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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
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Ray Tracing would be a very interesting wild card if played next gen.
Interesting! Made even more interesting by another quote in the article:
In summary:
- 4000 GDC attendees were polled about what platforms they're working on games for
- 16% said games for existing and unannounced platforms
- 2% said games exclusively for unannounced platforms
- 46% said games exclusively for existing platforms.
I mean what are we talking about, just extra compute cores, like what nvidia does, or raytracing tech in silicon?
So 36% don't know? I guess they don't know/can't tell, and a good chunk of those would be next gen mmm
GTX 10 series
GTX 1050, 640 CUDA Cores, ~1.7 TFLOPS base, ~1.9 TFLOPS boost, ~2.3 TFLOPS OC
-GTX 1050 Ti, 768 CUDA Cores, ~2.0 TFLOPS base, ~2.1 TFLOPS boost, ~2.8 TFLOPS OC
-GTX 1060 3GB, 1152 CUDA Cores, ~3.5 TFLOPS base, ~3.9 TFLOPS boost, ~4.8 TFLOPS OC
-GTX 1060 6GB, 1280 CUDA Cores, ~3.9 TFLOPS base, ~4.4 TFLOPS boost, ~5.4 TFLOPS OC
-GTX 1070, 1920 CUDA Cores, ~5.8 TFLOPS base, ~6.5 TFLOPS boost, ~8.1 TFLOPS OC
-GTX 1080, 2560 CUDA Cores, ~8.2 TFLOPS base, ~8.9 TFLOPS boost, ~10.8 TFLOPS OC
-GTX Titan X, 3584 CUDA Cores, ~10.1 TFLOPS base, ~11.0 TFLOPS boost, ~13.6 TFLOPS OC
-GTX 1080 Ti, 3584 CUDA Cores, ~10.6 TFLOPS base, ~11.3 TFLOPS boost, ~14.3 TFLOPS OC
-GTX Titan Xp, 3840 CUDA Cores, ~11.4 TFLOPS base, ~12.1 TFLOPS boost, ~15.3 TFLOPS OC
My 1080ti has been running over 14tf for a couple years now. That's on 16nm with a much higher power and less efficiency.
Yes I know it's not AMD, but I'm not expecting much less than that for next gen consoles running new efficient architecture
I am curious about what the other 36% said. Also, the 46% could be skewed by indies or even because the Devs just don't realize that they are working on a crossgen game.
I'd say that 36% saying "don't know" doesn't seem too crazy. GDC isn't exclusive to folks who are currently working on a project. 18% working on next-gen projects sounds interesting when you consider that Xbox dev kits supposedly haven't gone out yet.
People either have bad memory or just come out with info out of nowhere
raytracing tech in silicon I guess since I don't think AMD has anything available for the time being. Don't know if Sony or MS have the right people that could design such a chip and have it implemented in their console to make it all work. Because if not for such a differentiation, I have a hard time seeing what will define next gen except for better image quality and framerates. The jumps from previous gens were easier to predict looking at the upcoming tech and how much it affected visuals imo, but not so much right now.
Like I said, avatar bet? I bet it will have more than 16Gb GDDR6. Are you willing to put your avatar where you mouth is?
Well this comment certainly won't age well.
But "don't know" doesn't mean that they're not working on a project, that would be "not working on a project", or more likely the poll is only for thise working on a project, so it reads more like either can't/won't say, or they really don't know
if a raytracing chip happened it would be a return to the ps2 days. that is the last time I can think of having graphics effects built at a hardware leval. the last 20 years have been a era of genaral compute.
Ok, in the possible scenario that MS opens up on GDC and presents Lockhart (X TFs) and Anaconda (XX TFs)... Will it make sense for Sony to delay PS5 by 6 to 12 months and make sure it's equal to Anaconda at the very least?
It's possible very early kits have already gone out to select publishers. Or maybe some 3rd party devs are adjusting workflow to target specs they think will end up in the final console.
That wouldn't make sense to me. And as a matter of fact, Sony could be capturing a very sweet middle ground between price and power.
Actually I was thinking that Scarlett dev kits coming this Spring for what is assumed to be a Holiday 2020 release seemed very early for Microsoft but if it does have HW RT then maybe it provides extra time for devs to get to grips with it?
Damn, so at least 720 people are working on Ouya 2 games.
I just checked out the full doc: Available here
It does and doesn't give us more clarity. The question for that particular poll is "Are you developing your *next* game for upcoming unannounced game platforms, and/or existing platforms?* ".
The poll isn't specific, so the 37% that said "don't know" could really be anything. No real way to infer any more meaning than that.
still not convinced, but if they do have raytracinbg in silicon. my guess is its a fixed number of rays at any set number of intractions per second.
GDDR6 has a notable speed and capacity increase. Also, its likely that all GDDR5 production will stop about two years from now.
I think there's a tremendous benefit to ray tracing.
To me, this is more noticeable than 1440p vs 4K. It would be a big deal if one console was capable of this, and the other wasn't. I agree that resources for this type of processing will likely take die space, but "how much" is something that's extremely difficult to quantify.
GIF source: https://benchmarks.ul.com/news/watch-our-new-directx-raytracing-tech-demo?redirected=true
With Direct X leading the charge bringing real time ray tracing to games, I def think MS has the people required to bring this to a console. MS has commented that they've been working on DXR since early 2017, and they're one of the biggest proponents of the technology. Having this feature availble in their next console would go a long way to increase the adoption of DXR and DX12 on PC. The question is, will the requirements this brings make it into the budget of the console? I think this is something MS will deam worth it, and we will see this tech in the next Xbox.
