Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT5| - It's in RDNA

What do you think could be the memory setup of your preferred console, or one of the new consoles?


  • Total voters
    1,130

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
3,542
After reading the matt booty interview about the goal to release a First party game every 2 3 months on game pass , I kinda got the feeling that MS is done with AAA games .AA games released quickly is their model due to nature of gamepass (and their recent studio acquisitions also shows samething kinda, small AA studios).

Isn't that a bit alarming to Xbox gamers ?? AAA games take 4 to 5 years minimum . And sacrificing quality for quantity should not be objective of the platform holder.

Anyways this doesn't speak well to me but hey I haven't been their target audience since 2011 so maybe Xbox gamers are fine with this .
They're currently building at least two new AAA studios giving them at at least 5 studios currently working on AAA games. Releasing a game every 3 months means 4 games a year, and with Xbox having 20+ teams all 4 games could be AAA. So no, it's not alarming at all if you actually take a second to think about it.
 

M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,558
I feel the community need to discuss this whole 8k thing. There is no way we will see games running 8k/60fps out of these predicted specs, unless some form of checkerboard system is in play.

Either that, or games won't graphically improve and just get res bumps for each console.

XB S - 800p/60fps
XBX - 1800p/60fps
XB3 - 8K(checkerboard)/30fps
It just means they have HDMI 2.1.
 

Rikimaru

Member
Nov 2, 2017
158
I feel the community need to discuss this whole 8k thing. There is no way we will see games running 8k/60fps out of these predicted specs, unless some form of checkerboard system is in play.

Either that, or games won't graphically improve and just get res bumps for each console.

XB S - 800p/60fps
XBX - 1800p/60fps
XB3 - 8K(checkerboard)/30fps
There is nothing to discuss. They said PS4 can do 4k before launch and it is technically true.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,171
Only one thing can approve this rumor, only if ps4 refresh is coming around September for 199 !
I think that is something people could possibly guess (plus, the super slim could be delayed). The Samsung EUV 7nm might be a bigger indicator.

How likely will HBM price decrease? People keep saying this as fact, but how accurate is that assumption, or is it just wishful thinking to support the rumor?
Well, it's tough to say since one of the biggest reasons why the price would drop would be a console manufacturer using it. 😉
 

dgrdsv

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,229
Msk / SPb, Russia
How likely will HBM price decrease? People keep saying this as fact, but how accurate is that assumption, or is it just wishful thinking to support the rumor?
It's unlikely to decrease at all since HBM is not a mass market product. Also HBM's price hike is built into its architecture and can't go away at all - meaning the costly and complex assembly and the need for a separate interposer die which isn't free either.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,245
At the moment it seems one of them is dead .we don't know if it's anacinda or Lockhart .most probably Lockhart though
His exact words:

"So is Scarlett one console? Or is it like the Xbox One where you have a high-end, a middle class, and a cheaper one?

The video that we showed is talking about Project Scarlett. That’s the focus that we have, on that console and hitting that specification. That’s the console that we’re talking about."

So yeah, looks like Lockhart is either dead or hidden
 

Falcon511

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,373
It wouldn’t surprise me if Lockheart is dead. If you read Brad Sams book on the surface line, MS has killed off hardware very late. I believe it was a surface rat model that literally had consumer units built and packaged and MS pulled the plug on it at the very last minute. Obviously they can’t do that for consoles because of dev kits and the fact that making a console is more complex than a surface tablet.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,597
It wouldn’t surprise me if Lockheart is dead. If you read Brad Sams book on the surface line, MS has killed off hardware very late. I believe it was a surface rat model that literally had consumer units built and packaged and MS pulled the plug on it at the very last minute. Obviously they can’t do that for consoles because of dev kits and the fact that making a console is more complex than a surface tablet.

If the rumours are true it would be rather easier since there suppose to be one devs kit for both Ana and Lock .
Plus it's still early so no consoles get made yet and it would just be R&D down the drain .
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,164
United Kingdom
Thanks Chris, but I think the link is broken.

What did Sebbbi say?

RT is not a fundamental component of RDNA. Any more than the RT cores in nVidia's hardware are a fundamental component of Turing - they're not. There are Turing cards without RTX. RT acceleration seems to be a feature orthogonal to the base architecture in both the nVidia and AMD cases.

