Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT6| - Mostly Fan Noise and Hot Air

Oluasc

Be more dog!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,234
...
So are we gonna take this quote literally and seriously?



Probably CPU alone or overall.
Expect things like this:

CPU: 4X over X
GPU: 2X over X
RAM: 1.5X over X
SSD: 40X over X
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,988
If somebody things ps5 will have 36 cu(40cu with 4 disabled) because backward compatibility then he is wrong. They will go with this number because rx5700xt with 40cu is 251mm^2 at 7nm and its even little bigger than expected for console gpu and sony don't want to make the same mistake as with ps3 (sell consoles with big loses).
A cut down zen 2 would be 40 mm2. thats a 291mm2 apu with maybe 20 mm2 reserved for i/o stuff. 311mm2 max. smaller than the pro, the base ps4, base xb1 and the xb1x. not bigger.

there is also a pretty good chance that 2.0 ghz pretty much guarantees its on 7nm+ as AMD wasnt comfortable clocking their 7nm desktop GPUs at 2.0 ghz, even the anniversary edition which topped out at 1.98ghz.

and if its on 7nm+, 315mm2 will be the same as 350-360mm2 7nm apu which means it will definitely be more than 40 cus.
 
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Colbert

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,098
Germany
So are we gonna take this quote literally and seriously?



No, 4 times as powerful references CPU and not GPU. Oluasc also gave you some good indicators what to expect for each system component improvement.
 

ody

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,292
So are we gonna take this quote literally and seriously?




EG: If you let me back I'll be here. Back to Scarlett... you mentioned it has four times the power of Xbox One X, which certainly sounds good. But what does that mean?

Matt Booty: It's a few things - it's the combination of speed, not just of the SSD but of the processor, the performance of the GPU and RAM, but we're also in a world where speed is starting not to matter.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,529
Booty was incorrect.


Microsoft is calling Scarlett “a bigger leap than any generation we’ve done before,” specifying that from a “pure processing perspective, [Scarlett is] four times more powerful than Xbox One X.” Today, Variety was able to confirm with Microsoft that this number was specifically in reference to Scarlett’s CPU, and not it’s graphical horsepower, which we still know very little about.
 

Nightengale

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Oct 26, 2017
2,277
Malaysia
Well now I don't know who to believe
Simple.

It’s easy for even company reps to have a slip of tongue or made a mistake when it comes to things outside their element of absolute expertise.

These kind of talking points are often embedded as part of actual product PR, and if someone says something that isn’t also supported by the general PR of it, either it’s a gaffe or they said something that shouldn’t be revealed yet.

In Booty’s point, his talking ppint was later refuted by Phil and follow up inquiries to MS.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,905
Don't expect Sony or MS to push the hardware as far as they can. They'll want to leave some buffer for the pro models in 3-4 years.
Actually, they will be pushing it as far as they can under their constraints (budget, time, etc..). Whatever gets released late 2020 will be the foundation for the rest of the gen, so it makes more sense to get that as high as possible.
 

FarisR

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,369
There are also going to be some decent advances that will be made in time for the mid-gen refreshes (better hardware RT, zen 5 or 6 on 3nm possibly etc), and both Sony and MS won't be shy about launching a high priced mid-gen refresh (more change on Sony's end since they played it super safe with the Pro). Not to mention, since devs know to expect these things, we most likely will get more games with modes/design that are setup to be taken advantage of by more powerful systems in the future even without patching.
 
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Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
1,368
St Kitts
Don't expect Sony or MS to push the hardware as far as they can. They'll want to leave some buffer for the pro models in 3-4 years.
This makes no sense. Its like you don't understand why consoles like the Pro/X even exists.

What specifically makes them possible has ALWAYs been there... yup, from the 6th gen all the way up to the current-gen. Advances in fabrication processes. Thats it, nothing more nothing less. Back in the day such advancements just meant we would see slim models of the consoles. Now, in addition to slim models, they just added another SKU. One that basically would have been what they would have ended up with if the built the best console they could build at that new process as opposed t just shrinking the chip of their existing hardware.

Basically, if 3/4nm chips became a thing sometime in 2023/24, then in addition to seeing a PS5 slim, we will see a PS5pro that will at least be twice as powerful as whatever the PS5 is 2020.
 

Nightengale

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Oct 26, 2017
2,277
Malaysia
There's a reason why mid-gens were called PS4 (something) and Xbox One (something).

They are part of the product family of the original 2013 consoles, and are inherently anchored to those releases. The important products to get right are those products. For all intents and purpose, mid-gen revisions could not exist next-gen and it would be fine.
 

