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When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
It's a ps5 reveal. No one outside of gaming forums will care if they were mislead. How long was the"controversy" over Ancel voluntarily saying their was would he no beyond good and evil at E3 and then their was?

If theres articles on n4g, reddit and other social medias about it a lot of people will know about it.

I think people here really underestimate how much news trickles down to a wider audience.

But I don't think A PS5 contradicting sneak reveal would come off all negative.

You would have Sony fans be like "yeah, Sony beat ms with there sneak attack hahahaha PS5 rulezzz"
And Xbox fans be like "lyin Sony, its a disgrace how they can lie to gamers"
 

HesienbergSHO

Banned
Dec 29, 2018
115
It's a ps5 reveal. No one outside of gaming forums will care if they were mislead. How long was the"controversy" over Ancel voluntarily saying their was would he no beyond good and evil at E3 and then their was?

I was mislead into thinking Sony wasn't going to have ANYTHING around E3...

Now shut up while I watch this glorious PS5 reveal.

And I couldn't care less if its during E3 or not lets get Next Gen started.
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
Getting upset over being "misled" by a gaming company for their potential console reveal?

Yep, sounds like something Era folk would do.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
If theres articles on n4g, reddit and other social medias about it a lot of people will know about it.

I think people here really underestimate how much news trickles down to a wider audience.

It's still a ps5 reveal. No one will care that someone mislead, it harms no one. How does it effect anyone? We're not talking $599 or always online
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,760
So just like Xbox was touting the power of the cloud to improve certain things in games like Crackdown 3, is anyone expecting we'll continue to see cloud power used to enhance games running locally on next gen consoles?
 

Hudsoniscool

Banned
Jun 5, 2018
1,495
No exclusive will cost $500 million or even half of that, the biggest ones are probably over $100 million this gen though I wouldn't be surprised if they were less.
No. Do the math on it. The coalition had a slideshow a couple months ago that said including outsourcing they had over 600 people working on gears 5. At 100k a year that's 60 million.... in 1 year.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,760
Random question: earlier I was pondering that multiple Navi GPUs in a chiplet formation might provide some benefits akin to a SLI configuration. Using that same line of thinking is there any precedent for a multi-CPU configuration outside of servers, and any idea if that might be an idea worth pursuing? So I'm talking 2 Zen 2 chips for example. I know it's not gonna happen, but I'm wondering if the concept is something that could yield great results maybe down the road for a mid-gen refresh or even the next gen after the upcoming one.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
Nobody is going to be mad that Sony announced the PS5 around E3. But as I said before I would find it hilarious and needlessly dramatic.

Sony: We aren't saying anything around E3. Not this time! Our lips are sealed, baby.

Rest of industry: But you're always at E3! We're gonna be there, it's gonna be a blast. Maybe just do something off site!

Sony: Oh well! Send a postcard, buddy. We're off doing our own thang. Real hush hush shit, ya dig?

Rest of industry: Well it's gonna be weird without you, since you're always there. But it's cool, sometimes you gotta do your own thi--- Sony: SURPRISE Y'ALL!!! IT AIN'T A PARTY UNLESS WE'RE IN THE SPOT!!! BAM, PS5!!

Rest of industry: But..... you're always here?

God I hope it happens like that, I'd be so entertained.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
Random question: earlier I was pondering that multiple Navi GPUs in a chiplet formation might provide some benefits akin to a SLI configuration. Using that same line of thinking is there any precedent for a multi-CPU configuration outside of servers, and any idea if that might be an idea worth pursuing? So I'm talking 2 Zen 2 chips for example. I know it's not gonna happen, but I'm wondering if the concept is something that could yield great results maybe down the road for a mid-gen refresh or even the next gen after the upcoming one.
SLI scales horribly in most cases and has largely been abandoned. Chiplet GPUs just re-creates the problem, so it will take some time to solve. We know that's where things are headed due to AMD and Nvidia research, but we're not there yet.

Split frame rendering, as opposed to alternate frame rendering, may be able to scale performance better and avoid some of the pitfalls like tearing and micro-stuttering. It still has to be proven.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,760
SLI scales horribly in most cases and has largely been abandoned. Chiplet GPUs just re-creates the problem, so it will take some time to solve. We know that's where things are headed due to AMD and Nvidia research, but we're not there yet.

