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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
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Cell didn't have anything to do with Xenon. Xenon was basically 3 PPC5 chips glued together. Cell used one, but for different purposes.
But Microsoft doesn't see anything. Because Sony has a contract which says that AMD needs to keep this secret.
The whole thing is dubious but how exactly would Sony be getting fucked over? They'd still be getting exactly what they asked for lol
AMD will make/help you customize a chip with the features or goals you have in mind. They're not going to say "here have this chip it's a bit more powerful than what sony is going to use", it's illegal since all information is confidential.
Ok so it's possible the ps5 and anaconda could both have an AMD 8 core 7nm zen 2 based chip but each chip could be quite different based on the amount of custom features and clock speed Sony and Microsoft request AMD to build into the chip. Those custom features and clock speeds will not be discussed by AMD to each other's competitor. The only way Microsoft could guarantee that they have a better chip from AMD is if they somehow get inside info of what Sony is planning for the ps5 then build something better.
Is that basically correct?
Part of the contract is confidentiality. How is it confidentiality if a competitor can just role in and say give me better than what they asked for? NO ONE does business like this. And IBM got fucked for doing it once
Could you imagine a Flash game that lets you travel around a city in super speed with zero load times, insane.
That's the gist of it, yeah. Except for the last part because that would never happen. The only way to ensure a more powerful product is to build something so expensive that no sane competitor would match it. Otherwise you're just doing the best you can with whatever budget you have.
We had a thread about that EXACT topic locked. I'm taking anything Sams says with a metric ton of salt. Everything he said would fit perfectly in a push square article about ps5, just replace Halo with horizon 2
Agreed. That still isn't Sony getting fucked over. They would still be getting exactly what they ordered. But we won't agree so let's just drop this hypothetical pointless semantics discussion.
Yes, something like that. One of the rumor said that both will be using zen2 and Navi. You can also see that in current gen of consoles both use the same architectures in CPU and GPU but, they're different at the same time, one might have higher clocks and the other might have a better GPU, etc etc.
MS could guarantee a better chip by either waiting to release a couple of months later (example: xbox one x vs PS4 PRO) or spending more money, but that will also raise the cost of production of the console.
Interesting. Well, that completely changes my mindset.
How would it be possible to guarantee a better chip simply by spending more money if they don't know what Sony is doing and AMD won't tell them specifics?
My guess eh, but hardly this time will be significant difference in the power, even with an higher price. The only way, again, is release the hardware a year later but even for example with a price tag difference between 499 vs 599 bucks, it won't changes great things in terms of global performance. My opinion.
I wonder what the legal requirements are for AMD if MS asks "we want the most powerful GPU + CPU in a console on the market for the whole of 2020 and after, what will that take?"
I would imagine there is some nda amd have to obide by, can they also directly lie to ms?
Also I would of thought Sony + ms Cross paths with a lot of the same vendors, how many console PSU manufacturers can there be, if MS found out the power requirements of the PS5 it would give them a good idea what is possible power wise.
MS will know navis line up, and they will know which chip is possible in a sub 200watt box.
So with this knowledge and if the Navi rumours are true ms will assume Sony will be using the Navi 10 variant.
Once MS come to this conclusion there task will be to clock as high as possible (using Vapour chamber + Hovis method) therefore PS5 can't be more powerful if its using the same chip.
Sony could do the same but historically they have not gone for really high clocks and adding a fancy cooling method will add cost.
So the way I see it, is they will be either be extremely close (using a Similar Vapour chamber + high clocks) or ms will be more powerful and Sony will use there blower fan system and more conservative clocks.
Sony have taken this approach to there last 2 systems, I don't see why they would change things now.
The original PS4 historicaly was actually quite Conservative power wise.
It was a balance between price and power and size.
It's a tough call, its logical to think they will follow a similar philosophy but it's also logical to think that they are a bit more convident this time round and this gen has shown that power is still very much on the minds of gamers, the question is which area is more important to them, do they play the power game and launch at a higher rrp or do they have a strong value proposition right out the gate with $399.
Given sony's history and the interviews I've watched of shu, Andrew House, layden and cerny I think they will go with $399 again.
They know power is important, but I think strong value and the games are there main pillers.
