Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread - MY ANACONDA DON'T WANT NONE

[Phoenix Splash]

UNLESS YOU'VE GOT FLOPS, HUN

Update 4: Computex in a week and we are being pastebin'd

I want to check the pastebin to check eternal-pirate-king story out but...

I... I think we killed it.

Click to shrink...

Update 3:



Source

Update 2: AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, mentions the "secret sauce" once again:

AMD is building the computer chip for the next generation of Sony's PlayStation game console. While the PlayStation 5 won't be released in 2019, the system will carry higher-quality graphics and visual effects on top of faster and expanded memory, according to Wired Magazine.

"What we have done with Sony is really architect something for their application, for their special sauce," she said. "It's a great honor for us. We're really excited about what the next generation PlayStation will do."

AMD is also behind Google's new gaming service Stadia, which was announced in March. New releases for the middle of 2019 include a Ryzen microprocessor for PCs and an Epyc processor for data center, Su said.


"This is a revenue growth year for us," she said. "[We're] starting out at a lower point in the first quarter, but building up over the next couple of quarters, and we still see tremendous excitement around our products. From that standpoint, that's where we're focused."

Click to shrink...

Update 1 on the state of the thread currently until Computex/leaks:

Credit to : Luck and Gamer17


...So, hello there! Welcome!

Update is: well, we now have PS5 news leaked by this PlayStation twitter person and we also know that PS5 is not coming in 2019 so pour one out in honor of our folks at #Team2019! Well, that is unless Microsoft goes bonkers and launches this year. Yeah, there's probably someone out there thinking this. Anyway, we'll probably find out at E3!

Previous threads:

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specifications

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018

Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

Technically, this is an OT4 but the subject keeps evolving so it should be fine as it is

Here you have the threadmarks from the previous thread

Keys:

- PS5 specs info coming from Sony and Mark Cerny via Wired.com

PS5 official info:

Backwards compatible with PS4 games(improvement in, at least, loading speeds)
SSD "faster than any current solution on PC gaming"
7nm 8 core AMD Zen 2 CPU
7nm AMD Radeon Navi GPU
Ray tracing supported
Up to 8K output supported
Not coming in 2019
"Appealing" price for "what you get" with the console

Click to shrink...

We'll find out more later this year, apparently.

Next Xbox "family of devices" official info:

Well, we've got nothing official but Phil Spencer's comments about how they want to have the most advanced console next-gen. There's this rumor about next Xbox coming in two models:

- The more affordable one, reportedly called Xbox Lockhart, which is apparently in a more affordable tier than PS5 but still able of playing current-gen(as in, next-gen) games. Entry level device

- The one that should be competing directly with PS5, Xbox Anaconda, or as folks like to call it: XBOX SNEK.

Spoiler: ...

If you folks want something threadmarked, like some kind of official info or info coming from a nice source, just point it out here or by @ me and I'll be on it so it becomes easier to find.

 

[Gundam]

Xbox e3 stage: Bill Spencer enters the room "Xbox is dead. Introducing your new god" The bottom right pieces of the X's in "Xbox" fall to reveal in mtn dew green: "YBOY" Crowd cheers until the debris of the fallen X starts a fire forcing every1 to run out of the YBOY presser

 

[Datajoy]

Strap in boys... this is gonna be a wild 18 months.

 

[Barnabas Reynolds]

The 20 CU rumor is back in action in the DF Gonzalo thread. Good times!

 

[NanoGuidingStar]

The launch titles of Next Gen Xbox must be huge...

 

[Sekiro]

I predict that before this OT reaches page 400 Microsoft will officially release the specs of their next generation consoles. :)

 

[VX1]

I hope everybody moves fast to this new thread now.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

To celebrate the fresh smell of the new OT I provide my current prediction ... (will be updated from time to time)

Remarks/Assumptions:

• Clock speeds are at max at what I think is possible on a console depending on chip size (excludes the ECC vote)
• The weak point of this prediction is the pricing, so I removed it
• Assumed power draw: CPU 20 watt @ 3.0 GHz, GPU 1.3 watt per CU @ 1000 MHz
• All consoles use a shared memory pool.
• Xbox Arcade & Xbox Pro share the same Motherboard layout for shared memory with 2 chips are not applied on the Xbox Arcade.
• Fast SSD confirmed for PS5, Assumed for Xbox
• Following the narrative Xbox will provide peak performance leadership even it is small
• Expecting an increase in game performance at the same computational power (TFs) just not by the number itself.

