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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
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This is sadly the truth.
This also means until that happens ray tracing won't become common place and would merely be an additive feature rather than a game being built around it. There will be exceptions to the rule ofcourse but it certainly won't be super frequent that it pops up in most games.
What some code names? We know as much about the next Xbox then we do the next PS. Unless you can point to something exact about the specs and features of the next Xbox a few names of projects means very little. Especially on the likelyhood those plans are fluid and may change. I mean haven't we heard from multiple sources that Sony is planning to integrate more VR features directly into the system itself? Are those controlled releases? Is there something comprable from those so called "leaks" on the MS side that gives us some tidbit about inside hardware features? I am just curious because to me a few project names is fluff and means very little.
The main prediction why it would've been Zen+, but not Zen2 were the LLVM commits for Zen by sony API programmers. And many thought that if Zen2 is significantly different it may mean, that the code won't be compatible. But according to more recent finds they are utilizing new AVX instructions which are only supported by AMD in Zen2
Pardon? Have a source?
Sony wouldn't make commits for a processor that hasn't been publicly disclosed, and AVX512 support for Zen2 has yet to be confirmed by AMD.
I believe ray tracing for next gen consoles is totally possible if Navi architecture has this feature.
In two days the RTX 2060 will launch. A $349 GPU with ray tracing.
Are we expecting that next gen consoles in 2020 will have a worst GPU? I am not.
AMD confirmed at CES that they are working on ray tracing so it depends on how that will progress.
In two days the RTX 2060 will launch. A $349 GPU with ray tracing.
Are we expecting that next gen consoles in 2020 will have a worst GPU? I am not.
AMD confirmed at CES that they are working on ray tracing so it depends on how that will progress.
Galyonkin pretty explicitly said this in his recent podcast https://kdicast.com/ He also confirmed that originally Sony planned for 2019 release, but good sales allowed/forced them to delay the release.
https://reviews.llvm.org/D55603
I know that AMD did not confirm it, but this kinda looks like a sort of confirmation for me.
Actually, more of his recent works is regarding AVX512. https://reviews.llvm.org/p/RKSimon/
Assuming AMD is the supplier for next-gen consoles, what other CPU potentially have AVX512 support.
Also huge respect for your awesome post about known info regarding nex-gen! Awesome read!
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Sorry, I'm not familiar with this person. What is his track record?
SteamSpy. And he works for Epic. That new epic store was his project.
Especially on the RTX 2060 - and probably so on the next generation - expect games with ray tracing to look like current gen games at low resolution with ray tracing on. Unless AMD has some magic chip ready.
They also have Fire Rays technology in their pro GPUs.
As far as I'm concerned next-gen will have some software approximation RT in the vein of KillZone: Shadowfall, which is ofc worse than RTX. But RTX is also not quite "real raytracing", it is really impressive, but it is still an approximation, for sake of running in real time.
This still doesn't make sense to me. If the plan was 2019 and we believe specs are for the most part locked down 2 years out per Cerny then how could Sony know in late 2017 that PS4 sales would hold up so well? I really can't believe they have a finished console design that they'll now sit on it for a year or re-design it.
Apart from the above, I also don't see how it makes business sense to wait for the current product sales to reduce significantly before introducing the next product. Keeping up the momentum is the aim, right?
Thanks. Seems an odd thing for him to be privy to given his position. Or that he would share it given his official capacity with Epic.
They wouldn't have known then, but they can pump the brakes any time prior to reveal. It lets software mature and their current hardware generates a good profit. You'd only maintain your launch in those circumstances if you were worried about your competitor.
Delaying the reveal I could believe but not launch given the long lead times and logistics unless a significant issue comes up. As for software it has been said many games have been in dev for a long time now (third parties were much more tentative last gen to commit?)
Also with Google, Microsoft and now Amazon on the horizon I would think Sony would want to launch sooner rather than later...Especially if 2019 was/is their plan and the others are 2020. Delaying to launch alongside all this additional competition seems like a bad idea.
Sony has never been an outright first to launch in any generation, so it's not as if this is uncharacteristic of them.
Looks like we have another conformation about Sony moving PS5 from 2019 to 2020.
It became sort of meme in russian gaming circles when he kinda says some throwaway lines in his podcast, which later turn into newsworthy stuff. They were actually speaking of 2019 hardware and software plans and predictions when he said about next-gen consoles. He also said something along the lines: "I can't confirm nor deny, but some new hardware can be unvieled in 1st half of the year" (it could be new revision of smth not exactly next-gen).
I hope that you understand what I mean. It's not like he is trying or wanting to leak something, but he knows too much, so you can quite often understand what he actually knows on the topic even without him saying it. But regarding RT he actually said that we won't see it mainstream until around 2023 or so, because it is too expensive for consoles. Also, he quite often hints to something or quotes some well-known rumors which often come to life.
