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Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread - MY ANACONDA DON'T WANT NONE

Overall maximum teraflops for next-gen launch consoles?

  • 8 teraflops

    Votes: 37 1.8%
  • 9 teraflops

    Votes: 50 2.4%
  • 12 teraflops

    Votes: 903 42.7%
  • 14 teraflops

    Votes: 497 23.5%
  • Team ALL THE WAY UP +14 teraflops

    Votes: 443 21.0%
  • 10 teraflops (because for some reason I put 9 instead of 10)

    Votes: 184 8.7%

  • Total voters
    2,114
Mar 17, 2018
3,002
I don't know many budget gamers that are also early adopters. They'll be probably sitting on their ps4/xbx playing the same shared-gen titles we'll be playing on newer hardware. They know the great stuff isn't coming til 2-3 years into the life of the console.
I don't think budget gamers are waiting for the 'great' next gen games to upgrade to a next gen console, I think they're waiting for the price to come down.
 
Feb 10, 2018
10,991
I don't know many budget gamers that are also early adopters. They'll be probably sitting on their ps4/xbx playing the same shared-gen titles we'll be playing on newer hardware. They know the great stuff isn't coming til 2-3 years into the life of the console.
It does not matter if they are early adopters or not.
I'm talking about people who want to play next gen games but not have to pay as much, to do so.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,423
I don't know many budget gamers that are also early adopters. They'll be probably sitting on their ps4/xbx playing the same shared-gen titles we'll be playing on newer hardware. They know the great stuff isn't coming til 2-3 years into the life of the console.
Indeed. The portion of the market that boosts Fifa / Call of Duty / 2K / GTA / Fortnite etc etc aren't going to move over immediately anyway, and the makes of those types of games might end up being cross gen for a while to come. Only exception might be GTA, but we'll see.
 
Feb 10, 2018
10,991
Indeed. The portion of the market that boosts Fifa / Call of Duty / 2K / GTA / Fortnite etc etc aren't going to move over immediately anyway, and the makes of those types of games might end up being cross gen for a while to come. Only exception might be GTA, but we'll see.
But when the latest games are not coming to current gen anymore there's still going to be people who want to pay less.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,056
Hypothetically then whatever general compute RT support both consoles have could be functional rather than visual, while dedicated hardware RT could provide support for visuals / audio as well?
Depending on what exactly is hw-accelerated there could be any number of non-graphics related uses for these, and on a platform where every device comes equipped with it, it's actually practical to use it - unlike what we have available right now.

That said - do note that doing a bunch of ray-casting when it comes to character movement and interaction has been standard practice for decades - this isn't exactly unexplored space.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,390
The fun of last gen relived, console wars, arthur gies with bad info

joking aside, does anyone know how we got to 2 names on the dev kit for scarlett?
i think klobrille "2 sku slide" and hmqgg possibly mentioned "Dante" but team thurott has "Danta", though I could be mis-remembering
I don’t get the gotcha here. He’s speculating based on historical precedent. We’re all guilty of that and most of us would have guessed specs would have leaked by now with some sort of insider confirmation.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,423
But when the latest games are not coming to current gen anymore there's still going to be people who want to pay less.
How many years will that be?
How many games will be out by then that could encourage them to pick one console or another?
How many games will they have acquired on an existing platform that could encourage them to stay or switch to a different platform?
What will the prices be for the consoles at that time?


We don't know they answers for any of those yet and all of those will play a factor.

Depending on what exactly is hw-accelerated there could be any number of non-graphics related uses for these, and on a platform where every device comes equipped with it, it's actually practical to use it - unlike what we have available right now.

That said - do note that doing a bunch of ray-casting when it comes to character movement and interaction has been standard practice for decades - this isn't exactly unexplored space.
All true. His talk is over 3 years old and is based on work he's already implemented into games that exist that he couldn't talk about at the time — I'd still like to see what future hardware could do for it though, maybe we could get it happening for more characters simultaneously or with more intricate animations or combined with more interesting AI etc etc and all at less penalty to hardware. I guess I'm just excited at the myriad of ways new hardware standards can improve what we get.
 
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Nov 12, 2017
2,620
The PS5 is not gonna be affected by the Lockart and they are not gonna change their plan because of it, if they are going for the 499€ they are not gonna change to 399 just because of the lockart. Your business point is also wrong, because the lockart will not affect the ps5 sales.
if there's 150 or more Euro difference ..it will absolutely affect sales ..of both higher priced sku Anaconda and Ps5
Remember that those console will play mostly the same games and with mostly I mean. 90+ %
Why it shouldn't?
 
