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Overall maximum teraflops for next-gen launch consoles?

  • 8 teraflops

    Votes: 43 1.9%
  • 9 teraflops

    Votes: 56 2.4%
  • 12 teraflops

    Votes: 978 42.5%
  • 14 teraflops

    Votes: 525 22.8%
  • Team ALL THE WAY UP +14 teraflops

    Votes: 491 21.3%
  • 10 teraflops (because for some reason I put 9 instead of 10)

    Votes: 208 9.0%

  • Total voters
    2,301
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Colbert's Next Gen Baseline Prediction
  • Deleted member 12635

    User requested account closure
    Banned
    Oct 27, 2017
    6,198
    Germany
    To celebrate the fresh smell of the new OT I provide my current prediction ... (will be updated from time to time)

    F3KRyUQ.png


    Remarks/Assumptions:
    • Clock speeds are at max at what I think is possible on a console depending on chip size (excludes the ECC vote)
    • The weak point of this prediction is the pricing, so I removed it
    • Assumed power draw: CPU 20 watt @ 3.0 GHz, GPU 1.3 watt per CU @ 1000 MHz
    • All consoles use a shared memory pool.
    • Xbox Arcade & Xbox Pro share the same Motherboard layout for shared memory with 2 chips are not applied on the Xbox Arcade.
    • Fast SSD confirmed for PS5, Assumed for Xbox
    • Following the narrative Xbox will provide peak performance leadership even it is small
    • Expecting an increase in game performance at the same computational power (TFs) just not by the number itself.
    Change Log:
    Rev 8.2: Lower clock for the lower bounds . (27-05-2019)
    Rev 8.1: Eliminate the difference between PS5/Anaconda but having 2 tier prediction for those consoles
    Rev 8: New NAVI architecture makes CUs obsolete. Consolidated to ECC vote as more likely now after Computex info (27-05-2019)
    Rev 7.1: Included the Endless Cycle Committee prediction vote into the table after a RfC (25-05-2019)
    Rev 7: Completely changed prediction scheme: Lower and Upper bounds provide the range I expect the consoles will land (16-05-2019)
    Rev 6.1: Changed from Baseline to Ballpark, Modified specs based on new information available to me
    Rev 6: Consolidated to 1 baseline per console, adjusted specs & pricing for all consoles
    Rev 5: Added 3rd tier to adapt on AdoredTV table of Navi GPUs
    Rev. 4.3: SSD for Lockhart, Lockhart now $399 instead of $349
    Rev. 4.2: Increased Memory clock instead of 448Gbps,
     
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    Detailed rumor about PS5 that was posted right before the Wired article was
  • anexanhume

    Member
    Oct 25, 2017
    12,913
    Maryland
    Reposting this because I believe the source rumor to be very credible.

    That one post at reddit by a throwaway account that PS5 uses HBM + DDR4 after the Wired article is either true or made by a madman with shit ton of time on his hands.

    As someone stated here earlier, Sony has patented a heatsink last year to work on a stacked die on top of an APU, which is how HBM chips would be at. The 1.6 HBM chips could very well be similar to the low cost HBM chips Samsung has been developing and revealed in 2016 that a GPU made for laptops could be used;



    Samsung-Low-Cost-HBM.png


    It's not like AMD doesn't have experience using HBM2 chips on their GPUs either.

    Although, the heatsink could be from a PS5 prototype that won't see the light of day, as well as Cerny has been championing unified RAM so...

    The reddit post actually went up shortly before the Wired article.

    Another interesting point to make regarding this rumor is that TSMC actually consulted with Sony (among others) during the development of InFO_MS, which would make Sony familiar with it and probably in the back of their mind when developing consoles. I'd also like to point out that Sony is not a stranger to being inventive with memory. The Vita had a special packaging method in use to get very high bandwidth to the Vita's GPU.

