Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT5| - It's in RDNA

What do you think could be the memory setup of your preferred console, or one of the new consoles?


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console lover

Member
Feb 19, 2018
5,252
I'm sorry guys, but it's been what....48 hours since th conference? There is no way in hell we wouldn't know by now if it was ray tracing, hell multiple people from upper management have been interviewed and not once did they say anything. It's not ray tracing. The fact that it's a debate as to whether it is....means that is either isn't or that it's such a comprised console form of it that it's not even worth it.
 

Terbinator

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,053
Except nobody was talking about 'free RAM'. I'm was talking about less RAM being used for future frames, which would then be freed up for use on the frame currently being drawn, resulting in massively improved detail. I thought that was obvious.
Okay - free'd up RAM due to it requring less space - because it's quick to access the SSD versus a normal HDD? I don't even think this make sense and I can't believe anyone would build a game around that approach.

If you take the X1X for exmaple, it's RAM pool is running at 326GB/s at all time. Having to go back to an SSD for 'stuff' is going to be pinging off at 1% of that speed in a best case scenario.

Any how, maybe I don't understand you or you don't understand me. But the tl;dr: of the SSD in the new consoles isn't going to have any impact on the consoles RAM.
 

Flutter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,606
I'm sorry guys, but it's been what....48 hours since th conference? There is no way in hell we wouldn't know by now if it was ray tracing, hell multiple people from upper management have been interviewed and not once did they say anything. It's not ray tracing. The fact that it's a debate as to whether it is....means that is either isn't or that it's such a comprised console form of it that it's not even worth it.
I'll be surprised if we get anything close to RTX quality RT.
 
Jun 4, 2019
474
We spoke about this earlier this week and I still wonder if Lockhart for Xbox is not happening anymore, or was never happening to begin with and that it was a bullshit rumor. Or maybe they keep it for next E3. Personally I really would be very fine if it doesn't happen at all.

But that brings me to this, what happens to the "no one gets left behind" that Phil said? No more generations? I am 100% for generations myself. Unless they can prove us all wrong, and that it CAN work.
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
463
Israel
I'm sorry guys, but it's been what....48 hours since th conference? There is no way in hell we wouldn't know by now if it was ray tracing, hell multiple people from upper management have been interviewed and not once did they say anything. It's not ray tracing. The fact that it's a debate as to whether it is....means that is either isn't or that it's such a comprised console form of it that it's not even worth it.
I'm 99% sure that Flight Simulator has RT reflections because of the noise in one of the shots and that wasn't discussed in interviews yet either. But yeah, there is a low chance of Halo using it without the PR department going wild on it.

4:47 in when the alarm goes off

I have to stop watching this trailer. I can only get so erect. LOL
That actually makes me think it's a reflection map and not RT. The camera does a 180 right a few seconds later and I can't spot the source of light that reflects on the Chief's visor. I mean there are red lights in the scene, but they don't seem to correlate to the lights in his visor. Funny thing is, the E3 2018 trailer did show reflection on the visor that was of an object outside of the frame, a warthog, but who knows how they had achieved that.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,413
Florida
I'm 99% sure that Flight Simulator has RT reflections because of the noise in one of the shots and that wasn't discussed in interviews yet either. But yeah, there is a low chance of Halo using it without the PR department going wild on it.


That actually makes me think it's a reflection map and not RT. The camera does a 180 right after that shot and I can't spot the source of lights that reflect on the Chief's visor. I mean there are red lights in the scene, but they don't seem to correlate to the lights in his visor.
Gotcha, thanks. Either way the lighting looks amazing in this trailer.

Wait, I see the visor reflecting the red guide light from the floor on his visor. That's the source.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,232
So did E3 make us more hyped up about Next Gen or did it throw in a ton of fuel to this thread and lit it up?
For me the 2 main takeaways is that PS5 seems to go for the high end/$499 build (if those rumblings are true, which I think they are) and that MS is not all-in o the 2 SKU's strategy at this point in time.

Also that it was a week E3 in term of reveals, which means next one we'll be great.

At the momenr our hope is a dev-kit reveal from a reputable outlet
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
463
Israel
Gotcha, thanks. Either way the lighting looks amazing in this trailer.

