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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
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Nope. PS2 was roughly 6.6 Gflops, PS3 was 230 Gflops. Thats 37 times the Flops increase from the PS2. the PS4 is 1.84 tflops which is a 7.9x increase in computational power.
Xbox was 20 Gflops. Xbox 360 was roughly 250 Gflops. Roughly a 12x increase. Xbox One X was only 1.3 tflops which is roughly a 5x increase.
https://www.gamespot.com/gallery/console-gpu-power-compared-ranking-systems-by-flop/2900-1334/4/
As you can see, the difference has been steadily decreasing. It's not been roughly 8 times every gen. not even close. PS1 to PS2 jump was even bigger.
The disparity in VRAM increases is even higher. PS2 was a weird system, and it did a lot with just 4MB of RAM. So thats not a good barometer. But if we look at the original Xbox which had 64 MB of RAM, the 512 Xbox 360 shipped with is just an 8x increase. Both PS4 and Xbox One shipped with 8GB of RAM which is 16x the increase. This gen needed that extra push of RAM, next gen doesnt. a 2-3x increase should be more than efficient. We dont need an 8x increase to 64GB or a 16x increase to 128GB just to match last gen's increase. That is complete overkill.
Lastly, the PS4 is 1.84 tflops. 7x is 12.88 Tflops. We should be around that especially now that the consoles have been delayed to 2020 and Phil Specner not shying away from pushing Sony and wanting to win the power race. MS will undoubtedly have a 12-14 tflops system which would be a 10x increase from the Xbox One and 7x increase from base PS4.
P.S The CPU jump alone should be massive. Roughly double the clock speed and an extra thread per core should result in some lively games. lots more NPCs and environmental interactivity, livelier worlds. current gen worlds like red dead and horizon will look dead by comparison. And as great as a 10x jump would be, the current console CPUs have proven to be the bottlenecks just like the RAM was last gen, so expect engineers to overcorrect and go with a powerful CPU and compliment it with a decent 7-8x GPU increase with a lot of customizations that allow for Ray Tracing or if not ray tracing, some kind of custom secret sauce to do 4k without eating up the GPU resources.
Trying to follow here, we should have much greater CPU jump than 3x next gen right?
If they only have 16GB GDDR6, the RAM cost will likely be less.
3x is min. Applications highly FP dependent may be closer to 4-5x with max theoretical boost around 6x.
Considering how little Intel IPC has moved in the last 7 years, it's a big upgrade.
I'd like to know where is coming this sureness that supposed ps5 has been delayed to 2020...pro was out in 2016 the same year of the RX 480. Why AMD with NAVI scheduled in 2019 should be delayed on ps5 in 2020? Because Sony has announced to miss the 2019 E3? Not saying 2019 is a given but we don't know nothing about anything of concrete for now and it seems a bit weird ps5 will be launched with a tech already aged of 1 year.
I said performance increase over time, not just generations, as the consoles are coming out a different number of years from each other, of course. After all, the rate of transistor count per cost over time has been steady until very recently. PS3 to PS2 was proportional to PS2 over PS1 given the time difference, as I said.
You can't just look at VRAM differences either, because the way the systems address RAM varies wildly. You must look at total available system / video memory. Again, the PS4 & X1 had a LARGER gain because MORE YEARS transpired between PS3 and PS4 than between previous generations. You say 64GB RAM is overkill, but if the production pipeline was taking advantage of that RAM, and it would be if we actually had it in PCs and consoles, it would not be overkill. RAM increase is responsible for a large amount of the increase in fidelity over console generations. You're making a cart before the horse sort of dismissal of importance.
I think the CPU difference might be a bit overstated, because the current vanilla consoles were relatively well balanced for gaming, but have fallen out of proportion with the console revisions. But we'll see how much that factors in soon enough. Maybe if PC games took advantage of the extreme difference in CPU there I could point to an existing game and agree with you. (I don't necessarily disagree, I just have no gaming evidence to assert either way) But my i9-9900k really isn't too heavily used.