Change Log:
Rev 8.2: Lower clock for the lower bounds . (27-05-2019)
Rev 8.1: Eliminate the difference between PS5/Anaconda but having 2 tier prediction for those consoles
Rev 8: New NAVI architecture makes CUs obsolete. Consolidated to ECC vote as more likely now after Computex info (27-05-2019)
Rev 7.1: Included the Endless Cycle Committee prediction vote into the table after a RfC (25-05-2019)
Rev 7: Completely changed prediction scheme: Lower and Upper bounds provide the range I expect the consoles will land (16-05-2019)
Rev 6.1: Changed from Baseline to Ballpark, Modified specs based on new information available to me
Rev 6: Consolidated to 1 baseline per console, adjusted specs & pricing for all consoles
Rev 5: Added 3rd tier to adapt on AdoredTV table of Navi GPUs
Rev. 4.3: SSD for Lockhart, Lockhart now $399 instead of $349
Rev. 4.2: Increased Memory clock instead of 448Gbps,

 

[BitsandBytes]

Checking in.

 

[anexanhume]

Reposting this because I believe the source rumor to be very credible.

That one post at reddit by a throwaway account that PS5 uses HBM + DDR4 after the Wired article is either true or made by a madman with shit ton of time on his hands.

As someone stated here earlier, Sony has patented a heatsink last year to work on a stacked die on top of an APU, which is how HBM chips would be at. The 1.6 HBM chips could very well be similar to the low cost HBM chips Samsung has been developing and revealed in 2016 that a GPU made for laptops could be used;

It's not like AMD doesn't have experience using HBM2 chips on their GPUs either.

Although, the heatsink could be from a PS5 prototype that won't see the light of day, as well as Cerny has been championing unified RAM so...

Click to shrink...

The reddit post actually went up shortly before the Wired article.

Another interesting point to make regarding this rumor is that TSMC actually consulted with Sony (among others) during the development of InFO_MS, which would make Sony familiar with it and probably in the back of their mind when developing consoles. I'd also like to point out that Sony is not a stranger to being inventive with memory. The Vita had a special packaging method in use to get very high bandwidth to the Vita's GPU.

Also, let's assume for a second there was a typo in the original rumor, because it doesn't quite make sense as it is. It says:

allowed them to go below ~50 GFLOPs per GB/sec. bandwidth but still keep above 40 GFLOPs per GB/sec.

Click to shrink...

Which doesn't make sense. Typically when we talk about GPUs, we talk about GB/s per GF/TF, not the other way around. However, 40GB/s per GF would be a stupidly low number, so let's now assume they meant TF. We need a second part of the comment for future information

InFO_MS allows them to drive their 1.6 Gbps chips @ 1.7 Gbps (435 GB/sec.) without having to increase the voltage above 1.2v

Click to shrink...

1.6Gbps per second would result in 409.6GB/s in a 2-stack config. 1.7Gbps bumps it to 435.2GB/s, which is competitive with 256-bit GDDR6 solutions. If we're now assuming the 40-50 GB/s per TF is valid, this gives us a range of 8.7TF to 10.875TF for PS5.

EDIT: if you add DDR4 bandwidth, it goes up further

anexanhume

If you tack on the DDR4 bandwidth to the total (yielding 537.6 total), doing the GB/s per TF calculation gets you a range of 10.75TF to 13.44TF.

I didn't notice before, but the reddit post indicates a quad-channel DDR4 interface @ 3200 MT/s. That's quite substantial, especially when you consider desktop Ryzen is paired with dual-channel DDR4. Maybe allotting extra bandwidth for overhead from moving data between the two pools and for the GPU to use directly when the GPU and CPU are working on the same data?

Click to shrink...