Wait, I see the visor reflecting the red guide light from the floor on his visor. That's the source.
The lighting looks great, I really like how the smoke particles take light. But I don't think we can deduce RT from that visor, actually I'm pretty sure it's not after seeing the DF video that showed SSR artifacts in the last scene (5:40). But if the next Xbox really does have RT cores, I'm guessing 343 will incorporate RT in the Slip-Space engine.
 

Flutter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,606
I'm 99% sure that Flight Simulator has RT reflections because of the noise in one of the shots and that wasn't discussed in interviews yet either. But yeah, there is a low chance of Halo using it without the PR department going wild on it.


That actually makes me think it's a reflection map and not RT. The camera does a 180 right a few seconds later and I can't spot the source of light that reflects on the Chief's visor. I mean there are red lights in the scene, but they don't seem to correlate to the lights in his visor. Funny thing is, the E3 2018 trailer did show reflection on the visor that was of an object outside of the frame, a warthog, but who knows how they had achieved that.
thought the light came from the corridor before the hangar bay.

edit: scratch that, there's the red emergency light seen at 0:40 in the hangar.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
940
St Kitts
In a best case scenario, yes. Tha'ts not how it works when it comes to randomly reading files from the drive (SSD or otherwise) in real life though.

I haven't ready the Wired article so not up to speed on Cerny sauce, so could well be wrong. But for me reading how people are intepreting what the SSD means for these consoles (and don't get me wrong, it is good) is on-par with teraflop wars.
Having an SSD as fat as what we are about to get now is really that big a deal.

Lets take the PS4 with its 5GB of RAM for instance. After taking out the RAMneeded for all the Frame critical assets and the actual frame buffer itself; they may have used up only like 60% of all that 5GB. They could want to use more sure, but they also have to keep a lot of "non-frame critical" data in RAM too, just in case they need to pull that in when the player turns and starts walking towards that house with a door that needs to be picked. Or gets into the stairwell to get to another floor. Or wait for that massive gate to slowly open.

These are all thing that will probably take less than 4 seconds, and how much data can you really move from an HDD with speeds of around60Mb/s-100MB/s in 5 secs. Oh and don't forget to ad the time it will take to actually seek out that data to begin with. So what they do is that they preload chunks of data that the game "may" need, and stream in as much as they can. As games get bigger, ad the RAM size gets bigger, then so does the size of that data cache in RAM.

A fast SSD means you don't need that data Cache.....or at least not as much as you would have probably needed. This isn't about best-case scenarios anymore, it will become the norm and it will be as big a deal in game development as was the shift from cartridges to discs. Its kinda like we have gone full circle and back to cartridges again.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,184
So did E3 make us more hyped up about Next Gen or did it throw in a ton of fuel to this thread and lit it up?
Definitely not hyped. MS dropped the ball with their reveal and AMD disappointed with its terribly overpriced mediocre GPUs. No ray tracing in a $449 GPU in 2019? really?

thankfully, some folks did some estimates on the jaguar SoC and we are looking at a massive die which gives me hope we will see a 10-11+ tflops next gen GPU so i am content for now.

everyone seems to be going back to being conservative with their predictions. Anex has betrayed Team HBM and the consensus seems to be 10 tflops but im in the 12.9 tflops camp again and happy to be here after that god awful AMD conference.

I just randomly saw that on Twitter. Anybody knows what this means?

it just means that Brad Sams and co. were just MS pawns in their overall marketing agenda. I wouldnt call them astroturfers because Brad at least runs a credible website and youtube channel, but he was definitely spoonfed info to test the waters. I dont think there is anything too sinister in that. I always thought it was strange how Brad was the first one to say that MS were now trying to match Sony's system instead of being the power leader. To me, it always felt like a controlled leak to keep expectations in check. The 4x multiplyer leak and no mention of numbers was another controlled leak to manage expectations.

I dont care either way. We got some good info due to those leaks and it gives Brad a lot more credibility going forward. We should've trusted him a lot more.
 
