Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT6| - Mostly Fan Noise and Hot Air

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
You have, with assumption :
  • Unpatched PS4 games : can run natively / boost mode Pro / boost mode PS5 (not sure, most are already at their best on boost)
  • Patched / already Pro enabled games : can run natively (maybe?) / Pro Mode with or without downsampling / boost mode PS5.
This is my take. Boost mode PS5 will allow better frame rate and / or better average resolution on dynamic resolutions games (which is most of recent third party games).
seems like it, but the boost mode actually seems to split to a few options that seem very interesting.
you could have normal compatibility modes, as in, for ps4 compatibility, disable half the CUs and downclock to 800mhz, for ps4 pro compatibility, activate all CU and downclock to 911mhz.
but if you use boost mode, for ps4 games without a pro patch, you would need to still disable half the CU but clock on 2000MHz, and for games with a pro patch, run at full speed. that would mean much stronger boost mode this time around, even utilizing the PS5 to its max on PS4 Pro patched games.
i hope some devs will just patch their dynamic res games to remove the upper limit of the resolution scaler.

Important part:

“With their HBM2E memory set to go into mass production in 2020, SK Hynix expects the new memory to be used on “supercomputers, machine learning, and artificial intelligence systems that require the maximum level of memory performance.” All of these are distinctly high-end applications where HBM2 is already being heavily used today, so HBM2E is a natural extension to that market. At the same time, it’s also a reflection of the price/margins that HBM2 carries. HBM2 has remained (stubbornly) high-priced well after its release – a situation that memory manufacturers seem to be perfectly content with – and we’re not expecting HBM2E to change that. So expect to see SK Hynix’s HBM2E memory remain the domain of servers and other high-end equipment.
so they are not expecting price to change, if PS5 were to use these, they would have probably expected the price to go down as you would have orders of millions upon millions of these.
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,276
Europe
seems like it, but the boost mode actually seems to split to a few options that seem very interesting.
you could have normal compatibility modes, as in, for ps4 compatibility, disable half the CUs and downclock to 800mhz, for ps4 pro compatibility, activate all CU and downclock to 911mhz.
but if you use boost mode, for ps4 games without a pro patch, you would need to still disable half the CU but clock on 2000MHz, and for games with a pro patch, run at full speed. that would mean much stronger boost mode this time around, even utilizing the PS5 to its max on PS4 Pro patched games.
i hope some devs will just patch their dynamic res games to remove the upper limit of the resolution scaler.


so they are not expecting price to change, if PS5 were to use these, they would have probably expected the price to go down as you would have orders of millions upon millions of these.
I’m afraid we are not getting HBM2 in $399 or even $499 console.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,638
This.

In fact the whole GPU pipeline benefits from higher clocks, so from the FE, geometry, rasterisation, shading and render backends as you mentioned.

I would guess, Sony weighed the option of a much larger die and decided instead they'd get more benefit from a smaller faster GPU than a wider slower one.

I honestly, can't imagine why MS wouldn't come to the same conclusion given the data available to them will be the same.



This.
It's funny because I was under the impression that wide and slow was the best option for consoles, because you got the best performance per watt. I know a bigger die is more expensive, but still.
 

STech

Member
Sep 24, 2018
515
I don’t know, but the rumours sounded better when we were talking about a 500€ machine with RT.

I mean, I know it’s better for the general public, but for first time I rather want a better product instead a budget-adjusted one.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,182
I don’t know, but the rumours sounded better when we were talking about a 500€ machine with RT.

I mean, I know it’s better for the general public, but for first time I rather want a better product instead a budget-adjusted one.
Regardless of price Matt already stated that both will have hardware RT.
 

thuway

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,011
I can imagine Scarlett having slightly better RT simply due to having, say, 20 WGPs vs. the PS5 packing only 18 WGPs. 5700XT has 16 more TMUs than the 5700, and if the RT cores are linked to them, that could give it a slight advantage.

