Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT5| - It's in RDNA

What do you think could be the memory setup of your preferred console, or one of the new consoles?


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Splader

Member
Feb 12, 2018
946
This was mentioned and discussed heavily in this thread when the article came out.

Cliffs: "of" makes it a nothing statement. "our next generation OF consoles" = we have made many consoles, and this is next.

For it to mean what you imply it means (multiple consoles), it needs to read "our next generation consoles"

As unapersson points out, "next generation of console" is grammatically odd at the least, if not plain poor grammar.
I figured it would have been discussed, people here are like spies.
It's probably just a mis or weirdly worded statement, but it's enough for me to think Lockhart is currently still on the table.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,734
You can't look at past history and say neither company won't want to more powerful system .
They both want it , the question of who is going to come down to many factors that you can make a case for both companies.
Either way they should be close which going to make everything else matter even more.
 

gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,230
1. Most tech people thought the PS4 wouldn’t be $399.
2. Opinion. I disagree.
3. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t their going in approach.
5. They are built on the same process and all the technology Microsoft uses would have been available a year earlier.
On 5) I don’t think that’s true at all. Phil Spencer indicated that they had a spec for 2016 but shelved it. The extra year would have been very helpful in achieving the clocks at a given yield rate, that were a large part of Scorpio’s improvement over the Pro. I think as much as time, cost was a factor too. The investment in cooling helped a lot with clocks obviously too. They also spent more die space, and omitted some features to pack more cus into that space. Cost would allow them more leeway on the larger die size and higher clock speed vs yield rate.

I think if you gave the Sony team the same timeframe and same unit BOM, you’d have had much the same outcome. Perhaps a little less raw flops in order to accommodate rpm etc. It would be wrong to say Pro vs X is and apples to apples opportunity to compare engineering talent.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,092
So why didn't Microsoft release a year earlier then?

The fact is Microsoft have clever people, Sony have clever people. There both designing consoles for gaming, from the same chip maker, with the same key parts, at the same time and the same goals so I really don't see this assumption that Microsoft will automatically be more powerful.

It's basically going to come down to a few tweaks here and there between the two so it's 50/50. I personally think a lot of people need to accept the fact, (not saying you) that the two next gen machines will be nearly identical.

Services, games and feature will separate them.
Because they didn’t start designing it until a year later.
I fully expect their solution to be less compact actually as AMD has shown time and time again that they are spending more transistors building the same blocks as NV.
Also - RT is not "effects". This slide was misleading in many ways (I liked the "power of the cloud" step there especially). You can have limited use of RT in your scene but you can't limit RT to just some effects - how would that even work?
The implication from the slide is that they’ll recommend using RT for a limited set of effects, and the size of the enhancement will be reduced meaning less overall capability.

chris 1515 has also done a good job showing Sony’s interest in kd trees. I believe AMD is interested in that method too.




Finally we add 4 traversal units (TU) to each core. Each unit is accompanied by a small register file holding just enough rays to hide cache hit latency. The 4 units in a core share a small node cache.
With this example platform we have a peak throughput of 176 billion traversal steps per second. Keeping in mind that on GPUs all vector instructions consume FPU issue slots, the traversal units provide the equivalent of 4.4 TFLOPs ad- ditional performance, yet occupy only 4-8% of current ALU die area.
On 5) I don’t think that’s true at all. Phil Spencer indicated that they had a spec for 2016 but shelved it. The extra year would have been very helpful in achieving the clocks at a given yield rate, that were a large part of Scorpio’s improvement over the Pro. I think as much as time, cost was a factor too. The investment in cooling helped a lot with clocks obviously too. They also spent more die space, and omitted some features to pack more cus into that space. Cost would allow them more leeway on the larger die size and higher clock speed vs yield rate.

I think if you gave the Sony team the same timeframe and same unit BOM, you’d have had much the same outcome. Perhaps a little less raw flops in order to accommodate rpm etc. It would be wrong to say Pro vs X is and apples to apples opportunity to compare engineering talent.
This seems to presume I’m implying there’s a difference in capability. I thought it was clear there was a difference in intent. That very intent is the premise of believing a difference in design objectives exists in the first place.
 
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Red Tapir

Member
May 10, 2019
128
If MS had canned the Lockhart, wouldn't they tell people about it?

In all interviews I read they never could give a firm answer, which makes me think the goal is to keep it hidden, while pushing the WHOLE of Scarlet has a premium product.
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
482
If MS had canned the Lockhart, wouldn't they tell people about it?