    Also, let's assume for a second there was a typo in the original rumor, because it doesn't quite make sense as it is. It says:

    allowed them to go below ~50 GFLOPs per GB/sec. bandwidth but still keep above 40 GFLOPs per GB/sec.

    Which doesn't make sense. Typically when we talk about GPUs, we talk about GB/s per GF/TF, not the other way around. However, 40GB/s per GF would be a stupidly low number, so let's now assume they meant TF. We need a second part of the comment for future information

    InFO_MS allows them to drive their 1.6 Gbps chips @ 1.7 Gbps (435 GB/sec.) without having to increase the voltage above 1.2v

    1.6Gbps per second would result in 409.6GB/s in a 2-stack config. 1.7Gbps bumps it to 435.2GB/s, which is competitive with 256-bit GDDR6 solutions. If we're now assuming the 40-50 GB/s per TF is valid, this gives us a range of 8.7TF to 10.875TF for PS5.

    EDIT: if you add DDR4 bandwidth, it goes up further

    anexanhume

    If you tack on the DDR4 bandwidth to the total (yielding 537.6 total), doing the GB/s per TF calculation gets you a range of 10.75TF to 13.44TF.

    I didn't notice before, but the reddit post indicates a quad-channel DDR4 interface @ 3200 MT/s. That's quite substantial, especially when you consider desktop Ryzen is paired with dual-channel DDR4. Maybe allotting extra bandwidth for overhead from moving data between the two pools and for the GPU to use directly when the GPU and CPU are working on the same data?

    Finally, regarding my skepticism around HBM2 supply, some key things have happened since Samsung's comments about low capacity. SK Hynix and Micron have both entered the market in full force (after the latter abandoned HMC development). And the crypto market crashed. With DRAM and NAND markets easing up, that capacity has to shift somewhere.

    Regarding HBM pricing, it's hard to know much it has eased over the past few years (we do have some Vega VII rumored costs for reference), but I think it may be possible to get it down to less than 50% more than GDDR6 per GB, perhaps even just 35% to 40% higher. When you consider that they just need 8GB instead of 16GB of GDDR6, their solution is extremely cost competitive. At that point, it becomes a lot more attractive. HBM is also done on contract pricing (i.e. not floating with market costs), so a big order from Sony locks that factor in and sets up a mutually beneficial relationship with that partner to help them build up their own capacity.

    The only rumor around this giving me pause is the digitimes rumor that stated ASE will do the packaging. Other than that, a lot of this rumor makes sense the more I dig into it.

    Also, I imagine if that PS4 rev mentioned is coming, it's definitely this Fall. Since it's a console rev, it may not get cracked open to confirm the 7nm EUV from Samsung part, but the timing makes so much sense with MS pushing costs down with the SAD model and the rumored E-revision of the device internals.

    Finally, here's the rumor in its entirety for posterity:

    PS4 refresh
    • sometime between september and november
    • 199
    • fabbed on samsung 7nm EUV
    • best wafer pricing in the industry
    • die size 110mm²
    • no PRO refresh, financially not viable yet
    • too close to PS5 as well
    PS5 memory and storage systems
    • 24 GB RAM in total (20 GB usable by games)
    • 8 GB in form of 2 * 4-Hi stacks HBM2
    • Sony got "amazing" deal for HBM
    • in part due to them buying up bad chips from other customers which can't run higher then 1.6 Gbps while keeping 1.2v.
    • HBM is expected to scale down in price a lot more than GDDR6 over the console lifetime
    • Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix already shifting part of their capacity towards HBM due to falling NAND prices
    • Sony will be one of the first high volume customers of TSMCs InFO_MS when mass production starts later this year (normal InFo already used by Apple in their iPhone)
    • InFO_MS brings down the cost compared to traditional silicon interposers - has thermal and performance advantage as well
    • InFO_MS allows them to drive their 1.6 Gbps chips @ 1.7 Gbps (435 GB/sec.) without having to increase the voltage above 1.2v
    • HBM is more power efficient compared to GDDR6 - the savings were invested into more GPU power
    • additional 16 GB in form of DDR4 @ 256 bit for 102.4 GB/sec.
    • 4 GB reserved for OS, the remaining 12 GB usable by games
    • memory automatically managed by HBCC and appears as 20 GB to the developers
    • HBCC manages streaming of game data from storage as well
    • developers can use the API to take control if they choose and manage the memory and storage streaming themselves
    • memory solution alleviates problems found in PS4
    • namely that CPU bandwidth reduces GPU bandwidth disproportionately
    • 2 stacks of HBM have 512 banks (more banks = fewer conflicts and higher utilization)
    • GDDR6 better than GDDR5 and GDDR5x in that regard but still less banks than HBM
    • at the same time trying to keep CPU memory access to slower DDR4
    • very satisfied with decision to use two kinds of memory for price to performance reasons
    • allowed them to go below ~50 GFLOPs per GB/sec. bandwidth but still keep above 40 GFLOPs per GB/sec.