It doesn't even matter, because you will see for yourself soon enough when the next consoles are released.
They need time to make and test the games. Pro just was an enhaced version of an existing console, this one is going to be brand new with everything. In addition to this, PS4 is still selling like hotcakes so won't want to stop it, it would be more profitable for them to wait.
I think they never planned a 2019 release and always had 2020 in mind. My bet is November 2020 release for PS5.
Considered the mid gen success, they could initially launch ps5 how enhanced machine of the same games and slowly abandon the ps4; exclusives will coming first or later. They could use this excuse to price moderately higher the ps5 and share the lifespan with the ps4 hardware leaving to the masses more choice until the price is accessible for all.
I mean to me nothing is clear to establish what will be their strategies about the ps5.
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New thread smell!
Great post from Alex!
Looking forward to the reveal in early 2020 and a late 2020 launch!
Great post from Alex!
Looking forward to the reveal in early 2020 and a late 2020 launch!
I cover this in the "Press Leak Luck" and "Equines' Opines" sections on page 1.
I cover this post in my channel about" when I supposed to be fun but people doesn't agree with me."
thats what happened this gen. PS4 GPU is based on the Pitcairn line of AMD 7000 series. it was released in 2012.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radeon_HD_7000_Series
HD 7850 is very close to the PS4 GPU.
True but they have their reasons at the time. I don't see Sony release a tech aged an year older this time, at least looking at the PS4 pro. Just I guess.
You know you should know when to stop eh. You are less smart than you think without offence.
MS will show their big guns at E3 2019.
Sony will drop hints immediately after E3.
Both going for $499.
PS. Great OP. :)
Sony will drop hints immediately after E3.
Both going for $499.
PS. Great OP. :)
Sony Electronics Inc. Media Days News Conference
https://www.ces.tech/event/Sony-Electronics-Inc-Media-Days-News-Conference.aspx
Livestreams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsvtjN5yBAg
https://livestream.com/sony/ces
Again, I'm not expecting anything major PlayStation related from this press conference, mostly posting for reference.
https://www.ces.tech/event/Sony-Electronics-Inc-Media-Days-News-Conference.aspx
Livestreams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsvtjN5yBAg
https://livestream.com/sony/ces
Again, I'm not expecting anything major PlayStation related from this press conference, mostly posting for reference.
We could get a PS4 sales update.Sony Electronics Inc. Media Days News Conference
https://www.ces.tech/event/Sony-Electronics-Inc-Media-Days-News-Conference.aspx
Livestreams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsvtjN5yBAg
https://livestream.com/sony/ces
Again, I'm not expecting anything major PlayStation related from this press conference, mostly posting for reference.
You do know it takes a shitload more work to build and validate an entire SoC than just a single GPU, right? Sure, MS/Sony will be adding their own flavour to it, but overall it still remains a semi-custom chip. Expecting the consoles to not lag behind in some aspect compared to dedicated chips is nuts, especially today.
Why?
Considering a Fall 2020 launch for PS5, a reveal in 2019 doesnt make sense. That would mean more than 1 year from reveal to release, which would be very weird in this day and age.
What means "reveal"? For example, do you count E3 2016 as the reveal of Xbox One X?
I think Microsoft will tease its next Xbox at E3, but they won't reveal it before 2020 (or maybe even 2021). And Sony won't pronounce the word "PlayStation 5" before 2020 (2021).
I think Microsoft will tease its next Xbox at E3, but they won't reveal it before 2020 (or maybe even 2021). And Sony won't pronounce the word "PlayStation 5" before 2020 (2021).
Lol. What if Sony let AMD use Cell vectorization tech in Navi? 🤔
lol won't happen, but would be interesting
AMD said to have worked for years with Sony for the NAVI tech. Why a ps5 SoC couldn't be absolutely feasible in late 2019? I don't get it. Doesn't sounds so unrealistic to me.