Feb 10, 2018
10,991
How many years will that be?
How many games will be out by then that could encourage them to pick one console or another?
How many games will they have acquired on an existing platform that could encourage them to stay or switch to a different platform?
What will the prices be for the consoles at that time?


We don't know they answers for any of those yet and all of those will play a factor.
there will always be gamers who want to spend less.

I don't see why the dev transition will be any different to this gen. So we will be seeing next gen only games in 2021
 
Oct 30, 2017
4,618
It possibly could if Sony first party would be not good and Ms lot better than them...but this is not the case ...at all. On first party side Ms have everything to proof
No I m not talking about exclusives .let's say next COD , if next Xbox would have weaker gpu could it have better looking version or higher resolution of that game due to customization ??
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,423
Well again as far as the rumours are going it seems there will be custom solutions from one or either company but it depends how much this "secret sauce" will cost each of them. As for development capabilities I don't think it would do much. Devs for a start would have to target the lowest common denominator which is going to be PC gamers who will still be using conventional HDD or slower SSD than "secret sauce" SSD tech, and they aren't going to make a game which won't run well on this hardware because it's designed for some super-fast custom console hardware. Secondly, if last gen and this gen are anything to go by most devs won't give a jack about this special sauce. Just look at the CELL where devs never bothered to spend time optimizing for it or the half floats in the PRO as another example. We have no guarantees devs will suddenly spend time optimizing for this hardware when history has shown they never did so before.

Microsoft sacrificed CU count in the X1 because of the "secret sauce" ESRAM which turned out to be meaningless. I'm not saying this tech will take up die space but it could effect the BOM.
It's going to be interesting to see what a high base level for next-gen consoles does for PC requirements. PC's will of course always have the higher ceiling but the median & base requirements will definitely have to rise in time. During the cross-gen portion of the era, yes you are right that they will still have to make allowances for lower spec hardware. But thats no different from what we see every gen any way. its only really about 2-3 years in that we start seeing what new hardware can really do and get pushed beyond what existing hardware is capable of.

However first & second parties will be able to push the boundaries much earlier / much further than third parties will. We shouldn't write them off just yet.
Thinking a bit more about this, aren't MS' first party games supposedly going to PC as well? That could put them in the same situation 3rd party developers who make for console / PC find themselves in and needing to account for HDDs etc. Its actually possible that the only studios we could see truly pushing the boundaries of what you can do with fast storage could be Sony's first party. Alternatively, MS launches their games that go to PC with high min-spec requirements and maybe it accelerates changes in what the average PC spec looks like.
 
Feb 8, 2018
1,273
The fun of last gen relived, console wars, arthur gies with bad info

joking aside, does anyone know how we got to 2 names on the dev kit for scarlett?
i think klobrille "2 sku slide" and hmqgg possibly mentioned "Dante" but team thurott has "Danta", though I could be mis-remembering
Final countdown just started playing in my head. thanks to this but pretty obvious that something like that would happen.
We don't belive in rumors?:)
Don't believe the hype!
 
Apr 4, 2019
59
Half the RAM would, I think, make it much more difficult to run next gen games - especially when we're talking open world stuff.
Not necessarily - partially resident textures, virtual texturing, resource binding - GPU support for these has improved considerably since early GCN; the ubiquity of consoles is a double edged sword in terms of raising the baseline architectural support while similarly hampering it a decade later, naturally. The rumoured emphasis on storage speed also serves this sort of demand almost hand-in-hand. Of course, Lockhart targeting a different performance spec itself can also imply the use of lower resolution mip levels anyway, where texture data is a fairly big chonk, and usually the mip levels are scaled in powers of 2.
 
May 19, 2018
382
Thinking a bit more about this, aren't MS' first party games supposedly going to PC as well? That could put them in the same situation 3rd party developers who make for console / PC find themselves in and needing to account for HDDs etc. Its actually possible that the only studios we could see truly pushing the boundaries of what you can do with fast storage could be Sony's first party. Alternatively, MS launches their games that go to PC with high min-spec requirements and maybe it accelerates changes in what the average PC spec looks like.
Yes as far as I know all future Xbox releases will have a PC version.
And yeah they will always have to accommodate for those PC gamers who might not have the same standard of hardware as a new Xbox console sporting the latest processor and graphics tech available, but as it's first party we will definitely see individual console optimizations just like we see now with XB1X versions of games. We definitely won't see the same approach by 3rd party devs who will do as they do now, one size fits all. But yeah this could be a bonus for Sony seeing as 1st party will only need to target one hardware specification.
As for MS being the cause of change in the PC gaming market, I can't see this happening. Not yet anyway. Maybe if they build an attractive library of games on PC GamePass and people actually are interested in it in masses, maybe then will people consider upgrading their hardware to play those games. I can't see many people upgrading to NVMe SSD's just to play the next Forza or something.
 
