't going to create a 2nd SKU in a few months from scratch, that's not how that works.
 

2Blackcats

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,073
I believe the optical drive for the PS4 Pro cost around 20-25$, I imagine it will be at least 30-35$ if they decide to upgrade to a Ultra HD Blu-ray drive on the next-gen consoles.

A regular Blu-ray drive today would probably cost them around 10-15$.

I should reply to the other dude but the reason it would be cheaper is nothing to do with the cost of the drive. It's because you'd have to buy all your games digitally.
 

M3rcy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
702
I actually want MS to do this, just so we can finally put the whole idea to bed when the discless console fails to sell.

The discdrive doesn't cost anything at all really. Any belief that it would be much cheaper, doesn't add up with reality. But we have had this argument already many times, so I will leave it at that.

MS will very likely sell this SKU using the cell-phone model. Buy a Maverick and sign a contract for 2 years of XBL and/or GamePass and pay one monthly fee to pay off the system and for the services (with a discount over paying for each separately). A tip-off is that MS is working on a service that let's you buy an Xbox and have it auto-attach to your Xbox services. This, to me, is clearly aimed at making it so that people who opt for this offering have a plug-and-play experience.

In order to keep this monthly fee as low as possible you need to make the SKU as cheaply as possible and the disk drive is not necessary for the core function of the machine, so it's a prime candidate for cost-cutting.

It makes total sense if you actually take the time to think about it.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
Right now I would say nope. Not possible, but a lot can change in about 12 years, which if the status quo remains is how far we are away from a 1nm chip. But there are other suggested solutions to going around the issue so who knows? But by the time 3nm goes into mass production we will be talking PS6 release. Ideally 1nm should come in about 3 to 4 years after that.

I was under the impression that 3nm would be ready in more like 2024. Guess we have to wait a little longer.

I personally don't think 8k will ever be as important as 4k is. 8k is in that weird place where its almost impossible to tell it apart from a great 4k image. And as such not worth the resources. Kinda like how adding 5M polygons to a 1M polygon ball won't make it any rounder.

Furthermore, if say they could fit a 360CUs in an APU on 3nm to get 60TF, I see them instead only putting like 280CU for like 40TF and using the rest of the space for RT specific cores or something. Ray tracing would do way more for an image in 4k than upping the rez to 8k.

But lets not get ahead of ourselves....

Fuck 8K. I don't want to hear a goddamned word about even reconstructed 8K until the PS6 Pro at the earliest.

Wikipedia says that the biggest UHD BluRay discs are 100gb.. I thought for sure they were bigger than that :/

There are also Blu-ray XL discs that I heard go up to 128GB, but I don't know if the one drive could do both.
 

Deleted member 18161

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,805
Let's hope so, but one thing I'd like as a lay person is a list of things that could be expected that actually improve graphics instead of just refining what we have. I mean, as you said, player character models like Kratos are amazing already. Games are already featuring amazing sparks! Ok, slight dig at the Shadow Fall trailer, but I *do* like them. PBR on many objects is already damn impressive in games. Looking at some of the games we're getting and many of the games out already I wonder what next-gen will even have that is really impressive for people who don't see differences between AA solutions, HDR, are not that sensitive to framerate etc.

Sorry for the late reply. I enjoyed your post and wanted to wait until after work so I could answer it properly.

From about 1:54 in this video -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehjJ614QfeM

That is the level of visual fidelity I expect on PS5 / XB2 from a built from the ground up AAAA exclusive game.

Absolutely everything improved across the board from the geometric complexity of the World to the lighting to the pbr to the textures and to the alpha effects. To the average Joe it will look like mid level pre rendered CGI.

As someone else said almost all of your other points will be at least improved greatly as they're almost all tied to the CPU which is going to get in the order of a 4-5x leap in computational power.

People need to stop worrying and enjoy the show when they show what 10tflops (maybe more) can do with a huge budget and the most talented programmers and artists in the World.
 

Deleted member 12635

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,198
Germany
Found this very insightful information I personally wasn't aware of. The info also explains why each new process node increases cost for manufacturing and why launching the next gen console will also take more time for manufacturing the silicon.

According to TSMC Semiconductor Engineering said:
A 28nm device has 40 to 50 mask layers. In comparison, a 14nm/10nm device has 60 layers, with 7nm expected to jump to 80 to 85. 5nm could have 100 layers. So, using today's lithographic techniques, the cycle times are increasing from roughly 40 days at 28nm, to 60 days at 14nm/10nm, to 80 to 85 days at 7nm"

A layer is said to take between 1 and 1.5 days at a 16nm process and given additional weeks for shipping, packaging, and testing it could easily be about 4 months before the chips being produced get in the hands of consumers.
Source

giphy.gif
 
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Son Goku

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,332
If Sony were to release just one sku and it were under the upgraded MS one, would it be possible for them to one up MS two years later? As we've seen this gen people forget what base models power is when there's an upgraded console because every YouTube and Facebook comments section is littered with "XBOX IS MOAR POWERFUL!" Comments. People don't care what devs program for (base models) they care about numbers
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
If Sony were to release just one sku and it were under the upgraded MS one, would it be possible for them to one up MS two years later? As we've seen this gen people forget what base models power is when there's an upgraded console because every YouTube and Facebook comments section is littered with "XBOX IS MOAR POWERFUL!" Comments. People don't care what devs program for (base models) they care about numbers