In all interviews I read they never could give a firm answer, which makes me think the goal is to keep it hidden, while pushing the WHOLE of Scarlet has a premium product.
Tell people? As in consumers? Did they ever officially say a 2 console approach was coming?
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,303
Seattle, WA
My size analysis--though it is if course tentative and unconfirmed--suggests that this configuration would be bigger than the Anaconda chip we've seen. A 54 active CU chip might be possible within that constraint, but it'd have to be two SEs each with more DCUs. An entire new SE requires too much support silicon.
Maybe you can do some exact calculations rather than spitballing it?
2x64 bit phy are around 10.45mm.
Central logic with 40 CUs, Rops, and ACE area is ~140mm
Display engines and IO at the bottom won't be scaled.

So with 60CUs (210mm) and 10 GDDR6 controllers, we're at ~260mm. Might be a little over since ROPs and some other pieces might not need to be scaled.

260mm GPU + 70mm zen2 = 330mm. There is still 30mm left over on a 1x sized die for special sauces and IO.

 

Flutter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,714
Oh man, it's so hard to keep up with this thread during E3 AND AMD's full Navi reveal :)

I'm not sure if it was brought up, but I'm pretty sure both Flight Simulator and Halo Infinite used ray tracing in their trailers.
* A very noisy reflection on a curvy surface:


* A very noisy reflection of the chief on the wall:


In Halo it's on a flat surface but it's not SSR, it's very noisy (take a look at the 4K trailer in youtube, you can see the time-stamp in the image and see how noisy it is when the camera moves) and doesn't show occlusion artifacts even though the character is occluding most of the Chief.
I was thinking Halo was using ray tracing when it looked like there was some ray traced ambient occlusion in effect.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,071
We are a;ready on the edge of what can possibly be squeezed into an APU - how will they get RT hardware in there? Are we thinking it’s more an extension of existing CUs, so each one is a little fatter for the extra features? Rather than dedicated silicon
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,468

Johannes

Member
Oct 28, 2017
225
The line refers to Project Scarlet as plural. Sure that could be referring to make an eventual X like upgrade in 2025, but I think it's a little premature to talk about that.
It wouldn't make sense to talk about future (~2023) mid-gen upgrades, since the website lists what platforms Halo Infinite will debut in 2020:

"Halo Infinite will debut in Holiday 2020 on Xbox One, PC and our next generation of consoles, Project Scarlett."

This definitely gives the impression that MS is still going to launch both Lockhart and Anaconda simultaneously. This was a good finding Splander.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
1,038
St Kitts
Wouldn't that mean no unified memory for the CPU and GPU? A feature Mark Cerny advertised as a highly requested dev feature and a big advantage of the PS4 ?
Yes, its sought after.... or was.... but it's not anymore more complicated than every single game made for the PC. It's only a problem when you do have enough RAM to begin with, and you have a system as complex as the PS3.

If you have enough DDR4 ((at least 8GB for the CPU) and at least 8GB HBM for the GPU.... devs aren't going to have any problems with RAM. Even in a unified pool all RAM is addressed anyways.
 

Florin4k4

Banned
Mar 18, 2019
228
Now thats one game I would be there day one for on new Xbox, Microsoft's conference didn't really interest me with what they showed but that looked incredible, especially if they can pull off what it looks like their trying to do.

Can only imagine how good that will look and feel on a 60" Tv next gen

EDIT:' Sorry for double post my internets jumping all over the place
Yeah. For me it was the highlight of their show. Looked Incredible. If next gen Looks anywhere near that good i will be more than pleased. But i doubt we will get those graphics Even on high end PCs. I wonder if there is anything cloud based in the game (like the environment ir something like that)
 

Ōkami Haundo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,699
PA - US
If MS had canned the Lockhart, wouldn't they tell people about it?

In all interviews I read they never could give a firm answer, which makes me think the goal is to keep it hidden, while pushing the WHOLE of Scarlet has a premium product.
I'd say yes, but I don't think Microsoft ever confirmed the existence of two consoles anyway. I thought our speculation was just based off of rumors, and Phil saying "consoles" last E3.
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,303
Seattle, WA
Hmm. That video makes it sound like Infinite is next gen only. With the wondering about the impact of the new CPU on gameplay mechanics specifically, and how things like richer AI and destructibility can affect gameplay. I thought it was coming to XB1 also?
Halo will be 30fps on current gen consoles.

On Xb1. 30fps with dynamic checkerboarded 1080p.
On 1x. 30fps with dynamic checkerboarded 4k.