Nov 16, 2017
233
But when the latest games are not coming to current gen anymore there's still going to be people who want to pay less.
That's what price cuts are for. PS4 had their 1st within the 1st 2 years IIRC, despite having strong sales. Also, they're still releasing FIFA games on ps3, surprisingly. At least they still did last year. It'll be a long time before they stop making games for that 100M+ install base.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,298
If Sony went with two SKU's. One say targeting CB4k/30fps and one targeting native 4k/60fps then I'd pay $200 more for the second one and I think most enthusiasts would.

The new Xbox doesn't interest me unless the more powerful one (if those are still the rumours?) targets 60fps in all games as I have a beefy PC to play MS exclusives.
 
Oct 29, 2017
221
With the TF number being so influencial, I can see one or both of them pulling out tricks, theoretical numbers, and what ever under the sun can get them to a higher number without technically lying. Going to be interesting to say the least.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,601
With the TF number being so influencial, I can see one or both of them pulling out tricks, theoretical numbers, and what ever under the sun can get them to a higher number without technically lying. Going to be interesting to say the least.
Sony said that the PS3 was a 2Tflops device...
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,847
PS3, not ps4. Ps3 was a 400gfs.
nope, the graphics card in ps3 was only 170 gflops and the cell was a little over 100 gflops. pretty much the same as jaguar CPUs.

edit: nvm, it seems wikipedia is saying that the cell was 230 gflops and the rsx gpu was 230 gflops.

i highly doubt those numbers but i dont have any other numbers to refute you so i concede. i do remember reading somewhere how the rsx was only 170 gflops which explained why the 250 gflops xbox 360 gpu ran games so much better. i also doubt the cell 230 gflops number but it came directly from IBM so wtf do i know.

edit 2: ok, so we are talking about the ps3, not ps4. my mistake lol
 
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Dec 15, 2017
528
Oct 27, 2017
770
Oct 27, 2017
755
LOL, leave for a while and come back to talk about how the PC target may hold back Xbox next gen games compared to Sony. I don't think many people understand the reality that developers target high to start and tailor down as necessary for other platforms, which is what the Xbox One X dev kit and no doubt the next gen Scarlett dev kit will enable too. Gears of War 4 and the Forza games are amazing on PC and certainly didn't impact the Xbox versions in any negative manner.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,017
With the TF number being so influencial, I can see one or both of them pulling out tricks, theoretical numbers, and what ever under the sun can get them to a higher number without technically lying. Going to be interesting to say the least.
Prediction: Sony is going to show a box that can play a new 1st party title while comparing to the original PS4 performance in order to see the giant leap in hardware progress. When asked if this confirms full PS4 b/c and cross-buy, the Sony rep becomes silent and offer a tidbit that not all PS4 games will be playable day one citing licensing issues. Fast forward to the day of PS5 successor announcement and nothing but loot box games get a PS4 b/c support for the PS5.
 
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May 19, 2018
382
So what level of performance is everyone expecting from the new consoles? Considering the RX 3080 XT is supposedly ~2070 performance with 56 CU and at a cost of $330, naturally the expectations for the consoles will be lower, right?

To be honest that completely changes up my prediction. It seems 56 CU will be out of the consoles' reach unless Sony and MS are getting very good deals on these chips.

Does anyone know how much each individual component will cost after taking in bulk purchases into account for a 7nm console with specs along the lines of

Zen 2 - 8 cores/16 threads @ 3.3GHz
Motherboard
RAM modules - 24GB GDDR6
Storage - 1 TB NVMe (or custom NVMe)
GPU - 56 CU @ 1.8 GHz
Heatsink
Disk drive - 4k Blu Ray (with support for 128GB quad layer BD-XL disks)
Accessories - controllers + headphones
Console chassis

If we can estimate this and get a ball park figure it would be way easier to predict what specification of GPU will be used considering it will be the most expensive component. If this comes out to, let's say, $800 then we can safely say its unreasonable. If it comes out at $600 it would be more reasonable if a $100 loss is taken per unit.

Gives something to discuss in this current rumour drought lol.
 
