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When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
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MaulerX

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,691
Considering Mark Cerny had this to say about the PRO... He basically suggested 8 tflops wasn't an afforadable option for the PRO (at the time) but in his mind would be the minimal requirement for native 4K rendering. No way in hell that Sony's just aiming for "minimal" requirements. People still want to see some kind of leap after a generation!

I say 10 tflops minimum, which roughly puts the PS5 at 5.5 x base PS4 (1,82 tflops).

In that case... Give me a PS5 Pro option from get-go.


That's what he thought but didn't the X sort of debunk that assertion? For me 4K would have been a bigger deal next gen if it weren't for the X. Now I'm just looking forward to better frame rates with more graphical bells and whistles.
 
Jan 17, 2019
964
That's what he thought but didn't the X sort of debunk that assertion? For me 4K would have been a bigger deal next gen if it weren't for the X. Now I'm just looking forward to better frame rates with more graphical bells and whistles.

Maybe 4k across the board 100%, not 4k for some titles like X1X has it, also in smaller amount like Pro too.
 

M3rcy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
702
  • Navi 10 is around RTX 2070 performance, smaller than Polaris die (232mm^2)
That should temper expectations if Navi 10 is indeed what is in consoles. However, hitting 2070 performance in half the die size (7nm vs 12nm) is still a big win for AMD.

Well, it doesn't seem as if you could get more than 64 CUs in a die that size (and then you disable some for yields), so you're relying on clocks to get your performance and that has power usage implications.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,710
I don't understand why people think Sony will launch PS5 earlier in the year than they did PS4. I'm not saying they couldn't or wouldn't, I'm saying I don't know what has changed between the time the PS4 launched and this launch that they would make a different choice this time. If anything, between Sony and MS, Sony have the least amount of incentive to end this generation and start the next.

The thought is they planned for Q4 2019 but have slipped, people are suggesting they launch Q1 2020 because a longer delay will not benefit them.

The Victor is always who has the best total package of certain components.
While games are the most important other things also need to be good in order to reach success.

The components are

  • Games
  • Price
  • Hardware power
  • features
  • Brand reputation
  • Launch date
  • Advertising campaign
  • Reliability in hardware, services and software.
Which ever platform get the best balance of superiority of these things, wins.

Good list, rubbish order ;)

The PS4 was also more powerful then the xbox one.

Even with the X the sales gap/ratio has remained consistent. MS having the most powerful console has not made a dent in the sales gap/ratio. Therefore it's likely power matters very little.

From a personal perspective I never had some ask me 'but which console has the best version of. X game?'.

Not saying it's not a factor, just probably a lot lower on your list...brand is much bigger IMO.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
The thought is they planned for Q4 2019 but have slipped, people are suggesting they launch Q1 2020 because a longer delay will not benefit them.



Good list, rubbish order ;)



Even with the X the sales gap/ratio has remained consistent. MS having the most powerful console has not made a dent in the sales gap/ratio. Therefore it's likely power matters very little.

From a personal perspective I never had some ask me 'but which console has the best version of. X game?'.

Not saying it's not a factor, just probably a lot lower on your list...brand is much bigger IMO.

It's an unordered list.
 
Feb 8, 2018
2,570
PS4 to PS4 Pro was a jump in 3 years from 1.84TF to 4.2TF which is more than double. Even a conservative guess of a similar jump 3 years later for the PS5 would put it at around 9.5TF. So I think 10TF range is what we will be looking at.

In addition to that power will likely matter to MS next-gen and you have a minimum of 10TF for sony
 

3bdelilah

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
1,615
For selfish reasons I hope fall 2020 at the very, very earliest. I still haven't bought a Pro yet.
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,897
PS4 to PS4 Pro was a jump in 3 years from 1.84TF to 4.2TF which is more than double. Even a conservative guess of a similar jump 3 years later for the PS5 would put it at around 9.5TF. So I think 10TF range is what we will be looking at.
Yep, it will be more than fine. When the games start coming out, folk won't be able to resist.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,754
Some questions...

