Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,289
Microsoft is probably going with $499 too, so consumers will have no option. The problem is going for $499 alone.

That said, it would be smart to have a streaming based cheaper console like Microsoft is currently planning to.
The cheaper console is not streaming based though, just a cheaper , less powerful sku

I think PS5 will be $399, 10-12 TF
 

Poison Jam

Member
Nov 6, 2017
1,694
I think being under 10tf is a mistake but at least the CPU won't hold back games like they currently are. 8tf 3-4 years post launch could be disappointing even in the hands of some really talented studios.
Sure. but at least 2 of those tflops will go into running the game at either 1440p to checkerboard 4k. That leaves us with 6 tflops. Only a 3x increase from base PS4. thats not nearly enough for a generational jump.
Oh, agreed. I expect at least 10 TFLOPS and for next-gen consoles to at least match my GTX 1080. 8 TFLOPS is a minimum, but a good CPU and high bandwidth could make it viable.

If they're first to market, and with a low price, it could be enough to get people aboard and invested in the platform. It'll sell well on name alone.
 

dgrdsv

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,308
Msk / SPb, Russia
8TFLOPS would be very disappointing

I hope Sony goes for $499
Consider that AMD has gone on record that PC Navi parts will launch this year and they will be slower than soon-to-be available Radeon VII.
RVIII has 11 TFlops peak at base clock of 1450 MHz.
This means that desktop Navi part launching this year will probably have less than that which means less than 10 TFlops likely.
This also means that console Navi part - which will probably be clocked considerably lower than the desktop one - will have even less than that.

8 TFlops are totally possible. Peak math throughput however is a bad metric when comparing performance. Consider that RTX 2070 is only around 7,5 TFlops which doesn't stop it from being close to Vega 64 with its ~13.
It's impossible to tell how a future console with an 8 Tflops GPU would perform without knowing other details of the architecture.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,197
Theres no doubt that sony has a strong reputation and built strong consumer confidence in mainland Europe.
But the 360 sold very well in mainland Europe, so people there are not opposed to buying a MS console.
Also while Sony has a strong reputation and consumer confidence in EUROPE that does not mean people in Europe have formed some lifetime alligence to Sony.
Sony has strong consumer confidence in Europe because of the choices they made and the products they brought to market.
If MS makes products that appeal to European consumers they can have great success, its not like the xbox one is completely dead in Europe, it has sold 1+million units in mainland Europes biggest countries.

If MS make hardware and software which is as compelling as sony's, some people will choose xbox over Sony and vice versa.
I guess it all depends on what you meant by 'greatly increase' - I'm not saying they couldn't increase their figures in Europe...'greatly' is the debatable part...so it depends what you mean.
 
Console manufacturers fiscal year earnings

Rösti

Member
Oct 25, 2017
421
Earnings releases in about a week.

Sony FY2018 Q2 Earnings Announcement
February 01, 2019
Conference call at 17:15 JST.



https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/index.html

Microsoft FY19 Q2 Earnings
January 30, 2019
Conference call at 2:30 PM PT



https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/2w72myk5
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor

Also, Nintendo's FY 2018 Nine Months Earnings Release is scheduled for January 31 with a Corporate Management Policy Briefing the day after likely (CMPB to be confirmed, there will be a briefing nonetheless). Perhaps we could get some information on the Pro and Lite versions of Nintendo Switch then, at least analysts will have the opportunity to ask.
 

space_nut

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,795
NJ
Off course Sony knows how to design a console. Anyone who says otherwise are kidding themselves.

One thing I noticed in your posts though. When it comes to Xbox One X and PS4 Pro, the X only brute force the specs. But when it comes to Xbox One and PS4, the PS4 is better designed. Just found it funny. There’s more than brute forcing the specs in X, just like it’s the case with the PS4, but whatever.
What are you talking about?! Hovis method,vapor chamber cooling, thousands of straineous testing on game engines to find bottlenecks to customize chip, quietest, smallest, console designed was “bruteforced”!! /s :p
 

Ōkami Haundo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,699
PA - US
I'm still not convinced that Anaconda is going to have an Xbox One X-level advantage over PS5. I'm leaning more towards PS5 and Anaconda being damn close in price and specs. That makes Lockhart seem even more interesting as well.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,197
You can not deduce anything meaningful from consoles that launched during a different timeframe than the competition. PS2 launched in March 4, 2000. Xbox launched in November 15, 2001. Some 19 months later. The Xbox One X launched a full year after PS4 Pro and cost $100 more (Sony's design goal with the Pro was openly modest). The only console that breaks this pattern is PS3, which remarkably launched after the 360, cost more, and was a bloody headache to work with (a true exception in every sense).

