Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT6| - Mostly Fan Noise and Hot Air

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
1,368
St Kitts
TDP is thermal design power. I'm talking about electrical power consumption.

Vapour chamber or any other cooling method doesn't magically change how much power a chip consumes.

You've got it wrong.

The important factors are:
  1. Transistor count (of which die size is a proxy for)
  2. Clock speed
  3. Voltage
The top two are defined by the design and the third by the manufacturing process and microarchitecture of which a console designer has less influence over if they wanna keep costs under control.

It's even more complicated than that but it gives you a good guide.
lol... i know what TDP is.

The thing is, power consumption doesn't force a hard limit on what you can do. It's an optional limit. But TDP on the other hand forces a hard limit when considering the size of the console, size, type and cost of the cooling solution.

You are the one getting this wrong. Lets take say the 5700xt for instance. That's a 40CU chip and is capable of a sustained clock of around 1755Mhz at ~160W. Its possible to undervolt it and still hit those clocks but consume less power and in turn have a lower TDP. But if you choose to clock it higher by just 100Mhz or 200Mhz you could push your power consumption up by 20% and raise the TDP up by 10% if you were already at your efficiency threshold.

The options are simple. If your power consumption is constant. Say 150W. When applying that 150W across two chips, one with 36CU and the other with 40CU, the 36CU chip will end up having a higher clock and a higher TDP while the 40CU chip will end up having a lower clock. You simply need more power to drive more transistors. This should be common sense.

So now let's assume you are a console maker.
  1. You can either go for more transistors, which will mean you have a bigger chip (+$$), don't have to clock to high to hit 9.2TF, so you can use a "normal" cooling solution (-$$)
  2. You can go with the bigger chip (+$$), clock t as high as you can go and opt for an een better cooling solution (+$$)
  3. You can go with a smaller chip (-$$) and clock it as high as possible and have to use a much better cooling solution (+$$)
You will find that options 1 and 3 are pretty much the same thing. The extra money is just spent somewhere else (one on cooling and the other on the bigger chip) but power consumption is near identical between the two. But with option 2 everything is just going to cost more and power consumption and TDP will also be higher.

You can tweak voltages all you want, but thats not really a viable option when considerring making 10s ofmilions of consoles each year and prioritizing yeailds. Are you going to tweak VRMs and cooling on each unit too? Nope. You will have a cooling solution and components that can handle you absolute worst performing chip. And that will be the baseline for your entire line.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
I thought that was thuway . Then I saw that account being followed by Digital Foundry.

Now I am confused but oh well, depending upon the twitter account owner's background, they just lent some credence to 2GHz.
It is followed by Shinobi602 too, NXGamer, Nibel, Insomniac Games, Adam Boyes, Sony San Diego...
i am pretty sure it is thuway.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,691
lol... i know what TDP is.

The thing is, power consumption doesn't force a hard limit on what you can do. It's an optional limit. But TDP on the other hand forces a hard limit when considering the size of the console, size, type and cost of the cooling solution.

You are the one getting this wrong. Lets take say the 5700xt for instance. That's a 40CU chip and is capable of a sustained clock of around 1755Mhz at ~160W. Its possible to undervolt it and still hit those clocks but consume less power and in turn have a lower TDP. But if you choose to clock it higher by just 100Mhz or 200Mhz you could push your power consumption up by 20% and raise the TDP up by 10% if you were already at your efficiency threshold.

The options are simple. If your power consumption is constant. Say 150W. When applying that 150W across two chips, one with 36CU and the other with 40CU, the 36CU chip will end up having a higher clock and a higher TDP while the 40CU chip will end up having a lower clock. You simply need more power to drive more transistors. This should be common sense.

So now let's assume you are a console maker.
  1. You can either go for more transistors, which will mean you have a bigger chip (+$$), don't have to clock to high to hit 9.2TF, so you can use a "normal" cooling solution (-$$)
  2. You can go with the bigger chip (+$$), clock t as high as you can go and opt for an een better cooling solution (+$$)
  3. You can go with a smaller chip (-$$) and clock it as high as possible and have to use a much better cooling solution (+$$)
You will find that options 1 and 3 are pretty much the same thing. The extra money is just spent somewhere else (one on cooling and the other on the bigger chip) but power consumption is near identical between the two. But with option 2 everything is just going to cost more and power consumption and TDP will also be higher.