Dec 15, 2017
528
So what level of performance is everyone expecting from the new consoles? Considering the RX 3080 XT is supposedly ~2070 performance with 56 CU and at a cost of $330, naturally the expectations for the consoles will be lower, right?

To be honest that completely changes up my prediction. It seems 56 CU will be out of the consoles' reach unless Sony and MS are getting very good deals on these chips.

Does anyone know how much each individual component will cost after taking in bulk purchases into account for a 7nm console with specs along the lines of

Zen 2 - 8 cores/16 threads @ 3.3GHz
Motherboard
RAM modules - 24GB GDDR6
Storage - 1 TB NVMe (or custom NVMe)
GPU - 56 CU @ 1.8 GHz
Heatsink
Disk drive - 4k Blu Ray (with support for 128GB quad layer BD-XL disks)
Accessories - controllers + headphones
Console chassis

If we can estimate this and get a ball park figure it would be way easier to predict what specification of GPU will be used considering it will be the most expensive component. If this comes out to, let's say, $800 then we can safely say its unreasonable. If it comes out at $600 it would be more reasonable if a $100 loss is taken per unit.

Gives something to discuss in this current rumour drought lol.
56 CU is ease on 7nm. 1.8GHz... that's the tough one.
I think 64CU with 4CU disabled for yield is the best bet by far. The clock speed is the question mark.
For reference, PS4 Pro had 36CU (+4 disabled) and XBX had 40CU (+4 disabled). 7nm allows for much higher densities than that.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,442
if there's 150 or more Euro difference ..it will absolutely affect sales ..of both higher priced sku Anaconda and Ps5
Remember that those console will play mostly the same games and with mostly I mean. 90+ %
Why it shouldn't?
Affect it to what degree though? That's like saying an Xbox One S affects PS4 Pro sales because it's cheaper. Price matters yes, but there are many other factors as to why people decide to buy one console over another. Besides the "mostly the same games" argument didn't help Xbox this gen.
 
May 19, 2018
382
56 CU is ease on 7nm. 1.8GHz... that's the tough one.
I think 64CU with 4CU disabled for yield is the best bet by far. The clock speed is the question mark.
For reference, PS4 Pro had 36CU (+4 disabled) and XBX had 40CU (+4 disabled). 7nm allows for much higher densities than that.
What about pricing though? Its obviously possible for the console to have these specifications but with the news the 7nm RX 3080 XT is going to be over $300 that changes everything. I know you can't easily predict how much Sony/MS pay per SoC/APU based on the equivalent PC components but I would think that AMD pricing this card at $330, they wouldn't take such a massive hit of like $100-150 per GPU so the consoles can achieve that $500 price point after all other components have been considered. The PS4 PRO GPU which was basically an RX 480 underclocked was sub $200 by the time the PRO came out and that console was still $400. The XB1X had 4 more CU, 4GB more VRAM and a beefier cooling system and that hiked the price up by $100 to $500. Unless I'm reading into it all wrong I can't see a card which is $330 at full clocks on PC being utilized in a $500 console considering all other factors and past consoles.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,620
Affect it to what degree though? That's like saying an Xbox One S affects PS4 Pro sales because it's cheaper. Price matters yes, but there are many other factors as to why people decide to buy one console over another. Besides the "mostly the same games" argument didn't help Xbox this gen.
Let's say in this way ...if the launch of the new xbox will not be the disaster as it was the Xbox one launch... and so the console will not have a "bad reputation" attached on it until the last two years of his life (the reputation started to change with the launch of the X) it will affect sales ....and Anaconda will have what they called in the leaked slide 5h3 "Halo effect" on the weaker console .....if they fail the launch will be all over again as you said a situation like S and Pro .....but IMHO they will be very very careful to tell people everything they wanna hear this time
 
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Nov 12, 2017
2,442
Let's say in this way ...if the launch of the new xbox will not be the disaster as it was the Xbox one launch... and so the console will not have a "bad reputation" attached on it until the last two years of his life (the reputation started to change with the launch of the X) it will affect sales ....and Anaconda will have what they called in the leaked slide 5h3 "Halo effect" on the weaker console .....if they fail the launch will be as you said a situation like S and Pro .....but IMHO they will be very very careful to tell people everything they wanna hear this time
Well there's always a new group of people entering gaming for the first time, so maybe it would matter more to those people. However I think if you only owned an Xbox this gen or only owned a PS4, then you're probably going to stick with their successors. You probably wouldn't jump ship and leave your library behind to save $100-200, especially since now you won't need to keep your old consoles. You can trade/sell it towards the new system.