Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT6| - Mostly Fan Noise and Hot Air

How much money are you willing to pay for a next generation console?

  • Up to $199

    Votes: 29 1.4%
  • Up to $299

    Votes: 45 2.2%
  • Up to $399

    Votes: 292 14.4%
  • Up to $499

    Votes: 972 47.9%
  • Up to $599

    Votes: 413 20.3%
  • Up to $699

    Votes: 90 4.4%
  • I will pay anything!

    Votes: 190 9.4%

  • Total voters
    2,031

Thera

Member
Feb 28, 2019
1,468
I know the answer will probably be "none", but what are the chances these things will get SSD's bigger than 1TB? Seeing games already ballooning past 100GB on current-gen consoles I can only imagine how insanely big next-gen games will be in terms of file size, and with a 1TB SDD I'm fearing we'll be able to install 5-6 games before it's full.
Cerny said there are a lot of duplicate data ATM, so maybe it won't increased that much.
The real question is how many different AAA or AAAA games you play regulary in a month ?
 

Noctis114

Member
Jan 25, 2019
948
I know the answer will probably be "none", but what are the chances these things will get SSD's bigger than 1TB? Seeing games already ballooning past 100GB on current-gen consoles I can only imagine how insanely big next-gen games will be in terms of file size, and with a 1TB SDD I'm fearing we'll be able to install 5-6 games before it's full.
My tin foil hat guess.

2 SKU's at launch, a 1TB PS5 for $499 and a 2TB PS5 for $549
 
OP
OP
Mecha Meister

Mecha Meister

Member
Oct 25, 2017
796
I'm really curious to see how our current extended HDD's are handled for next-gen systems. Seems like the pipe will definitely be too slow to play games off of them, but what's the solution?

Will Sony and Microsoft let us still use external drives just for backup, with the ability to move games between external and internal as we want to play them? That makes the most sense to me, as I know plenty of people who have 2TB and up external drives right now.

I just have to wonder how long said transfer will take on a game by game basis.
Using it for backups sounds like a cool idea, but I also wonder if external drives will be used for PS4 games? Since PS4 games were built around the constraints of slower storage devices and this would make it easier for people to migrate their game library from the PS4 to the PS5.

We still need to have this SSD stuff cleared up though, such as how it works.
I wonder if the PS5's storage could be expanded with compatible drives and if these compatible SSDs will be proprietary, and if not, what exactly would be a compatible drive? And what kind of interface will they be using?
If it's utilizing an NVME interface, maybe there could be two slots in the machine, one for the original drive and a second one for those that want to add another.

From the patent it sounds like the PS5 may have some-kind of decompression cores that will handle the decompression of data, this is something which is usually handled on the CPU.
From my research regarding the loading speed of games, it appears that this process has now become predominantly CPU-bound, as even NVME SSDs have seen minimal to no improvements in the loading speed of games compared to SATA drives. Some games primarily rely on single-threaded performance to load games, and may not take advantage of the multiple cores available in this loading process due to this.
On the software side, I can foresee developments in this area, where games will take better advantage of the available cores during the loading process.

On the hardware side, I wonder if these decompression cores are embedded on the SSD itself, or if they are separate. If they are the latter, perhaps these improved decompression speeds could benefit other drives as well, this could be beneficial as Sony wouldn't need to have proprietary drives, but there could be more to these drives as mentioned in the patent than just their decompression cores.

I know the answer will probably be "none", but what are the chances these things will get SSD's bigger than 1TB? Seeing games already ballooning past 100GB on current-gen consoles I can only imagine how insanely big next-gen games will be in terms of file size, and with a 1TB SDD I'm fearing we'll be able to install 5-6 games before it's full.
I believe it will be 2TB, but most will say 1TB
I hope it will be 2TB. Some games are getting absolutely huge these days! I know this is different but Red Dead Redemption 2 on PC requires 150GB.

Cerny said there are a lot of duplicate data ATM, so maybe it won't increased that much.
The real question is how many different AAA or AAAA games you play regulary in a month ?
Data duplication is definitely something to be considered!
 
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SeanMN

Member
Oct 28, 2017
813
Great points and well said. I tend to agree with you. I have always been of the impression that sony and MS will be taking very different design directions this time around. With MS going wide and slow and sony going narrow and fast. But still ending up at around the same place.

My reasoning here is that MS will be spending less on things like RAM and storage that whatever sony chooses to employ for those solutions but that will mean they can spend more n the size of their silicon. Sony, on the other hand, won't be willing to spend as much on their silicon cause they are spending more on RAM/SSD so they will have to push that silicon as fast as they can.