Split frame rendering, as opposed to alternate frame rendering, may be able to scale performance better and avoid some of the pitfalls like tearing and micro-stuttering. It still has to be proven.

Thank you again for providing a great answer :)

My mind keeps going back to the Stadia concept of using multiple Stadia stacks to give you something more than a single stack. I assume that has to mean CPU, GPU and memory will be shared, meaning they seem to have some sort of way of bridging the gap and making these processes effective... well unless they're just blowing smoke up our arses I guess. I'm bringing up multi-GPU and multi-CPU chiplet configurations as it might be interesting to see them use a method similar to Stadia.
 

Deleted member 721

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,416
Nobody is going to be mad that Sony announced the PS5 around E3. But as I said before I would find it hilarious and needlessly dramatic.

Sony: We aren't saying anything around E3. Not this time! Our lips are sealed, baby.

Rest of industry: But you're always at E3! We're gonna be there, it's gonna be a blast. Maybe just do something off site!

Sony: Oh well! Send a postcard, buddy. We're off doing our own thang. Real hush hush shit, ya dig?

Rest of industry: Well it's gonna be weird without you, since you're always there. But it's cool, sometimes you gotta do your own thi--- Sony: SURPRISE Y'ALL!!! IT AIN'T A PARTY UNLESS WE'RE IN THE SPOT!!! BAM, PS5!!

Rest of industry: But..... you're always here?

God I hope it happens like that, I'd be so entertained.
if its the ps5 or not that insider comment is really suspicious that sony will do something at e3
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
if its the ps5 or not that insider comment is really suspicious that sony will do something at e3

The guy who's friend was doing CG work for Sony? That was curious. Considering we know MS is going to talk I would love if Sony had something to say around the same time too, though I can understand them wanting to control the media cycle. But in my personal greed I want all of the next gen goodness condensed into one week or so.

Edit: Oh, you meant actual insider. Yeah that was a curious comment too. Maybe Sony announces before E3? Would seem pretty early though. Unless...lol
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,760

Ahh. Yeah, I'm still trying to interpret this message. Initially once I learned this person has insight into the industry I thought this might be a cryptic way of hinting that Sony might be doing something else, just not at E3. But then it was pointed out this person is known for Microsoft leaks, and now I think they're trying to hint that Microsoft's E3 event won't be a huge blowout and will be more reserved, and because of that SIE not being there isn't that big a deal.

Not sure how best to interpret the statement.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
Ahh. Yeah, I'm still trying to interpret this message. Initially once I learned this person has insight into the industry I thought this might be a cryptic way of hinting that Sony might be doing something else, just not at E3. But then it was pointed out this person is known for Microsoft leaks, and now I think they're trying to hint that Microsoft's E3 event won't be a huge blowout and will be more reserved, and because of that SIE not being there isn't that big a deal.

Not sure how best to interpret the statement.

I read it as reserving that spot in the thread, which I found even weirder.
 
OP
OP
Phoenix Splash
Mar 23, 2018
2,654
I'm still lost regarding the two SKUs for the next Xbox, honestly.

Is the plan for Anaconda(the more expensive one) to offer a premium experience over the next-gen base consoles(What the X/Pro to the PS4/XB1) or to offer an alternative like the Xbox One S is to the PS4 Slim and vice versa?
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,760
The guy who's friend was doing CG work for Sony? That was curious. Considering we know MS is going to talk I would love if Sony had something to say around the same time too, though I can understand them wanting to control the media cycle. But in my personal greed I want all of the next gen goodness condensed into one week or so.

Edit: Oh, you meant actual insider. Yeah that was a curious comment too. Maybe Sony announces before E3? Would seem pretty early though. Unless...lol

Well assuming the CG rumor is accurate then I suppose it could be a CG trailer for State of Play, but the person who talked about the CG trailer did seem to imply that Sony hiring this company to do this type of work was a big deal so that then leads me to think maybe it's for a bigger event than State of Play.