You can tweak voltages all you want, but thats not really a viable option when considerring making 10s ofmilions of consoles each year and prioritizing yeailds. Are you going to tweak VRMs and cooling on each unit too? Nope. You will have a cooling solution and components that can handle you absolute worst performing chip. And that will be the baseline for your entire line.
One differentiation between 1 & 3 is that if you go with a big slow chip with normal cooking, there is some leeway for late adjustments to clocks (like MS did with xb1). If you go fast and small there is much less headroom to make improvements
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
1,368
St Kitts
I think Ms will go with 40cus @ 1900mhz.
Like the 5700xt in boost mode.
Nothing to fancy.
I don't even think thats possible. The 5700xt is not pushing 1900Mhz around the clock which is what would be required of a console. Its pushing 1755Mhz. Best MS would manage is 1800Mhz.

Mind you, I am aware of the irony in saying this and yet expecting sony to somehow manage 2000Mhz, but I believe for sony to be able to manage that then they must be using some form of cooling solution that is unlike anything we have seen so far. Cause there is no way they are hitting those clocks with the run of the mill vapor chamber blower cooler. Just look at the 5700XT which is doing exactly that. So no super custom cooling solution/7nm+ with a super custom cooling solution.... then no 2000Mhz.

Its also possible that they are both going to be built on the 7nm+ process which could make these higher clocks more attainable... but that is a big if and nothing right now suggests that's what they are doing.
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
1,368
St Kitts
One differentiation between 1 & 3 is that if you go with a big slow chip with normal cooking, there is some leeway for late adjustments to clocks (like MS did with xb1). If you go fast and small there is much less headroom to make improvements
That is true... but in this case, "normal cooling" is a vapor chamber. At that point, they are probably knocking on the door of their TDP limits. But yh, let's give it that and say there is room for adjustments. 1 and 3 still ends up within 5-10% of each other at the end of the day which is pretty much a when it comes down to framerates. 2 on the other hand will low both 1 and 3 outta the water.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,989
We need Arnie to reply to thuway on twitter again.

i love the BREAKING headline. lol i just cant with this guy.
 

androvsky

Member
Oct 27, 2017
799
I thought that was thuway . Then I saw that account being followed by Digital Foundry.