Either way, it should be interesting.
Definitely. If insiders are to be believed, they both offer very similar performance, yet with differences in configurations. I think that's interesting, and it'll be neat to see how different games or game engines perform on each platform.

Regarding RAM, I could see PS5 going with a 256 bus, which would keep the die small, reduce the number of memory chips needed (cost saving), and lower power consumption (which could be refocused on GPU clocks) but then go for more expensive 16 gbps chips to help with the bandwidth (for 512 GB/s) vs the 14 gbps chips identified for Scarlett (in the teaser) which is thought to have a 320 bit bus, for 560 GB/s. It'd have slightly less bandwidth overall (than a 320 bit setup), but many advantages as well, which could very well be worth it. I think the capability of the SSD will help to reduce the need for large RAM capacity.
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
4,488
So there was another bits of news. The full reveal will be next year, so RIP any 25th anniversary hopes.
As I thought.

I’ve predicted an actual reveal of PS5 will be sometime in Q1 2020 and not before that.

So, anywhere from January to March.

For historical comparison:

The PS-X / PS1 tech reveal was sometime between March—July in 1994. Console itself, not before May 1994.

PS2 tech reveal was early March, 1999 in Tokyo.
Console itself September 1999.

PS3 tech reveal was June 2005 in LA at E3.

PS4 tech reveal was late February, 2013 in NYC.
Console itself at E3 in June.

PS4 Pro reveal was September 2016.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
2,977
Florida

Cameras on the psvr2 and the controller, this matches what ruthenic cookie said
I want all of the Kinect FBI wiretapping conspiracy theorists to bring that same energy.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,479
I hope it will be 2TB. Some games are getting absolutely huge these days! I know this is different but Red Dead Redemption 2 on PC requires 150GB.
Of course we need at least 2 TB harddrive and games gonna be over 100 GB next-gen. The problem is why did Sony use an already old drive like the UHD Bluray (that I hoped they woudl use for PS4 or at least PS4 Pro like XB1S and XB O X). No way this gonna be enough for next-gen and we will soon start seeing games in 2 discs for 200 GB. What happened to HVD? This is a next-gen console and they should have invested in something new and more capable tbh.
 

msia2k75

Member
Nov 1, 2017
358
Of course we need at least 2 TB harddrive and games gonna be over 100 GB next-gen. The problem is why did Sony use an already old drive like the UHD Bluray (that I hoped they woudl use for PS4 or at least PS4 Pro like XB1S and XB O X). No way this gonna be enough for next-gen and we will soon start seeing games in 2 discs for 200 GB. What happened to HVD? This is a next-gen console and they should have invested in something new and more capable tbh.
Because no one cares about developing a new optical format anymore.
 

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,288
As someone who loves reading all about next generation console technology and will definitely be getting an Xbox Scarlett at launch I must admit that it is a little bit of cold water on the party to read just straight factual statements such as this in the IGN article about PlayStation 5 CPU confirmation to be 8 cores/16 threads Zen2: "This brings it in line with AMD's current mid-tier Ryzen 7 processors."

I realize that this is how consoles have always been in terms of PC being ahead in raw power be it the CPU or GPU, but I am definitely strongly considering getting a Scarlett at launch since I still prefer couch gaming in front of my big TV and then getting a PC build about a year after the consoles launch to be able to also play Xbox exclusives natively on PC with some amped up visuals and such if I choose to at times. I think that getting a taste of ray tracing at the level that both consoles will actually be capable of (will no doubt be limitations compared to what Nvidia RTX can do) will probably have me wanting the option to see that in action much better with a GPU in holiday 2021 for example.
 

androvsky

Member
Oct 27, 2017
852
Yeah. PlayStation 5 was originally planned to come out next month. The software engineering needed to get BC 101% right was not progressing as fast as they needed.

It is my belief that this is one of (but not the only) reasons Sony delayed PlayStation 5 to holiday 2020.

They made this change in 2017.
It's sounding like PS1/2/3 BC aren't happening if they're spending massive efforts on the PS4 library, is that a reasonable assumption? Or is there a chance that massive software engineering for BC includes the older consoles?
 

Ruslnis

Member
Feb 26, 2018
2,243
Yeah. PlayStation 5 was originally planned to come out next month. The software engineering needed to get BC 101% right was not progressing as fast as they needed.

It is my belief that this is one of (but not the only) reasons Sony delayed PlayStation 5 to holiday 2020.