I read it as reserving that spot in the thread, which I found even weirder.

Same, initially. Then I remembered the word had a different meaning and realized it'd be silly to reserve a random spot in the middle of a thread. It's not like they could go back and edit the post so they could later say , "AH-HA! I was right!" because we'd see the edit. It seems that insider thinks it'll be a reserved E3 and not a blow-out.
 

Deleted member 49804

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,868
No. Do the math on it. The coalition had a slideshow a couple months ago that said including outsourcing they had over 600 people working on gears 5. At 100k a year that's 60 million.... in 1 year.
You don't have outsourcing work all the time and their work is not necessarily 100k a year.

CD Project RED capital group has 887 employees and their total expenses (everything from developers to janitors or anything outsourced) are around $65 million in 2018.
So no, 343 industries is not dropping $100 million a year on Halo Infinite alone, even tho developers in Seattle are a lot more expensive than Poland.


Edit:
looking at just CD Project RED, without GoG it shows even better.

Total employees: 698
Total expenses: ~$30 million
 
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Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
I'm still lost regarding the two SKUs for the next Xbox, honestly.

Is the plan for Anaconda(the more expensive one) to offer a premium experience over the next-gen base consoles(What the X/Pro to the PS4/XB1) or to offer an alternative like the Xbox One S is to the PS4 Slim and vice versa?

I'm not sure we know. Well, maybe somebody here knows but we don't collectively know. Sony could also go for $500, then what? All we can agree on is one cheaper SKU and one more expensive SKU. Seem like where they land power-wise is hinged upon where the PS5 falls and that we don't know.
 

Hudsoniscool

Banned
Jun 5, 2018
1,495
You don't have outsourcing work all the time and their work is not necessarily 100k a year.

CD Project RED capital group has 887 employees and their total expenses (everything from developers to janitors or anything outsourced) are around $65 million in 2018.
So no, 343 industries is not dropping $100 million a year on Halo 5, even tho developers in Seattle are a lot more expensive than Poland.
I didn't say 343 was dropping 100 million a year. I was disputing that game budgets don't go over 250 million and I was disputing that few exclusives don't go over 100 million.
343 has well over 500 people there. Maybe even 600 now. They have already said that 2 other studios are doing the work for halo mcc. I don't think it's outlandish to say 400-450 full time devs at 343 work on the game. Plus outsourcing which includes skybox labs being partners with the development. Seattle is an extremely expensive area and Microsoft pays well. Also did you know that in America total cost to the employer is around 20%-30% higher than what that the employee actually makes. So an employee making 80k actually costs the company around 100k because of insurance, workman's comp,retirement expenses etc.

400 fulltime devs at 100k a year(that includes the 20-30% mark up) is 200 million in 5 years. 500 full time devs at 120k a year is 300 million in 5 years.

That's the ballpark 200-300 million..... for 343 employees only that doesn't include contract work
which is much much harder to gauge the cost and amount of people so I won't bother.if we had exact headcounts year to year or exact costs per employee than the number could be narrowed down on.
 

Hey Please

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
22,824
Not America
I'm not sure we know. Well, maybe somebody here knows but we don't collectively know. Sony could also go for $500, then what? All we can agree on is one cheaper SKU and one more expensive SKU. Seem like where they land power-wise is hinged upon where the PS5 falls and that we don't know.

Factors to consider (imho alone):

1. Sony's first party is on its A-game right now after decades of cultivation unlike MS who are preparing to attain the same status sometime inside the next gen but at the moment, lack the legacy. If Sony and MS have very similar specs and both go for $500 then Sony might take the cake right out of the gate.

2. MS's two tier system worries me because if the specs are significantly lower than Stadia then I wonder what it would mean for next gen fidelity and performance baseline.

3. MS's aim might to be sell a system that is notably more powerful than PS5 for the enthusiasts market to compensate for the lack of aforementioned 1st party power and to leverage performance gains for third party games as a selling point. And on the other end a cheaper SKU will be placed to undercut PS5.

