Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT5| - It's in RDNA

[BradGrenz]

The problem is, that HBM2 + DDR4 has not the same bandwidith.

24GB GDDR6 RAM 14Gbps on a 386bit bus has a total bandwith of 672GB/s
HBM2 in a 2 stack (2*4GB) configuration at 1000MHz on a 2048 bit bus has a total bandwidth of 512GB/s
So you still need 160GB/s bandwidth with your DDR4 RAM solution to match GDDR6
And that would be a 256 bit interface with 5000MHz DDR4 RAM (8* 2GB)

HBM makes sense. HBM in combination with DDR4 does not make sense, unless you're okay with less total bandwidth.
And only in that case would you save any significant power savings over GDDR6 only.

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But that's the point. You can take a marginal hit in total bandwidth if there are other benefits, like less bandwidth contention from the CPU, lower overall power, etc. And technically speaking, you are ignoring scenarios where the HBM could offer up to 1TB/s bandwidth with very little additional power use, in which case the GDDR6 would be at a significant bandwidth disadvantage. Not saying that is likely in the PS5, but your claim that you can't get the same bandwidth at the same power cost is just false.

Gonzalo was said to have Navi 10 lite.
So 36-40 CU with ~1800 mhz.

That being said the addition of RT and the rumors of high tfs in PS5 makes me doubt Gonzalo was PS5.

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We've never confirmed anything about "Navi Lite", let alone any details on how many CUs that Gonzalo would have.

I just randomly saw that on Twitter. Anybody knows what this means?

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Just speculation, but I don't doubt it.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Controlled leak. Given to journalists to create a narrative.

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It didn't work this time. The performance was overhyped for what seems to be a PS5 equivalent.

 

[Deleted member 1589]

What strike me as odd was even Penello thought the PS5 would be around 8tf, the same as the most famous leak so far about the next gen Xbox.

It could be a concidence, or it could have been the specs MS believed the PS5 would be.

 

[HesienbergSHO]

What strike me as odd was even Penello thought the PS5 would be around 8tf, the same as the most famous leak so far about the next gen Xbox.

It could be a concidence, or it could have been the specs MS believed the PS5 would be.

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Just wonder if thats what they thought if they believed the PS5 would launch this holiday.

 

[Thorrgal]

It didn't work this time. The performance was overhyped for what seems to be a PS5 equivalent.

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Tbf they're probably referring to the 2 SKU's strategy? I haven't heard the podcast though

 

[MatthewTrujillo]

If you'd like to listen to the speculation

I just randomly saw that on Twitter. Anybody knows what this means?

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it starts around the 6:40 mark of the podcast.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Tbf they're probably referring to the 2 SKU's strategy? I haven't heard the podcast though

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That was total failure as well. They made an exceedingly bad prediction about what Sony is planning to do with PS5.
If all those rumors are true of course but the fact that it doesn't seem they'll launch Lockhart and that the sandwich strategy is dead could imply that the rumors were true, it's just that they've changed their mind.

 

[Apathy]

I just randomly saw that on Twitter. Anybody knows what this means?

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Wellduh.jpg

Certain sites and people are basically mouthpieces for MS and should be looked at as being propaganda.

 

[DrKeo]

Having an SSD as fat as what we are about to get now is really that big a deal.

Lets take the PS4 with its 5GB of RAM for instance. After taking out the RAMneeded for all the Frame critical assets and the actual frame buffer itself; they may have used up only like 60% of all that 5GB. They could want to use more sure, but they also have to keep a lot of "non-frame critical" data in RAM too, just in case they need to pull that in when the player turns and starts walking towards that house with a door that needs to be picked. Or gets into the stairwell to get to another floor. Or wait for that massive gate to slowly open.

These are all thing that will probably take less than 4 seconds, and how much data can you really move from an HDD with speeds of around60Mb/s-100MB/s in 5 secs. Oh and don't forget to ad the time it will take to actually seek out that data to begin with. So what they do is that they preload chunks of data that the game "may" need, and stream in as much as they can. As games get bigger, ad the RAM size gets bigger, then so does the size of that data cache in RAM.