Both consoles are RDNA. They may be a second, 2020 instance of RDNA that's a bit tweaked vs the RDNA cards this year. That 2020 hw might have RT stuff in it, but there could well be SKUs that don't have it, while still being the same base 'RDNA 2020' arch as the others.There is no distinct 'RDNA/GCN' hybrid - if RDNA has legacies of GCN in it, so will every RDNA going forward.
[/QUOTE

Thank you!

LOL. I was never team HBM, look at my poll choice. I was promoting the most technically viable alternative for discussion to make things interesting. I stated at the time that HBM2 plus quad channel DDR4 seemed to defeat the purpose, and I still believe that.

Kyoufu is wagering a ban on no console using HBM.

My wager was that at least one console will have 10TF. FWIW, his wager is safer than mine IMO.
Lol, thanks for the clarification. I got confused when most of the discussion got lost amid the rest of the thread discussion on other topics.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,932
Barcelona Spain

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,393


i hope CDPR patches the PS5/anaconda version for CP2077 with options for 4k60 (or close to 4k, i guess they might not reach native) and 1080p/1440p 30fps ray tracing.
This what I was fearing, no neutral ray-tracing solution like new COD engine which will work on all but a partnership with NVidia RTX instead. Say bye bye to ray-tracing support on next-gen consoles and RDNA 2 GPUs.

Also:
i hope CDPR patches the PS5/anaconda version for CP2077 with options for 4k60 (or close to 4k, i guess they might not reach native) and 1080p/1440p 30fps ray tracing.

What is the purpose of next-gen then if they can't reach Native 4K on a current-gen game then?Have some faith please. :D
 
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Dictator

Digital Foundry
Verified
Oct 26, 2017
1,912
Berlin, 'SCHLAND
This what I was fearing, no neutral ray-tracing solution like new COD engine which will work on all but a partnership with NVidia RTX instead. Say bye bye to ray-tracing support on next-gen consoles and Navi 2 GPUs.
What are you on about?
This will use DXR probably (all Redengine games have been DX) - which is vendor agnostic. RTX is just the name for NV's implementation of DXR standard in driver and hardware.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
3,709
This what I was fearing, no neutral ray-tracing solution like new COD engine which will work on all but a partnership with NVidia RTX instead. Say bye bye to ray-tracing support on next-gen consoles and Navi 2 GPUs.
i doubt that this actually hurts the chances of a next gen ray tracing. the other way around, it means that by the time the consoles are out they will already have a ray tracing implementation and more than enough time to add it.
if they somehow have exclusivity its probably only for the PC version.
the likelyness of ray tracing on console depends on if they want to commit the effort and if the ray tracing on consoles is good enough.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,999
i doubt that this actually hurts the chances of a next gen ray tracing. the other way around, it means that by the time the consoles are out they will already have a ray tracing implementation and more than enough time to add it.
if they somehow have exclusivity its probably only for the PC version.
the likelyness of ray tracing on console depends on if they want to commit the effort and if the ray tracing on consoles is good enough.
Yup. Console sales dwarf PC sales for just about every multiplat out there. Also consider how little market penetration RTX GPUs have, yet every single next gen console will have RT capability. The big question is whether they do it the same.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,393
What are you on about?
This will use DXR probably (all Redengine games have been DX) - which is vendor agnostic. RTX is just the name for NV's implementation of DXR standard in driver and hardware.
Plastica-Man please.
i doubt that this actually hurts the chances of a next gen ray tracing. the other way around, it means that by the time the consoles are out they will already have a ray tracing implementation and more than enough time to add it.
if they somehow have exclusivity its probably only for the PC version.
the likelyness of ray tracing on console depends on if they want to commit the effort and if the ray tracing on consoles is good enough.
I knew you will answer this and insist on this again. Check my previous post in this thread, please:

Well I hope so. they can use RTX solution for NVidia cards and do their own solution for consoles and ATI GPUs, but sincerely I doubt this will happen.
How many games did have a partnership woth NVidia to implement HairWorks for NVidia GPUs, did implement TressFX for consoles and ATI GPUs or at least create an in house solution as good as that? Same for other effects and gameworks. So don't count on that very much.
It's either that or that if there is a partnership with a GPU manufacturer, unless the game company didn't sign one and opted for an universal solution like COD i mentioned