- I know native 8K is likely out, but what about checkerboard 8K? What resolution would the consoles have to render at for CB 8K to be a possibility? Like it or not 8K TVs are coming so the next gen consoles having an option to cater to that crowd isn't necessarily a bad thing. And considering how close a good quality CB implementation can get to native 4K, an 8K CB implementation would be incredibly good looking.

- Where do the current rumors stand on the whole chiplet vs. monolithic chip situation for next gen?

- Given the fact that on PC we now have wireless VR headsets and foveated rendering, do you think it'll be economically feasible for Sony to include them in PSVR 2 if they launch that in 2021 or 2022?
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
The thought is they planned for Q4 2019 but have slipped, people are suggesting they launch Q1 2020 because a longer delay will not benefit them.

Yeah I don't buy it, they have more than enough coming to PS4 as it is that 2019 was never really a consideration. Late 2020 always made the most sense, all their big titles should be out by then and they'll have given their studios enough time to create at least teasers for what's to come.

Some questions...

- I know native 8K is likely out, but what about checkerboard 8K? What resolution would the consoles have to render at for CB 8K to be a possibility? Like it or not 8K TVs are coming so the next gen consoles having an option to cater to that crowd isn't necessarily a bad thing. And considering how close a good quality CB implementation can get to native 4K, an 8K CB implementation would be incredibly good looking.

- Where do the current rumors stand on the whole chiplet vs. monolithic chip situation for next gen?

- Given the fact that on PC we now have wireless VR headsets and foveated rendering, do you think it'll be economically feasible for Sony to include them in PSVR 2 if they launch that in 2021 or 2022?

There is a tiny, fleeting, fledgling possibility that maybe the mid gen refreshes consider doing 8k... but it's still highly unlikely.

4k tv adoption is just taking off, it'll be around the generation after PS5/XB2 that we might just possibly get to see 8k tv's just being introduced.
 

Bowl0l

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,608
One of the XBox hardware planners answered that before. They could always wait for better tech like every customer does but there are always better tech so they have to settle on the specs based on their design goal. e.g. are they focusing on 4k and for how much?
Both Microsoft and Sony already decided on their spec a long time ago. Because of that, they will stick to that goal. You don't see Ryzen in the X, right?
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,897
One of the XBox hardware planners answered that before. They could always wait for better tech like every customer does but there are always better tech so they have to settle on the specs based on their design goal. e.g. are they focusing on 4k and for how much?
Both XBox and Sony already decided on their spec a long time ago. Because of that, they will stick to that goal. You don't see Ryzen in the X, right?
The extra time can be used for software. It is important that is done right for launch.
 

M3rcy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
702
People should always keep in mind that the number of TFlops being listed for different parts is a theoretical maximum performance mark for doing the lowest-level type of calculation a GPU can do. If you are comparing two different spec parts with equivalent architectures you can apply the TFlop rating pretty reliably to determine a performance difference. Once the architectures you are comparing begin to differ, though, that metric becomes less reliable as every step that precedes the final calculations being done by the stream processors (or equivalent) can change how efficiently that performance potential is being used. In short, different architectures can do different amounts of actual work when allocated the same number of compute resources. Since we don't know in what ways Navi may have improved efficiency when processing gaming workloads over Polaris, we can't know what the actual gaming performance of a given TFlop rating would be.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
A 1080 is 314mm² though. Turing cards just have massive dies from the RT hardware. I feel it makes your die comparison an apples vs oranges comparison.

That's immaterial. 1xxx is EOL and Nvidia has committed to big die for their gaming GPUs. They'll always incur that cost and hope the RT/AI features catch on over time. What matters is what performance they can sell to gamers for profit.

Sounds like a good sign for potential Q4 launch?