A fast SSD means you don't need that data Cache.....or at least not as much as you would have probably needed. This isn't about best-case scenarios anymore, it will become the norm and it will be as big a deal in game development as was the shift from cartridges to discs. Its kinda like we have gone full circle and back to cartridges again.

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We don't really know how much "keep it in memory just in case" really takes. For instance, Spider-man loads most of the stuff around him in real time from the HDD. It starts by streaming from the HDD a 20MB tile for every 128 meters (it's actually 3 tiles so it's 60MB) while the rest slowly streams from the HDD too in order to increase quality (for instance higher mip textures or storefronts). So what will an SSD do for Spider-man 2? They can make each tile data a lot bigger for a denser scene or they can make Spider-man go faster for game-play purposes, or they can strike a balance between them. But memory wise? I'm not sure that the Spider-man presentation showed us any evidence for big savings in memory space if they had faster HDD. It will remove duplications which take more than 10GB on the BR disk (I'm actually not sure about that because SSD read sequential data x10 faster) but I'm not sure it will be a big memory saver. It will save memory space, that's for sure, but I really can't tell how much.

I think that the most important fact is that it can feed the RAM really fast, that's the game changer. No more loading FMVs or long corridors :)

 

[Deleted member 49804]

And technically speaking, you are ignoring scenarios where the HBM could offer up to 1TB/s bandwidth with very little additional power use, in which case the GDDR6 would be at a significant bandwidth disadvantage.

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No I don't
That would be a perfectly viable option.
I only dismiss this stupid HBM + a lot of DDR4 RAM rumor (to save power and use that for higher GPU clocks).

4*4GB HBM stacks (700MHz because of yield and maybe some truth to cheap bad chips and a great deal for Sony) at 716GB/s would a great solution.
But then again, that would be super expensive.

 

[Sekiro]

For me the 2 main takeaways is that PS5 seems to go for the high end/$499 build (if those rumblings are true, which I think they are) and that MS is not all-in o the 2 SKU's strategy at this point in time.

Also that it was a week E3 in term of reveals, which means next one we'll be great.

At the momenr our hope is a dev-kit reveal from a reputable outlet

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Yeah too many devs were holding their cards tight, E3 2020 will be the big one

We should be hyped up. Compare to where we were last year. We have now confirmed SSDs, hardware RT, brand new GPU architecture, and Zen 2 delivering on hopes and dreams.

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Indeed, ignoring the tflop debacle every corner of the next gen consoles has seen a significant upgrade over it's predecessor.

Definitely not hyped. MS dropped the ball with their reveal and AMD disappointed with its terribly overpriced mediocre GPUs. No ray tracing in a $449 GPU in 2019? really?

thankfully, some folks did some estimates on the jaguar SoC and we are looking at a massive die which gives me hope we will see a 10-11+ tflops next gen GPU so i am content for now.

everyone seems to be going back to being conservative with their predictions. Anex has betrayed Team HBM and the consensus seems to be 10 tflops but im in the 12.9 tflops camp again and happy to be here after that god awful AMD conference.

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I might go conservative on my prediction too, roughly 9 - 10 TF

Why not both?

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According to this thread over this week, definetly shown lol.

 

[Fafalada]

In a best case scenario, yes.

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Best case scenario would be mapping all your assets into virtual-memory (megatexture style). At 4k, GPU needs well under 100MB of unique reads per frame (for assets, and that's assuming extreme density of source assets to begin with), which can be entirely replaced once per frame at peak SSD speeds @ say 30fps.

And if we're going crazy with unique data, you also get benefit of good temporal coherency, so we'd have much less pressure on new data every frame (and not much randomness of access at all) unless your game-mechanic is based around teleporting in the world. Reducing uniqueness leads to more randomness of access but also less 'cache misses' and less reads overall.

 

[kostacurtas]

The controlled leaks is the reason why some insiders are basically influencers in my eyes.

Just my opinion.

 

[AegonSnake]

It didn't work this time. The performance was overhyped for what seems to be a PS5 equivalent.

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Well, to be fair thats all on Phil, no? He was the one who set that narrative at the last E3.

They have since been trying to manage expectations since March of this year. I remember Brad Sams making a video saying that they are now trying to match Sony in performance with the Anaconda.