Now I am confused but oh well, depending upon the twitter account owner's background, they just lent some credence to 2GHz.
I'm confused too, since the tweet is just someone reposting the rumor being discussed currently. Unless it's Mark Cerny posting something like that, I'm not sure how important it is.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
What’s happening guys? I leave for a short vacation and stuff starts happening out of nowhere.
I have made today a long summary of every technical leak since Gonzalo in January to help keep everyone informed, jump to the end for the latest update:
Ok, so seems like nothing else leaked since I went to sleep. Surprised no article was made yet, but I guess that is hard to do when only komachi knows where to access the AMD leak. No one here or in beyond 3D managed to find this right?
Let’s try making sense of it all and going through everything we know about the sony’s Console once again.
Warning: long post incoming!
First in January a known AMD leaker, APISAK, has found Gonzalo and Ariel, Gonzalo is a gaming APU and has a 8 core CPU clocked at 1.6 GHz base clock and 3.2 GHz boost clock, and the GPU Ariel had 1GHz clock. Also it had an unknown cache size, implying that it uses a different amount of cache, likely cut down. Gonzalo was marked as Engineering Sample 2 and it’s code fit the PlayStation production, also the base clock of 1.6 GHz would make sense for a PlayStation console because it is similar to previous implementation of backwards compatibility with the PS4 Pro. Ariel iGPU has the id 13E9, to my understanding, 13E0 to 13FF are all reserved for Navi 10 LITE.
Later in early April, a Quality Sample version of Gonzalo had leaked, once again by APISAK, this time with a 1.8Ghz GPU clock and updated Ariel id of 13F8, which already sounded very high clock speed. But other than that,it didn’t really tell us much else.
a week later the plans for the next generation PlayStation have been discussed by Mark Cerny for Wired, the proximity of Gonzalo getting updated to the article seemed suspicious indeed.
In the article the following things were confirmed: 8 core zen 2 CPU (Gonzalo also listed 8 core), Navi GPU with ray tracing, specialized audio chip to enable more accurate audio to the world, backwards compatibility with the PS4 generation, and lastly a custom SSD that, according to mark cerny, has a higher raw bandwidth than any SSD on PC. Cerny also said that not only is the read speed important (implying that by high bandwidth he was referring to read), but so is the IO mechanism and the software stack.
In May, AMD has announced their 7nm Zen 2 CPUs, surprise to no one, they are great CPUs for their prices. Also AMD announced their Navi architecture, based on a new RDNA architecture, 25% IPC boost over the previous generation, much more power efficient, etc.
Also in May our own user gofreak found a patent that details potential improvements to the SSD to lower its latency, improve its bandwidth etc. You can read more in the thread they made for this patent, very interesting stuff:
In June AMD NAVI was unveiled as the RX 5700 and the RX 5700XT, 36CU and 40CU GPUs, each with 8GB of GDDR6. These GPUs are based off the 40CU Navi 10 die. It makes sense then that gonzalo is based off a similar die because its GPU is based off the Navi 10LITE die.
Navi launched, its gaming performance had been pretty good, but not incredible,during the launch period IPC tests were made for Navi and it is found out Navi actually has a higher or equal IPC NVidia’s latest architecture, and 39% higher IPC than Polaris (PS4 pro and X1X GPU architecture).
A few weeks ago, a product was found on user benchmark called AMD Flute. It is still no clear what AMD Flute is, but it has the same CPU clocks as Gonzalo, also it mentions that not only it has 8 cores, but 16 threads, and GPU Id of 13F9, or a Navi 10 LITE, which means this is most likely the whole system that has Gonzalo, or what we assumed to be the PlayStation 5 devkit. The CPU did show a lower score Han expected, and what seems to be a quarter of the cache of the normal ryzen 3000 CPU, this is possibly the cause of the lower score. Flute has 16 chips of GDDR6 each of 1GB, seems to be a downclocked version of the 18Gbps memory, it makes sense if the final version uses 8 chips of 2GB instead.
And finally we get to yesterday, where the reliable AMD insider komachi has found out that AMD has accidentally uploaded a lot of data with a public access, in there he found mentions if Oberon and Ariel, he explained he thinks they are the same. Oberon has 3 GPU clocks listed:
Gen 0 with 800MHz clock, gen 1 with 911MHz clock, and gen 2 with 2000MHz, this information is critical. Gen 0 and gen 1 are obviously PS4 and PS4 pro gpu clocks., Which means that without a doubt Oberon is the PS5, and has 2GHz clock. Why would it have those clocks? The reason is this; the PlayStation 5 seems to use a very similar backwards compatibility solution to the PS4 Pro, it will have the same Compute unit count of 36CU, so that to be compatible with the base PS4, you could disable half the compute units and clock the GPU at 800MHz for safe compatibility activate all the compute units and clock at 911MHz for safe PS4 pro compatibility. 36 Compute units clocked at 2000MHz would give us 9.2TF, with 39% higher IPC than Polaris we will get the equivalent of 12.8TF Polaris GPU, or 3x PS4Pro or a little higher than 2X X1X GPU performance. If this is true then Sony has a small but fast GPU, which should help in reducing cost, and also it might have a bit higher performance than a wider but lower clocked GPU due to clocks scaling better than CU count.
Then comes the question: why has the GPU clock increased. This is speculation territory, but, 40CU with 1800MHz would have an equal amount of TF, so maybe until they get the 36CU 2000MHz to work, they gave developers 40CU 1800MHz. Needs to be mentioned that usually console manufacturers uses disables a few compute units, but has been established before, in order to have 44CU with 4 disabled, due to Navi’s design, you would need to waste a lot more space, compared to 40CU with 4 disabled to have 36CU. So it makes more sense going that route.
Komachi has been saying that Oberon is Ariel, so if we connect everything and really Ariel, Gonzalo, Flute and Oberon are all PS5 related code names then we can make a close to final spec list:

Zen 2 CPU with 8 core 16 threads clocked at 3.2GHz, quarter of desktop ryzen 3000 CPU cache.
Navi GPU with 36 compute units clocked at 2GHz = 9.2 TF which roughly equals to 2X X1X or 3x PS4Pro in GPU performance.
16GB GDDR6 with a bandwidth of around 530GB/s I think.

There are 2 question marks left:
Price
SSD size and bandwidth

Phew that was a lot of typing, but I felt like this was necessary at this point.
Please correct me on anything here or ask questions where needed.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,989
What’s happening guys? I leave for a short vacation and stuff starts happening out of nowhere.
komachi leaked a new ps5 gpu called oberon. its also a shakespeare character like Flute and Gonzalo.

Except that he found three different clockspeeds for Oberon.

.800 Ghz
.911 Ghz
2.0 Ghz

800 mhz is the PS4 GPU clock
911 mhz is the PS4 Pro GPU clock
2.0 Ghz has to be the PS5 GPU clock.

2.0 is higher than anything from AMD on the market. the anniversary edition of 5700 XT (10.1 tflops) has 1.98 ghz. Nothing makes sense anymore.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
Sigh... that post would have been sooooooooooo much better if you had just used a numbered list. It could have been our very own leak diary.
I will fix the formatting of it tomorrow, also if there is anything you want me to add or correct please do.
Also does anyone have a picture saved of Flute leak as it was erased later. I’ll probably add it in and further detail about apthe GDDR6 analysis as that part was from memory and has a few logic gaps that will be fixed with a clear image.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,989
I will fix the formatting of it tomorrow, also if there is anything you want me to add or correct please do.
Also does anyone have a picture saved of Flute leak as it was erased later. I’ll probably add it in and further detail about apthe GDDR6 analysis as that part was from memory and has a few logic gaps that will be fixed with a clear image.