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I don't believe we will wait till Fall 2020 for PS5, next Xbox possibly yes,but not PS5.
I think we will get leak with full PS5 specs,one way or another,before E3 2019.As for the official announcement it remains to be seen.
OP
OP
I was thinking about clarifying this, actually. By reveal I mean an event or segment where they say "We're here to talk about PS5/New Xbox". They don't even have to show the real console(We didn't see the PS4 model until E3 2013 even though we saw the controller and games).
In the scenarios you mentioned, I wouldn't take a tease as a reveal. I take E3 2016 as the reveal of the Xbox One X because they mentioned the specifications of the console.
If they do with Scarlet like what they did with Scorpio at E3 2016, I would take that as a reveal:
IMO a reveal is a name and some top level specs at the very least. So the PS4 reveal without the controller would be enough.
Yay new thread.
2020 is going to be mind-melting. I think Sony will follow their 2013 PS4 playbook to a "T" with PS5.
February PlayStation Meeting - E3 blowout - November release.
2020 is going to be mind-melting. I think Sony will follow their 2013 PS4 playbook to a "T" with PS5.
February PlayStation Meeting - E3 blowout - November release.
With new leadership I wouldn't be surprised if they go for something different tbh.
That would be stupid IMO. Doing something different is much riskier than what worked so incredibly well. Their new leadership should be aware of that.
I think the should evaluate what worked well, and what didn't, but understand that things can always be done better and do whatever they think works best. Replicating the same strategy doesn't guarantee success, and certainly doesn't sound like growth and improvement.
I think this is realistic but I really hope I don't have to wait till late 2020 for the next generation to start :(
That's a good point. Kaz, Jack and Andrew are all gone. Any other notable departures I'm missing?
A 2019 console reveal isn't really farfetched.
Adam Boyes and Shahid Kamal.
The guys who nailed PS4's launch are all gone now.
Boyes and Shahid were critical for third party relations but I don't think they were high enough to shape the platform that much. The third party team still seems to be in pretty good hands.
Boyes was there when Pitchford demanded 8GB of RAM!
https://www.playstationlifestyle.ne...ram-on-ps4-you-are-done-said-randy-pitchford/
Indeed, but my memory had him recounting the story as a messenger, and less so as one there to negotiate. Still, he got to drop the used game bomb video with Shu. He'll always have that.
This always felt shady to me. I know they didn't technically give away any Xbox info but come on lol
Gearbox wasn't the only one they heard it from. Crytek's CEO also said the same thing.
Where there's smoke there's fire.
Sony not doing E3 and other events is a lot of smoke.
I think they are doing there own events so they can control the narrative for ps5 as much as possible in 2019.
But I do expect a spring 2020 PS5 launch, with scarlett coming in early autumn to not give Sony a big lead.
PS5
Zen2 8core 2.8ghz
12.6 Navi gpu
18 GDDR6
64gb flash chip
1tb sata HD
$399
X1S2
Zen2 8 core 3ghz
12.8navi gpu
18gbGDDR6
64 Flash chip
1tb sata HD
$399
X1X2
Zen2 8core 3.4ghz
16.8tflop Navi gpu
24gb gddr6
64gb Flash chip
1tb sata
$499
Sony not doing E3 and other events is a lot of smoke.
I think they are doing there own events so they can control the narrative for ps5 as much as possible in 2019.
But I do expect a spring 2020 PS5 launch, with scarlett coming in early autumn to not give Sony a big lead.
PS5
Zen2 8core 2.8ghz
12.6 Navi gpu
18 GDDR6
64gb flash chip
1tb sata HD
$399
X1S2
Zen2 8 core 3ghz
12.8navi gpu
18gbGDDR6
64 Flash chip
1tb sata HD
$399
X1X2
Zen2 8core 3.4ghz
16.8tflop Navi gpu
24gb gddr6
64gb Flash chip
1tb sata
$499
Double down on Powers. J/K
I think this launch both parties will come correct
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