Panello thinking it was 8 tflops was odd because he was with MS until last year. Its entirely possible that Sony was going with the cheapest Navi GPU revealed yesterday for a Holiday 2019 released and then changed their strategy for whatever reason.



This was the first time we heard that MS was going to match Sony on power and performance with their Anaconda console.

I want to go back and go through this thread back when Cerny revealed the PS5. IIRC, a lot of MS insiders came out at the time and said the opposite to what Brad was saying here. I wonder if they had outdated information.

 

[Sir Tsunami]

The controlled leaks is the reason why some insiders are basically influencers in my eyes.

Just my opinion.

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Concur. The more we accept that the use of insiders as mouthpieces to influence narratives and perspective, the less likely people are to be bamboozled or feel disappointed when reality doesn't line up with what the cool poster said

 

[BradGrenz]

No I don't
That would be a perfectly viable option.
I only dismiss this stupid HBM + a lot of DDR4 RAM rumor (to save power and use that for higher GPU clocks).

4*4GB HBM stacks (700MHz because of yield and maybe some truth to cheap bad chips and a great deal for Sony) at 716GB/s would a great solution.
But then again, that would be super expensive.

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They could be 1GB or 2GB stacks, combined with a DDR4 bus, though. The possibilities are more flexible than you suggest.

 

[Thorrgal]

Well, to be fair thats all on Phil, no? He was the one who set that narrative at the last E3.

They have since been trying to manage expectations since March of this year. I remember Brad Sams making a video saying that they are now trying to match Sony in performance with the Anaconda.

Panello thinking it was 8 tflops was odd because he was with MS until last year. Its entirely possible that Sony was going with the cheapest Navi GPU revealed yesterday for a Holiday 2019 released and then changed their strategy for whatever reason.



This was the first time we heard that MS was going to match Sony on power and performance with their Anaconda console.

I want to go back and go through this thread back when Cerny revealed the PS5. IIRC, a lot of MS insiders came out at the time and said the opposite to what Brad was saying here. I wonder if they had outdated information.

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True, he lays down the strategy right there: lockhart to be much cheaper , and Anaconda to match PS5 in price and specs, thus suggesting they knew it would be $499.

But later he retracted, didn't he? Or said something to the effect that Anaconda was still aiming to be the performance leader, to which some interpreted more expensive and significantly superior, but in hindsight meant same price and similarly specced, but aiming to be ahead, even if by just a smidge (which is obvious, PS5 is trying to do the same)

 

[disco_potato]

That was total failure as well. They made an exceedingly bad prediction about what Sony is planning to do with PS5.
If all those rumors are true of course but the fact that it doesn't seem they'll launch Lockhart and that the sandwich strategy is dead could imply that the rumors were true, it's just that they've changed their mind.

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what if:

When they made the prediction, it was probably accurate. If up until mid 2018 sony was planning on a 2019 release, MS would've launched a year later with newer hardware ala oneX vs PRO and it would've paid off. Unfortunately AMD announced NAVI is not on schedule, plans fell through and both had to rethink their plans.

 

[Deleted member 40133]

What strike me as odd was even Penello thought the PS5 would be around 8tf, the same as the most famous leak so far about the next gen Xbox.

It could be a concidence, or it could have been the specs MS believed the PS5 would be.

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This would be the second generation in a row where ms has underestimated the power Sony was aiming for

what if:

When they made the prediction, it was probably accurate. If up until mid 2018 sony was planning on a 2019 release, MS would've launched a year later with newer hardware ala oneX vs PRO and it would've paid off. Unfortunately AMD announced NAVI is not on schedule, plans fell through and both had to rethink their plans.

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only reason I doubt this is because it would insinuate that Sony basically took a 2019 design....and in 18 months was able to repurpose that design into something very similiar or above an Xbox 2. That's just being straight up out engineered at that point

 

[dotyoureyes]

Controlled leak. Given to journalists to create a narrative.

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Not surprising typical MS lol.

 

[dotyoureyes]

The controlled leaks is the reason why some insiders are basically influencers in my eyes.

Just my opinion.

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Yep this is a sad reality for some. People always fall for it. Always be cautious with leaks/rumours for this reason.

