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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 250 15.4%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 681 42.0%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 675 41.6%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 17 1.0%

  • Total voters
    1,623
Mar 24, 2018
46
only a certain percentage of chips on a waffer are usable at all, and only a subset of those chips meet any performance target. the higgher you go, the less chips meet that target, and its a curve. also 7nm is a not meture node, so lowering yelds.
AdoreTV did some calculations on the yields for a possible PS5 chip, his calculations are 83% yield after salvaging chips with redundancy which is pretty good.
Here is a link if you want to take a look.
https://youtu.be/qgvVXGWJSiE?t=2416

Still, this is just guesstimation. Time will tell.
 
Oct 28, 2017
670
but sony chose to play very safe with the ps4 specs, only got the better hardware b/c ms messed up. I would assume they play it safe again.
That's the narrative today, but when the specs were released they weren't viewed as safe. Again, largest APU ever by AMD at the time. Heck, I'd argue that 10TF in 2020 isn't exactly going to blow anyone's mind, although it would definitely be solid. Being able to match the GTX2080 in performance (if Navi is able to bring efficiency up to nVidia level) would be amazing in a $400-$500 box., even if the 2080 is 2 years old by then.
 
Oct 27, 2017
865
That's the narrative today, but when the specs were released they weren't viewed as safe. Again, largest APU ever by AMD at the time. Heck, I'd argue that 10TF in 2020 isn't exactly going to blow anyone's mind, although it would definitely be solid. Being able to match the GTX2080 in performance (if Navi is able to bring efficiency up to nVidia level) would be amazing in a $400-$500 box., even if the 2080 is 2 years old by then.
the ps4 gpu was equvlent to a 750ti, what your saying is this time around sony is going to have a chip equivalent to a high end pc chip, and it will still be high end in 2 years, for 399? feel like thats pushing it a bit.
edit 2 years not 20 lol.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,046
AdoreTV did some calculations on the yields for a possible PS5 chip, his calculations are 83% yield after salvaging chips with redundancy which is pretty good.
Here is a link if you want to take a look.
https://youtu.be/qgvVXGWJSiE?t=2416

Still, this is just guesstimation. Time will tell.
I wouldn’t trust his yield calculations at all. Mostly because he has no industry sources or citations backing them up.
 
Im going with no more than 10. Were already getting a major processor upgrade.

A 1080ti is something like 11TF? Its a pretty expensive card.

They still have to fit a lot of things inside this box and do it between 399 and 499 USD. They are definitely going to take a loss on the hardware from the beginning. How much are they willing to go though?
 
Mar 24, 2018
46
I wouldn’t trust his yield calculations at all. Mostly because he has no industry sources or citations backing them up.
True, he is making the assumption that the yield will be around the same as 14nm had 2 years after it was made available.
Which is around the same amount of time that will have happened between 7nm availability and PS5 APU production.

I'd say somewhere between 70-80% if taking redundancy into account.
 
Oct 27, 2017
865
True, he is making the assumption that the yield will be around the same as 14nm had 2 years after it was made available.
Which is around the same amount of time that will have happened between 7nm availability and PS5 APU production.

I'd say somewhere between 70-80% if taking redundancy into account.
he doesnt factor in, that even workable chips, atleast on the gpu side, can still be rendered not up to spec. sony would have to be targeting a decent bit above what they are using per chip to keep yelds up.
 
Oct 28, 2017
670
the ps4 gpu was equvlent to a 750ti, what your saying is this time around sony is going to have a chip equivalent to a high end pc chip, and it will still be high end in 2 years, for 399? feel like thats pushing it a bit.
edit 2 years not 20 lol.
We haven't seen a 7nm GPU yet so we don't know what high end will look like on that process node. The PS4's GPU was a downclocked 7870 with 2 CU's disabled, which spec-wise is above a 750Ti but nVidia started making major efficiency gains with the Maxwell architecture. Also the 750Ti released 3 months after the PS4 came out.

I just wanted to know if you had any sourcing for claiming the 8-10 TF numbers, it's a perfectly valid opinion but still an opinion. I could see anywhere from 8-12 TF, probably closer to 10TF but hopefully with a huge efficiency gain to get closer to nVidia performance for the same TF numbers and power draw.
 
Oct 27, 2017
865
We haven't seen a 7nm GPU yet so we don't know what high end will look like on that process node. The PS4's GPU was a downclocked 7870 with 2 CU's disabled, which spec-wise is above a 750Ti but nVidia started making major efficiency gains with the Maxwell architecture. Also the 750Ti released 3 months after the PS4 came out.