On Lockhart. 60fps with 1080p RT? CPU headroom might be used for assisting RT.
On Anaconda 60fps with 4k RT.

Might not have RT. I don't expect 343 to be pioneers in rendering graphics amongst the MS studios.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
1,038
St Kitts
Maybe you can do some exact calculations rather than spitballing it?
2x64 bit phy are around 10.45mm.
Central logic with 40 CUs, Rops, and ACE area is ~140mm
Display engines and IO at the bottom won't be scaled.

So with 60CUs (210mm) and 10 GDDR6 controllers, we're at ~260mm. Might be a little over since ROPs and some other pieces might not need to be scaled.

260mm GPU + 70mm zen2 = 330mm. There is still 30mm left over on a 1x sized die for special sauces and IO.

All this talk about whats left after adding this or that doesn't really pant the whole picture though.

The OG PS4 was a 328mm2 chip on a 28nm process and sony paid around $121 or 37c/mm2. We have no idea how much a 7nm chip cost.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,228
Yes, its sought after.... or was.... but it's not anymore more complicated than every single game made for the PC. It's only a problem when you do have enough RAM to begin with, and you have a system as complex as the PS3.

If you have enough DDR4 ((at least 8GB for the CPU) and at least 8GB HBM for the GPU.... devs aren't going to have any problems with RAM. Even in a unified pool all RAM is addressed anyways.
Plus the SSD. Crazy read speeds means there's way less RAM being taken up by assets that the system is just guessing you might use soon.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,352
Yes, its sought after.... or was.... but it's not anymore more complicated than every single game made for the PC. It's only a problem when you do have enough RAM to begin with, and you have a system as complex as the PS3.

If you have enough DDR4 ((at least 8GB for the CPU) and at least 8GB HBM for the GPU.... devs aren't going to have any problems with RAM. Even in a unified pool all RAM is addressed anyways.
I think the biggest problem with the PS3 was that the 512MB of RAM was split into two pools of 256MB so you pretty much only had access to half the ram xbox 360 games had.

Would the SSDs help with mitigate lower RAM? IIRC, MS said they have something like 4 Gbps but Sony's patents were for 8Gbps. That should help them fill up the RAM extremely fast. Of course next gen games will look a lot better than current gen games and will use mega textures and a lot more NPC models. Would 8GB be enough for realistic looking open world games that look like this AND have NPCs on screen at once?





 

gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,230
Halo will be 30fps on current gen consoles.
Ah, thanks. That gives some wiggle room... although not the full whack for gameplay work that the new processor might allow.

Is that actually a thing? Cause that sounds awesome.
On the face of it, the more bandwidth you have to storage, the less you should need to keep 'hot' in memory, and the more you might possibly be able to defer to on-demand loading.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,448
Florida
Oh man, it's so hard to keep up with this thread during E3 AND AMD's full Navi reveal :)

I'm not sure if it was brought up, but I'm pretty sure both Flight Simulator and Halo Infinite used ray tracing in their trailers.
* A very noisy reflection on a curvy surface:


* A very noisy reflection of the chief on the wall:


In Halo it's on a flat surface but it's not SSR, it's very noisy (take a look at the 4K trailer in youtube, you can see the time-stamp in the image and see how noisy it is when the camera moves) and doesn't show occlusion artifacts even though the character is occluding most of the Chief.
I noticed that too when they showed Chief's profile close up you could see the noisy shadowing in parts.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,352
Hmm. That video makes it sound like Infinite is next gen only. With the wondering about the impact of the new CPU on gameplay mechanics specifically, and how things like richer AI and destructibility can affect gameplay. I thought it was coming to XB1 also?
Sometimes DF leaves me scratching my head. There is little to nothing next gen about that trailer. I get that they dont have anything to compare against but surely they can look at some tech demos to see whats possible.

The character models look pretty much the same as other current gen games. i thought the Halo 5 character models in the video looked very close to what we saw in Infinite. Even if they think it looks better, it doesnt matter because its not a next gen leap.

If slightly more accurate lighting, reflections and shadows at 60 fps are all what we expect from next gen consoles then maybe Phil was right and a 4 tflops Navi GPU should be the best way forward.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,448
Florida
Sometimes DF leaves me scratching my head. There is little to nothing next gen about that trailer. I get that they dont have anything to compare against but surely they can look at some tech demos to see whats possible.

The character models look pretty much the same as other current gen games. i thought the Halo 5 character models in the video looked very close to what we saw in Infinite. Even if they think it looks better, it doesnt matter because its not a next gen leap.