Silencerx98

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
615
You're getting stuck in naming semantics.
It's a dynamically generated ray-search acceleration structure that you can use to generate GI, reflections, or just render the entire scene (completely skip rasterization). So yes, you can trace rays for every pixel of the scene on screen.
Voxelizing instead of generating a BVH tree has its own (and very different) performance/memory trade-offs, but ultimately serves the same purpose. It doesn't directly compute ray-triangle-intersections, but that's never been a pre-requisite for RT.
Then by that definition, do Forza Horizon 3 & 4 have ray tracing as well? Both games also use a form of voxel based GI solution. Furthermore, as you said, voxelization has a very different performance trade off and scene accuracy against ray-geometry intersection. This isn't being stuck in naming semantics when the methods to achieve the end results are very different. You might as well be calling SSAO and HBAO+ the same thing then. You're seriously the first person I've seen calling voxel based GI ray tracing.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365

so yea, connection between Oberon to Ariel is now established.
so gonzalo was really the PS5 all along then.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,668
United Kingdom

so yea, connection between Oberon to Ariel is now established.
so gonzalo was really the PS5 all along then.
How does this prove PS5 is Gonzalo? There's no logical following here. This is the first time we've ever heard of Oberon also.

My question is:

If Oberon = Ariel, Gonzalo = Ariel, Flute = Ariel.... then how do we know these are all the same chip?

Has AMD ever previously used multiple codenames for the same GPU/APU?

As if not, if Ariel is the GPU codename, it's possible the three above are three different APU products with the same GPU basis.... which wouldn't point to a games console (not Sony's at least).
 

MrKlaw

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Oct 25, 2017
7,691
Lol searching my images folder for Colbert’s graphic of CUs, clock speeds, flops.

So would it have to be 36 CU for BC or 40? 40 with 4 off or 44 with 4 off?

Either way I think with 16GB, far better CPUs, and a 9Tflop Navi GPU (and SSD!) next gen will be a revelation. I think people are sleeping on how big an upgrade it could be.
Oh sure. Sounds like a great machine. But I am curious if Sony’s design might have been partly limited by the requirement for BC and their less abstracted approach meaning they don’t have the flexibility MS do in that area so need a little hardware assistance

It feels like a 2GHz (higher than any shipping AMD Navi right now) is way high for a console and especially one that the manufacturer hasn’t always been they greatest around cooling. But did BC force their hand a little? Would they have preferred more CUs?

Or is this all roughly where they were going to land anyway
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
How does this prove PS5 is Gonzalo? There's no logical following here. This is the first time we've ever heard of Oberon also.

My question is:

If Oberon = Ariel, Gonzalo = Ariel, Flute = Ariel.... then how do we know these are all the same chip?

Has AMD ever previously used multiple codenames for the same GPU/APU?

As if not, if Ariel is the GPU codename, it's possible the three above are three different APU products with the same GPU basis.... which wouldn't point to a games console (not Sony's at least).
Sony are using a custom GPU, I don’t see it being shared with other devices. Anything that uses Ariel is most definitely something from Sony.
You are right though that I am confused how does Oberon fit in if Flute is the platform and Gonzalo is the APU, maybe I should ask komachi about this.
But I am sticking by “every product that uses Ariel is PS5 or development kit for it.
It’s possible that flute/Gonzalo is the first version, and Oberon is the second one, as in 1800mhz with 40CU in Gonzalo and 2000MHz with 36CU in Oberon
 

msia2k75

Member
Nov 1, 2017
311
Oh sure. Sounds like a great machine. But I am curious if Sony’s design might have been partly limited by the requirement for BC and their less abstracted approach meaning they don’t have the flexibility MS do in that area so need a little hardware assistance

It feels like a 2GHz (higher than any shipping AMD Navi right now) is way high for a console and especially one that the manufacturer hasn’t always been they greatest around cooling. But did BC force their hand a little? Would they have preferred more CUs?

Or is this all roughly where they were going to land anyway


I don't understand at all the relation of the number of CU and BC?
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
A cut down zen 2 would be 40 mm2. thats a 291mm2 apu with maybe 20 mm2 reserved for i/o stuff. 311mm2 max. smaller than the pro, the base ps4, base xb1 and the xb1x. not bigger.

there is also a pretty good chance that 2.0 ghz pretty much guarantees its on 7nm+ as AMD wasnt comfortable clocking their 7nm desktop GPUs at 2.0 ghz, even the anniversary edition which topped out at 1.98ghz.

and if its on 7nm+, 315mm2 will be the same as 350-360mm2 7nm apu which means it will definitely be more than 40 cus.
If 40cu 1.8ghz is doable on 7nm (simulating gonzalo thread) probably 36cu 2ghz also
 

xICHIGOx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
324
How does this prove PS5 is Gonzalo? There's no logical following here. This is the first time we've ever heard of Oberon also.