I just wanted to know if you had any sourcing for claiming the 8-10 TF numbers, it's a perfectly valid opinion but still an opinion. I could see anywhere from 8-12 TF, probably closer to 10TF but hopefully with a huge efficiency gain to get closer to nVidia performance for the same TF numbers and power draw.
I wouldnt be shocked if we see a nvidia card on 7nm by end of year, if not early next. than we should have a idea of what 7nm can do since amd is focusing on consoles.
 
Mar 24, 2018
46
he doesnt factor in, that even workable chips, atleast on the gpu side, can still be rendered not up to spec. sony would have to be targeting a decent bit above what they are using per chip to keep yelds up.
If you mean "up to spec" is regarding the frequency, I don't think that is an issue.
Neither the CPU or GPU is running what we would consider high frequency, they'll be clocked far below what they can actually handle.
If the leaks are accurate regarding Zen2, all models except one will have base clocks above 3.2GHz and Vega 7nm is a decent hint on the capability there as well, the lowest clocked part is clocked at 1200MHz stock and 1746MHz boost.

Still. We can't be entirely sure at this moment since we need more information. We are only speculating and guessing based on what happened in the past, combined with what we know about 7nm TSMC and the little information we know about Zen2 and Navi.

I wouldnt be shocked if we see a nvidia card on 7nm by end of year, if not early next. than we should have a idea of what 7nm can do since amd is focusing on consoles.
We will probably see something regarding Navi during Computex at the end of May.
 
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Jun 14, 2018
2,124
Wouldn't require any magic for a 12TF console, "just" 500-549$.
13-14TFlops would start to get REAL pricey though, it would need a much beefier cooling system and faster GDDR6.

The way I see it, 8TF is a no go, 9TF is too little, 10TF is OK, 11TF is very good and 12TF is just not happening.
Coupled with the new CPU, even the "OK" 10TF.. It will be a great upgrade.
I agree even 9TF with zen2 cpu for $400 is good.
 
Feb 19, 2018
3,669
Im going with no more than 10. Were already getting a major processor upgrade.

A 1080ti is something like 11TF? Its a pretty expensive card.

They still have to fit a lot of things inside this box and do it between 399 and 499 USD. They are definitely going to take a loss on the hardware from the beginning. How much are they willing to go though?
sony just pulled out of e3, they arent scared, if anything they are aragent sony circa 2006, if anything that makes them play even more safe than they would. no reasson to spend more money than you have too.
Oh boy, "arrogant Sony". Yeah, even though respected people in the industry said that sony pulling out is more an indictment on the event itself and its significance than anything else. Besides. Last time we had "arrogant Sony" we got a $1000 product at a $600 price. So sure, let's go with arrogant
 
Mar 24, 2018
46
So how much TF could we expect if MS were to release a pricey console?
Depends on what you consider pricey, if they went completely insane and had AMD create a APU chiplet just for them.. It would be pretty damn expensive.

For a very high cost monolithic die, probably 12-13TFlops. Though at that point, it would probably be better to have a CPU and a dGPU as seperate chips.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
1,469
Depends on what you consider pricey, if they went completely insane and had AMD create a APU chiplet just for them.. It would be pretty damn expensive.

For a very high cost monolithic die, probably 12-13TFlops. Though at that point, it would probably be better to have a CPU and a dGPU as seperate chips.
So there is no way they could reach 15 and above?
 
Mar 24, 2018
46
So there is no way they could reach 15 and above?
The Vega 7nm card is reaching 13.8TFlops at 1800MHz and costs 800$, the only way they would reach 15TF+ would be if AMD made a Navi chip with 80CUs and 1500MHz+.

while this is a configuration we've talked about a few pages back, it would most likely run at 1100-1250MHz. Giving us 11.2-12.8TFlops.
Going higher would require a lot more memory bandwidth, power and a large cooler noisy cooler.
 
Oct 27, 2017
865
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-navi-e3-launch,38464.html

So apparently Navi could be announced at E3? All I could think of is on the Microsoft stage, but it would make zero sense to show off a GPU that sony supposedly helped design ground up on Microsoft's stage. Unless they unviel at the PC conference?
given that weird tweet from a ms exec, that isnt out of reason. the other is the pc conference, but I cant see it being big enough to reveal there. also there isnt a graphics architecture ms hasnt helped with, every gpu has to work with directx after all.
 