Even if this is what its on paper, it's the decision to the devs of a certain game whether to implement the NV implementation due to a partnership or not sign any partnership and do the general supporting solution like COD.
CDProjektRed chose to do a partnership with NVIDIA like with Witcher 3. So don't expect them to offer a NV solution to consoles and ATI GPUs (obvious) and or offer a replacement solution for the others. A deal is a deal and they have to respect it.
This is purely a marketing agreement and nothing related to how the tech is developed. This is what many aren't getting and this happeend before and will happen.
We won't have ray-tracing on consoles and ATI GPUs for games having partnership with RTX and NVidia unless 2 cases: The company that signed a partnership with NVidia is willing to offer ray-tracing on other platforms than NVidia thus not fulfilling their deal or that NVidia will allow RTX implementation to work on consoles and ATI GPUs (with no hurdle) and both have chances close to none to happen.

Until then, it's a big NO.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,597
i doubt that this actually hurts the chances of a next gen ray tracing. the other way around, it means that by the time the consoles are out they will already have a ray tracing implementation and more than enough time to add it.
if they somehow have exclusivity its probably only for the PC version.
the likelyness of ray tracing on console depends on if they want to commit the effort and if the ray tracing on consoles is good enough.
Yep RT on consoles going to depend on how much effort Sony and MS put into it.
Hope it's a fair amount so the whole industry can move forward faster .
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,932
Barcelona Spain
This what I was fearing, no neutral ray-tracing solution like new COD engine which will work on all but a partnership with NVidia RTX instead. Say bye bye to ray-tracing support on next-gen consoles and Navi 2 GPUs.
If raytracing is working bad on consoles this is because they will not have raytraced hardware. If they have it, it work correctly... There is no miracle...
 

KennyX

Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,473
DDR4 use very few power. I doubt 16 Gb of DDR4 3200 use more than 8 watts without the controller


Here DDR4 consumption measurement.
That is the point. You also need a memory controller if you want to go HBM + DDR4 instead of just HBM.
And if you want to use a decent interface with 256 bit that is at last somewhat useful DDR4 bandwidth, you increase the power consumption by a lot.
It's not like they run a desktop PC setting with just a 64bit interface.

It's the total bandwidth, that determines the total power draw of your memory solution. And for that DDR4 and GDDR6 are not very different. They're the same technology anyways. Anything you would accomplish in power saving by going with HBM, would be negated by DDR4 to a great degree.
 

thevid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
324
I knew you will answer this and insist on this again. Check my previous post in this thread, please:

Even if this is what its on paper, it's the decision to the devs of a certain game whether to implement the NV implementation due to a partnership or not sign any partnership and do the general supporting solution like COD.
CDProjektRed chose to do a partnership with NVIDIA like with Witcher 3. So don't expect them to offer a NV solution to consoles and ATI GPUs (obvious) and or offer a replacement solution for the others. A deal is a deal and they have to respect it.
This is purely a marketing agreement and nothing related to how the tech is developed. This is what many aren't getting and this happeend before and will happen.
We won't have ray-tracing on consoles and ATI GPUs for games having partnership with RTX and NVidia unless 2 cases: The company that signed a partnership with NVidia is willing to offer ray-tracing on other platforms than NVidia thus not fulfilling their deal or that NVidia will allow RTX implementation to work on consoles and ATI GPUs (with no hurdle) and both have chances close to none to happen.

Until then, it's a big NO.
As long as the games are using DXR, AMD hardware that supports ray tracing will be fine.

You basically have three layers. The API, which is the language/instruction set the game uses to talk to the hardware. Then the drivers, which take those API instructions and interprets them for the hardware, and finally the hardware itself. DXR is the API, RTX is the driver and hardware (RT cores).

DXR is platform agnostic. If AMD wanted to, they could put out drivers today that take those DXR calls/instructions, and have them run on compute cores. It would be horribly slow, like ray tracing on 10xx Nvidia cards, but there's technically nothing to stop AMD from supporting it today.

This is different from something like PhysX, which was a proprietary Nvidia physics API (but is now open-source, so AMD could even support PhysX now).
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,245
Vague on purpose. Decision in the flux (capacitor)
Totally! all the behind the scenes twists and turns are what I really find fascinating.