They made this change in 2017.
Damn. Thanks for the info
Team 2019 were right....
Probably no ps3/2/1 BC if it took them more time for ps4 BC
 

Gumbercules

Member
Aug 12, 2019
2
Data duplication is definitely something to be considered!
Also consider the audio files. Games are coming with audio files for all languages regardless of region. With the latest news about modular installation of games (for example only downloading single player or only multiplayer), I think we will see the same modular installations options applied to audio files for other languages.
 

degauss

Member
Oct 28, 2017
994
Of course we need at least 2 TB harddrive and games gonna be over 100 GB next-gen. The problem is why did Sony use an already old drive like the UHD Bluray (that I hoped they woudl use for PS4 or at least PS4 Pro like XB1S and XB O X). No way this gonna be enough for next-gen and we will soon start seeing games in 2 discs for 200 GB. What happened to HVD? This is a next-gen console and they should have invested in something new and more capable tbh.
Using some fancy almost unheard of and unused cutting edge disc format in an age where most people buy digital (and even if they don't, the absolute worst case scenario is swapping a disc once during install)... would be bad.
 

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,288
I am not saying that those die space rumors are true or anything, but it did remind me that Xbox said at E3 that Scarlett forms their future in both the console and cloud. So it is possible that they went "slower and wider" as some have suggested here to accommodate some additional silicon for cloud related processing. An example of one crazy use here would be local hardware processing ray tracing at whatever fidelity is possible, yet providing an option if connected to the internet to apply some additional compute power from the cloud Scarlett hardware to provide more advanced ray tracing fidelity to your game experience. I think that this dual target hardware story is still yet to be told.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
1,741
St Kitts
Definitely. If insiders are to be believed, they both offer very similar performance, yet with differences in configurations. I think that's interesting, and it'll be neat to see how different games or game engines perform on each platform.

Regarding RAM, I could see PS5 going with a 256 bus, which would keep the die small, reduce the number of memory chips needed (cost saving), and lower power consumption (which could be refocused on GPU clocks) but then go for more expensive 16 gbps chips to help with the bandwidth (for 512 GB/s) vs the 14 gbps chips identified for Scarlett (in the teaser) which is thought to have a 320 bit bus, for 560 GB/s. It'd have slightly less bandwidth overall (than a 320 bit setup), but many advantages as well, which could very well be worth it. I think the capability of the SSD will help to reduce the need for large RAM capacity.
This may sound crazy, but I am actually leaning towards sony going with HBM3 now. 20GB of the stuff on Two 5-hi stacks netting in around 700GB/s of bandwidth. It would also use less power, generate less heat and most importantly take up significantly less space on the chip for its mem controllers.
As someone who loves reading all about next generation console technology and will definitely be getting an Xbox Scarlett at launch I must admit that it is a little bit of cold water on the party to read just straight factual statements such as this in the IGN article about PlayStation 5 CPU confirmation to be 8 cores/16 threads Zen2: "This brings it in line with AMD's current mid-tier Ryzen 7 processors."

I realize that this is how consoles have always been in terms of PC being ahead in raw power be it the CPU or GPU, but I am definitely strongly considering getting a Scarlett at launch since I still prefer couch gaming in front of my big TV and then getting a PC build about a year after the consoles launch to be able to also play Xbox exclusives natively on PC with some amped up visuals and such if I choose to at times. I think that getting a taste of ray tracing at the level that both consoles will actually be capable of (will no doubt be limitations compared to what Nvidia RTX can do) will probably have me wanting the option to see that in action much better with a GPU in holiday 2021 for example.
I don't know what that guy was saying... but the Ryzen 7 isn't a mid-range CPU. It's a performance class CPU. The only thing above it are the enthusiast-class CPUs. The midrange/mainstream CPUs are the Ryen 5 range of CPUs.

I've long since learned that a lot of the people working at these publications and writing stuff up don't really know what they are talking about.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,479
So is it all but confirmed for Ryzen 7?
can you believe that? Can you imagine the games we are getting?
The problem is I can't imagine how they gonna deal with BC with 16 threads? They gonna lower the clock speed to the PS4 and PS4 Pro clock speed for the GPU but what about the CPU? They gonan downclock the clock speed for the CPU when running PS4 games and they gonna disable half of the threads for that? It seems they can't do this automatically unlike the jump from PS4 to PS4 Pro which was automatic even in boost mdoe sicne both use same architecture. Now they have to verify every game working fine with PS5 hardware. No wonder it gonna take them so long to be sure everything works fine.
 