My question is:

If Oberon = Ariel, Gonzalo = Ariel, Flute = Ariel.... then how do we know these are all the same chip?

Has AMD ever previously used multiple codenames for the same GPU/APU?

As if not, if Ariel is the GPU codename, it's possible the three above are three different APU products with the same GPU basis.... which wouldn't point to a games console (not Sony's at least).
Oberon is the system codename, gonzalo is the APU, Flute the CPU and Ariel the GPU.
If we know that Oberon is PS5 so it's an almost finished product by now with all the right spec.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,691
I don't understand at all the relation of the number of CU and BC?
PS4 had 18CU. PS4 pro has 36. When running PS4 games on pro, it shuts down half the CUs and lowers the clock speed to effectively turn the GPU into a PS4 one.

This may be down to Sony having less abstraction/separation between software and hardware so games are expecting literally a PS4 GPU and may have issues if they see something ‘strange’

Combine that with the tweet about clock speeds (800 for PS4; 911 for pro; presumably 2000 for PS5?) and that is leading people to speculate that means PS5 also has 36CUs. If it had more then the argument is they wouldn’t need to clock so high (it is quite a lot higher than even the previous 1.8GHz rumour which itself was thought to be on the high side)
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,691
A cut down zen 2 would be 40 mm2. thats a 291mm2 apu with maybe 20 mm2 reserved for i/o stuff. 311mm2 max. smaller than the pro, the base ps4, base xb1 and the xb1x. not bigger.

there is also a pretty good chance that 2.0 ghz pretty much guarantees its on 7nm+ as AMD wasnt comfortable clocking their 7nm desktop GPUs at 2.0 ghz, even the anniversary edition which topped out at 1.98ghz.

and if its on 7nm+, 315mm2 will be the same as 350-360mm2 7nm apu which means it will definitely be more than 40 cus.
That is basing measurements on 5700. We don’t know the impact other features like custom audio processing or RT hardware might have on die size
 

Maverick-Swe

Member
Nov 26, 2017
36
Sweden
Marketing wise it's extremely smart to have a rumour or leak like this considering Sony hasn't barely talked about ps5 at all this year. It moves focus away from Ms and let's everybody talk about ps5. Sony isn't spending a penny on marketing and the hype is already way up.

I think all of this is intentional.
 

Colbert

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,098
Germany
Oberon is the system codename, gonzalo is the APU, Flute the CPU and Ariel the GPU.
If we know that Oberon is PS5 so it's an almost finished product by now with all the right spec.
Flute is the platform name. Komachi himself said that platform code names at AMD are named after instruments. I would consider your interpretation as incorrect.
 
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Nightengale

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Oct 26, 2017
2,277
Malaysia
Marketing wise it's extremely smart to have a rumour or leak like this considering Sony hasn't barely talked about ps5 at all this year. It moves focus away from Ms and let's everybody talk about ps5. Sony isn't spending a penny on marketing and the hype is already way up.

I think all of this is intentional.
There is zero mainstream traction for this rumor due to how niche it is.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
Marketing wise it's extremely smart to have a rumour or leak like this considering Sony hasn't barely talked about ps5 at all this year. It moves focus away from Ms and let's everybody talk about ps5. Sony isn't spending a penny on marketing and the hype is already way up.

I think all of this is intentional.
No, the source of these leaks is AMD fucking up and putting private data for many different chips, not just Ariel and related in a place where komachi managed to access.
He actually held back a lot of the details to not risk themselves, but this isn’t a Sony only leak, Arden is listed there for example.
An intentional leak will be more along the lines of the thurrott articles that we had in late 2018/early 2019.
 

score01

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,013
in general the whole fast but narrrow vs slow and wide:
for fast and narrow solution:
cheaper to produce the APU and smaller in size
in cases of close TF number, the fast but narrow will often beat the slow and wide solution.
higher pixel throughput.
more performance that can be used for the BC boost mode.