If slightly more accurate lighting, reflections and shadows at 60 fps are all what we expect from next gen consoles then maybe Phil was right and a 4 tflops Navi GPU should be the best way forward.
I disagree. Watching the trailer in 4K on a 65" TV the game looks really good. You can't run that at 60fps this gen.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,228
Is that actually a thing? Cause that sounds awesome.
It's pretty simple. The data you need to draw the current frame needs to be in RAM. It's sent there by the storage drive. On PS4 you have like 5GB of RAM, but the HDD only sends data at about 100MB/s, so it would take about 50 seconds to swap everything in that RAM out. They deal with this by using only part of the RAM for the current scene, and the rest to hold assets the system expects will be needed for future frames.

On PS5, however, we will have an SSD with read speeds of likely 4-8GB/s. Assuming 20GB of RAM for games, you can swap all that data out in only 3-6 seconds. Ergo, the number of assets the RAM needs to hold for future frames and the guesswork it needs to engage in is massively reduced, as it can react far more quickly on the fly. Of course, the jump in RAM next generation will be only 3x rather than the 16x we've gotten in each new Playstation, so I'm not sure how much of the effect will improve games as opposed to simply making up for that smaller RAM jump. Can anyone help with explaining that?
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,092
I think the biggest problem with the PS3 was that the 512MB of RAM was split into two pools of 256MB so you pretty much only had access to half the ram xbox 360 games had.

Would the SSDs help with mitigate lower RAM? IIRC, MS said they have something like 4 Gbps but Sony's patents were for 8Gbps. That should help them fill up the RAM extremely fast. Of course next gen games will look a lot better than current gen games and will use mega textures and a lot more NPC models. Would 8GB be enough for realistic looking open world games that look like this AND have NPCs on screen at once?



I can’t believe you’d leak HZD2 like that.
 

Heckler456

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,147
Belgium
It's pretty simple. The data you need to draw the current frame needs to be in RAM. It's sent there by the storage drive. On PS4 you have like 5GB of RAM, but the HDD only sends data at about 100MB/s, so it would take about 50 seconds to swap everything in that RAM out. They deal with this by using only part of the RAM for the current scene, and the rest to hold assets the system expects will be needed for future frames.

On PS5, however, we will have an SSD with read speeds of likely 4-8GB/s. Assuming 20GB of RAM for games, you can swap all that data out in only 3-6 seconds. Ergo, the number of assets the RAM needs to hold for future frames and the guesswork it needs to engage in is massively reduced, as it can react far more quickly on the fly. Of course, the jump in RAM next generation will be only 3x rather than the 16x we've gotten in each new Playstation, so I'm not sure how much of the effect will improve games as opposed to simply making up for that smaller RAM jump. Can anyone help with explaining that?
I guess it would depend on how much RAM is generally reserved for those predicted assets. Sounds like whatever improvements there would be in terms of RAM utilization would be heavily case-dependent.
 

Terbinator

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,069
It's pretty simple. The data you need to draw the current frame needs to be in RAM. It's sent there by the storage drive. On PS4 you have like 5GB of RAM, but the HDD only sends data at about 100MB/s, so it would take about 50 seconds to swap everything in that RAM out. They deal with this by using only part of the RAM for the current scene, and the rest to hold assets the system expects will be needed for future frames.

On PS5, however, we will have an SSD with read speeds of likely 4-8GB/s. Assuming 20GB of RAM for games, you can swap all that data out in only 3-6 seconds. Ergo, the number of assets the RAM needs to hold for future frames and the guesswork it needs to engage in is massively reduced, as it can react far more quickly on the fly. Of course, the jump in RAM next generation will be only 3x rather than the 16x we've gotten in each new Playstation, so I'm not sure how much of the effect will improve games as opposed to simply making up for that smaller RAM jump. Can anyone help with explaining that?
In a best case scenario, yes. Tha'ts not how it works when it comes to randomly reading files from the drive (SSD or otherwise) in real life though.

I haven't ready the Wired article so not up to speed on Cerny sauce, so could well be wrong. But for me reading how people are intepreting what the SSD means for these consoles (and don't get me wrong, it is good) is on-par with teraflop wars.
 

Dave.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,165

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,228
I guess it would depend on how much RAM is generally reserved for those predicted assets. Sounds like whatever improvements there would be in terms of RAM utilization would be heavily case-dependent.
I believe someone posted a few weeks ago that their developer friend said that the PS4 would've only needed 2-3GB of RAM if it had a similar SSD setup.