    Also, this DF video came out today:

     
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    Upscaled - Using 'chiplets' to build next-gen CPUs
  • SharpX68K

    Member
    Nov 10, 2017
    10,516
    Chicagoland
    Neat video explaining Chiplets that's easy to understand.



    -

    This part is pretty cool! https://youtu.be/f-4hxNKvEY0?t=244

    "AMD and Intel have both proposed solutions, their approaches are different, but they all revolve around breaking up the CPU into discrete 'chiplets' and connecting them together to form a sort of, 'Voltron CPU'.

    Even if the 2020 consoles don't use them, I totally expect mid-gen upgraded refresh consoles to do so, because by 2023/2024, we may only still be on 5nm and not have reached 3nm for mass production, especially for hardware that would go into development in 2020.
     
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    Sony - FY2018 earnings
  • Rösti

    Member
    Oct 25, 2017
    801
    ir_main_btn18Q4_en.jpg


    FY2018 Earnings Announcement

    Date: 2019.4.26 [Fri] 17:15(JST)
    Presenters:
    Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Hiroki Totoki
    Senior Vice President,
    Finance Atsuko Murakami
    VP,
    Senior General Manager, Global Accounting Div. Hirotoshi Korenaga

    https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/index.html

    t1556266500z4.png


    PlayStation Meeting 2013 was held February 20, 2013, and that featured of course the reveal of PlayStation 4. On May 9, 2013, Sony announced its Consolidated Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2013 and also provided a handout featuring an FY13 forecast (among other things):

    sony_handout_fy2012teklo.png


    As you can see, PlayStation 4 is mentioned. The forecast provided for FY18 (page 5) looks like this:

    sony_handout_fy2017fhkcs.png


    While Sony has yet to announce launch date and price for the system (apart from it not launching in 2019, per Wire's recent WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SONY'S NEXT-GEN PLAYSTATION article), maybe there is a slight chance of a comment on PlayStation 5 come April 26. There's always the opportunity for analysts to ask questions about the system.
     
    Teraflop Peak Performance Lookup Table
  • Deleted member 12635

    User requested account closure
    Banned
    Oct 27, 2017
    6,198
    Germany
    Btw Colbert

    Could you post that awesome CU/ clock speed conversion chart you had in the last OT?

    And Phoenix Splash could you thread mark said chart for future references, there's been a lot of clock speed and compute unit conversion going on here in the last few pages and a chart like that would really help out.

    As you wished:
    Teraflop Peak Performance Lookup Table:
    QCV4nAW.png
     
    Computex: AMD's keynote May 27th
  • bcatwilly

    Member
    Oct 27, 2017
    2,483
    Here is something tangible at least for people to watch instead of making up crazy guesses based on nothing, lol :) AMD is going to livestream Lisa Su's Computex keynote address - http://ir.amd.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amd-livestream-dr-lisa-su-computex-2019-keynote Interesting note: "This will be the first time that a keynote speech will be delivered at the COMPUTEX pre-show international press conference."