The only systems that launched within days of each other is PS4 and Xbox One. They even fall within the same price range as one another once you subtract Kinect.
This. And least we forget RRoD. I know PS3 wasn't perfect but...

They could double there xbox one numbers there.
Yes, maybe... because it's sold significantly less than 360. So what you're saying is XBtwo could get MS back to where they were with 360?

Possibly...but still quite hard, PS3 launched a year later and was incredibly expensive. Also the face offs were showing 360 winning all the time and it had some great exclusives.

Essentially 360 had everything going for it and I'm fairly certain XBtwo won't... because Sony won't make the same mistakes IMO.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,084
There is no reason for consoles to not go for EUV as soon as those become available. It's a cost reducing and possibly perf enhancing refinement of the node.
It doesn’t reduce cost initially. The reduction in process steps will be offset by the challenges in bringing the node up, and the pellicule issue remains. It only makes sense to use it when it’s cost effective and available in volume.
With that being the case, do you think 7nm+ will have a big presence for HPC? If AMD's next generation chip design is slated for 2021, would its design likely get ported to 5nm? A high-end Navi makes sense in 2020 if AMD is skipping 7nm+ in the GPU space all together.



I think the bigger issue would be the chips they are using. It doesn't look like AMD plans to port Navi or Zen 2 to 7nm+. Their next-gen GPU architecture is still planned for 7nm+ (though I'm questioning that right now), and Zen 3 is a 7nm+ design. If they are using an EUV processes, it would make more sense for them to use designs that AMD has already invested R&D on for that node than to pay AMD for R&D to port existing designs over. I'm only saying this because it was previously stated in the thread that 7nm and 7nm+ are not directly compatible nodes.
No. Zen 3 is planned for 7nm+, but given the small jumps, I can see GPUs skipping it all together at this point.
What advantage(s) does 6 have over 5? I assume the price variance doesn't change when the economies of scale kick in.
It greatly enhances pJ/bit and the peak transfer rate is much higher, making GDDR6 solutions competitive with low stack count HBM2 solutions.
 

Colbert

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,688
Germany
Consider that AMD has gone on record that PC Navi parts will launch this year and they will be slower than soon-to-be available Radeon VII.
RVIII has 11 TFlops peak at base clock of 1450 MHz.
This means that desktop Navi part launching this year will probably have less than that which means less than 10 TFlops likely.
This also means that console Navi part - which will probably be clocked considerably lower than the desktop one - will have even less than that.

8 TFlops are totally possible. Peak math throughput however is a bad metric when comparing performance. Consider that RTX 2070 is only around 7,5 TFlops which doesn't stop it from being close to Vega 64 with its ~13.
It's impossible to tell how a future console with an 8 Tflops GPU would perform without knowing other details of the architecture.
this.
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,195
If you gonna include hard drive and network for OG Xbox vs PS2, you need to include the PS3 came with Wifi, the 360 originally didnt. And the PS3's user replaceable hard drive.

And Sony choosing Blu Ray over HD DVD.

I already included the main thing with the One X vs the Pro...brute forcing the power advantage with bigger numbers.

As for PS4 vs XBO when they launched, Kinect just made the price $100 more, thats it. The PS4 was designed better, the power advantage tell us this. PS4 designed better, XBO messed up with the OG XBO, same thing. And they tried to course correct with the One S. Still didnt work.

The main take away is....Sony knows how to design a console.
Of what benefit would it be for Microsoft to have HD DVD or Blu Ray on their console last generation? None. For Sony it was imperative that they have it on their console to push a next generation physical disc based media format to succeed DVD. They accomplished that. The only downside is that digital took over and Blu Ray will never be as ubiquitous as DVD was. It will make money, just not the huge amount of money that used to be made prior.

The brute force statement is also a stretch. If all Microsoft wanted was to push a console that was going to do 1440p, then they launch a console at the same moment as the PS4 Pro. That was not their aim, their aim was to try and get native 4K and they built a console around that.

Both know how to design a console. It all simply depends on what you are looking to achieve, and sometimes, one gets lucky with tech or unlucky for that matter.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,301
Off course Sony knows how to design a console. Anyone who says otherwise are kidding themselves.

