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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
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I'm now convinced that Anaconda and PS5 will end up within 10% GPU performance in SP floating point.
1,8TFx7=12,6TF as minimum, if you expect a 7-8 times the ps4 and I don't see other viable meter of comparison to reach such point of power...now it seems weird to me 8TF on Navi will become like the old 12TF. But if it means that I wouldn't care less how they named such TF counts.
I think the difference will be less pronounced compared to this gen (as in, X1 vs PS4).
I agree. Have to remember that 10% at this level is 1-1.4TF. The entire power of the OG Xbox One.
This is brutal. No pressure Navi
Interesting data bit here. AMD microcodes updates that increase latency but also increase performance: https://reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/b8xc3c/latest_amd_microcodes_come_with_higher_latencies/
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I saw the prices column and thought this was anand's april fools... What a weird thing to do...
PS4 was also a $399 machine. Looks like Sony might be going with a $499 beast.
Google stadia severs are 10.7 tflops. Jason Schrier said Sony and MS are aiming higher than that. So 12 tflops is pretty much a certainty. If they add a nice cooling system and go to a $499, we can do 14 Tflops on 7nm with no issues.
RTX 2080 Ti is an overpriced monstrosity. Expect 1080 Ti levels of performance from next gen consoles.
I agree, but only if they launch at the same price.
I continue with my speculation that PS5 will be 400-450, possibly 500, and Ananconda will be surely be $500 (with Lockhart 300-350).
The problem I have with comparisons to a 1080Ti makes it seem that the console is outdated before it's even launched. I know it's only a psychological thing but I'd prefer it being likened to RTX 2060 or something.
People here are usually referring to next-gen GPU performance in relation to AMD's cards, not NVidia's,. So expectations are between Vega 56 and 64 performance, not 2080Ttis.
He didn't say that "they are supposedly going to be revealed soon". What's more, it seems that he knows much less than some of the users here attribute to him.
Why? As far as I can tell, there are no facilities for making pressed BDXL discs.
Isn't Sony making the 130 GB themselves ? That's why I think they might use it . Not sure how expensive it will be compared to 100 gb UHD .
But it's bigger and made by Sony so they might use it
Isn't UHD movie sales down ? If I remember correctly the UHD movie market is not doing great and as for space BDXL has around 30gb more space than UHD. So I see no reason for Sony to go with UHD if the costs are about same .
Just wait for PS5 Pro for 14 -17 TF levels of performance then.
1080Ti levels with a good CPU to go with it, its a fantastic starting point for developers in my opinion. The reality is that, it is, a big increase over 1.84 Tf PS4.
On another note , I don't think Sony will want to wait 3 years after the release of the OG PS5 to put out a more powerful revision if MS decides to go with the rumored 2 model approach starting from launch. To add to that, I think it would be a profiting strategy if there wasn't such a big gap in sales between OG PS5 and PS5 Pro, as it would promote more support from the devs and there would be a big growing install base for the "high end".
However, if Sony goes with the 2 model approach starting from launch too, then even better.
There's options to consider. I'm positive Sony will / can approach the 2060 fidelity spectrum with a revision.
uhd is just file format, afaik its a bluray you only need the bdxl to be able to read the file
They aren't great but I feel like a successful console will change that. one S and One X mind you came midgen and have at best moved 20M units on their own?
Vs Xbox Two + PS5 both having it as a main marketing point for a full console upgrade that's required to play next gen games, likely will add 150-200M UHD players into living rooms.
Had UHD somehow made it into consoles in 2013 it's market would be very different. Idk if it would be as healthy as DVDs peak but everything has lower ceilings in terms of sales since streaming took over
Yea but not all BDXL player can read UHD and I assume Sony won't activate it on ps5 yet again (cause I m sure they have to pay a small royalty fee to their association ,BDA. ). Just my feeling .I could be wrong though .
My question is something else though
Does Sony have any interest to popularize UHD file format? Doesn't seem that way .maybe they r cooking a new format or something under the table
That's my point, that Navi may have architectural improvements that give it greater performance that what the technical TF count would immediately suggest. It might be listed as having 10TF, but in reality have similar performance to a 12TF Polaris chip. We don't knew yet, because we don't have proper Navi deets. Bring on Computex.
sony is part of the BDA and they have the tv department and sony pictures, so they have interest in the UHD format. With the exception of playstation 4, they all introduced something new in this regard so the console could be sold as something else than a videogame.
- Playstation 1 was a CD player
- Playstation 2 was a DVD player.
- Playstation 3 was the blu-ray player.
Nope it won't.
It's not that UHDs aren't doing great person say and more that disc based sales are generally dropping and have been doing so for years.
People just aren't buying deducted players anymore. And even those that have players aren't really going out there to spend $20 on a disc. We have the likes of apple, Amazon, Netflix.....hell pretty much every streaming service to thank for that.
Expecting 14 TFLOPS in a console when AMD hasn't even done that in the dGPU space (and without needing a ton of power and acting as a space heater) certainly isn't "easily doable" at $500. Not sure it's doable at all, given AMD being a continual disappointment.
Correct. But the thing to remember here is that the TFLOPS count is a theoretical maximum. What I imagine many are hoping for is that the real world usage of Navi will match (or exceed in some areas) the real-world usage of a Vega 56 or 64 card that has a higher TFLOPS count than the Navi due to architecture improvements.
Yeah, I said that the market for discs has shrunk. All markets shrink from heyday but can still grow and be profitable. Vinyl records and WWE as examples. Not near their peak but doing well with smaller markets now.