Mar 24, 2018
46
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-navi-e3-launch,38464.html

So apparently Navi could be announced at E3? All I could think of is on the Microsoft stage, but it would make zero sense to show off a GPU that sony supposedly helped design ground up on Microsoft's stage. Unless they unviel at the PC conference?
I really doubt Sony helped "design" the Navi GPU. They most likely did the same thing as when AMD was making Polaris, they made requests for specific features.

The only way that would work, is if they did a tease at Microsoft and did the announcement/launch at the PC gaming show.
There wouldn't be enough time to show off at the Microsoft conference and the PC gaming show can't take place before Sony/Microsoft since developers most likely doesn't want to do a "world premiere" at PC gaming show instead of the sony/microsoft.
 
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Mar 24, 2018
46
So what are we expecting from PS5? Are we getting a monster or a relatively weak ish PS5 like base PS4?

Cause as long as it’s at least better than the pro/X, I’m good.
Beast CPU, twice the frequency and much higher performance per clock.

Multi-threading performance around 5-7 times higher than the base PS4 or 5 times higher than PS4-Pro.
GPU will be around 5-6 times higher TFlops than base PS4 or around 2.5-3 times higher than PS4-Pro
 
Nov 12, 2017
1,987
but sony chose to play very safe with the ps4 specs, only got the better hardware b/c ms messed up. I would assume they play it safe again.
This makes no sense. PlayStation's financial situation is VASTLY better than it was following the PS3. That's doesn't necessarily mean they WON'T play it safe, but assuming they will?

Also, if Sony only had the better hardware because Microsoft messed up, don't you think Sony would realise that and not sit on their laurels this time?
 
Oct 28, 2017
3,582
2001
the expectation is a really good CPU, and a 10~12TF (likely on the lower part of this range) of the GPU.
8 to 10 tfps puts anywhere from a 1070 to 1080, not bad, in pratice b/c of lower overhead on consoles it gets closer to a 1080 ti in real world terms.
Beast CPU, twice the frequency and much higher performance per clock.

Multi-threading performance around 5-7 times higher than the base PS4.
GPU will be around 5-6 times higher TFlops than base PS4.
Awesome thanks guys. 👍🏻
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,309
Michigan
8 to 10 tfps puts anywhere from a 1070 to 1080, not bad, in pratice b/c of lower overhead on consoles it gets closer to a 1080 ti in real world terms.
A 1080 would not be enough to provide a generational leap in visual fidelity over current gen games. Especially when all games are going to be 4K across the board. Not even close. One X already performs close to or better than the 1070 in some games.
 
Oct 8, 2018
817
A 1080 would not be enough to provide a generational leap in visual fidelity over current gen games. Especially when all games are going to be 4K across the board. Not even close.
good, so games will not push native 4k and instead go with smarter methods of pushing resolution like checkerboard and dynamic resolution. ;p
 
Oct 27, 2017
865
A 1080 would not be enough to provide a generational leap in visual fidelity over current gen games. Especially when all games are going to be 4K across the board. Not even close.
what are you expecting on a apu? ignore cost for a second, you will run in to thermal limits before you get enough tfps to make a massive difrence. we are also at a point where art direction gets you more than a gpu power increasse.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,309
Michigan
good, so games will not push native 4k and instead go with smarter methods of pushing resolution like checkerboard and dynamic resolution. ;p
This is something that inevitably will happen if the next consoles do end up being around 8-10TF. I can see devs compromising IQ for higher visual fidelity and experimenting with new 3D techniques.

what are you expecting on a apu? ignore cost for a second, you will run in to thermal limits before you get enough tfps to make a massive difrence. we are also at a point where art direction gets you more than a gpu power increasse.
They can have a more efficient architecture by next year that can give significantly better performance at the same or less TDP.
 
Mar 24, 2018
46
A 1080 would not be enough to provide a generational leap in visual fidelity over current gen games. Especially when all games are going to be 4K across the board. Not even close. One X already performs close to or better than the 1070 in some games.
We will most likely be looking at checkerboarding with better quality than Horizon Zero Dawn had, which is fine by me.
If they managed that with 4.2TFlops, then 10TFlops allow for a decent jump in graphics as well.

The main upgrade this time, will be the CPU.
This changes game development on both consoles and PC gaming, greatly improved AI, physics and audio.