One thing I noticed in your posts though. When it comes to Xbox One X and PS4 Pro, the X only brute force the specs. But when it comes to Xbox One and PS4, the PS4 is better designed. Just found it funny. There’s more than brute forcing the specs in X, just like it’s the case with the PS4, but whatever.
What are you talking about?! Hovis method,vapor chamber cooling, thousands of straineous testing on game engines to find bottlenecks to customize chip, quietest, smallest, console designed was “bruteforced”!! /s :p
Pretty sure I was talking about brute forcing in regards to the power difference between the mid gen refreshes vs the base consoles..... the esram situation in the XBO....that MS went away from with the One X.

When the base consoles are damn near identical and one has ___ power advantage, then the mid gen refreshes come out, one has alot more ram and a couple of tf more and has ___ power advantage...

How can the mid gen refresh not be seen as brute forcing for the power difference? Its not so much a negative against MS, but a plus for Sony...that they know how to design a console......


Of what benefit would it be for Microsoft to have HD DVD or Blu Ray on their console last generation? None. For Sony it was imperative that they have it on their console to push a next generation physical disc based media format to succeed DVD. They accomplished that. The only downside is that digital took over and Blu Ray will never be as ubiquitous as DVD was. It will make money, just not the huge amount of money that used to be made prior.

The brute force statement is also a stretch. If all Microsoft wanted was to push a console that was going to do 1440p, then they launch a console at the same moment as the PS4 Pro. That was not their aim, their aim was to try and get native 4K and they built a console around that.

Both know how to design a console. It all simply depends on what you are looking to achieve, and sometimes, one gets lucky with tech or unlucky for that matter.
Exactly....they both had different goals. Last gen and this gen.

Main take away....Sony knows how to design a console. I didnt think I needed to mention MS knew how to. That wasnt what was I replying to.
 
Last edited:
Oct 27, 2017
2,448
Florida
If you gonna include hard drive and network for OG Xbox vs PS2, you need to include the PS3 came with Wifi, the 360 originally didnt. And the PS3's user replaceable hard drive.

And Sony choosing Blu Ray over HD DVD.

I already included the main thing with the One X vs the Pro...brute forcing the power advantage with bigger numbers.

As for PS4 vs XBO when they launched, Kinect just made the price $100 more, thats it. The PS4 was designed better, the power advantage tell us this. PS4 designed better, XBO messed up with the OG XBO, same thing. And they tried to course correct with the One S. Still didnt work.

The main take away is....Sony knows how to design a console.
Actually the XBOX One used ESRAM for low latency speed for Kinect processing which took up a lot of die space. That shrunknthe GPU space and here we are. The Kinect was the fuckup. All people wanted was a just dance or streaming camera.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,301
Actually the XBOX One used ESRAM for low latency speed for Kinect processing which took up a lot of die space. That shrunknthe GPU space and here we are. The Kinect was the fuckup. All people wanted was a just dance or streaming camera.
Right, exactly.

Different goals lead to the consoles being designed differently. Different goals with the base consoles, different goals for the mid gen refreshes...

I didnt think what I said would be so controversial, lol.
 

Marmelade

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,105
Consider that AMD has gone on record that PC Navi parts will launch this year and they will be slower than soon-to-be available Radeon VII.
RVIII has 11 TFlops peak at base clock of 1450 MHz.
This means that desktop Navi part launching this year will probably have less than that which means less than 10 TFlops likely.
This also means that console Navi part - which will probably be clocked considerably lower than the desktop one - will have even less than that.

8 TFlops are totally possible. Peak math throughput however is a bad metric when comparing performance. Consider that RTX 2070 is only around 7,5 TFlops which doesn't stop it from being close to Vega 64 with its ~13.
It's impossible to tell how a future console with an 8 Tflops GPU would perform without knowing other details of the architecture.
Yeah but can we really expect Navi, another GCN iteration, to be that much more efficient an architecture?
AMD's track record hasn't been exactly great on this front the last few years.

(and a 7.5TF 2070 isn't just close to 12.7TF Vega, it beats it, which shows just how much they're behind right now)
 

Detective

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,382
I'm still not convinced that Anaconda is going to have an Xbox One X-level advantage over PS5. I'm leaning more towards PS5 and Anaconda being damn close in price and specs. That makes Lockhart seem even more interesting as well.
That would be stupid imo.
If they are going with two sku’s they need to have one above and one close or under.
One premium and one entry level.
Or they could end up with anaconda being left out and people will buy the lower version to get into Xbox + PS5 for best Multi.
 