You can't tell me that there wouldn't be an uptick in UHD disc sales if suddenly 150M ppl over the course of 5 years got a player in their Xbox Two/PS5.
Would it bring it to DVDs height? No. But for the size of the disc market now it would be good.
It will not overtake streaming of course but it can for sure carve out a good market for itself after a few years of console support that isn't a midgen refresh.
Tech trajectory. Market positioning and the fact that both have too many reasons to push as far as is economically feasible for their next-gen consoles.
I'm anticipating more generous console TDP constraints than we saw last-gen, together with some very clever engineering in cooling and case design.
Absolutely. Although I see the main differences being in the GPU accelerators and customizations between the two designs.
I agree. Have to remember that 10% at this level is 1-1.4TF. The entire power of the OG Xbox One.
This is brutal. No pressure Navi
Interesting data bit here. AMD microcodes updates that increase latency but also increase performance: https://reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/b8xc3c/latest_amd_microcodes_come_with_higher_latencies/
Navi can't come quickly enough.
I'm expecting similarly, although I think PS5 will either be $399 or $499 with no inbetween, for obvious marketing reasons.
Which should be interesting regarding console war fuel; I guess that will mostly come down to secondary stuff like network features and the likes. Unless one of the systems will also have a specific focus on raytracing; I guess thats something that might be pushed as an USP. But regarding resolutions and framerates (unless the CPUs really diverge and there is a bigger TF-delta between the two systems) I see little reason why there should be a "substantial difference".
The Navi GPUs in PS5 and Anaconda are going to be 7nm. they should be able to double the CUs going from 16nm (mid gen consoles) to 7nm while increasing the clock speeds just as they were able to do so when going from the 28nm launch consoles to the 16nm mid gen refreshes.
I know.
I was referring to that article being quoted above my original post. I was saying it wasn't going to be revealed soon because Jason already told us not to expect anything soon.
AMD has already released a 7nm card. Sounds like you're expecting magic from Navi.
I agree with this....
If for nothing else it's that Sony knows exactly what MS is going to try and do. Sony knows MS will go for the best hardware they can get and will opt for the best cooling solution they can get too.
So the choice is simple for Sony, you either do the same and match or maybe exceed whatever MS does, or you build a system that will have a slightly lower clocked CPU and a GPU that's like 1-3TF weaker and rough out the rest of the gen with the mantle of being the weaker console.
How important Sony believes any of that is remains to be seen.
It doesn't have to be magic.
It just has to be a GPU built from the ground up for 7nm as opposed to one that was simply ported over to 7nm.
Ima lulz if Sony releases an arcade and pro version of PS5 and shock us all.
8TF and 13TF versions.
8TF and 13TF versions.
Radeon 7... essentially a Vega shrink, i.e. an absolute mess of a GPU microarch whose main headline features mostly aren't even enabled.
Yeah, that's not an indication of anything fam.
I don't think MS or Sony internally will be framing their plans against a backdrop of what they think the other will do.
Contrary to prrvious gens, it seems both companies have their own visions for gaming and will be looking to execute their own strategies inpendent of what they might think the other is doing.
They will consider each other's moves after the fact, but they won't orient their design decisions around speculation on what the other is planning; that would be a woefully precarious strategy to stake your entire next 6-7 yrs of console business on.
Both MS and Sony will build the fastest boxes thwy can because of (but not limited to) the following:
- Mid-gen boxes have become a point of comparison for consumers (like it or not) -So marketing next-gen consoles against 4k for example is a non-starter because we already have 4k boxes.
- Streaming competitors present a threat to consoles - casual console gamer mindshare needs to be retained in the knowledge that a box under the TV provides the absolute pinnacle AAA gaming experience. An underpowered next-gen console won't achieve that.
- Advancement in manufacturing process technology slowdown means future node shrinks aren't a given - meaning next-gen mid-gen upgrades may not make sense and the 5 and 3nm process nodes may never be economical for consoles. The future beyond silicon scaling is fundamentally uncertain.
- Rise in the importance of digital platform revenues to the business mean a lesser reliance hardware and physical game sale revenues, meaning a more aggressive hardware launch (in terms of absorbed sunk costs) can be justofied - i've been back forth on this, but have recently become convinced that the importance of the console business to both MS and Sony is such that they'll both be willing to invest more aggressively to launch their new platforms.
- Platform subscriptions appear to present a plethora of new ongoing revenue possibilites - these can further lend justification to an aggressive next-gen console launch.
Undercooked is more accurate. Hence why Navi will appear to be a big improvement (even if it only closes the gap somewhat on NVidia's efficiency advantage).
Wait, so with Google Stadia, can a developer dynamically allocate additional compute power(scene complexity,, physics distribution, animation complexity, behavioral modeling) depending on the scene requirements of a game on a per scene basis?
Am I understanding that correctly?
If so, although that is amazing tech, there really isn't anything stopping Sony/Microsoft from also using this tech to augment additional compute on their new consoles too, no?
Am I understanding that correctly?
If so, although that is amazing tech, there really isn't anything stopping Sony/Microsoft from also using this tech to augment additional compute on their new consoles too, no?
I posted that Navi info yesterday ;)
Edit: Any idea what the Intel Emmitsburg is? Google isn't helping...
I keep hearing people say it'll be as powerful as an rtx 2070/gtx 1080 but in reality for $400, 1660ti at best but that is a better performer than a gtx 1070 with less watts.
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