MS can make some assumptions here
1) They know exactly the economics Sony is dealing with in regards to what AMD can offer them
2) they can assume Sony is taking a one SKU approach which means their solution must be able to ramp to high volume (no chip binning, they can't tolerate low yield and still supply the market)
3) assuming they have hard MSRP and loss per console thresholds. Sony's game division is more important to their parent company's profit than Xbox is to theirs
Unless Sony gets really creative, MS knows exactly what kind of box they're building.
If I'm not wrong the same Sony has claimed lately this time can bet to have more loses thanks to the psn revenues. So personally I wouldnt be surprise if in the end they will offer the best sku possible even at lower price (with even an higher clock than expected to their past standard).
Because they have budgets but I believe MS has more money to spend. So they could try to purchase a better (or more exotic) architecture, or maybe a faster CPU/GPU from the product line of AMD. They still wouldn't know what sony is doing (unless there's a leak obviously) but that would be a way to guarantee that you'll have a better product.
But like I said previously, that would raise the cost of production of the console and possibly the price for the final customer (us gamers), unless MS is willing to bite the bullet and sell at a bigger loss making the console accessible for everyone.
Would AMD be offering each company the same prices though? Considering Sony is at least currently set to buy considerably more chips?
I don't think MS is looking for global domination. I think they want to do better than last gen, pull in some new subs and release a console more powerful than PS5. None of that sounds impossible.
This is complete speculation from me, but I believe their cost structure is likely as follows
Non-Recurring Engineering (NRE): Design and validation services
Recurring costs: wafer cost - more or less paid directly by MS/Sony to TSMC/Samsung/ASE etc.
Royalty costs: fixed cost per unit sold.
I doubt there is a volume contingency. Perhaps a minimum to guarantee a floor on the royalties.
I never said that. I just say hardly there will be the same difference seen between the X and the Pro.
You said it won't change things as far as global performance. I said "no shit, I don't think MS is looking for that".
Good luck to them. I don't think it's feasible in same time frame.
Fair. I was assuming it would be a case of separate negotiations, with Sony as the current sales leader being in a better bargaining position with more leverage.
Well, nextgen starts fresh, so all that market leader talk does not mean anything if someone else puts up more money. All they can put out is sales projections and go from there.
Who else is Sony going to buy from?
Besides, AMD stands to benefit from a halo effect. Consoles doing well means more PC games optimized to their hardware, and enthusiast PC builders are a lucrative if small bunch.
Why do people think AMD would just casually violate their business contracts with a high profile, valuable customer? I've seen people repeatedly infer how AMD can "tip off" Sony or MS about the other's specs. I'm no business or legal expert, but even I can see how that would be disastrous to AMD when--not if--that comes out. Firstly, AMD would be sued to oblivion for violation of whatever contracts they signed with MS and/or Sony. Secondly, they would lose at least one highly valuable business partner and show other current and potential business partners that they cannot be trusted with sensitive information. It's a dumb, disastrous business move with no upsides no matter how you slice it. Yet some people are seriously thinking that that is a possibility.
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I don't get this thinking either but like you I am no expert in this field.
But wait, maybe AMD is being a double spy.
Maybe AMD winked at Xbox and said ok yours will be faster but then went back to Sony and said "They fell for it, yours will in fact be faster."
With BC helping ecosystem retention and just the general proven sales track record, I don't see why Sony couldn't at least have made an argument that they would be on track to sell at least 100 million PS5s, and try to increase their bulk discount based on that. But that's aiming there is a bulk discount to be had.
I figured Sony could potentially also go with Nvidia, or Intel. I don't necessarily think they would, but this is less about what they would do and more about what they could directly or indirectly convince AMD of at the negotiating table. But I'm probably off the mark.
They could, but Nvidia is fat off of high margin PC products, and they can't offer an all-in-one package solution like AMD can. Intel may be willing to play ball, but they actually have no excess fab capacity of their own to offer right now, and when they do get capacity, they probably view it as more crucial to maintain their PC and server foothold with the new threats from AMD.
Think there's still some bad blood after Nvidia fucked them over with the PS3 GPU.
Yes it could definitely happen.
But even having bigger investment I doubt either will go higher then Navi 10 special edition which will limit how powerful they can go.
One thing to note is that we already know PS5 is going to have a 8 core 7nm Zen2, so we already know that the hardware is not doing something unexpected regarding CPU.
Also Sony saying they can invest more thanks to psn subs, invest more compared to what? Is it going to a be bigger investment then they did for PS4?
Could Somone post a link or the graph itself of sony's past and future spending on Playstation, thanks.