 

[AegonSnake]

BTW, this was the controlled leak i think. They got a lot of things right and they assumed the PS5 was going to be 8 tflops. Is this before or after the first gonzolo leak? This was in January. I wonder if MS is responsible for leaking 8 tflops lol.

Next Xbox mysterious leak

24305 views on Imgur: The magic of the Internet

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Look at all those crossgen games. i think they were trying to tell us something. ;p

 

[dotyoureyes]

I refuse to believe MS thought Sony was launching in 2019...they cannot be that dumb.

 

[Deleted member 40133]

I refuse to believe MS thought Sony was launching in 2019...they cannot be that dumb.

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I don't know what would be dumber. Ms believing Sony would release in 2019 or Sony actually originally planning to launch in 2019

 

[DukeBlueBall]

BTW, this was the controlled leak i think. They got a lot of things right and they assumed the PS5 was going to be 8 tflops. Is this before or after the first gonzolo leak? This was in January. I wonder if MS is responsible for leaking 8 tflops lol.

Next Xbox mysterious leak

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Look at all those crossgen games. i think they were trying to tell us something. ;p

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This is a post made Albert Penello first day after leaving Microsoft.

 

[Deleted member 40133]

This is a post made Albert Penello first day after leaving Microsoft.

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I refuse to believe that's a legit ms controlled leak. 12 gigs of ram, even if it were 2019? If it were real ms must just have the lowest opinion of Sony as a hardware manufacturer

 

[Brown Intruder]

I refuse to believe MS thought Sony was launching in 2019...they cannot be that dumb.

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I don't believe it either.

With the way that the ps4 is selling.

Also, a year head start for Sony would usher in another PS2 gen. The snowball effect would already have started before Microsoft had even got their console on the shelves. And they both know it.

Sony would have no need to worry too much about the specs. The brand plus the head start would do the rest. If they had planned this year, they would have launched.

As many people point out time and time again on here, having the most powerful console does not guarantee the win.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

I refuse to believe that's a legit ms controlled leak. 12 gigs of ram, even if it were 2019? If it were real ms must just have the lowest opinion of Sony as a hardware manufacturer

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SSD doubles as ram cache so you don't need much ram. Not unreasonable if there is 2-4GB of DDR4 for OS.

All the specs are reasonable given the price points.

The MS AI is completely made up.

 

[Thorrgal]

I refuse to believe that's a legit ms controlled leak. 12 gigs of ram, even if it were 2019? If it were real ms must just have the lowest opinion of Sony as a hardware manufacturer

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It also calls the Lockhart the streaming box.

I don't think that leak is legit

 

[Deleted member 4976]

That says Navi @ 12tf. That's not controlled nor real.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I don't know what would be dumber. Ms believing Sony would release in 2019 or Sony actually originally planning to launch in 2019

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I think both are true.

Sony's decision was more foolish.

 

[Deleted member 40133]

I think both are true.

Sony's decision was more foolish.

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Then they legit have a horshoe stuck up their asses that they were basically forced through delays out of their control to release a console at the same time as MS within the same envelope of power. With the added benefit that MS went ALL in on being the most powerful to the point that if they're even negligibly even people will lose with their minds. With an added possible benefit of getting MS to shitcan a lower end sku which is just wasted r&d money

 

[formasymphonic]

I refuse to believe MS thought Sony was launching in 2019...they cannot be that dumb.

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I'm sticking with my theory that they maybe they thought Sony would want to launch in 2019 to go with the 25th Playstation anniversary.

 

[Chamber]

I remember Digital Foundry mentioned hearing a rumor that PS5 would use Jaguar again. I wonder if MS heard the same thing and that was the basis of their confidence regarding hardware. 🤔

This would be the second generation in a row where ms has underestimated the power Sony was aiming for
only reason I doubt this is because it would insinuate that Sony basically took a 2019 design....and in 18 months was able to repurpose that design into something very similiar or above an Xbox 2. That's just being straight up out engineered at that point

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[giblet]

Guys.
SSD's will never make up for RAM, ever. Never ever, ever ever. They have crap latency and lower speeds.

Smart developers know this, which is why they use memory-mapping to disk and page swapping.

SSDs are a game changer in this regard.

Remember RAGE? If it had SSDs, and the hardware acceleration we have today, it would be glorious.