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DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
463
Israel
thought the light came from the corridor before the hangar bay.
That corridor and the hanger bay do have red lights, but it's hard to correlate a specific light to that reflection so it's impossible to know. If it was a cubic map, it would have red lights for sure because there are red lights everywhere in that ship so as long as we don't successfully see something out of the frame that reflects on the visor, we can't tell for sure. But the ending scene really does make a good case for it using SSR because of the occlusion artifacts.
 

Flutter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,606
That corridor and the hanger bay do have red lights, but it's hard to correlate a specific light to that reflection so it's impossible to know. If it was a cubic map, it would have red lights for sure because there are red lights everywhere in that ship so as long as we don't successfully see something out of the frame that reflects on the visor, we can't tell for sure. But the ending scene really does make a good case for it using SSR because of the occlusion artifacts.
I guess we need to wait for more info then.
 

Segafreak

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,826
I think the biggest problem with the PS3 was that the 512MB of RAM was split into two pools of 256MB so you pretty much only had access to half the ram xbox 360 games had.

Would the SSDs help with mitigate lower RAM? IIRC, MS said they have something like 4 Gbps but Sony's patents were for 8Gbps. That should help them fill up the RAM extremely fast. Of course next gen games will look a lot better than current gen games and will use mega textures and a lot more NPC models. Would 8GB be enough for realistic looking open world games that look like this AND have NPCs on screen at once?





What if the SSD is so fast enough that the OS doesn't have to take up space in the rams anymoe? Meaning we get full whatever rams they have next gen dedicated to games!
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,413
Florida
That corridor and the hanger bay do have red lights, but it's hard to correlate a specific light to that reflection so it's impossible to know. If it was a cubic map, it would have red lights for sure because there are red lights everywhere in that ship so as long as we don't successfully see something out of the frame that reflects on the visor, we can't tell for sure. But the ending scene really does make a good case for it using SSR because of the occlusion artifacts.
Right on cue Digital Foundry has a great video out breaking the trailer down.
 

BradGrenz

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
861
The problem is, that HBM2 + DDR4 has not the same bandwidith.

24GB GDDR6 RAM 14Gbps on a 386bit bus has a total bandwith of 672GB/s
HBM2 in a 2 stack (2*4GB) configuration at 1000MHz on a 2048 bit bus has a total bandwidth of 512GB/s
So you still need 160GB/s bandwidth with your DDR4 RAM solution to match GDDR6
And that would be a 256 bit interface with 5000MHz DDR4 RAM (8* 2GB)

HBM makes sense. HBM in combination with DDR4 does not make sense, unless you're okay with less total bandwidth.
And only in that case would you save any significant power savings over GDDR6 only.
But that's the point. You can take a marginal hit in total bandwidth if there are other benefits, like less bandwidth contention from the CPU, lower overall power, etc. And technically speaking, you are ignoring scenarios where the HBM could offer up to 1TB/s bandwidth with very little additional power use, in which case the GDDR6 would be at a significant bandwidth disadvantage. Not saying that is likely in the PS5, but your claim that you can't get the same bandwidth at the same power cost is just false.

Gonzalo was said to have Navi 10 lite.
So 36-40 CU with ~1800 mhz.

That being said the addition of RT and the rumors of high tfs in PS5 makes me doubt Gonzalo was PS5.
We've never confirmed anything about "Navi Lite", let alone any details on how many CUs that Gonzalo would have.

I just randomly saw that on Twitter. Anybody knows what this means?

Just speculation, but I don't doubt it.
 

Flutter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,606
What strike me as odd was even Penello thought the PS5 would be around 8tf, the same as the most famous leak so far about the next gen Xbox.

It could be a concidence, or it could have been the specs MS believed the PS5 would be.
 

Lagspike_exe

Member
Dec 15, 2017
730
Tbf they're probably referring to the 2 SKU's strategy? I haven't heard the podcast though
That was total failure as well. They made an exceedingly bad prediction about what Sony is planning to do with PS5.
If all those rumors are true of course but the fact that it doesn't seem they'll launch Lockhart and that the sandwich strategy is dead could imply that the rumors were true, it's just that they've changed their mind.
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
463
Israel
Having an SSD as fat as what we are about to get now is really that big a deal.