4. Technologically where do the cloud services of both Sony and MS AND shrinking node fit in this equation?

5. Economically where do the cloud and online services fit in for both companies? Can either or both companies sell their machines at a loss per unit (at launch) that is made profitable within a specific time period when bundled with online services (like it happened with PS4 during the time of launch)? It helps to remember that MS has significantly deeper pocket that Sony.
 

Deleted member 49804

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,868
That's the ballpark 200-300 million..... for 343 employees only that doesn't include contract work which is much much harder to gauge the cost and amount of people so I won't bother.if we had exact headcounts year to year or exact costs per employee than the number could be narrowed down on.
This is highly off topic, but let me explain

I would not try to gauge anything of that, but rather look at publicly traded developers.
Because all expenses no matter what can be looked up.

Not 100% of 343 expenses are allocated to Halo Infinite. And that figure is way below for the early years in development. Overall headcount is lower, too during slow years.
So even if 343 payroll expenses are 3x of CD Project Red, Halo Infinite budget is still nowhere close to 200 - 300 million without contract work.

The upper end including contract work being $200 million is a figure that makes more sense.

KqldxY6.png
 
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grosbard

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
767
Factors to consider (imho alone):

1. Sony's first party is on its A-game right now after decades of cultivation unlike MS who are preparing to attain the same status sometime inside the next gen but at the moment, lack the legacy. If Sony and MS have very similar specs and both go for $500 then Sony might take the cake right out of the gate.

2. MS's two tier system worries me because if the specs are significantly lower than Stadia then I wonder what it would mean for next gen fidelity and performance baseline.

3. MS's aim might to be sell a system that is notably more powerful than PS5 for the enthusiasts market to compensate for the lack of aforementioned 1st party power and to leverage performance gains for third party games as a selling point. And on the other end a cheaper SKU will be placed to undercut PS5.

4. Technologically where do the cloud services of both Sony and MS AND shrinking node fit in this equation?

5. Economically where do the cloud and online services fit in for both companies? Can either or both companies sell their machines at a loss per unit (at launch) that is made profitable within a specific time period when bundled with online services (like it happened with PS4 during the time of launch)? It helps to remember that MS has significantly deeper pocket that Sony.

You're touching on what I believe to be the case. I know it's a not the most logical prediction but I believe anaconda is going to be priced the same as the ps5 while offering higher specs. Lockhart will be cheaper than the ps5 and be graphically inferior but not by much. Probably by about the same amount as the original ps4 and x1. I also won't be surprised at all if Microsoft takes a loss on anaconda hardware.
 
Oct 27, 2017
699
Next generation is going to be wild.
Lockhard $299
Ps5 $399
Anaconda $499

This is where it's going to be really interesting...

We know Anaconda is broadly on par with PS5 specifications due tech both will share.

Sony will want to defend their current market leading position and will sell the PS5 at a loss if necessary to do so. After the PS3 two jobs debacle I don't think Sony will have any appetite for higher prices and will subsidise if necessary. Praise the lord for all those loyal PSN subscribers that will be offsetting the hardware losses for everyone!

MS on the other hand can't take the risk that they overprice Anaconda and charge another $100 (or more) for a machine that has an almost identical spec to the PS5. Even though the corporate bean counters won't want to subsidise the launch price. If they fail to price match the PS5, Sony has a better than evens chance of leaving them in the dust again.

Forum chatter says that Anaconda will be the most expensive machine of the generation. I think that MS will have to launch it at an equivalent price to the PS5 rather than trying to command a premium which few will be willing to pay. MS have the weaker first party, weaker IP portfolio and smaller user base. They can't afford to have a price that isn't competitive if they have any hope of clawing back some users in the next generation. For now the "expensive" Anaconda narrative sits well with MS, so Anaconda will look like a "bargain" if/when they reveal coming in less than expected at $399.

It's going to be big game of corporate chicken. MS know Sony won't reveal first. So this is where we'll see if Phil Spencer can persuade the bean counters to subsidise the launch price or not (past history says "no chance!"). They really should because of all the other odds stacked against them already but will they?
 