As anexanhume said it's not like it is set in stone. You can remember 4gb addition to PS4, but more importantly, I'm saying about Jaguar cores. On the old place, there were discussion about how they were kinda forced to choose it over 4 core Bulldozer relatively close to launch. There were a lot of speculations, but I believe it to be true.
What I've heard from my friend working in the 1st party studio, this move allows Sony to have more software ready for the launch window to be strong out of the gates like Nintendo with the Switch. Well he is just a gamedev guy, not somebody who makes big decision at Sony, but you can take it for what it worth.
Right, it isn't hard to believe there are changes that occur as they close in on reveal and launch. It would be pretty hard to keep things set all the way to the very end given fluctuations over time. For example, the PS4 remaining this strong this far into the gen gives Sony more wiggle room to prep PS5 related things. More prep means a better launch and a better launch means potentially better reception. It all works out.
True, but then have they ever faced 3 such juggernauts in competition at the same time? That has to have them slightly shook!
I don't think so. As it has been said, this stuff has been determined beforehand. While a delay can give them a chance to improve some things, I don't think it would allow one of them to get a big advantage over the other.
I'd really like PS5 to be beast of a system, but fanboyism aside games sell consoles, not TFlops. You can clearly see it with Xbox One X.
Isn't ray tracing, at least currently, still way to expensive for the kind of visual improvements it actually delivers, like, any responsible dev would use the horsepower this takes for other things, with more visual impact.
For example, no doubt that ray traced reflections look better than cube maps and screen space reflections, but the visual improvements they bring stand in no relation to the cost at which they come.
The one X is doing rather well, I think. At least in the US the horsepower definitely works well as a selling point. At the beginning of current gen it also was a big factor, even though that was also aided by weak exclusive line ups on both sides, so horsepower became the main distinguishing factor. I could see that repeat next gen when exclusives are weak or sparse right out the gate.
Yeah, we're potentially look at a very smooth and clean 2020 launch with both the hardware and the software ready. And I think that the lineup for both parties will be stronger than it was in 2013. It's going to be fun.
Yes, ridiculously expensive for what it adds to visual fidelity. Look how, essentially, better looking puddles and reflections on few surfaces, absolutely tanks performance of the super expensive 2080 Ti.
Xbox is an endemic brand to US, it was selling on par with PS4 since the start of the gen. But here in Europe, apart from the UK it almost completely stopped selling, like 2 years after the start of the gen. It had a little boost with One X release, but One S boost was actually on par or better. There is no zeitgeist surrounding Xbox a the moment, but many people are excited about what games all those new MS studios will do. Also, it has to be noted, that PC market is much more prevalent in Europe, which diminishes the value of existing Xbox games, due to availability via winstore on PC.
Google, amazon, Verizon, MS, and Sony all want in on game streaming. Who's more likely to succeed— the ones actually in gaming already or those trying to break in? Think of all the failed ventures google has abandoned. They'll cut their losses at the first sight of hardship.
If RT were to come to consoles soon, I'd expect to see it mostly used in hybrid rendering, with RT used for a few effects only, like dynamic shadows and reflections.
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well those leaks are more than codenames. For example a new Xbox is supposed to launch this year similar to the S but with no disc drive (and probably smaller)
this is probably the last "One" console. Next in 2020 we see the release of another Xbox, this is what you can compare the PS5 to although ofcourse it will presumebly play Xbox, Xbox 360, Xbox One games too (Xbox One will probably get really trimmed down versions of new games too for a while at least).
edit: forgot to note that Xbox One will only get the shitty versions of new games UNLESS they use XCloud to allow xbox one owners to play new games, this would allow them to have a more similar experience to Xbox Anaconda owners altho ofcourse its streamed and we have no idea how the visual quality and performance will compare to that of a local system running the game.
If MS does do multiple SKUs, would they release on the same day? Or is there a better way to do it?
There was a news post on the forum about subscription services revenue. PS now (streaming) is making more much money than Game Pass and other things. It was actually kinda unexpected, also it worth noting that PS Now is not yet widely available.
Just, finally, catching up on old and new thread: truly great work on your encyclopedic posts anexanhume.
I've not much to add to the tech talk, but I'm beginning to wonder if Sony might be strong-armed by MS into announcing way earlier than they normally would.
If MS are happy to reveal their new Xbox(es) at E3 this year, ~15 months before launch, which seems possible given the current level of Xbox chatter and the X1X reveal, and if there will be little significant difference between PS5 and X2, there seems no benefit to Sony waiting to announce similar specs, and perhaps a benefit to announcing them early. I'm beginning to wonder if we might see a PS Meeting pre-E3 this year, even for a late 2020 launch (although I'm thinking early 2020 is more likely).
Sony don't have to be scared of X2, but not announcing anything for months after the X2 spec is known, and presumably NG X2 games have been seen at E3, especially if your tech is on par with X2 seems a little unlikely to me.