Finally, regarding my skepticism around HBM2 supply, some key things have happened since Samsung's comments about low capacity. SK Hynix and Micron have both entered the market in full force (after the latter abandoned HMC development). And the crypto market crashed. With DRAM and NAND markets easing up, that capacity has to shift somewhere.

Regarding HBM pricing, it's hard to know much it has eased over the past few years (we do have some Vega VII rumored costs for reference), but I think it may be possible to get it down to less than 50% more than GDDR6 per GB, perhaps even just 35% to 40% higher. When you consider that they just need 8GB instead of 16GB of GDDR6, their solution is extremely cost competitive. At that point, it becomes a lot more attractive. HBM is also done on contract pricing (i.e. not floating with market costs), so a big order from Sony locks that factor in and sets up a mutually beneficial relationship with that partner to help them build up their own capacity.

The only rumor around this giving me pause is the digitimes rumor that stated ASE will do the packaging. Other than that, a lot of this rumor makes sense the more I dig into it.

Also, I imagine if that PS4 rev mentioned is coming, it's definitely this Fall. Since it's a console rev, it may not get cracked open to confirm the 7nm EUV from Samsung part, but the timing makes so much sense with MS pushing costs down with the SAD model and the rumored E-revision of the device internals.

Finally, here's the rumor in its entirety for posterity:

PS4 refresh

• sometime between september and november
• 199
• fabbed on samsung 7nm EUV
• best wafer pricing in the industry
• die size 110mm²
• no PRO refresh, financially not viable yet
• too close to PS5 as well

PS5 memory and storage systems

• 24 GB RAM in total (20 GB usable by games)
• 8 GB in form of 2 * 4-Hi stacks HBM2
• Sony got "amazing" deal for HBM
• in part due to them buying up bad chips from other customers which can't run higher then 1.6 Gbps while keeping 1.2v.
• HBM is expected to scale down in price a lot more than GDDR6 over the console lifetime
• Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix already shifting part of their capacity towards HBM due to falling NAND prices
• Sony will be one of the first high volume customers of TSMCs InFO_MS when mass production starts later this year (normal InFo already used by Apple in their iPhone)
• InFO_MS brings down the cost compared to traditional silicon interposers - has thermal and performance advantage as well
• InFO_MS allows them to drive their 1.6 Gbps chips @ 1.7 Gbps (435 GB/sec.) without having to increase the voltage above 1.2v
• HBM is more power efficient compared to GDDR6 - the savings were invested into more GPU power
• additional 16 GB in form of DDR4 @ 256 bit for 102.4 GB/sec.
• 4 GB reserved for OS, the remaining 12 GB usable by games
• memory automatically managed by HBCC and appears as 20 GB to the developers
• HBCC manages streaming of game data from storage as well
• developers can use the API to take control if they choose and manage the memory and storage streaming themselves
• memory solution alleviates problems found in PS4
• namely that CPU bandwidth reduces GPU bandwidth disproportionately
• 2 stacks of HBM have 512 banks (more banks = fewer conflicts and higher utilization)
• GDDR6 better than GDDR5 and GDDR5x in that regard but still less banks than HBM
• at the same time trying to keep CPU memory access to slower DDR4
• very satisfied with decision to use two kinds of memory for price to performance reasons
• allowed them to go below ~50 GFLOPs per GB/sec. bandwidth but still keep above 40 GFLOPs per GB/sec.

Click to shrink...

Also, this DF video came out today:

 

[TaySan]

Microsoft better blow E3 out of the park now that Sony is out. Get me excited for Next Gen for crying out loud.

 

[VX1]

To celebrate the fresh smell of a new thread I repost my most current baseline prediction ;)

Click to shrink...

Great,only thing missing is potential $399 PS5 ;)

 

[Pheonix]

Don't expect 1800 Mhz in a console. Lower it by 400 Mhz and you will eventually near what to expect there.

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This is one area I will have to disagrewith you. Simply because we simply do not know what they have managed to accomplish with Navi and secondly because we can't pick and choose what we are taking from that number code.

If that's the case we might as well also not expect a 3.2GHz CPU.