That said, BVH traversal is one of those things that likes running faster better rather than wider, IIRC.
Which do you think will have the power crown
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
662
What's the allure with having HBM2? Saving space? More power efficient?
People are under the impression that hbm would give a significant increase to apu performance due to lower heat output.
Problem is more of that heat would be concentrated near the die compared to gddr chips. We're looking at insignificant power consumption reduction with increased cost and likely some compromises as ddr4 would be paired with the hbm.
 
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gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,112
Does "other nonsense" cover PS5 having a superior GPU and SSD? Because that's also happening. It all sounds like speculation to me, in a speculation thread no less.
Speculation that goes around in circles don't make any sense.
It's the same for both MS and Sony .
This thread has a habbit when ever we just a little info people twist stuff .
 

SeanMN

Member
Oct 28, 2017
723
This.

In fact the whole GPU pipeline benefits from higher clocks, so from the FE, geometry, rasterisation, shading and render backends as you mentioned.

I would guess, Sony weighed the option of a much larger die and decided instead they'd get more benefit from a smaller faster GPU than a wider slower one.

I honestly, can't imagine why MS wouldn't come to the same conclusion given the data available to them will be the same.
They already came to that conclusion several years ago when designing the Xbox One X.
there's a clear emphasis on pushing GPU frequencies significantly higher than anything we've seen in any console powered by core AMD technology. "This has two wonderful virtues from my perspective - as you know, the clock drives all the various different parts of the pipeline so it raises all boats," explains Andrew Goossen. "I don't get imbalances in my pipeline or introduce new bottlenecks or anything like that. The second one is that for the pixel pushing power we didn't need as much area, we didn't need as many CUs to hit that. It saves area - a pretty important consideration."
I expect them to have similar design principles on Scarlett as was seen on Scorpio, though perhaps some of their priorities changed given the hint of the die size. Prior to the Gonzalo and now Oberon leaks, I would've guessed Scarlett featured the higher clocks, but now I just can't seem to see how they could push 1800-2000 MHz and have an SOC around 380mm^2 in a console for a reasonable price - so something has to give, and my guess is they'll be clocked lower than the PS5.
 

Dizastah

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,523
I just wanna know what kind of graphic fidelity I should be expecting in next-gen consoles.......to temper my expectations. :)
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
3,638
People are under the impression that hbm would give a significant increase to apu performance due to lower heat output.
Not sure how that would work as more heat would be concentrated near the die compared to gddr chips. We're looking at insignificant power consumption reduction with increased cost and likely some compromises as ddr4 would be paired with the hbm.
It's not about heat output, it's about power consumption, and I remember hearing that the DDR4+HBM2 combo would actually save about 20W (so not insignificant for the GPU). And while HBM2 is usually considerably more expensive than GDDR6, DDR4 is considerably cheaper, and the rumour made several claims regarding how Sony was getting this HBM2 for cheaper than usual, so it would likely average out to having a similar price.

And I'm not sure what you mean by compromises, but if you're talking about the traditional issues with split memory like what the PS3 had, those would also be irrelevant due to HBCC making the two memory types look like a single 20GB pool to devs and managing it in the background.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,556
Barcelona Spain
Doesn't matter for me after David Cage said that rt on ps5 is good enough for 1080p.
Again taking what said a game director, not a game technical director told in an interview without any context maybe PS5 is able to run Control at 1080p 30 fps or 60 fps like the 2080 Ti. We have no idea what he was talking about and in the same interview, he keeps talking about 8k like it is a next-gen reality... Native 4k will not be in all game out of upscale 8k will not be a next-gen reality...

I can say the 2080 Ti is just a Quake 2 1080p 60 fps raytracing GPU...
 