Well, the re-spin made things worse in terms of timeline. The performance is good news though, yet it would launch regardless of that.
 

M3rcy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
702
One of the XBox hardware planners answered that before. They could always wait for better tech like every customer does but there are always better tech so they have to settle on the specs based on their design goal. e.g. are they focusing on 4k and for how much?
Both Microsoft and Sony already decided on their spec a long time ago. Because of that, they will stick to that goal. You don't see Ryzen in the X, right?

Hardware development isn't the only type of development and having additional time to get your supply and distribution chains ramped up isn't a bad thing either. You know how, at launch, consoles tend to be supply limited? Well what if they were less so? "Biggest launch sales ever" has a nice PR ring to it, no? "Simultaneous worldwide launch" is a pretty good one, too.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,620
Watertown, NY
None of what you said really effects my point, though.
While games are very important that does not mean what I said will not happen.
Also judging by where both companies first party studios are at, both could be competitive.

Halo infinite, forza motorsport, a fable game would be an amazing launch line up.

If you think Fable will be ready, that's well something.

If it is ready, then they are the fastest developer I've ever seen. Gears and halo are probably a lock since we've seen them.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,831
So does the small navi 10 die debunk the idea that we can go beyond 64cu? I hope this doesnt mean we will get an 8tf gpu
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,897
Are you suggesting console production to be halted because internal team AAA cannot get 100% performance out day one?
No, I'm only saying software will benefit from the extra time. I'm not only talking about game software either.

Hardware development isn't the only type of development and having additional time to get your supply and distribution chains ramped up isn't a bad thing either. You know how, at launch, consoles tend to be supply limited? Well what if they were less so? "Biggest launch sales ever" has a nice PR ring to it, no? "Simultaneous worldwide launch" is a pretty good one, too.
This is a good point too. There is a lot that goes into the launch and more time can only help.
 

Le Dude

Member
May 16, 2018
4,709
USA
Yeah I don't buy it, they have more than enough coming to PS4 as it is that 2019 was never really a consideration. Late 2020 always made the most sense, all their big titles should be out by then and they'll have given their studios enough time to create at least teasers for what's to come.

The currently announced games for PS4 lineup pretty well with what the PS3 got in the year leading up to the PS4 release. They've also barely announced any major new games in the past two years and they skipped having a PSX last year and indicated that they won't be showing up at this year's E3.

Additionally, some of the upcoming games were originally planned to release earlier, such as Days Gone and Dreams. If Days Gone and Dreams had released last year as initially indicated, that would only leave Death Stranding, The Last of Us 2, and Ghosts of Tsushima for the next two years. I find it hard pretty to believe that that was the original plan. They haven't been announcing nearly as much lately and they're skipping shows where they typically make announcements, so it doesn't seem likely that they have much more to show in the way of major releases.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
If you think Fable will be ready, that's well something.

If it is ready, then they are the fastest developer I've ever seen. Gears and halo are probably a lock since we've seen them.

If dev started in 2017, 3yrs dev times is plenty, so what are you talking about.

But even without fable, halo infinite and forza would be pretty great for launch.
Gears is 2019 x1 game.
 

Kenjovani

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,158
So much fan hyperbole. I cannot wait for Sony to come out swinging and continue providing great hardware, software and services. I am sure they will not disappoint and excel in many areas especially software as usual. I am also looking forward to their new controller and os.

I actually look forward to both console releases and what they will offer. A clean slate next gen will do wonders and I'm sure Microsoft will take advantage of the opportunity but we should all know Sony will not be just idoling along.
 

Bowl0l

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,608
Hardware development isn't the only type of development and having additional time to get your supply and distribution chains ramped up isn't a bad thing either. You know how, at launch, consoles tend to be supply limited? Well what if they were less so? "Biggest launch sales ever" has a nice PR ring to it, no? "Simultaneous worldwide launch" is a pretty good one, too.
I am only assuming that you meant Sony release the PS5 in Q2 2020 or 2021. Navi will be out this year in Summer if the rumours are right. Seems unlikely that Sony couldn't start mass production at the beginning of this year if Navi, a PS5 byproduct(rumor too) is ready for production. If Sony's supply/distribution chain can't get ready in one year, they will never be ready.