It is not, however, a replacement for RAM.

But, lets just say we can access SVO (or BVH) on SSDs very effectively with memory mapped files.

 

[Sekiro]

Phil Spencer's gonna be interviewed by Giant Bomb in less than 2 hours

Link to it

 

[QuiteSomething]

BTW, this was the controlled leak i think. They got a lot of things right and they assumed the PS5 was going to be 8 tflops. Is this before or after the first gonzolo leak? This was in January. I wonder if MS is responsible for leaking 8 tflops lol.

Next Xbox mysterious leak

24305 views on Imgur: The magic of the Internet

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Look at all those crossgen games. i think they were trying to tell us something. ;p

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This rumor is false. Those studio acquisition list makes 0 sense
And the hardware numbers dont add up on the Navi side + Directx RT

All this talk about MS cancelling Lockhart and them thinking Sony gonna go 2019 is kinda far fetched Imo. I dont think they are that reactionary. MS probably got the strategy decided couple years ago and they are working towards it no matter whats Sony doing.

Remind me - info about 2019 plans from Sony originated from who? Matt? Benji?

 

[Deleted member 40133]

I remember Digital Foundry mentioned hearing a rumor that PS5 would use Jaguar again. I wonder if MS heard the same thing and that was the basis of their confidence regarding hardware. 🤔

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Unfathomable, and yet digital foundry is careful to vet things. So they were able to repurpose a console in essentially 18ish months to match or surpass Microsoft? That would be insane

 

[Imitation Of Life]

Sony must not be into controlled leaks then because there are no insiders on here. At least not any vocal ones.

 

[Godzilla24]

Hopefully Sony can put some of that engineering talent into making a quieter console. Fingers crossed. PS4 pro was half assed.

 

[DangerMouse]

The controlled leaks is the reason why some insiders are basically influencers in my eyes.

Just my opinion.

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Completely agree, if/when they happen. These kinds of things always function like carrots.

 

[AudiophileRS]

Regarding the 8GB HBM2 rumour vs the possible 24GB GDDR6; it's worth noting it's not a straight bandwidth comparison of 512GB/s vs 672GB/s:

The HBM solution is filling 8GB @ 512GB/s which gives you bandwidth per GB of 64GB/s, whereas the GDDR solution is filling 24GB @ 672GB/s which gives a bandwidth per GB of 28GB/s. Each GB -- or whatever arbitrary unit you wish to use -- is being moved 2.3x faster.

Whether 8GB at any speed is enough capacity for bandwidth sensitive tasks is of course another question..?


PS5 | HBM2 8GB + DDR4 16GB | Combined UMA

Pros:​

• Reduced CPU<>GPU Memory Contention
• HBM: 2.3x Bandwidth Per GB
• DDR: Access & Latency Better Suited to CPU
• Can default to a single memory pool using HBCC (or similar) while providing multiple layers of abstraction/management for further optimisation.
• Reduced physical footprint, power consumption and thermals which may allow for a slightly more performant CPU/GPU.

Cons:​

• HBM: Reduced Overall Capacity for Bandwidth Sensitive Tasks
• DDR: Only Suited to Low Bandwidth Tasks
• Flexibility and ability to compete with a single 24GB UMA depends entirely on the effectiveness of HBCC (or similar) or optimisation by devs if bypassed.
• Increased I/O Complexity

16+16 would be my pipedream and a no brainer if possible! :p

 

[disco_potato]

Hopefully Sony can put some of that engineering talent into making a quieter console. Fingers crossed. PS4 pro was half assed.

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They can do what MS did. Quiet system but runs 5-10* higher. AMD has the same idea with reference NAVI cards. Low fan speeds, low noise, high temps.

 

[blastprocessor]

Apprently Apple's iPhone chip will be 5nm in 2020 what's to say PS5 won't be using 5nm?

 

[only_fools_&_horses]

The problem is, that HBM2 + DDR4 has not the same bandwidith.