I've said this before, but for the above reasons alone I could see a PS Meeting in May, spec reveal, first and third party NG games shown, stealing X2's thunder, with playable systems late 2019 at EGX and a launch early 2020. This scenario ending in a late 2020 release is more doubtful, but I really cant picture Sony giving up the limelight entirely to X2 for basically all of 2019, with no spec boost to show off with a later reveal. With similar specs, the first reveal will have a glamour the second-comer will lack (and Sony revealed first in 2013, while the Pro was gazumped with higher specs by the X1X).
At this point current gen sales are largely irrelevant - ensuring strong sales for the next gen is what matters. PR isn't everything, but it certainly isn't nothing, and it will be a significant factor in reveal dates.
I've not much to add to the tech talk, but I'm beginning to wonder if Sony might be strong-armed by MS into announcing way earlier than they normally would.
If MS are happy to reveal their new Xbox(es) at E3 this year, ~15 months before launch, which seems possible given the current level of Xbox chatter and the X1X reveal, and if there will be little significant difference between PS5 and X2, there seems no benefit to Sony waiting to announce similar specs, and perhaps a benefit to announcing them early. I'm beginning to wonder if we might see a PS Meeting pre-E3 this year, even for a late 2020 launch (although I'm thinking early 2020 is more likely).
Sony don't have to be scared of X2, but not announcing anything for months after the X2 spec is known, and presumably NG X2 games have been seen at E3, especially if your tech is on par with X2 seems a little unlikely to me.
I've said this before, but for the above reasons alone I could see a PS Meeting in May, spec reveal, first and third party NG games shown, stealing X2's thunder, with playable systems late 2019 at EGX and a launch early 2020. This scenario ending in a late 2020 release is more doubtful, but I really cant picture Sony giving up the limelight entirely to X2 for basically all of 2019, with no spec boost to show off with a later reveal. With similar specs, the first reveal will have a glamour the second-comer will lack (and Sony revealed first in 2013, while the Pro was gazumped with higher specs by the X1X).
At this point current gen sales are largely irrelevant - ensuring strong sales for the next gen is what matters. PR isn't everything, but it certainly isn't nothing, and it will be a significant factor in reveal dates.
Question: is traktor (I think that's how you spell his name) over here in this forum? He was the specs expert back in the old place. I am interested to see if he has posted any specs in this thread to see what his opinion is on what next gen will be like.
I don't think that Sony would feel strong-armed at all to reveal early if MS does an early reveal. If anything, the ball would be in their court and they could drag it out as long as they need until the hype from MS's reveal dies down and the speculation for PS5's reveal begins.
I definitely think Scarlett should be brought up at E3 2019 but MS should be selective in how much they give away. They'll have to carry that hype a long way until Fall 2020.
I definitely think Scarlett should be brought up at E3 2019 but MS should be selective in how much they give away. They'll have to carry that hype a long way until Fall 2020.
I can't quickly find, but there was an interview with either Kodera or Kaz after the release of PS4 Pro, where they spoke about them liking Apple's "available right now" approach to releasing new HW, hence they wanted to shorten the PR cycle for their new HW.
I think Sony will be fine. They probably won't have a PS4 like gen but they'll still be fine. I sorta expect more of a 360/PS3 gen where it's more even in terms of units sold.
Mainly just because I don't see Microsoft fumbling so bad on this reveal.
Mainly just because I don't see Microsoft fumbling so bad on this reveal.
That is what it is all about really. I think we'll all be able to endure waiting for just 1 more year after 2019 if it means we get some great console launches.
It will just depend on how Sony starts out the gate. If Sony doesn't mess up, it will continue to be like the PS1 and PS4 gens. MS can improve their place in the market (possibly get into that 60-70M tier) but I think Sony will continue producing 100M+ selling consoles either way.
It's just exciting thinking about the tech in these consoles. Zen 2 CPUs, 16+ GB of GDDR6, and 10+ TF Navi GPUs. These specs will be the baseline for game development going forward. It's crazy to think about what games like The Elder Scrolls VI or Grand Theft Auto VI could be like if they're being built from the ground up for these types of specs. We're not just talking 4k 60 FPS gaming, we're talking about next level immersion, simulation, and complexity.
Yeah. It's also interesting the both of those franchises skipped out on this gen so the jumps from the last games will be huge.
The bold is what has me hyped. The physics and interactions all coming together. I can already imagine it in my head and I think it will make next gen pretty special.
There is no good way to do it. There is the bad way, and less bad way. Best way is to not do it at all. Frankly i am still of the belief that the 2 SKU is not happening at all, just because i consider it a stupid buisness decision. The only people who want it are ERA members who want an expensive console and had a mistaken belief that they wouldn't be hampered by the much weaker SKU that would end up being the baseline.
If MS want to deliberately burn money, that is their choice. But to try and find a logic behind it is futile. There is no logic, the same way The Cell of PS3 was not logical. I wouldn't have believed it if you told me about The Cell before PS3 was released.
Inflation and pricing index increases without equivalent wage increases still means $500 is even more out of reach for people.
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