    My time conversion from Taiwan time to EST says that you can watch at 10:00 PM EST on Sunday night, May 26th then it sounds like.

    There may be some interesting Navi tidbits and possibly even some nuggets pointing toward any partnerships with Microsoft.
     
    Memory bandwidth calculations summary
  • Oct 26, 2017
    6,151
    United Kingdom
    how much bandwidth do you think will be reached with a 24GB? i am sorry i just do not know how to calculate the memory bandwidth.

    It's really simple to calculate, modiz.

    Bandwidth is the product of = bus width x chip speed

    Bus width determines the mimum number of memory chips and each GDDR6 chip has 32 lanes.

    So,

    8 chips = 32 x 8 = 256 bit memory bus
    12 chips = 32 x 12 = 384 bit memory bus

    Now for each of the above you can double the number of chips by arranging in clamshell mode on the PCB, which gives you double the memory capacity but the same bus width.

    24GB of memory can be achieved by:
    12x 2GByte chips
    24x 1GByte chips in clamshell mode

    The memory bandwidth is as mentioned above a product of the bus width and chip speed.

    Currently Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung make 16Gbit/s GDDR6 chips.

    So,
    384 bit bus x 16Gb/s ÷ 8 bits/Byte = 768 GB/s bandwidth

    Consoles, however, will probably go with lower clocked memory chips that they can source in higher volume for cheaper (as 16Gb/s are some of the fastest currently available chips).

    So with 14Gb/s chips,
    384 bit bus x 14Gb/s ÷ 8 bits/Byte = 672 GBytes/s bandwidth
     
    Submit vote for Next thread title and we need a new OP
  • OP
    OP
    Phoenix Splash
    Mar 23, 2018
    2,654
    So, we are mere hours from possibly confirming a big sony leak that also said the ps5 is 11 to 12tf. The leak said death stranding date will be revealed in the end of may for an august launch. And this person leaked borderlands 3 reveal as well. We should know if his death stranding info is legit very soon.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/PS5/commen...game/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

    tenor.gif


    Overall, excited about FINALLY seeing how Death Stranding is, hopefully and more of Kojima's creativity.

    Do you think there's any chance of the Death Stranding footage being PS5 enhanced based? It's unlikely but maaaaaaaaaaaaybe a sneaaaaaky peek.

    Sony: "We are using Navi"

    AMD: "Sony are using Navi"

    Era: "Must be Vega. Also 8TF" *runs around with pants on head*

    There is speculation. And then there is this.

    Ayyyy

    __________________________________________________________
    Alright, hmm, folks, I must say I was not originally expecting this thread to be closed before E3 and it's actually looking like we're going to be needing a new thread pretty much by this week's end.

    Okay to shift to another prediction. 3 days in we already have reached 40 pages.

    Poll:
    Will this thread last until E3 or will it reach its 400 pages limit before E3 starts?
    405 pages before E3 and 396 of those pages is about whether the XboxNext will be more powerful than the PS5 purely based on guessing.


    Yeeeeeah, I think I gotta give it up to you both LOL!


    I'm also announcing (:p) we're going to need a new OP for the new thread. First, because I've been OP of this OT(Yes, I think it's an OT at this point) for pretty much a whole year and second because I'm not going to be able of posting and checking as much during the summer and thus, in the spicy-looking upcoming months ahead of us, I would not be able of threadmarking spicy, and I repeat, the spiciest recent events and news from our favorite sites and speculation from our very own members.

    If you want to apply for OP-ness, I guess you can just post a comment or propose a candidate. Is that how this works? But we should get this done by this weekend because we're running out of pages LOL A biiit late but we'll figure it out.



    I also took the liberty of creating a poll on the next thread title with most of the suggestions I've spotted so far during the past week to today, so the vote is yours. Multiple poll answers are allowed because I think it'd be likely that it would end up on a tie with so many choices available.


    SUBMIT YOUR VOTE FOR NEW THREAD TITLE BY CLICKING HERE
     
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