Lets take the PS4 with its 5GB of RAM for instance. After taking out the RAMneeded for all the Frame critical assets and the actual frame buffer itself; they may have used up only like 60% of all that 5GB. They could want to use more sure, but they also have to keep a lot of "non-frame critical" data in RAM too, just in case they need to pull that in when the player turns and starts walking towards that house with a door that needs to be picked. Or gets into the stairwell to get to another floor. Or wait for that massive gate to slowly open.

These are all thing that will probably take less than 4 seconds, and how much data can you really move from an HDD with speeds of around60Mb/s-100MB/s in 5 secs. Oh and don't forget to ad the time it will take to actually seek out that data to begin with. So what they do is that they preload chunks of data that the game "may" need, and stream in as much as they can. As games get bigger, ad the RAM size gets bigger, then so does the size of that data cache in RAM.

A fast SSD means you don't need that data Cache.....or at least not as much as you would have probably needed. This isn't about best-case scenarios anymore, it will become the norm and it will be as big a deal in game development as was the shift from cartridges to discs. Its kinda like we have gone full circle and back to cartridges again.
We don't really know how much "keep it in memory just in case" really takes. For instance, Spider-man loads most of the stuff around him in real time from the HDD. It starts by streaming from the HDD a 20MB tile for every 128 meters (it's actually 3 tiles so it's 60MB) while the rest slowly streams from the HDD too in order to increase quality (for instance higher mip textures or storefronts). So what will an SSD do for Spider-man 2? They can make each tile data a lot bigger for a denser scene or they can make Spider-man go faster for game-play purposes, or they can strike a balance between them. But memory wise? I'm not sure that the Spider-man presentation showed us any evidence for big savings in memory space if they had faster HDD. It will remove duplications which take more than 10GB on the BR disk (I'm actually not sure about that because SSD read sequential data x10 faster) but I'm not sure it will be a big memory saver. It will save memory space, that's for sure, but I really can't tell how much.

I think that the most important fact is that it can feed the RAM really fast, that's the game changer. No more loading FMVs or long corridors :)
 

KennyX

Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,473
And technically speaking, you are ignoring scenarios where the HBM could offer up to 1TB/s bandwidth with very little additional power use, in which case the GDDR6 would be at a significant bandwidth disadvantage.
No I don't
That would be a perfectly viable option.
I only dismiss this stupid HBM + a lot of DDR4 RAM rumor (to save power and use that for higher GPU clocks).

4*4GB HBM stacks (700MHz because of yield and maybe some truth to cheap bad chips and a great deal for Sony) at 716GB/s would a great solution.
But then again, that would be super expensive.
 

Noctis114

Member
Jan 25, 2019
666
For me the 2 main takeaways is that PS5 seems to go for the high end/$499 build (if those rumblings are true, which I think they are) and that MS is not all-in o the 2 SKU's strategy at this point in time.

Also that it was a week E3 in term of reveals, which means next one we'll be great.

At the momenr our hope is a dev-kit reveal from a reputable outlet
Yeah too many devs were holding their cards tight, E3 2020 will be the big one

We should be hyped up. Compare to where we were last year. We have now confirmed SSDs, hardware RT, brand new GPU architecture, and Zen 2 delivering on hopes and dreams.
Indeed, ignoring the tflop debacle every corner of the next gen consoles has seen a significant upgrade over it's predecessor.

Definitely not hyped. MS dropped the ball with their reveal and AMD disappointed with its terribly overpriced mediocre GPUs. No ray tracing in a $449 GPU in 2019? really?

thankfully, some folks did some estimates on the jaguar SoC and we are looking at a massive die which gives me hope we will see a 10-11+ tflops next gen GPU so i am content for now.

everyone seems to be going back to being conservative with their predictions. Anex has betrayed Team HBM and the consensus seems to be 10 tflops but im in the 12.9 tflops camp again and happy to be here after that god awful AMD conference.
I might go conservative on my prediction too, roughly 9 - 10 TF

According to this thread over this week, definetly shown lol.
 

Fafalada

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,132
In a best case scenario, yes.
Best case scenario would be mapping all your assets into virtual-memory (megatexture style). At 4k, GPU needs well under 100MB of unique reads per frame (for assets, and that's assuming extreme density of source assets to begin with), which can be entirely replaced once per frame at peak SSD speeds @ say 30fps.