Ōkami Haundo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,699
PA - US
That would be stupid imo.
If they are going with two sku’s they need to have one above and one close or under.
One premium and one entry level.
Or they could end up with anaconda being left out and people will buy the lower version to get into Xbox + PS5 for best Multi.
You are certainly entitled to your own opinion. I feel it would be far more likely that Anaconda gets overlooked as a "premium" console that runs $100 more than PS5. I'd rather see the two be closer to parity on the hardware front with smart software and service choices making up the difference.

Your example scenario honestly seems like a great one for Microsoft though! A customer who would normally buy just a Playstation console ends up buying both due to the lower-priced Xbox SKU.
 
Dec 31, 2017
244
Next gen games are not current gen games with "ultra settings". That has never been the case historically, what makes you think it will be the case in the future?

You're exactly the kind of person who would have claimed that the PS4 would never get 8Gb of RAM in 2012.

Want to take an avatar bet? I'll bet you the PS5 has more than 16Gb RAM.
PS5 won't have more than 16GB of GDDR6 imo, anything else extra will be DDR4 and used for the OS. And we've already seen what next gen looks like, it's called the Xbox One X. The only difference is you'll have higher framerates, all consoles will now have high quality textures like the X does thanks to a bigger ram pool, no more half framerate animations from afar, lod will be increased, I still expect AA to be low though compared to PC because it is too demanding. The X was just a little taste. If you wanna see next gen just load up BFV on an RTX 2080 ti with Raytracing on and you'll get a good idea of what we should be expecting.

better CPUs is what will define next gen as there isn't any new tech in the PC world right now that could be included in nextgen consoles to truly make a paradigm shift, except for ray tracing, and I don't see that happening unless Sony and MS are working on it with AMD as their secret sauce by having a separate chip designed exclusively for that (like the tensor cores do) but that would most likely bring up the cost a little.

DLSS is a thing now for a pretty good reason! 4K at a high fps is hard to reach even on very beefy GPUs, which is why even Nvidia has their own solution to upscale games in a way that gives you the feel of 4k why adding in more features like raytracing. So if PCs have to do it this way, just think about what it means for consoles!

As well, SSDs should define next gen. No more waiting 4-5 minutes for Sea of Thieves to load while on my PC it takes 30 seconds.

Improvements in the tech aren't advancing as fast as it used to. People still expect the new consoles to be 3-4 times more powerful and have 3-4 times more memory, when in reality we will most likely get 1.5-2 times max the amount of power as the mid gen refreshes. Only difference is 4k will be more of the norm and higher refresh rates will also be happening more often thanks to beefier CPUs.
 

DudleyBoi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
904
ATL
You are certainly entitled to your own opinion. I feel it would be far more likely that Anaconda gets overlooked as a "premium" console that runs $100 more than PS5. I'd rather see the two be closer to parity on the hardware front with smart software and service choices making up the difference.

Your example scenario honestly seems like a great one for Microsoft though! A customer who would normally buy just a Playstation console ends up buying both due to the lower-priced Xbox SKU.
Microsoft might make more money in the long term with more people investing into a cheaper, streaming-only, console. Microsoft is now positioned as a services company, with anything incentivizing you to be locked into their services being a huge win. If you own a streaming only console, you are pretty much locked buying for Microsoft's store, more likely to pay for their Game Passes, and will be more prepared/conditioned to invest in other Microsoft services.

Microsofts new desire to push Xbox as a brand more so than a reference to dedicated hardware is a smart one. Xbox will be a gateway to any other service they would want to market to their customers.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,289
Microsoft might make more money in the long term with more people investing into a cheaper, streaming-only, console. Microsoft is now positioned as a services company, with anything incentivizing you to be locked into their services being a huge win. If you own a streaming only console, you are pretty much locked buying for Microsoft's store, more likely to pay for their Game Passes, and will be more prepared/conditioned to invest in other Microsoft services.

Microsofts new desire to push Xbox as a brand more so than a reference to dedicated hardware is a smart one. Xbox will be a gateway to any other service they would want to market to their customers.
The cheaper, base SKU (Lockhart) , is not the streaming console though.

The Streaming console is rumored (confirmed?) to come later by Brad Sams, who's been a reliable source
 
Dec 31, 2017
244
The cheaper, base SKU (Lockhart) , is not the streaming console though.

The Streaming console is rumored (confirmed?) to come later by Brad Sams, who's been a reliable source
People who buy cheaper consoles though are usually not ones to buy dozens of games per year, so in that sense I think a service like Gamepass makes a lot of sense for the price conscious buyer, effectively getting them tied up in the MS ecosystem using their services.
 

headspawn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,376
It's probably coming and releasing in 2020, but I still hope they hold out to 2021-2022 (purely because I'd like to see a bigger jump in tech).
 