Also that almost nothing is ever certain. Except death ofc (for now).

So I like to believe that PS5 was 2019 and then change to 2020 for whatever reason (maybe MS forced them), and that MS had 2 SKU's and now they're not that sure anymore, etc
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,112
After reading the matt booty interview about the goal to release a First party game every 2 3 months on game pass , I kinda got the feeling that MS is done with AAA games .AA games released quickly is their model due to nature of gamepass (and their recent studio acquisitions also shows samething kinda, small AA studios).

Isn't that a bit alarming to Xbox gamers ?? AAA games take 4 to 5 years minimum . And sacrificing quality for quantity should not be objective of the platform holder.

Anyways this doesn't speak well to me but hey I haven't been their target audience since 2011 so maybe Xbox gamers are fine with this .
they will still have 2 yearly AAAs with your forza +halo/gears/fable, but i expect the rest of the games to be lower budgeted 2.5A yea.
This was ZhugeEX on an institutional investor he happened to talk to.
This coupled with some of the interviews that Matt Booty gave show that they are looking for AAA games, but they have brought in studios that can give Game Pass content when AAA games are not showing up.

It is not hard to imagine that they launch within the first year we will see Forza Motorsport, Halo Infinite, a third party game (because the have always had one/two at launch year). And not to mention that Microsoft studios have generally not taken that time (4 or 5 years) to get AAA games out.
So...it's a good thing that Ms is sticking with something that developers straight up don't want? There's nothing to celebrate.
Developers are already using different setups for PC, they are already making more and more games for base console and mid gen consoles. I honestly do not know why people think that it is a big thing, not when both Microsoft and Sony have stated that the porting process between the consoles they have something that can be done in minimal time with minimal staff.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,999
so the RX 5700 series was the navi 10 after all? so these GPUs and the consoles are indeed made of the same base.
In that case i think its safe to say that in terms of raw teraflops number we wont surpass the 9.75TF mark.
We have no idea what version of Navi MS is using. Sony could be using Navi 10 as early silicon to get dev kits out sooner. They could even do a chiplet Zen 2 Navi 10 APU out of off-the-shelf parts before their custom APU die is sampling. It’s good to be skeptical about a 1.8GHz GPU in consoles, but you have to peg Navi 10 to the max to approximate your console if you plan to have more CUs.
 

GameSeeker

Member
Oct 27, 2017
51
That is the point. You also need a memory controller if you want to go HBM + DDR4 instead of just HBM.
And if you want to use a decent interface with 256 bit that is at last somewhat useful DDR4 bandwidth, you increase the power consumption by a lot.
It's not like they run a desktop PC setting with just a 64bit interface.

It's the total bandwidth, that determines the total power draw of your memory solution. And for that DDR4 and GDDR6 are not very different. They're the same technology anyways. Anything you would accomplish in power saving by going with HBM, would be negated by DDR4 to a great degree.
That doesn't make any technical sense. Have you ever designed a memory subsystem or worked with someone who has?
 

op_ivy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,458
A lot of unsubstantiated jumps being made in the last few pages re: positioning and MS's strategy. I would be 99% confident in the below points:

1. MS didn't hear about some unhappy dev or tweet about PS5 power and instantly change their whole plan, kill Lockhart, write off the R+D etc. etc. Sorry but that just sounds like a fanboy narrative. Starting back in 2015 with backward compatibility, they have been executing on a very clear, very deliberate strategy to build an ecosystem and service rather than compete head to head for console sales. Lockhart and Anaconda are guaranteed to be part of that plan. And this isn't just the Xbox team anymore - we saw Gaming mentioned by the CEO at their dev conference (Build) for the first time as one of their 3 core cloud platforms. Very, very unlikely Microsoft panics and pulls the plug on their strategy just because PS5 gained a TF on them or whatever.

2. MS didn't talk about two consoles in the E3 video for a simple reason: it would sound confusing. Over a year out, you keep the message simple. You talk about the awesome one. Then later you offer people "same CPU, same SSD, same ray tracing, play every first party title at launch with included 1 month of Game Pass, all for just $299!" or whatever. That's the value prop on Lockhart.