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Next gen console CPU:
Still an open question for me is if the CPU will be 8C/8T or 8C/16T (SMT enabled) for the PS5. From the interview it is not entirely clear what they plan there.
Next gen console GPU:
Let's play the clock speed guessing game. The lower they are the better the NAVI architecture is compared to VEGA and POLARIS.
Still an open question for me is if the CPU will be 8C/8T or 8C/16T (SMT enabled) for the PS5. From the interview it is not entirely clear what they plan there.
Next gen console GPU:
Let's play the clock speed guessing game. The lower they are the better the NAVI architecture is compared to VEGA and POLARIS.
I agree.
I think "double SP" is very unlikely and would probably bring new issues with feeding the CUs.
However, I personally think they'll go for 80SP per CU. It is the only way I see the performance to reach the levels mentioned in the AdoredTV table.
I believe that only the entry-level Ryzen processors have SMT disabled, it would be quite strange if they disabled it on the consoles.
For GPU frequencies, my money goes to the 1200-1400MHz range.
Hopefully together with a small increase in SPs per CU. (80SPs / 25%)
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Something I was just wondering - have any GPUs ever used something similar to SMT?
Not to my knowledge. Mainly because you have so many processors with such small pipelines that it doesn't make much sense, or you're working with a VLIW architecture where your instruction set/compiler should be squeezing out most of the performance SMT would get you anyway.
Although, I guess rapid packed math or just generally going multiple smaller precision calculations at the same speed as a single larger calculation might be considered similar if you stretch your definitions far enough.
Maybe its right there in that table already.
There are obviously teo Navi 10's, the 48 CU Navi 10 and the 56 CU Navi 10 SE. My guess is that internally the lower CU version could be called the lite version.
I do think Sony will come in at $499. Cerny said it will come in at a price point that is attractive for what users will get. Which is a very careful and deliberate message. It's the exact thing you say when something is not "cheap". In this case, anything above $399 being not cheap
My personal thoughts:
1) If weaker version of xbox will be 4tf it will be huge disadvantage for microsoft. Some say its no problem cause it can be 1080p console and more powerful version 4k. But thats only if more powerful version is targetting native 4k. Targeting ~1440p - 1800p checkerbord to 4k and you can achieve more graphic complex games. But in this case what target resolution will be on 4tf machine - 720p in 2020-2027 ? ;)
2) If its true that xbox anaconda is more powerful than ps5 I assume gpu will be not much better but cpu could be 12 cores
1) If weaker version of xbox will be 4tf it will be huge disadvantage for microsoft. Some say its no problem cause it can be 1080p console and more powerful version 4k. But thats only if more powerful version is targetting native 4k. Targeting ~1440p - 1800p checkerbord to 4k and you can achieve more graphic complex games. But in this case what target resolution will be on 4tf machine - 720p in 2020-2027 ? ;)
2) If its true that xbox anaconda is more powerful than ps5 I assume gpu will be not much better but cpu could be 12 cores
I heard something like that but I tried to google it and I can't find anything.
That's the thing... its not possible to guarantee a better chip. Unless you explicitly know exactly what the competition is doing the you just do whatever you need to do to be better than them. But there is only so much you can do.
Look at the Navi GPU leak. Its already rumored that both consoles are using Navi 10. And what lends credence to that rumor i that if looking at the pice and TDP of the RTX 2080 Navi 10 in the table ($250 and 150W respectively) it falls well within the parameters of what sony or MS will put into a console. Even the Navi 10 SE that has a 180W TDP is doable. As it stands, net xboxbeing more expensive can only come down to sony going with the standard Navi 10 and MS going with the Navi 10 SE (which is shown to be about 15% more powerful.
Thats the only way any of this is possible now. the ONLY way. But if sony is also going with the Navi 10 SE, it doesn't matter how much money MS is throwing it anything they simply cannot get a better GPU than that that will fit into a console. Then the question becomes what kinda cooling is being used and how much RAM?
This is a much better explanation. Thank you!
Couldn't microsoft try to have some kind of modified version of whatever is the next architecture after zen2 or Navi?
I'm sorry but this is you adding bias to cenrys statement.
His statement could apply to $399 just as much as $499.
Infact his statement would apply more to $399 because gamers would find more value with that price compared to $499
No. That's not how the relationship works.
Sony had input into the PS5 APU, yes. The architecture that serves as the foundation of the design (Navi) is all AMD.
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