I think there's a tremendous benefit to ray tracing.
To me, this is more noticeable than 1440p vs 4K. It would be a big deal if one console was capable of this, and the other wasn't. I agree that resources for this type of processing will likely take die space, but "how much" is something that's extremely difficult to quantify.
GIF source: https://benchmarks.ul.com/news/watch-our-new-directx-raytracing-tech-demo?redirected=true
With Direct X leading the charge bringing real time ray tracing to games, I def think MS has the people required to bring this to a console. MS has commented that they've been working on DXR since early 2017, and they're one of the biggest proponents of the technology. Having this feature availble in their next console would go a long way to increase the adoption of DXR and DX12 on PC. The question is, will the requirements this brings make it into the budget of the console? I think this is something MS will deam worth it, and we will see this tech in the next Xbox.
Unless Their low end console is actually the same power as the PS5 at 400$, and the RT console (Anaconda) costs like 600$.
The leaks were wrong all along!!!
TF is not the only thing that make games look better .
Plus we going to get more than 2 to 3TF any way .
Unlike Pro and X games will be build from ground up for them .
Stuff like better physics , more NPCs , better lighting alone can do wonders plus everything else.
Here is the corresponding report from the end of Feb 2013: https://www.gdconf.com/news/gdc_state_of_the_industry_rese
Just 11% at that point releasing their next game on next-gen even after PS4 had been revealed.
Sure, if you sit less than 4 feet away or have a gigantic screen.
I distinctly remember the conversations around that time.and I remember that report. I have bad memory?
The industry was as a whole gun-shy and sceptical about the health of the console industry back then so I'm not surprised to see that figure being lower.
I think implementation matters. if they do it, there are two routes to take.I think there's a tremendous benefit to ray tracing.
To me, this is more noticeable than 1440p vs 4K. It would be a big deal if one console was capable of this, and the other wasn't. I agree that resources for this type of processing will likely take die space, but "how much" is something that's extremely difficult to quantify.
GIF source: https://benchmarks.ul.com/news/watch-our-new-directx-raytracing-tech-demo?redirected=true
With Direct X leading the charge bringing real time ray tracing to games, I def think MS has the people required to bring this to a console. MS has commented that they've been working on DXR since early 2017, and they're one of the biggest proponents of the technology. Having this feature availble in their next console would go a long way to increase the adoption of DXR and DX12 on PC. The question is, will the requirements this brings make it into the budget of the console? I think this is something MS will deam worth it, and we will see this tech in the next Xbox.
A. throw compute cores at it (nvidia style)
B. custm silcon, not unlike the fx chip for the snes or fog effects for the ps2.
route B makes more sense, to me, but if its done in hardware devs will have less control of it.
I also heard the ESRAM being used to bump up the DDR bandwidth version. Kinect certainly lead to the $100 price difference though.
Better physics and more NPCs I wouldn't really call next gen at all, it'll be a small upgrade. As for lighting, unless you get raytracing you won't get anything game changing.
- on a single platform but not on PlayStation it might get limited traction. But if it can leverage the directX ray tracing work then maybe enough devs could be encouraged to support it + pc?
- on only high end Xbox wouldn't that risk further fragmenting addressable market and make it less likely to be supported?
Feels too early for placing bets on ray tracing in hardware that stays static for 5+ years. If it's more expensive because of RT but conventional performance is similar to eg ps5 then i'm Not sure that trade off would pay off
It's going to be pretty fun revisiting this thread once the PS5 is announced, that is for sure.
Yep companies was wondering if consoles were going to sell and people were saying consoles were dying .
What happen PS4 and XB1 sold great at lauch and PS4 going on record pace.
I expect companies going to be making games much faster for next gen .
The ESRAM was there for the bandwidth as DDR3 wasn't fast enough to and the 32MB of ESRAM was just enough for that 1080p framebuffer I believe. ESRAM was only there to counter bandwidth issues, nothing else.
It might well be, but it's a nightmare to read at the moment.
The story that I know for a fact when I was a dev at MS.
The reason for more ram was they wanted a big OS. GDDR5 was written off because it wasn't looking like that can get more than 2GB at the time of conception of Xbox One. They were trying to fit the OS into 4GB of DDR3 but couldn't and had to double the amount to 8GB of DDR3. The OS in Xbox One is only a little over 2GB, the remaining ~700mb was saved for future possible OS expansion.
Esram was created for bandwidth to feed the GPU. They knew from the numbers 68GB/S wasn't going to be enough for any class of GPU they're planning to put in there.
XB1 was created for Kinect 2.0, OS features, TV. Gaming performance was not a priority AT ALL.
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Agreed that next-gen will look far better than the X, but there's a couple of things to keep in mind about 16GB of GDDR6. First is that they might also have some DDR3 for the OS so that like 15 of the 16GB is used for games. Second is that HBCC has been said to roughly double RAM efficiency using a NAND flash cache. If both of these ideas were applied, the apparent 2x jump from 8 to 16GB would be more like a 5-6x jump. So it's not infeasible, it would just have a couple of big asterisks next to it.
For sure. Still good to see confirmation devs are all in for next-gen, though.
If there is HBCC, there is no need for separate DDR3 pool. You just page OS and game separately. i.e 1GB GDDR6 for OS, 15GB GDDR6 for game. 2GB NAND flash cache for OS, 30GB NAND flash cache for game.
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