Thera

Member
Feb 28, 2019
1,030
but if you use boost mode, for ps4 games without a pro patch, you would need to still disable half the CU but clock on 2000MHz, and for games with a pro patch, run at full speed. that would mean much stronger boost mode this time around, even utilizing the PS5 to its max on PS4 Pro patched games.
i hope some devs will just patch their dynamic res games to remove the upper limit of the resolution scaler.
The question is : is that hardcoded ?
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
Again taking what said a game director, not a game technical director told in an interview without any context maybe PS5 is able to run Control at 1080p 30 fps or 60 fps like the 2080 Ti.
Since when Quantic Dream target 60fps on playstation ?;) Heavy rain 30fps both os ps3 and ps4, Beyond Two Sould 30 fps on ps3 and ps4, Detroit Become Human 30fps on ps4 and ps4 pro
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,556
Barcelona Spain
Since when Quantic Dream target 60fps on playstation ?;) Heavy rain 30fps both os ps3 and ps4, Beyond Two Sould 30 fps on ps3 and ps4, Detroit Become Human 30fps on ps4 and ps4 pro
And even if they target 30 fps it not mean the raytracing will not be better than in Control. You don't have any context for what he said not any game or demo...

EDIT: It is like taking the 1080p talk and deducting the number of flops, the slowest part is the raytracing part maybe PS5 has less gigaray than a 2070 or 2080... Taking anything about a gamer director not particularly technically strong is not good this in not Kojima we talk about...
 

Bunzy

Member
Nov 1, 2018
506
What if Sony is going all out on raytracing. Maybe they figured out early on they needed lots of die space for rt cores and only way they could pull it off cost wise was to boost clocks and go with with less CU’s
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
And even if they target 30 fps it not mean the raytracing will not be better than in Control. You don't have any context for what he said not any game or demo...
Sure, not much details but
Our current analysis is that few studios will go for 8K because it will necessitate too many compromises on the overall quality of the game. Ray Tracing is going to be so costly that we will probably only see Full HD titles using it (there is a direct connection between resolution, Ray Tracing and performances), at least in the first generation of titles
tells me that we shouldn't expect heavy rt on nextgen consoles.
And more
“All in all, we believe that there will be serious improvements in next-gen games, but maybe not the ones that are currently promoted the most.”
So expect serious improvement but forget about buzz words as 8k, ray tracing, 120fps.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
in general the whole fast but narrrow vs slow and wide:
for fast and narrow solution:
cheaper to produce the APU and smaller in size
in cases of close TF number, the fast but narrow will often beat the slow and wide solution.
higher pixel throughput.
more performance that can be used for the BC boost mode.

slow and wide:
lower TDP, could use that power consumption on other parts of the system, like a higher clocked CPU, or faster memory.
using cheaper cooling solution probably.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,988
Wide and slow is best when considering TDP. If you can figure out a way t cool the system though then smaller and faster is better.
With costs of production increasing exponentially as we go to smaller nodes, i wouldnt be surprised if sony went with a smaller chip to save some money. though i dont know how much money they would be saving with a 320mm2 gpu compared to a 380mm2 gpu.

all i know is thats very risky. sony would be giving up precious CUs in favor of a hail mary on ridiculously high clockspeeds that might not have transpired if everything didnt go according to plan.
I just wanna know what kind of graphic fidelity I should be expecting in next-gen consoles.......to temper my expectations. :)


Expect game enviornments to look photorealistic thanks to megatextures used in the Rebirth video, at least in first party games, and character models to look very CGi. not everything can be photorealistic just yet, so expect stylized graphics like in the heretic demo, but i suspect some open world games set in barren lands will come very close to the rebirth video.

People are under the impression that hbm would give a significant increase to apu performance due to lower heat output.
Problem is more of that heat would be concentrated near the die compared to gddr chips. We're looking at insignificant power consumption reduction with increased cost and likely some compromises as ddr4 would be paired with the hbm.
i thought the sony leaks showed that HBM2 would either stack on top of the APU or right around it. and a massive cooler would sit on top of it cooling everything from the APU to the HMB2 stacks.

Fake Edit: Found it.




This post says it would go under the APU. Like how?

 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,556
Barcelona Spain
Sure, not much details but tells me that we shouldn't expect heavy rt on nextgen consoles.
And again he told first-generation title... Currently all the graphics pipeline is not raytracing friendly. For example, all current shaders systems with tons of different shaders need to be redone for keeping only a few gloabl shaders because it kills intruction cache simply the worst cache miss existing... After there is some improvement they maybe have like LOD management for the BVH or data structure or ray reordering which aren't inside the first DXR implementation...