And if we're going crazy with unique data, you also get benefit of good temporal coherency, so we'd have much less pressure on new data every frame (and not much randomness of access at all) unless your game-mechanic is based around teleporting in the world. Reducing uniqueness leads to more randomness of access but also less 'cache misses' and less reads overall.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,184
It didn't work this time. The performance was overhyped for what seems to be a PS5 equivalent.
Well, to be fair thats all on Phil, no? He was the one who set that narrative at the last E3.

They have since been trying to manage expectations since March of this year. I remember Brad Sams making a video saying that they are now trying to match Sony in performance with the Anaconda.

Panello thinking it was 8 tflops was odd because he was with MS until last year. Its entirely possible that Sony was going with the cheapest Navi GPU revealed yesterday for a Holiday 2019 released and then changed their strategy for whatever reason.


This was the first time we heard that MS was going to match Sony on power and performance with their Anaconda console.

I want to go back and go through this thread back when Cerny revealed the PS5. IIRC, a lot of MS insiders came out at the time and said the opposite to what Brad was saying here. I wonder if they had outdated information.
 

BradGrenz

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
861
No I don't
That would be a perfectly viable option.
I only dismiss this stupid HBM + a lot of DDR4 RAM rumor (to save power and use that for higher GPU clocks).

4*4GB HBM stacks (700MHz because of yield and maybe some truth to cheap bad chips and a great deal for Sony) at 716GB/s would a great solution.
But then again, that would be super expensive.
They could be 1GB or 2GB stacks, combined with a DDR4 bus, though. The possibilities are more flexible than you suggest.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,232
Well, to be fair thats all on Phil, no? He was the one who set that narrative at the last E3.

They have since been trying to manage expectations since March of this year. I remember Brad Sams making a video saying that they are now trying to match Sony in performance with the Anaconda.

Panello thinking it was 8 tflops was odd because he was with MS until last year. Its entirely possible that Sony was going with the cheapest Navi GPU revealed yesterday for a Holiday 2019 released and then changed their strategy for whatever reason.


This was the first time we heard that MS was going to match Sony on power and performance with their Anaconda console.

I want to go back and go through this thread back when Cerny revealed the PS5. IIRC, a lot of MS insiders came out at the time and said the opposite to what Brad was saying here. I wonder if they had outdated information.
True, he lays down the strategy right there: lockhart to be much cheaper , and Anaconda to match PS5 in price and specs, thus suggesting they knew it would be $499.

But later he retracted, didn't he? Or said something to the effect that Anaconda was still aiming to be the performance leader, to which some interpreted more expensive and significantly superior, but in hindsight meant same price and similarly specced, but aiming to be ahead, even if by just a smidge (which is obvious, PS5 is trying to do the same)
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
424
That was total failure as well. They made an exceedingly bad prediction about what Sony is planning to do with PS5.
If all those rumors are true of course but the fact that it doesn't seem they'll launch Lockhart and that the sandwich strategy is dead could imply that the rumors were true, it's just that they've changed their mind.
what if:

When they made the prediction, it was probably accurate. If up until mid 2018 sony was planning on a 2019 release, MS would've launched a year later with newer hardware ala oneX vs PRO and it would've paid off. Unfortunately AMD announced NAVI is not on schedule, plans fell through and both had to rethink their plans.
 

console lover

Member
Feb 19, 2018
5,252
What strike me as odd was even Penello thought the PS5 would be around 8tf, the same as the most famous leak so far about the next gen Xbox.

It could be a concidence, or it could have been the specs MS believed the PS5 would be.
This would be the second generation in a row where ms has underestimated the power Sony was aiming for
what if:

When they made the prediction, it was probably accurate. If up until mid 2018 sony was planning on a 2019 release, MS would've launched a year later with newer hardware ala oneX vs PRO and it would've paid off. Unfortunately AMD announced NAVI is not on schedule, plans fell through and both had to rethink their plans.
only reason I doubt this is because it would insinuate that Sony basically took a 2019 design....and in 18 months was able to repurpose that design into something very similiar or above an Xbox 2. That's just being straight up out engineered at that point