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BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
2,884
1 🍪 for you. Buuut it sort of depends on when in 2017 the decision was made vs. when you made your proclamation. We may have to go to the replay booth!
Most here were team 2019 when Matt posted 'broken clocks and all that' after Pachter said PS5 was coming in 2019 in mid-2017.

I'm still confused about whether BC is baked into the hardware as the Wired articles seem to indicate or if it is more software based as Klee describes it.

Something funky is going on with it it seems.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,479
This may sound crazy, but I am actually leaning towards sony going with HBM3 now. 20GB of the stuff on Two 5-hi stacks netting in around 700GB/s of bandwidth. It would also use less power, generate less heat and most importantly take up significantly less space on the chip for its mem controllers.
This is not crazy at all. Sony still avoding to disclose the type of RAM they gonna use even at this current time after 2 reveals (textual ones) si hint they are undecided or not ready to talk about RAM tyme because maybe they are still discussing the terms with AMD or waiting for them to finalize it or maybe trying their own implementation with different type of VRAM. If the rumors about PS5 die size being smaller and also the emission of less heat then this is thanks to this high amount of fast stacked memory aka HBM3. ANythign is possible till we get the final specs, especially if they are insisting of having the edge this gen too.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,479
Official minimu gpu for rdr2: Nvidia GeForce GTX 770 2GB ;)
That is because RDR2 is well optimised for every platform and runs much better than GTA5 and many other games. Rockstar did an amazing job with this game. I bet their next-gen game gonna look phenomenal thansk to the high end hardwares. I hope it won't take 7 yearsago for them to make it.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,581
Somewhere South
I'm still confused about whether BC is baked into the hardware as the Wired articles seem to indicate or if it is more software based as Klee describes it. Something funky is going on with it it seems.
Wild guess is that there's a "compatibility mode" where the hardware switches to a configuration (frequencies, latencies, cache sizes, etc) that is closer to how the PS4/Pro worked. But since this ISN'T exactly the same hardware, this is bound to have some degree of inaccuracy, so they're likely working on mitigating the issue to get the most accurate execution environment.

So, not quite software-based emulation, yet not quite "packing the same ol' tech fire-and-forget" BC either. Hardware-based emulation, if you will :D
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,479
Context was that DrKeo thought 750ti will perform better than ps4 in rdr2 and I wasn't so sure and now we know that gtx770 is minimum for rdr2 pc
I don't think the minimum config will perform as good as PS4, let alone better, it's just that the consoles got very optimised for the game cus it was targeted for them for thsoe specific hardwares, PCs have different configs and they can't optimise them all obviously but anyway it is already great to see it run on lwo end PCs even in minimum.
 

Thera

Member
Feb 28, 2019
1,468
The problem is I can't imagine how they gonna deal with BC with 16 threads? They gonna lower the clock speed to the PS4 and PS4 Pro clock speed for the GPU but what about the CPU? They gonan downclock the clock speed for the CPU when running PS4 games and they gonna disable half of the threads for that? It seems they can't do this automatically unlike the jump from PS4 to PS4 Pro which was automatic even in boost mdoe sicne both use same architecture. Now they have to verify every game workign fine with PS5 hardware. No wonder it gonna take them so long to be sure everythign works fine.
They can do that with virtualisation.
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
2,884
Wild guess is that there's a "compatibility mode" where the hardware switches to a configuration (frequencies, latencies, cache sizes, etc) that is closer to how the PS4/Pro worked. But since this ISN'T exactly the same hardware, this is bound to have some degree of inaccuracy, so they're likely working on mitigating the issue to get the most accurate execution environment.

So, not quite software-based emulation, yet not quite "packing the same ol' tech fire-and-forget" BC either.
I guess it must be some sort of hybrid solution but it isn't the way I would have planned it! That Komachi tweet showing 3 modes seemed so elegant....

I hope Richard Leadbetter gets to talk to Mark Cerny again about PS5 and do a deep technical dive into how BC works.
 

Detective

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,630
The problem is I can't imagine how they gonna deal with BC with 16 threads? They gonna lower the clock speed to the PS4 and PS4 Pro clock speed for the GPU but what about the CPU? They gonan downclock the clock speed for the CPU when running PS4 games and they gonna disable half of the threads for that? It seems they can't do this automatically unlike the jump from PS4 to PS4 Pro which was automatic even in boost mdoe sicne both use same architecture. Now they have to verify every game workign fine with PS5 hardware. No wonder it gonna take them so long to be sure everythign works fine.
Am looking forward the new games. Not BC.
It’s gonna be lit!
 

thevid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
423
Oct 27, 2017
3,581
Somewhere South
I guess it must be some sort of hybrid solution but it isn't the way I would have planned it! That Komachi tweet showing 3 modes seemed so elegant....
That's the thing, frequency is just one part of the equation. You can have code running at the exact same frequency, but with other stuff like cache sizes, internal latencies, code branching prediction behaving differently, you get different results from what you've expected. That can cause issues.