3. Forget xCloud as a major component in the market strategy for console hardware. We already know that wave 1 of xCloud is literally using Xbox One S hardware. You won't be streaming Anaconda games to your Xbox One as a budget replacement for Lockhart, because there's nothing in the data center to run them (yet). Phil Spencer has essentially said in other MS interviews around E3 that they are targeting mobile or giving people an option to play their games when they're away from their console, not trying to push streaming as the primary way to play next gen games. And he was very open about "not everybody has the connection for this." (Of course, xCloud may tie into hardware design, assuming they continue to deploy console hardware into data centers and not go cloud native as Google has.)

EDIT: To clarify, implication of point 3 is that you need Lockhart since they don't want to go to market with only a super high end device and streaming can't cover the low end.

4. If PS5 is indeed more powerful, that almost certainly means that it's also a massive 250W+, minimum $500 beast. We know that Anaconda was being designed with Lockhart in mind as the budget option so that Anaconda could cover the high end of the market and be positioned as premium, so that would put PS5 in the same (or higher) price range. That's all the more reason for MS to launch a $299-399 "budget" SKU. I'm guessing they'd see it as a highly desirable replay of 360 vs. PS3 in terms of pricing, even if the hardcore turn up their noses at Lockhart.
good post.

i'd add 5. if lockhart were canceled, MS would be crystal clear that scarlett was one console. there would be no reason to be vague.


lockhart+anaconda is the plan. bet me.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
Oct 27, 2017
423
Seattle
I think you're missing a confounding factor here. The 5700XT isn't actually clocked at 1.9GHz, but effectively at 1.755GHz, and 80% of that is only 1.4GHz. A 60CU chip at that speed would only develop 10.8 TF, not "close to 12".
It doesn't change my point that you do benefit from going wider and reducing clock speeds. Spreading heat across more units at lower clock speeds should also help improve the ability to dissipate heat, but I don't have a reasonable way to estimate the effect. Nor, as I pointed out, can I guess how a second iteration of RDNA will improve matters. Adopting v1.0 of anything generally means you wind up with some sub-optimal aspects that another small revision can iron out. I suspect the 2020 launch reflects dissatisfaction with where Navi was going to be this year, suggesting that there's something worth waiting for coming in the next iteration.

We shall see, of course.

Further, if 60CU is the active count, yield concerns would drive the chip to physically contain 64CU. Or, any chip with a defect is unusable. This might not affect the power draw, but either way it would make the chip even more expensive.
It would definitely be expensive, no argument there. I would be shocked if the 40CU designs didn't have any redundancy built in or the same applies, so I assumed the 50% increase in size accounted for increased redundancy as well. Hoping for zero defects at ~250mm2 is likely to have serious yield implications.
 
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KennyX

Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,473
That doesn't make any technical sense. Have you ever designed a memory subsystem or worked with someone who has?
A hypothetical system with a total memory bandwidth of 700GB/s uses around the same power with either a DRR4 or GDDR6 solution.
So there is no significant power saving at all using DRR4 on a per throughput basis.
That is the point.


HBM on the other hand is a lot better when it comes to power consumption per GB/s
 

M3rcy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
335
Read my post above. Nothing related to hardware or software, it's just pure marketing and commercial reasons. How hard it is to explain? As if this is not happening rigth now.
You're concerns are unfounded. These games being marketed as RTX titles will have no effect on whether the raytracing functionality runs on non-Nvidia hardware anymore than a title being marketed as a "The Way It's Meant To Be Played" prevents it from running on non-Nvidia hardware.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,393
You're concerns are unfounded. These games being marketed as RTX titles will have no effect on whether the raytracing functionality runs on non-Nvidia hardware anymore than a title being marketed as a "The Way It's Meant To Be Played" prevents it from running on non-Nvidia hardware.
I really hope to be wrong and to see the same games that are having a partnership with NVidia for RTX RT to have RT on consoles and working on ATI GPUs. If it doesn't happen, then don't get surprised. Only the future will tell us.
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,927
The Netherlands
Looking back after watching all the conferences, I think it was a brilliant marketing move for Sony to announce the PS5 a few weeks ago, and other hardware makers will surely take notice for the future.

The news would have been buried underneath all the other gaming news around E3. I feel only the techies are even talking about Scarlett right now while the PS5 dominated mainstream press cycles for a good while. To be honest, it didn't help that their reveal was basically a complete re-tread of what Sony mentioned a few weeks ago.