I would assume it would be 3 years later and not 2, but yeah.
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
10,518
Chicagoland
EVERYTHING WILL CHANGE with a new base spec for third parties to target once the cross gen time frame ends. The entire geometric make up of games will increase exponentially when developers target that new base spec which is currently a 1.3tflop GPU inside Xbox One and will probably rise to around 10tflops next gen.

People really aren't prepared for next gen console visuals if they think it's just going to be current gen games at native 4k with graphical fidelity going from 'Normal' PC settings to 'Ultra'.

Very good points and this is what most people forget about or don't even understand to begin with.

A lot of people only think 4K 60fps! 4K 60fps! 4K 60fps! 4K 60fps! when it comes to defining next gen.
 

Bloodcore

Member
Mar 24, 2018
137
I should reply to the other dude but the reason it would be cheaper is nothing to do with the cost of the drive. It's because you'd have to buy all your games digitally.
I doubt Microsoft/Sony would lower the prices on digital games.
I haven't bought a single blu-ray since the PS3 launched and the digital prices have been either the same or worse since then.
 

Adookah

Member
Nov 1, 2017
5,730
Sarajevo
With Embark studios talking a bit about their game, and showing off an environmental test, it got me thinking about what we can expect from next gen games. The test video reminded me a lot of the brief footage we've seen from Elder Scrolls VI as well as footage from late current gen (potentially cross gen) games in Halo Infinite and Death Stranding.

I think we'll see photogrammetry, weather, time of day, and advanced GI together as the status quo next gen (rather than being featured sporadically). I'm also expecting much more variation in terrain, including elevation (which already was improved this gen), much higher density of vegetation, higher geometry surfaces, etc.

RDR2, AC: Odyssey, and Forza Horizon 4 are the best looking open world games I've played this gen, yet (to me) the footage from Embark (or even the ES6 teaser) looks a generation ahead.

looks INSANE
 

M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,252

Melchiah

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,190
Helsinki, Finland
Did the same with the emotion engine and the same with the PS3 and the famous 2 teraflops .....the problem is that times they was also lying....PS4 was the most powerful at least ...I think is just PR I expect the same next gen for who come out with the most powerful

Just to refreshen the memory, here's what Major Nelson proclaimed last gen...

0PeL1Ld.gif
lyykvta.gif


...and as far as I remember, they also combined the bandwidth numbers of eSRAM and DDR3 to represent the total memory bandwidth at the start of this gen.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
Just to refreshen the memory, here's what Major Nelson proclaimed last gen...

0PeL1Ld.gif
lyykvta.gif


...and as far as I remember, they also combined the bandwidth numbers of eSRAM and DDR3 to represent the total memory bandwidth at the start of this gen.
Ahahah Amazing...btw I was just pointing out that isn't just sony or Ms doing that...both of them do when they can
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
Found this very insightful information I personally wasn't aware of. The info also explains why each new process node increases cost for manufacturing and why launching the next gen console will also take more time for manufacturing the silicon.


Source

giphy.gif
This is why Fall iPhones have chips with manufacture dates in the summer of that year.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
Very good points and this is what most people forget about or don't even understand to begin with.

A lot of people only think 4K 60fps! 4K 60fps! 4K 60fps! 4K 60fps! when it comes to defining next gen.

Yes, so true,
I like res and fps but I'm more excited by more traditional gen graphical increases, things like 2-4x the polycount, a high number of more advanced lighting and particle effects, a higher use of advanced shadow techniques.
Hopefully so these kind of things are maximized more advanced dlss + temporal injection + checkerboarding type solutions will be more advanced and better.
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
This talk of the ps6 gen is making the ps5 gen seem meh.
IKR? Lol.

For what its worth those are just numbers though. I can promise you no one here is ready for what gaming with a great CPU+10TFish GPU will offer. Like someone else said, its like most people seem to not know that the games we have been playing since 2013 till now were designed to run on a platform with a jaguar CPU and a 1.3TF GPU. And games like GOW (generally sony first party/exclusives) were designed for the base PS4.

Next gen is going to be awesome. Its easy to look at games running on the PC with 10TF+ GPUs and great CPUs and think thats what next gen is aiming to match, but in truth that is the dumbest thing anyone can say or think with regards to next gen. Because in the last 5yrs r so very few PC games have even shown what those systems can really do.

I think I have said it earlier. But I will say it again. Just look at what was possible with GOW running on a jaguar CPU + 1.8TF GPU + 5GB of RAM. Now imagine what will be possible on a zen CPU + ~10TF GPU + 16GB of RAM. People talk only numbers and TF not because its what really matters, but because its easier t compare and contrast. You can't compare and contrast imagination.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
IKR? Lol.