It could very well be that the one true improvement made in Navi is with regards to its efficiency. And while it sounds impressive its actually pitiful that AMD only managed at 7nm what nvidia was able to accomplish at 16nm and then improve on 12nm.

 

[Hey Please]

To celebrate the fresh smell of a new thread I repost my most current baseline prediction ;)

Click to shrink...

 

[RoninStrife]

New thread. Tasty! Hype levels continue to rise till E3 :)

 

[Deleted member 1589]

Xbox e3 stage: Bill Spencer enters the room "Xbox is dead. Introducing your new god" The bottom right pieces of the X's in "Xbox" fall to reveal in mtn dew green: "YBOY" Crowd cheers until the debris of the fallen X starts a fire forcing every1 to run out of the YBOY presser

Click to shrink...

2023, at the conclusion of the terrible next gen war where Phil Spencer sacrificed himself to help YboY gain some traction, they revealed as a tribute to Spencer, a new SKU

YboY SAD

 

[MrKlaw]

If that Spider-Man demo went from 15 seconds load time to 0.8, can an estimate of SSD bandwidth be calculated? Eg average 5400 rpm drive around 100MB/s, 15 seconds would be approx 1.5Gb transferred. So 0.8s to transfer the same 1.5GB would be roughly 1.8GB/s

 

[Pheonix]

To celebrate the fresh smell of a new thread I repost my most current baseline prediction ;)

Click to shrink...

Is it just me or are your predictions "adjusted" so everything hits a maximum of 10TF? Almost like you are working backwards.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

So, this memory plan for Sony seems at least plausible, yeah?

And with the DF vid, 10-14TF is in the running. I still say 12TF!

 

[Deleted member 12635]

So, this memory plan for Sony seems at least plausible, yeah?

And with the DF vid, 10-14TF is in the running. I still say 12TF!

Click to shrink...

They are down to 10-12TF now. Steady and slowly they eventually will end up with my baseline prediction LOL

 

[vivftp]

Dat new thread smell is glorious :)

Also, go Team 18-20TF!

 

[gaogaogao]

Click to shrink...

 

[sncvsrtoip]

According to this gonzalo leaks gpu is navi 10 lite so if this navi leaked table is correct cu number is 48-56, with 1800mhz its 11-12.9tflops

 

[JahIthBer]

10 TFLOPS does sound about right, if Navi 10 is GTX 1080 level with faster RAM & higher clock speeds, but AMD will likely play around with numbers & claim up to 14TF, could even see Sony pull a Nvidia & say with FP16 - Variable shading - Checkerboard rendering we can achieve 20 TFLOPS. Push those rookie numbers up!

 

[Ozorov]

Team4-16TF

 

[CosmicBolt]

My Teraflops estimates for next gen Console GPU

XBOX Lockhart : Around 4-5 TF

XBOX Anaconda : Around 12-12.5 TF

PS5 : Around 10-11 TF

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Dat new thread smell is glorious :)

Also, go Team 18-20TF!

Click to shrink...

There is a #team18_20tf ??????

 

[VX1]

They are down to 10-12TF now. Steady and slowly they eventually will end up with my baseline prediction LOL

Click to shrink...

Frankly,the most surprising news to me is still that previous DF video where Richard said he expects entry level next Xbox/Lockhart to be ~ 4TF.

 

[Sekiro]

To celebrate the fresh smell of the new OT I repost my current baseline prediction ...

Btw I favor the tier 2 setup with 56 CUs.

Change Log:
Rev 5.: Added 3rd tier to adapt on AdoredTV table of Navi GPUs
Rev. 4.3: SSD for Lockhart, Lockhart now $399 instead of $349
Rev. 4.2: Increased Memory clock instead of 448Gbps,

Click to shrink...

If AMD's Navi TF are equivalent to Nvidia's TF then I'll be more then happy with these predictions.

 

[7thFloor]

There is a #team18_20tf ??????

Click to shrink...

basically flatearthers

 

[vivftp]

There is a #team18_20tf ??????

Click to shrink...