24GB GDDR6 RAM 14Gbps on a 386bit bus has a total bandwith of 672GB/s
HBM2 in a 2 stack (2*4GB) configuration at 1000MHz on a 2048 bit bus has a total bandwidth of 512GB/s
So you still need 160GB/s bandwidth with your DDR4 RAM solution to match GDDR6
And that would be a 256 bit interface with 5000MHz DDR4 RAM (8* 2GB)

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Regarding the 8GB HBM2 rumour vs the possible 24GB GDDR6; it's worth noting it's not a straight bandwidth comparison of 512GB/s vs 672GB/s:

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Aren't 24 GB of GDDR6 out of equation in new Xbox because there are 2 different memory sizes noticed in teaser?

 

[Pheonix]

We don't really know how much "keep it in memory just in case" really takes. For instance, Spider-man loads most of the stuff around him in real time from the HDD. It starts by streaming from the HDD a 20MB tile for every 128 meters (it's actually 3 tiles so it's 60MB) while the rest slowly streams from the HDD too in order to increase quality (for instance higher mip textures or storefronts). So what will an SSD do for Spider-man 2? They can make each tile data a lot bigger for a denser scene or they can make Spider-man go faster for game-play purposes, or they can strike a balance between them. But memory wise? I'm not sure that the Spider-man presentation showed us any evidence for big savings in memory space if they had faster HDD. It will remove duplications which take more than 10GB on the BR disk (I'm actually not sure about that because SSD read sequential data x10 faster) but I'm not sure it will be a big memory saver. It will save memory space, that's for sure, but I really can't tell how much.

I think that the most important fact is that it can feed the RAM really fast, that's the game changer. No more loading FMVs or long corridors :)

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I completely agree. I, after all, have no idea whatever that "keep in memory just in case" size is. But yeah, you are right.... I was able to dig up RAM usage in KZ:SF on the PS4. Back whn they were using only like 4.5GB for games.

 

[Decade_2050]

I would hope that they would still keep enough memory to support external storage which is not SSD,. Has anyone heard if MS or Sony will even support external storage next gen ?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Then they legit have a horshoe stuck up their asses that they were basically forced through delays out of their control to release a console at the same time as MS within the same envelope of power. With the added benefit that MS went ALL in on being the most powerful to the point that if they're even negligibly even people will lose with their minds. With an added possible benefit of getting MS to shitcan a lower end sku which is just wasted r&d money

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As Chamber said below, it lines up with the rumor DF heard of Sony using Jaguar again. It seems like they were just going to essentially keep that PS4 ball rolling because of how successful it was. Just ramp it all up technology wise.

Microsoft's Snek would have clobbered the PS5 in that scenario.

I remember Digital Foundry mentioned hearing a rumor that PS5 would use Jaguar again. I wonder if MS heard the same thing and that was the basis of their confidence regarding hardware. 🤔

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Yep, I think that is what may have happened.

Unfathomable, and yet digital foundry is careful to vet things. So they were able to repurpose a console in essentially 18ish months to match or surpass Microsoft? That would be insane

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lol

Cerny is damn good at what he does, after all. Assuming this is all true, Sony dodged one heck of a bullet and also had the perfect guy to steer them back on course.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

Is this the first Pastebin leak to mention SSD drives?

Posted on DEC 3RD, 2018

https://pastebin.com/PY9vaTsR/

Things that it got right:

8 core Zen
Navi
Nand Flash mention
Q2 2019 small reveal: (This was posted by RuthenicCookie first so it might just be piggybacking off him)

Things that it got wrong:
Navi being power efficient.
HDD mention. I don't believe a dev would mix up HDD and SSD.

Things that it missed:
HDR in PSVR2.
The customization of SSD and how core the SSD is.

Things that are unknown but sounds incredulous:
14 TF: Knowing how bad Navi is at pushing flops, this seems suspicious
Steam analog trackpad on the controllers replacing the joy sticks: Not sure if they want to risk an iconic joystick design.

 

[AudiophileRS]

Aren't 24 GB of GDDR6 out of equation in new Xbox because there are 2 different memory sizes noticed in teaser?

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Assuming that's the case we'd still be looking at 1.7-1.9x per GB for capacities of 18-20GB.

I wonder how Sony/MS are going to handle the OS reserve on these consoles considering the current consoles are already using 3-4GB and we're pretty much certain to see a much small RAM increase this gen. Perhaps using a mix of RAM and Virtual RAM on the SSD?