There's no 100% elegant way to do BC across different architectures without relying on code that is very abstracted (and, thus, leaves a lot of perf on the table).
 

Tonky

Member
Aug 26, 2019
1,056
As I thought.

I’ve predicted an actual reveal of PS5 will be sometime in Q1 2020 and not before that.

So, anywhere from January to March.

For historical comparison:

The PS-X / PS1 tech reveal was sometime between March—July in 1994. Console itself, not before May 1994.

PS2 tech reveal was early March, 1999 in Tokyo.
Console itself September 1999.

PS3 tech reveal was June 2005 in LA at E3.

PS4 tech reveal was late February, 2013 in NYC.
Console itself at E3 in June.

PS4 Pro reveal was September 2016.
I personally expect it in April. 1 year from the original Wired article, 6 months from the second Wired article.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,977
Florida
Well, I guess you didn't need to use it if you didn't want your console to function.


They removed the Kinect requirement in August. Seriously, just google "Kinect mandatory." Or bing it. Whatever.
Right. About 3 months before the console launched. It was a Mattrick hubris special for sure.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,414
As someone who loves reading all about next generation console technology and will definitely be getting an Xbox Scarlett at launch I must admit that it is a little bit of cold water on the party to read just straight factual statements such as this in the IGN article about PlayStation 5 CPU confirmation to be 8 cores/16 threads Zen2: "This brings it in line with AMD's current mid-tier Ryzen 7 processors."

I realize that this is how consoles have always been in terms of PC being ahead in raw power be it the CPU or GPU, but I am definitely strongly considering getting a Scarlett at launch since I still prefer couch gaming in front of my big TV and then getting a PC build about a year after the consoles launch to be able to also play Xbox exclusives natively on PC with some amped up visuals and such if I choose to at times. I think that getting a taste of ray tracing at the level that both consoles will actually be capable of (will no doubt be limitations compared to what Nvidia RTX can do) will probably have me wanting the option to see that in action much better with a GPU in holiday 2021 for example.
this is AMD's cheapest 8 core 16 thread CPU.


$329. Higher Clocks and more cache of course, but you are getting something very close to a $329 CPU in a $499 console.

you are likely going to get a high end $399 to $499 AMD GPU along with a $150-200 SSD all in a $499 console. Your pc will need to be much stronger than in the past. You will likely need the 12 core 24 thread CPU to run current gen games at 60 fps. Probably even 16 core 32 thread AMD CPUs that are currently not even in the market. The Nvidia GPUs needed will be even more expensive.

i wouldnt be surprised if a 4k 60 fps pc capable of running next gen games is going to cost much much more next gen. it cost me $1,400 earlier this year to run current gen games at native 4k 60 fps.
 

Locuza

Member
Mar 6, 2018
273
It's and x86 CPU. It'll run the same code written for jaguar natively... but at like 4x the perf... so down-clocking for BC lets them match Jaguar perf. in BC mode.
Sony has a patent made by Mark Cerni about matching CPU specs in order to have perfect BC. The idea is that if you disable everything that doesn't exist in Jaguar and shut/slow down everything that does exist to Jaguar speed/volume (like cache or clock speed), you will get the same results. Because they are both X86, if you match the instruction set and spec, in theory, you should get the same output which will make it a 1:1 emulation.

If the PS5 uses this patent, and Mark Cerny filed it so it' 99.99% in the PS5, then the PS5 CPU will have to be able to run at 1.6Ghz (for PS4 emulation) and 2.13Ghz (for pro emulation).

It will obviously also have "boost mode" where the CPU will boost back to its original ~3Ghz speed, but thats only boosts mode which is off by default on PS4 and you get a warning when you turn it on. Boost mode doesn't have to work perfectly, some games can break when it's on, but regular BC does have to work perfectly.
Since Zen2 and Jaguar and also RDNA and GCN are so vastly different in how they execute and how long the latency for multiple instructions are, it's impossible to get 1:1 emulation.
The patent from Cerny also says that but the important problem to solve is to have the new system behave close enough to the old system to avoid errors.
There are mechanism to stall execution and together with other operating parameters you might end up with for example 1.2 Ghz CPU clock for PS4 BC.
 

Sams88

Member
Oct 9, 2019
28
Except we know more about PS5......