Comparison between Ryzen 1700 and the Flute CPU.

 

Putty

Double Eleven
Verified
Oct 27, 2017
631
Middlesbrough
I got a DM from Thuway askibg if i knew anything a few months ago...I said I knew nothing ...not that i would say of course...never got a reply...very rude.
 
Feb 10, 2018
12,752
I don't even think thats possible. The 5700xt is not pushing 1900Mhz around the clock which is what would be required of a console. Its pushing 1755Mhz. Best MS would manage is 1800Mhz.

Mind you, I am aware of the irony in saying this and yet expecting sony to somehow manage 2000Mhz, but I believe for sony to be able to manage that then they must be using some form of cooling solution that is unlike anything we have seen so far. Cause there is no way they are hitting those clocks with the run of the mill vapor chamber blower cooler. Just look at the 5700XT which is doing exactly that. So no super custom cooling solution/7nm+ with a super custom cooling solution.... then no 2000Mhz.

Its also possible that they are both going to be built on the 7nm+ process which could make these higher clocks more attainable... but that is a big if and nothing right now suggests that's what they are doing.
All good points you make.

I wonder how much this super duper cooler Sony has made will cost.

I never new Sony were such pioneers in the silicon cooling industry.

Sony would be mad not to sell this tech in the PC market, if its smashes all competitors.
 

FarisR

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,369
This rumour about sony revealing ps5 12 February, is it possible premiere will be first quarter of 2020?
That is the expectation. PS Meeting or whatever in early 2020. Based off the way they revealed PS4 in Feb of 2013.

I have a theory that Sony is going to be holding a big event at one venue in Q1 2020. Instead of holding a separate PS Meeting for the unveil of PS5, and Destination Playstation (retailer event from Sony that takes place every year), this will be one event spanning a few days and will also act as a fan event like PSX. Certain days dedicated to fans, others for media/industry only. Maybe some updates on PS4 games near the start of the event, and the PS5 unveil at the end of it.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,989
All good points you make.

I wonder how much this super duper cooler Sony has made will cost.

I never new Sony were such pioneers in the silicon cooling industry.

Sony would be mad not to sell this tech in the PC market, if its smashes all competitors.
Sony is and always has been a hardware company lol. their consoles, phones, laptops, tvs and cameras were all top of the line back in one point or another. kids are probably too young to remember the walkman, their extremely popular Vaio laptops and the Sony Erickson phones which were everywhere before the Iphone took over.
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
1,368
St Kitts
komachi leaked a new ps5 gpu called oberon. its also a shakespeare character like Flute and Gonzalo.

Except that he found three different clockspeeds for Oberon.

.800 Ghz
.911 Ghz
2.0 Ghz

800 mhz is the PS4 GPU clock
911 mhz is the PS4 Pro GPU clock
2.0 Ghz has to be the PS5 GPU clock.

2.0 is higher than anything from AMD on the market. the anniversary edition of 5700 XT (10.1 tflops) has 1.98 ghz. Nothing makes sense anymore.
I think the fact amd got a 5700XT variant as high up as 1980Ghz actually bodes well fo this leak.

I will fix the formatting of it tomorrow, also if there is anything you want me to add or correct please do.
Also does anyone have a picture saved of Flute leak as it was erased later. I’ll probably add it in and further detail about apthe GDDR6 analysis as that part was from memory and has a few logic gaps that will be fixed with a clear image.
You can throw in that sny coling patent too, don't have a link fr it though. Good work in advance... it was a great wite up and summary.
All good points you make.

I wonder how much this super duper cooler Sony has made will cost.

I never new Sony were such pioneers in the silicon cooling industry.

Sony would be mad not to sell this tech in the PC market, if its smashes all competitors.
Its not really that complicated though... well maybe itis a little. As it stands, a conventional cooler has a transfer plate making direct contact with the hip and that plate extends into its cooling fins. Sony's patent suggests that there will be two such plates, one on either side of the PCB. There would still be only one cooling fin and one fan but just a significantly larger surface area to carry out the heat generated by the chip.

The problem with this being on PCs is that the motherboards would have to be built a specific way and s would the hips being sold. Chalk this o as a benefit custom hardware.

But this is all just going off the patents... which have been around since early this year and I even mostly ignored. The only reason it gaining traction now is cause its the only conceivable way to hit 2Ghz. Or maybe they use water cooling lol.