It is not meaning after some optimization and improvement you will not have some1440p title...

Our current analysis is that few studios will go for 8K because it will necessitate too many compromises on the overall quality of the game.
My analysis no studio will go 8k because this is too costly. This is 16x more than PS4...
 

FSavage

Member
Oct 30, 2017
488
Sure, not much details but tells me that we shouldn't expect heavy rt on nextgen consoles.
And more

So expect serious improvement but forget about buzz words as 8k, ray tracing, 120fps.
You are being obtuse. He’s talking about ray-traced next-gen games. Higher graphics mean more resources needed for ray-tracing. Are you expecting graphics to stay the same between this and next gen?
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,688
Florida
As an Xbox primary guy my expectations are tempered based on their constant messaging around frame rates and loading times. Obviously you need much more GPU to push 4K60 than 4K30 but none of the messaging currently boasts about elevating visual fidelity. I'm expecting 10 TF Navi and not falling for the 12-14 trap some are boasting about.
 

Dizastah

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,523
if we are retaining the resolution level of the PS4 pro (4k checkerboard), then we should have around 3x the graphical complexity of the current generation.


Expect game enviornments to look photorealistic thanks to megatextures used in the Rebirth video, at least in first party games, and character models to look very CGi. not everything can be photorealistic just yet, so expect stylized graphics like in the heretic demo, but i suspect some open world games set in barren lands will come very close to the rebirth video.
Thanks. That's about what I expected. Give me this for $399 and I'm game.
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
You are being obtuse. He’s talking about ray-traced next-gen games. Higher graphics mean more resources needed for ray-tracing. Are you expecting graphics to stay the same between this and next gen?
I shouldn't respond couse you didn't deserve but it's you lucky day. Nope, I expect big improvement in graphics quality but not heavy rt (I pressume nextgen consoles will be less capable in this field than rtx2070).
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
As an Xbox primary guy but my expectations are tempered based on their constant messaging around frame rates and loading times. Obviously you need much more GPU to push 4K60 than 4K30 but none of the messaging currently boasts about elevating visual fidelity. I'm expecting 10 TF Navi and not falling for the 12-14 trap some are boasting about.
you really shouldnt be expecting more than 10TF, so i agree with this expectation. maybe MS decided to go wider but slower so it ends up getting higher like maybe 48CU @ 1500mhz which is the same as the persumed PS5 in TF number (if sony are doing 2000mhz with 36CU it makes sense that MS will be able to do something along that), maybe a little better with 1600mhz for 9.8TF. but honestly i dont expect them to be too far apart, and highly doubt any leak at this point that suggests >10TF for any side.
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
Read the full interview. He said raytracing will be more important than resolution. I disagree... He thinks we will see title going from 4k to 1080p or 1440p but with raytracing...
Can you give me quotation of this ? I've just read interview second time and only sentence that can give hope for rt with bigger resoultion than 1080p is this:
Ray tracing is going to be so costly that we will probably only see full HD titles using it (there is a direct connection between resolution, ray tracing and performance), at least in the first generation of titles. Next-gen consoles show a significant improvement in CPU power, which will mean significant improvements in physics and AI. GPU improvement should be enough to get ray tracing in full HD or full 4K resolution (without ray tracing).
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,556
Barcelona Spain
Can you give me quotation of this ? I've just read interview second time and only sentence that can give hope for rt with bigger resoultion than 1080p is this:

the original interview

Lighting, not resolution, will be the next big technical advancement, according to Cage.


I think that lighting is going to be a key thing. There is this new technology called “ray tracing” that we talk a lot about these days. I think this is going to be interesting because it will allow to improve reflections, lighting, shadows. And I think that's a big deal. For years, I mean, the amount of polygons you could display was key, then it became the shaders and then textures, and now I think it's all about the lighting, and the more subtle and nuanced the lighting will be, the better the image will be. I don't think it's going to be a war about resolution; I know that people talk about 8K these days and blah blah blah. I don't think this is the real next battle. I would rather put focus on lighting. Lighting, lighting, lighting.