slow and wide:
lower TDP, could use that power consumption on other parts of the system, like a higher clocked CPU, or faster memory.
using cheaper cooling solution probably.
Could the potential Fast and Narrow we are seeing from Sony be a by product of their initial 2019 release plan? As in they are too far along their chosen path to redesign hardware so they are now clocking the bejesus out of it in order to get more power?
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,668
United Kingdom
No, the source of these leaks is AMD fucking up and putting private data for many different chips, not just Ariel and related in a place where komachi managed to access.
He actually held back a lot of the details to not risk themselves, but this isn’t a Sony only leak, Arden is listed there for example.
An intentional leak will be more along the lines of the thurrott articles that we had in late 2018/early 2019.
It's more likely that Komachi has a source inside AMD. Which would mean AMD didn't screw up, rather someone is leaking inside info from within AMD.
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
My thought, ps5 with 9.2tf navi in 2020 it would be like ps4 with 2.4tf gcn in 2013, quite impressive + now we have much faster cpu and ssd.
 

Silencerx98

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
615
My thought, ps5 with 9.2tf navi in 2020 it would be like ps4 with 2.4tf gcn in 2013, quite impressive + now we have much faster cpu and ssd.
I'd argue it's even better, since a PS4 with 2.4TF GPU would be around the GTX 660 Ti in performance. This time around, assuming the 9.2TF rumor is true, we have the equivalent of a 5700XT or RTX 2070 on our hands, the latter of which would be a match for the GTX 670 back in 2013.
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
724
Israel
Probably CPU alone or overall.
Expect things like this:

CPU: 4X over X
GPU: 2X over X
RAM: 1.5X over X
SSD: 40X over X
It’s probably more than X2 GPU power actually. Even the 7.5TF RX 5700 (based on gaming clock) is more powerful than Vega64 which is 12.5 GCN TF. A 2Ghz 36CU GPU is more or less comparable to a 15TF GCN GPU which is 2.5X the power of the X GPU. If we get more than 36CU, I wouldn’t even imagined that kind of power in my wildest dreams.
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
It’s probably more than X2 GPU power actually. Even the 7.5TF RX 5700 (based on gaming clock) is more powerful than Vega64 which is 12.5 GCN TF. A 2Ghz 36CU GPU is more or less comparable to a 15TF GCN GPU which is 2.5X the power of the X GPU. If we get more than 36CU, I wouldn’t even imagined that kind of power in my wildest dreams.
Depands how you look, we simplify here that 2x more tflops = 2x more performance but it's rarely true (bigger navi has worse perf/tf ratio).
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
5,365
It’s probably more than X2 GPU power actually. Even the 7.5TF RX 5700 (based on gaming clock) is more powerful than Vega64 which is 12.5 GCN TF. A 2Ghz 36CU GPU is more or less comparable to a 15TF GCN GPU which is 2.5X the power of the X GPU. If we get more than 36CU, I wouldn’t even imagined that kind of power in my wildest dreams.
No, that estimation is wrong.
The Vega 64 TF number is not representative of its performance because it has a major bottleneck due to 64CU usage.
We have IPC tests done to the architecture (by running games on GPUs with the same amount of CU on the same clocks), Navi is 39% faster than Polaris according to that test that would mean 9.2TF on Navi would perform like 12.8TF on Polaris, so basically 3x faster than PS4 Pro’s GPU and 2.13x faster than X1X GPU.
 

xICHIGOx

Member
Oct 27, 2017
324
No, flute is the platform.
What I think, is Gonzalo is devkit v1 with [email protected] and Oberon is new devkit with new cooling with [email protected]
Flute is the platform name. Komachi himself said that platform code names at AMD are named after instruments. I would consider your interpretation as incorrect.
Thx i missed the Flute tweet.
But i don't think that Gonzalo is a V1 Dev Kit and Oberon a new one, IIRC the PS4 dev kit always maintened the codename since the first leak we got.
 

sncvsrtoip

Member
Apr 18, 2019
936
(...)9.2TF on Navi would perform like 12.8TF on Polaris, so basically 3x faster than PS4 Pro’s GPU and 2.13x faster than X1X GPU.
You are also wrong here, because big navi is so inefficient, 9.3tf(on avarage) 5700xt is 1.14x faster than 12.58tf vega64 so it's like 14.34tf vega64, 9.2tf navi would be like 14tf vega 64.
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
724
Israel
No, that estimation is wrong.
The Vega 64 TF number is not representative of its performance because it has a major bottleneck due to 64CU usage.
We have IPC tests done to the architecture (by running games on GPUs with the same amount of CU on the same clocks), Navi is 39% faster than Polaris according to that test that would mean 9.2TF on Navi would perform like 12.8TF on Polaris, so basically 3x faster than PS4 Pro’s GPU and 2.13x faster than X1X GPU.
Can you like to those tests?