No, I'm only saying software will benefit from the extra time. I'm not only talking about game software either.
OS features? Sony didn't mind for the PS3 and PS4 during launch day. Network? Already established.
 
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anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
Heres hoping that the ps5 will push more than 1GHZ then

But isnt the ps5 based on navi 10? Navi 20 doesnt matter here.
For the leaked part, no, but we already knew that was Navi 10. We could reasonably guess it wasn't more than 64CUs based on the price and TDP already leaked ($250, 150W). It would be quite a stretch to imagine half the power and more CUs than Vega.
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
The currently announced games for PS4 lineup pretty well with what the PS3 got in the year leading up to the PS4 release. They've also barely announced any major new games in the past two years and they skipped having a PSX last year and indicated that they won't be showing up at this year's E3.

Additionally, some of the upcoming games were originally planned to release earlier, such as Days Gone and Dreams. If Days Gone and Dreams had released last year as initially indicated, that would only leave Death Stranding, The Last of Us 2, and Ghosts of Tsushima for the next two years. I find it hard pretty to believe that that was the original plan. They haven't been announcing nearly as much lately and they're skipping shows where they typically make announcements, so it doesn't seem likely that they have much more to show in the way of major releases.

Even if Dreams and Days Gone had come out last year I'd still see the same trajectory as I do now. I don't see them wanting to release a PS5 this year when they have 3 major titles still to drop on PS4.

At the very least I feel they'd want to get TLOU2 out before PS5 hits, and that is coming out at the very earliest Summer 2020.

It's not like Microsoft is in any different position, for the rest of the current gen their major games are Halo & Gears, yet there's no rumblings of a 2019 Scarlet release from them.

I think late 2020 was the goal all along, it just lines up too well with everything.
 

CosmicBolt

Self-Requested Ban
Member
Oct 28, 2017
884
So much fan hyperbole. I cannot wait for Sony to come out swinging and continue providing great hardware, software and services. I am sure they will not disappoint and excel in many areas especially software as usual. I am also looking forward to their new controller and os.

I actually look forward to both console releases and what they will offer. A clean slate next gen will do wonders and I'm sure Microsoft will take advantage of the opportunity but we should all know Sony will not be just idoling along.
Yeah man, Sony have clever engineers they will put together powerful hardware at reasonable price.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,018
Florida
Oh boy, "arrogant Sony". Yeah, even though respected people in the industry said that sony pulling out is more an indictment on the event itself and its significance than anything else. Besides. Last time we had "arrogant Sony" we got a $1000 product at a $600 price. So sure, let's go with arrogant

That played games worse than it's cheaper competitor. Sound familiar?
 

Detective

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,852
I wanna get minimum 15TF, above 60hz and support for ultrawide. What are the chances am getting those? :D
 

M3rcy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
702
I am only assuming that you meant Sony release the PS5 in Q2 2020 or 2021. Navi will be out this year in Summer if the rumours are right. Seems unlikely that Sony couldn't start mass production at the beginning of this year if Navi, a PS5 byproduct(rumor too) is ready for production. If Sony's supply/distribution chain can't get ready in one year, they will never be ready.

OS features? Sony didn't mind for the PS3 and PS4 in launch date. Network? Already established.

It was stated there would be "no benefit" to launching later. There are, so that was an incorrect statement. The calculation on Sony's side would be, "Would the benefits of launching later exceed the benefits of launching earlier?" Given that recent precendant has been to launch in primary territories in fall, I'd say the burden of proof lies on showing why the planning for this gen would be different than the last two (plus the mid-gen in between) for both Sony and MS. The last three if you only consider the US.
 
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