In a best case scenario, yes. Tha'ts not how it works when it comes to randomly reading files from the drive (SSD or otherwise) in real life though.

I haven't ready the Wired article so not up to speed on Cerny sauce, so could well be wrong. But for me reading how people are intepreting what the SSD means for these consoles (and don't get me wrong, it is good) is on-par with teraflop wars.
Then how does it work, exactly? Because you sound like you're claiming that the SSD won't be much faster at reading random files, when I've heard that seek times are one of the biggest improvements to them.
 

Noctis114

Member
Jan 25, 2019
702
Hmm. That video makes it sound like Infinite is next gen only. With the wondering about the impact of the new CPU on gameplay mechanics specifically, and how things like richer AI and destructibility can affect gameplay. I thought it was coming to XB1 also?
What if Infinites on the Xbox One but made by another team.
 

Terbinator

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,069
Then how does it work, exactly? Because you sound like you're claiming that the SSD won't be much faster at reading random files, when I've heard that seek times are one of the biggest improvements to them.
Random reads aren't done at 3GB/s, though, although it is the area where their difference is felt most. Look through any SSD reviews posted recently (SATA or NVMe doesn't matter).

Also I'm not a game developer, but having "free" RAM doesn't make sense. You want to have stuff in RAM as much as feasibly possible as it's astronimcally faster than loading it from an SSD in to empty RAM to then process.
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
530
Israel
I noticed that too when they showed Chief's profile close up you could see the noisy shadowing in parts.
The shadow artifacts are actually very common shadow map artifacts so I'm 99% sure that Halo Infinite's shadows are not using RT. I'm also not seeing any evidence for GI or AO using RT. Reflections are our last resort :)

Hmm. That video makes it sound like Infinite is next gen only. With the wondering about the impact of the new CPU on gameplay mechanics specifically, and how things like richer AI and destructibility can affect gameplay. I thought it was coming to XB1 also?
If they drop the FPS to 30 on the S, the CPU will have double the work time so that's equivalent to doubling its' power. So yeah, the S CPU will be a limiting factor but at least they can enjoy double the CPU power over Halo 5 as long as they don't mind leaving the XBO players behind regarding FPS. I mean, it's a cross-gen game, I think it's cool to have a 30FPS version on the 7 years old console.
Oh man, it's so hard to keep up with this thread during E3 AND AMD's full Navi reveal :)

I'm not sure if it was brought up, but I'm pretty sure both Flight Simulator and Halo Infinite used ray tracing in their trailers.
* A very noisy reflection on a curvy surface:


* A very noisy reflection of the chief on the wall:


In Halo it's on a flat surface but it's not SSR, it's very noisy (take a look at the 4K trailer in youtube, you can see the time-stamp in the image and see how noisy it is when the camera moves) and doesn't show occlusion artifacts even though the character is occluding most of the Chief.
Dictator - I see that we both caught that little reflection that might be RT. What do you say about the reflections in Flight Simulator? They have noise patterns that look very RT.
 
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BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,228
Random reads aren't done at 3GB/s, though, although it is the area where their difference is felt most. Look through any SSD reviews posted recently (SATA or NVMe doesn't matter).
Either way, we get an absolutely tremendous increase in the speed at which data can be loaded into RAM, so even if you can't swap out everything in RAM in 3-6 seconds, you can still do it many, many times faster than a HDD.

Also I'm not a game developer, but having "free" RAM doesn't make sense. You want to have stuff in RAM as much as feasibly possible as it's astronimcally faster than loading it from an SSD in to empty RAM to then process.
Except nobody was talking about 'free RAM'. I'm was talking about less RAM being used for future frames, which would then be freed up for use on the frame currently being drawn, resulting in massively improved detail. I thought that was obvious.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,448
Florida
The shadow artifacts are actually very common shadow map artifacts so I'm 99% sure that Halo Infinite's shadows are not using RT. I'm also not seeing any evidence for GI or AO using RT. Reflections are our last resort :)


If the drop the FPS to 30 on the S, the CPU will have double the work time so that's equivalent to doubling its' power. So yeah, the S CPU will be a limiting factor but at least they can enjoy double the CPU power over Halo 5 as long as they don't mind leaving the XBO players behind regarding FPS. I mean, it's a cross-gen game, I think it's cool to have a 30FPS version on the 7 years old console.

Dictator - I see that we both caught that little reflection that might be RT. What do you say about the reflections in Flight Simulator? They have noise patterns that look very RT.
What do you make of the red and green lights reflecting on Chief's armor?