Dec 31, 2017
244
It's probably coming and releasing in 2020, but I still hope they hold out to 2021-2022 (purely because I'd like to see a bigger jump in tech).
Considering like what, maybe 5-10, let's say being generous that 15% of buyers went for the mid gen refreshes, that still leaves 85% of people, or if we put PS4+Xbox One number, close to 100 million people who would go from 1.3-1.8Tflops to 8-10Tflops. I'd say that it'll be a big enough jump in power for most of them! :P
 

console lover

Member
Feb 19, 2018
5,324
Microsoft's marketing of the Xbox One X may have inadvertently broke some people.
Like aeriously. Xbox 1 to 1x is like stepping up from corolla to a Camry and people are losing their shit over the heated seats and trunk space. Like crikey. Spent extra on cooling (nothing exotic), pushed clocks, used GPU features that were not available to Sony a year prior. It's the most premium console to date but geez, year later and $100 more will win you that battle everytime
 

console lover

Member
Feb 19, 2018
5,324
That would be stupid imo.
If they are going with two sku’s they need to have one above and one close or under.
One premium and one entry level.
Or they could end up with anaconda being left out and people will buy the lower version to get into Xbox + PS5 for best Multi.
No one knows what the other side is holding beyond the limitations of the architecture they are working with. It is impossible to garauntee being most powerful unless they eat cost or it costs more. Which icouod see them do to be honest
 

Xeontech

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,897
You realize last gen gpu’s were being oc’d to 14 tf on stock cooling right.

With a die shrink and power efficient Navi architecture, we haven’t seen what they can do for a custom APU yet, even with much lower clock

Lol 7.5tf
 

c0de

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
3,202
Actually the XBOX One used ESRAM for low latency speed for Kinect processing which took up a lot of die space. That shrunknthe GPU space and here we are. The Kinect was the fuckup. All people wanted was a just dance or streaming camera.
This is not the story I heard. Xbox used Esram because devs wanted 8gb of RAM and thus they designed the system. They knew they would have to have also fast memory but at that time this took a huge amount of the soc and so they didn't have more space for the GPU.
 
Dec 31, 2017
244
Like aeriously. Xbox 1 to 1x is like stepping up from corolla to a Camry and people are losing their shit over the heated seats and trunk space. Like crikey. Spent extra on cooling (nothing exotic), pushed clocks, used GPU features that were not available to Sony a year prior. It's the most premium console to date but geez, year later and $100 more will win you that battle everytime
Let's say they'd have released a year later at 400$ instead of 500$, what would the difference in power have been?

It took an extra 100$ to get you 1.8Tflops extra and 4GB of extra GDDR5 on an architecture that's been known and most likely cheaper to produce by now and a bit of extra cooling (which will hopefully become the norm next gen).

So if it cost them that much to add so little, I'm trying to see how people are expecting such a huge jump in specs and crazy things like 32GB of RAM only 3 years later. We already know what Ryzen can do, Navi we don't, but AMD's track record is pretty bad and they lack ressources. At this point I wouldn't even be surprised if they get eclipsed by Intel's GPUs in 2020.

PC parts used to get better exponentially quite quickly and at low prices. Recent generations of CPUs from Intel and even AMD as well as GPUs from both Nvidia and AMD have show that increments have been much smaller and prices have been going up much faster. This will definitely be reflected in consoles imo considering they use the same architectures and parts, only they are custom packaged to fit in a console with a smaller thermal envelope.

It's better to keep expectations in check imo and hope areas like SSDs for example and dedicated raytracing hardware do show up, or else I think a lot of people here will be disappointed.
 

kostacurtas

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,412
This data comes from GDC’s State of the Game Industry 2019 report, which polled nearly 4,000 developers, giving an indicative, but not perfectly accurate, look at what many developers around the world are up to. Specifically, about 16 percent of developers said they are working on games for both existing and unannounced platforms, while only 2 percent said they are working exclusively on unannounced platforms.
 

Ōkami Haundo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,699
PA - US
Interesting! Made even more interesting by another quote in the article:

Naturally, this leaves the majority of developers working on currently announced platforms, as 46 percent of respondents said they are making games exclusively for existing platforms, and the rest said they didn’t know at this time.
In summary:
- 4000 GDC attendees were polled about what platforms they're working on games for
- 16% said games for existing and unannounced platforms
- 2% said games exclusively for unannounced platforms
- 46% said games exclusively for existing platforms.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.