For what its worth those are just numbers though. I can promise you no one here is ready for what gaming with a great CPU+10TFish GPU will offer. Like someone else said, its like most people seem to not know that the games we have been playing since 2013 till now were designed to run on a platform with a jaguar CPU and a 1.3TF GPU. And games like GOW (generally sony first party/exclusives) were designed for the base PS4.

Next gen is going to be awesome. Its easy to look at games running on the PC with 10TF+ GPUs and great CPUs and think thats what next gen is aiming to match, but in truth that is the dumbest thing anyone can say or think with regards to next gen.

I think I have said it earlier. But I will say it again. Just look at what was possible with GOW running on a jaguar CPU + 1.8TF GPU + 5GB of RAM. Now imagine what will be possible on a zen CPU + ~10TF GPU + 16GB of RAM. People talk only numbers and TF not because its what that matters, but because its easier t compare and contrast. You can't compare and contrast imagination.

Yes, I just did a post commenting on these things.
I think next gen will be like this, but with better environments + explosions.

Next gen graphical effects will make things like the dimensional rift possible, which look unlike anything we have seen this gen.

 

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,483
While I enjoy hardware speculation and the thought of cool next generation consoles, the platform features are definitely an underappreciated topic for next generation. Platform game "modding" support is an area that I believe Xbox could have a serious selling point if they execute it well for next generation, and they would seem to be the best equipped to do so given their presence on the PC side. My three boys have grown up in the age of "modding" of Minecraft and things like Garry's Mod and such, and we all know how huge modding has been over the years with Skyrim and Fallout games for example.

Windowscentral wrote something last summer based on some internal documents about possible work or plans in this area - https://www.windowscentral.com/how-microsoft-exploring-bringing-mods-xbox-one

And just yesterday they announced with Paradox Interactive that they will be supporting the 'Paradox Mods' platform on Xbox with full support initially for Surviving Mars and plans for other games too (they do Cities: Skylines and such also) - https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2019/02/20/paradox-mods/. I know that this isn't Xbox platform level support, but it does show once again that they are interested in this topic.
 

2Blackcats

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,073
While I enjoy hardware speculation and the thought of cool next generation consoles, the platform features are definitely an underappreciated topic for next generation. Platform game "modding" support is an area that I believe Xbox could have a serious selling point if they execute it well for next generation, and they would seem to be the best equipped to do so given their presence on the PC side. My three boys have grown up in the age of "modding" of Minecraft and things like Garry's Mod and such, and we all know how huge modding has been over the years with Skyrim and Fallout games for example.

Windowscentral wrote something last summer based on some internal documents about possible work or plans in this area - https://www.windowscentral.com/how-microsoft-exploring-bringing-mods-xbox-one

And just yesterday they announced with Paradox Interactive that they will be supporting the 'Paradox Mods' platform on Xbox with full support initially for Surviving Mars and plans for other games too (they do Cities: Skylines and such also) - https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2019/02/20/paradox-mods/. I know that this isn't Xbox platform level support, but it does show once again that they are interested in this topic.

Platform features are definitely worth speculating on. I dismissed the share button button completely when it was announced. Now i love it. Going back over screenshots is like looking at holiday snaps from my virtual adventures.

A modding system might be cool i guess, though would probably have to be system level to get traction. I wonder how many people would be into it. Personally i have no interest but could be another share button scenario like above.

I wonder if Sony double down on VR, might they dedicate a bit more of the APU to the the CPU? A different CPU/GPU Balance between the two consoles might make some interesting contrasts/discussion.

Think voice commands could be something Microsoft might push. The tech has come on a lot. They've had 2 runs at it already with moderate success. PS4 has them too but it's under implemented and never discussed
 

Sekiro

Member
Jan 25, 2019
2,938
United Kingdom
Are 100gb blu ray discs even going to be enough for next gen, didnt RDR2 this gen release at over 100gb? how are they going to solve that next gen.
 

Deleted member 5764

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,574
Are 100gb blu ray discs even going to be enough for next gen, didnt RDR2 this gen release at over 100gb? how are they going to solve that next gen.

I know we have examples of 100Gb+ games, but I'd be really curious to see how many fall within that range. 50-70Gb seems more accurate to me, but I haven't exactly researched it yet.
 

WhtR88t

Member
May 14, 2018
4,587
Are 100gb blu ray discs even going to be enough for next gen, didnt RDR2 this gen release at over 100gb? how are they going to solve that next gen.

I've been playing a lot of PSNow the last few days and it pretty much solves the issues of giant game downloads buy letting you stream the game, while the local version downloads in the background.

I could see them offering this as an option for all PS5 games.

It was pretty cool to be able to hop nearly instantly into any of the available games without having to wait for the install/download.

One thing they need to work on though is the UX of migrating you streamed version save to the local version, it's a manual process right now, but should be completely seamless.
 
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