Deleted member 721

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,416
You're touching on what I believe to be the case. I know it's a not the most logical prediction but I believe anaconda is going to be priced the same as the ps5 while offering higher specs. Lockhart will be cheaper than the ps5 and be graphically inferior but not by much. Probably by about the same amount as the original ps4 and x1. I also won't be surprised at all if Microsoft takes a loss on anaconda hardware.
probably both consoles will be sold at loss, ps4 was sold at loss, ps3 was sold at loss, they get the money back through online services and games sold
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
I would take that bet too. Basically, I think anaconda will be priced the same as the ps5.

Yes, I actually think Sony will concentrate on power more then PS4, in a way doubling down on one of the reasons that made the PS4 such a success, and with MS's correcting the course on to the road of power, they will end up at similar points.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
You're touching on what I believe to be the case. I know it's a not the most logical prediction but I believe anaconda is going to be priced the same as the ps5 while offering higher specs. Lockhart will be cheaper than the ps5 and be graphically inferior but not by much. Probably by about the same amount as the original ps4 and x1. I also won't be surprised at all if Microsoft takes a loss on anaconda hardware.

If anything, assuming both systems are priced the same and launching in the same time frame, I expect the PS5 to be stronger as Sony can take the bigger hit given the success of the PS4.
 

Hudsoniscool

Banned
Jun 5, 2018
1,495
This is highly off topic, but let me explain

I would not try to gauge anything of that, but rather look at publicly traded developers.
Because all expenses no matter what can be looked up.

Not 100% of 343 expenses are allocated to Halo Infinite. And that figure is way below for the early years in development. Overall headcount is lower, too during slow years.
So even if 343 payroll expenses are 3x of CD Project Red, Halo Infinite budget is still nowhere close to 200 - 300 million without contract work.

The upper end including contract work being $200 million is a figure that makes more sense.

KqldxY6.png
Firstly your 700 devs 30 million employees doesn't seam particularly relevant. They pay their employees 42k a year. Maybe that's good wages over in Denmark or wherever but that isn't what game devs in Seattle at Microsoft's are making.

Secondly I didn't say all of 343 are working on infinite. They had 450 employees in 2016 they have about 600 now(and still hiring like crazy) 200 million budget minus contract work would be 400 employees on it. Maybe there where less in 2016 but in 2019 probably more.

Anyway you seam to think the total budget for the game is around 200 million I think it's probably around 300 million maybe a bit more. Let's agree to disagree and move on, it's off topic anyway.
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
PS5 and Snek will be closer than we initially thought. I think the only big gaps will be between Lockhart and PS5/Snek. I can see a potential 4-6TF gap.

Edit - I'm thinking Lock will be ~8TF.
 
Last edited:
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
This is highly off topic, but let me explain

I would not try to gauge anything of that, but rather look at publicly traded developers.
Because all expenses no matter what can be looked up.

Not 100% of 343 expenses are allocated to Halo Infinite. And that figure is way below for the early years in development. Overall headcount is lower, too during slow years.
So even if 343 payroll expenses are 3x of CD Project Red, Halo Infinite budget is still nowhere close to 200 - 300 million without contract work.

The upper end including contract work being $200 million is a figure that makes more sense.

KqldxY6.png
What are the numbers on that table?
Did 343 spend $1568 in 2018 on materials and energy?
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,760
Question: With the projected specs people are tossing around for Lockhart, is a mobile variant at those power levels a possibility? I'm still curious about the possibility of a PS5 Portable.
 

2Blackcats

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,069
Question: With the projected specs people are tossing around for Lockhart, is a mobile variant at those power levels a possibility? I'm still curious about the possibility of a PS5 Portable.

That would be a way more interesting 2 sku approach. A PS5 and PS5 portable that plays a cut down version of every PS5 game.

Tech isn't there though.
 

pg2g

Member
Dec 18, 2018
4,804
I can't see a surprise being that special unless it was being released shortly after. Nobody cares about a surprise announcement of a product a year away.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
Different situations. Those were storage differences, not fundamental differences between the hardware, i.e. a better GPU in one over the other in the same product line.
Those were more superficial changes though. I'd expect a $100 delta isn't enough for a meaningful difference if we're looking at performance and not something like additional (or faster) storage.

So you are both on team $299 + $499?
 
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