There are very few of us. We're a small, smelly bunch, but we're also a proud group of hopeful optimists :)

 

[bsigg]

Possible (I believe likely) Navi news on May 27th:

https://www.computextaipei.com.tw/en_US/news/info.html?id=6994382A4DFCD609

Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA) announced today that the 2019 COMPUTEX International Press Conference will be held with a Keynote by AMD President and CEO Dr. Lisa Su. The 2019 COMPUTEX International Press Conference & CEO Keynote is scheduled for Monday, May 27 at 10:00 AM in Room 201 of the Taipei International Convention Center (TICC) in Taipei, Taiwan with the keynote topic "The Next Generation of High-Performance Computing".

Click to shrink...

Under the leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD continues to grow and excel in the field of high-performance computing, graphics, and visualization technologies. The latest AMD products released include the world's first 7nm gaming GPU–AMD Radeon™ VII and first 7nm datacenter GPU, AMD Radeon Instinct MI60. Upcoming products include 7nm AMD EPYC™ datacenter processors, 3rd Gen AMD Ryzen™ desktop processors and graphics cards based on the next-generation "Navi" architecture – all of which are designed to create exceptional experiences for gamers and creators as well as help solve many of the toughest challenges in our lives. During the CEO Keynote, Dr. Lisa Su and other high-profile guests will highlight new details of upcoming products and showcase how the industry is building a new high-performance computing ecosystem that will push technology to the next level.

Click to shrink...

 

[christocolus]

Nice OT.

 

[Flandy]

#TeamOneConsoleMayOrMayNotBeMorePowerfulThanTheOther

 

[jelly]

My Teraflops estimates for next gen Console GPU

XBOX Lockhart : Around 4-5 TF

XBOX Anaconda : Around 12-12.5 TF

PS5 : Around 10-11 TF

Click to shrink...

Why is Lockhart less than Xbox One X, 1080p with 4K upscaling? Should be $300 then?

 

[BitsandBytes]

Possible (I believe likely) Navi news on May 27th:

https://www.computextaipei.com.tw/en_US/news/info.html?id=6994382A4DFCD609

Click to shrink...

I wonder if Mark Cerny could be one of the high profile guests?

 

[vivftp]

basically flatearthers

Click to shrink...

lol

As unlikely as it may seem I'm still holding out hope for a dual Navi GPU in a chiplet formation :) So if a single Navi can give us say, 12TF, I'm hoping for 18-20 TF (factoring in inefficiencies and all) for a dual setup.

 

[Darkkahn]

C'mon Phoenix Splash! Where is the poll? A speculation thread is nothing without it!

 

[DriftingSpirit]

C'mon Phoenix Splash!
Where is the poll? A speculation thread is nothing without it!

Click to shrink...

Maybe TF range?

 

[CosmicBolt]

Why is Lockhart less than Xbox One X, 1080p with 4K upscaling? Should be $300 then?

Click to shrink...

Digital Foundry expects Lockhart to be around 4TF.

 

[bsigg]

I wonder if Mark Cerny could be one of the high profile guests?

Click to shrink...

It'll be interesting to see because at the GDC AMD keynote, they had Phil Spencer on stage to talk about the partnership with MS for current and future console and data center components.

Since the PS5 is official now though, I can absolutely see it being Cerny or another engineering lead from Sony there to talk about how they're utilizing Navi and Ryzen 3.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Phoenix Splash

C'mon Phoenix Splash! Where is the poll? A speculation thread is nothing without it!

Click to shrink...

Maybe TF range?

Click to shrink...

Poll options:

• #team8TF
• #team10TF
• #team12TF
• #team14TF
• flatearthers

 

[vivftp]

It'll be interesting to see because at the GDC AMD keynote, they had Phil Spencer on stage to talk about the partnership with MS for current and future console and data center components.

Since the PS5 is official now though, I can absolutely see it being Cerny or another engineering lead from Sony there to talk about how they're utilizing Navi and Ryzen 3.

Click to shrink...

Do you mean CES AMD keynote? Or was there something at GDC as well?

 

[bsigg]

Do you mean CES AMD keynote? Or was there something at GDC as well?

Click to shrink...

GDC is where they announced the Radeon VII. During that conference they had Spencer on stage.

Or am I getting that backwards?