They can have a more efficient architecture by next year that can give significantly better performance at the same or less TDP.
I believe their next GPU architecture is going to be along the lines of Vega, a graphics card that also does a lot of compute for enterprise.
While it might perform well at gaming, it won't be the absolute best that it could have been.

The next arch is named Arcturus and is expected in late 2020 or mid-2021.
This Architecture is a completely different architecture due to leaving GCN behind, meaning their software is probably not going to be stable enough for a console in the early months of release. (in my opinion.)
Which would then mean we would probably have to wait until H2/2021 or H2/2022 for a console with the new architecture.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
502
This is something that inevitably will happen if the next consoles do end up being around 8-10TF. I can see devs compromising IQ for higher visual fidelity and experimenting with new 3D techniques.
It seems likely it is something that they'd use regardless of the teraflops, the benefits are just too good to pass up.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,157
A 1080 would not be enough to provide a generational leap in visual fidelity over current gen games. Especially when all games are going to be 4K across the board. Not even close. One X already performs close to or better than the 1070 in some games.


You know that the best we can get is slightly more than twice faster than an Xbox One X (gpu wise)
 
Mar 24, 2018
46
You know that the best we can get is slightly more than twice faster than an Xbox One X (gpu wise)
Which isn't that bad, considering it'll be the new baseline.
Games made for 12TFlops are going to look dramatically better than the games made for both sub-2TF and the mid-gen consoles at 4-6TF.
While 14TFlops is doable, it won't be at 400$.
 
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Nov 25, 2018
11
Oh boy, "arrogant Sony". Yeah, even though respected people in the industry said that sony pulling out is more an indictment on the event itself and its significance than anything else. Besides. Last time we had "arrogant Sony" we got a $1000 product at a $600 price. So sure, let's go with arrogant
What people? What are you going to say in 2020 if they return? Now E3 has significance a year later? I have seen a lot of people in the know scratching their heads, definitely more than anybody coming out and saying the show has no real significance any longer. The PR alone pays the cost of admission for Sony/Microsoft multiple times over.

No, Sony is not attending for another reason. Perhaps as other respected individuals have stated they have nothing new on the game front that isn't tied to the future PS5 and they aren't ready to announce the device at this years E3 so why attend only showing up with the same games as last year. That makes more sense than avoiding the biggest ball of the season. Showing the same games for the PS4 could easily be done at smaller PSX event. Or maybe it is true they want a Spring release and are avoiding the E3 to build up for a larger PSX event to do it later in the year. Who knows. But, the significance of the show is a copout, a silly excuse. Mark my words they will be back in 2020.
 
Oct 27, 2017
865
Which isn't that bad, considering it'll be the new baseline.
Games made for 12TFlops are going to look dramatically better than the games made for both sub-2TF and the mid-gen consoles at 4-6TF.
While 14TFlops is doable, it won't be at 400$.
amd's best gpu,which is 7nm, is only 12.6 tfpos I dont see that happening on a apu with thermal limitations.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,223
What people? What are you going to say in 2020 if they return? Now E3 has significance a year later? I have seen a lot of people in the know scratching their heads, definitely more than anybody coming out and saying the show has no real significance any longer. The PR alone pays the cost of admission for Sony/Microsoft multiple times over.

No, Sony is not attending for another reason. Perhaps as other respected individuals have stated they have nothing new on the game front that isn't tied to the future PS5 and they aren't ready to announce the device at this years E3 so why attend only showing up with the same games as last year. That makes more sense than avoiding the biggest ball of the season. Showing the same games for the PS4 could easily be done at smaller PSX event. Or maybe it is true they want a Spring release and are avoiding the E3 to build up for a larger PSX event to do it later in the year. Who knows. But, the significance of the show is a copout, a silly excuse. Mark my words they will be back in 2020.
Agreed.

If it was really about E3 not being relevant for them anymore, they wouldn't go back period. They didn't say that though. They said they won't be going this year in particular. As you said, that suggests they just aren't ready to reveal their hand yet.

Only 10TF would be slightly disappointing. I'd be willing to wait another year to have a better baseline console performance that's supposed to carry an entire gen for 6-7 years.
The TFs of the PS4 and X1 took us pretty far game wise this gen. I'm sure the same will apply to next gen regardless of how many TFs it ends up with. The number itself doesn't really matter. The baseline being far bigger compared to this gen is enough. This will especially be apparent when the exclusives come out.