Edit: It was CES, just ran through the video. Had CES and GDC smashed together in my head.

 

[anexanhume]

GDC is where they announced the Radeon VII. During that conference they had Spencer on stage.

Or am I getting that backwards?

Click to shrink...

They announced RVII at CES. GDC was a few sessions on Zen, but no new info really.

 

[BitsandBytes]

It'll be interesting to see because at the GDC AMD keynote, they had Phil Spencer on stage to talk about the partnership with MS for current and future console and data center components.

Since the PS5 is official now though, I can absolutely see it being Cerny or another engineering lead from Sony there to talk about how they're utilizing Navi and Ryzen 3.

Click to shrink...

It might explain the soft PS5 reveal this week. If nothing else then we finally get Navi details at last.

 

[VX1]

It might explain the soft PS5 reveal this week. If nothing else then we finally get Navi details at last.

Click to shrink...

Indeed,plus almost instant twitter reply by Lisa Su on that Wired PS5 article,if i remember well.

 

[Deleted member 18951]

This is going to be a wild eighteen months.

Hope everyones ready :)

 

[bsigg]

They announced RVII at CES. GDC was a few sessions on Zen, but no new info really.

Click to shrink...

Yea, I had those confused.

It might explain the soft PS5 reveal this week. If nothing else then we finally get Navi details at last.

Click to shrink...

Yep. I'm just dying for for legitimate Navi news to see if it's really going to be the step AMD needs to bring their GPUs closer to Nvidia's.

 

[Deleted member 1589]

Reposting this because I believe the source rumor to be very credible.



The reddit post actually went up shortly before the Wired article.

Another interesting point to make regarding this rumor is that TSMC actually consulted with Sony (among others) during the development of InFO_MS, which would make Sony familiar with it and probably in the back of their mind when developing consoles. I'd also like to point out that Sony is not a stranger to being inventive with memory. The Vita had a special packaging method in use to get very high bandwidth to the Vita's GPU.

Also, let's assume for a second there was a typo in the original rumor, because it doesn't quite make sense as it is. It says:



Which doesn't make sense. Typically when we talk about GPUs, we talk about GB/s per GF/TF, not the other way around. However, 40GB/s per GF would be a stupidly low number, so let's now assume they meant TF. We need a second part of the comment for future information



1.6Gbps per second would result in 409.6GB/s in a 2-stack config. 1.7Gbps bumps it to 435.2GB/s, which is competitive with 256-bit GDDR6 solutions. If we're now assuming the 40-50 GB/s per TF is valid, this gives us a range of 8.7TF to 10.875TF for PS5.

Finally, regarding my skepticism around HBM2 supply, some key things have happened since Samsung's comments about low capacity. SK Hynix and Micron have both entered the market in full force (after the latter abandoned HMC development). And the crypto market crashed. With DRAM and NAND markets easing up, that capacity has to shift somewhere.

Regarding HBM pricing, it's hard to know much it has eased over the past few years (we do have some Vega VII rumored costs for reference), but I think it may be possible to get it down to less than 50% more than GDDR6 per GB, perhaps even just 35% to 40% higher. When you consider that they just need 8GB instead of 16GB of GDDR6, their solution is extremely cost competitive. At that point, it becomes a lot more attractive. HBM is also done on contract pricing (i.e. not floating with market costs), so a big order from Sony locks that factor in and sets up a mutually beneficial relationship with that partner to help them build up their own capacity.

The only rumor around this giving me pause is the digitimes rumor that stated ASE will do the packaging. Other than that, a lot of this rumor makes sense the more I dig into it.

Also, I imagine if that PS4 rev mentioned is coming, it's definitely this Fall. Since it's a console rev, it may not get cracked open to confirm the 7nm EUV from Samsung part, but the timing makes so much sense with MS pushing costs down with the SAD model and the rumored E-revision of the device internals.

Finally, here's the rumor in its entirety for posterity:



Also, this DF video came out today:

Click to shrink...

The leak talked about how the power efficiency is used to further improve the GPU.

Is MS_InfO the best if, we conclude from DF's findings that the GPU is 1800 mhz?