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How much money are you willing to pay for a next generation console?

  • Up to $199

    Votes: 33 1.5%
  • Up to $299

    Votes: 48 2.2%
  • Up to $399

    Votes: 318 14.4%
  • Up to $499

    Votes: 1,060 48.0%
  • Up to $599

    Votes: 449 20.3%
  • Up to $699

    Votes: 100 4.5%
  • I will pay anything!

    Votes: 202 9.1%

  • Total voters
    2,210
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Colbert's Next Gen Predictions
  • Deleted member 12635

    User requested account closure
    Banned
    Oct 27, 2017
    6,198
    Germany
    THIS POST GETS UPDATED REGULARLY

    New thread - old habits

    I repost my last recent prediction - bookmark it as I will update this prediction every once in a while ...

    The prediction:

    CXr0MG0.png

    hO7zmQn.png


    Remarks/Assumptions:
    • Clock speeds derived from TBP of Navi PC GPUs
    • RDNA Cache architecture allows for lower VRAM bandwidth
    • Both platform holders have the chance to wear the performance crown
    • Expecting an increase in game performance at the same computational power (TFs) just not by the number itself by at least 15%

    The signature meme of my prediction!
    V1KwXvx.gif

    GIF made by Chris Metal

    Change Log:
    Rev 10.5: Increased Upper Bound of clocks for The Realist and The Dream due to some benchmarks with a RX5700XT
    Rev 10.4: Another stealth update. Formatting and Ranks for my predictions (Gold, Silver, Bronze).
    Rev 10.3: Stealth update. Introduce clock range for each SOC layout. Results in a range of peak performances of computational power
    Rev 10.2: Added SOC die size estimations
    Rev 10.1: Lowered spec for "The Bottom", now all layouts have deactivated WGPs
    Rev 10.0: Lockhart is gone, forever, ... based on more than one report
    Rev 9.3: Reworked Lockhart prediction based on NAVI 10 scheme
    Rev 9.2: DF video happened ;) New prediction layers: The Bottom Line, The Hope, The Dream
    Rev 9.1: Changed lower bound to a different setup (Setup A) with a lower CU count but higher clocks. Upper bound still Setup B (16-06-2019)
    Rev 9.0: Incorporated E3 Info from MS, AMD and some secret sauce from my side that will not be disclosed (14-06-2019)
    Rev 8.2: Lower clock for the lower bounds . (27-05-2019)
    Rev 8.1: Eliminate the difference between PS5/Anaconda but having 2 tier prediction for those consoles
    Rev 8: New NAVI architecture makes CUs obsolete. Consolidated to ECC vote as more likely now after Computex info (27-05-2019)
    Rev 7.1: Included the Endless Cycle Committee prediction vote into the table after a RfC (25-05-2019)
    Rev 7: Completely changed prediction scheme: Lower and Upper bounds provide the range I expect the consoles will land (16-05-2019)
    Rev 6.1: Changed from Baseline to Ballpark, Modified specs based on new information available to me
    Rev 6: Consolidated to 1 baseline per console, adjusted specs & pricing for all consoles
    Rev 5: Added 3rd tier to adapt on AdoredTV table of Navi GPUs
    Rev. 4.3: SSD for Lockhart, Lockhart now $399 instead of $349
    Rev. 4.2: Increased Memory clock instead of 448Gbps,
     
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    Colbert's HDD vs SSD vs NVME Speed Comparison: Part 3
  • Deleted member 12635

    User requested account closure
    Banned
    Oct 27, 2017
    6,198
    Germany
    👁️‍🗨️ About SSDs Part 3

    Important disclaimer:

    The tests I do are synthetic, means, there is no real world application/game tested. Which is important because I am not claiming those results will materialize in the same magnitude on consoles. But what you see is an indication of improvements possible by SSD/NVMe (Best Case).

    Testsystem:
    Motherboard: MSI B450 Tomahawk
    CPU: Ryzen 2700X @ 3700 Mhz UV Offset -0.1V
    Memory: 2x16GB Vengenace LPX DDR4 @ 3000 Mhz 16-17-17-35 (CL-RCD-RP-RAS)
    GPU: MSI RX Vega 56 Airboost OC watercooled by a Eiswolf GPX Pro 120 UV 975mV @ 1550 Mhz, VMEM 8GB HBM2 @ 960Mhz
    Disk drives:
    NVMe Samsung EVO 970 500GB (4x PCIe Gen 3)
    SSD SanDisk Ultra 2TB (SATA3)
    HDD Seagate Barracuda 4TB 7200rpm (SATA3)

    After my testing I made in the last OTs I noticed I own another tool (AIDA64) where I can benchmark disk drives in my system.
    One interesting test I was not able to do until now was the average access time of each disk type.
    So I ran all the necessary tests with AIDA64 to get those information.
    Here are the results:

    Results:
    Average Read Access Times:
    • HDD: 16.1 ms
    • SSD: 0.09 ms
    • NVMe: 0.05ms
    40Fu89k.png


    Analysis:
    1. NVMe has 322 times faster access times than the tested HDD (that HDD should be still better than what you get with any current gen console)
    2. SSD has 179 times faster access times than the tested HDD
    3. NVM2 has 1.8 times faster access times than the tested SSD
    Conclusion:
    The results are hardening my impression that SSDs provide already a massive jump in reducing latency!

    FAQ:
    Q: What do those numbers tell me when it comes to consoles?
    A: For games you want to improve latency (see above) and read speed with different access patterns (see below Tests 1 & 2).
    • Sequential Access Pattern: Initial load of a game, Reload of big levels. In such a scenario NVMe play out their biggest advantage which is speed (see Test 1 and 2).
    • Random Access Pattern: Streaming when in-game between levels or in a level where you have fast movement in a given terrain. The bigger the block size your storage is organized in, the bigger the advantage of NVMes over SSDs (see Test 2)

    Edit:
    Maybe it is a better idea to re-post my other tests here ... (edited out the links)

    About SSDs Part 1

    In the below picture you see 3 benchmarks for each type of storage you can use in a console except Intel Optane. The tests were performed on my own PC. While the sizes of the mediums differ it will give you still an idea what would be a possible realistic speed estimation.

    I only talk about reading operations!

    pNA6PPm.png


    If someone is not familiar with this kind of benchmark I now do some explaining what the 4 tests are about
    The first test is a sequential read of 1GB of data with 32 I/O queues by 1 thread (not a valid use case for streaming data to a game, but initial loading)
    The second test is a random reads of 4KB data objects from a 1GB data file with 8 I/O queues done by 8 threads (not likely in a console because of the 8 threads)
    The third test is random reads of 4KB data objects from a 1GB data file with 32 I/O queues done by 1 thread (a typical console use case)
    The fourth test is random reads of 4KB data objects from a 1GB data file with 1 I/O queue done by 1 thread (a worst case scenario)

    Analysis:

    A single non-RAID HDD is 50 times worse than any decent SATA3 SSD in random access data read for everything other than sequential read which is not your typical in game streaming use case. So any SSD will be already a huge jump in streaming-to-game capabilities even not optimized! And that is just the worst case scenario. test pattern 3 looks even better where we see 100 times the performance. I repeat: 100 times the performance on the most common access pattern you will find on any system.
    test pattern 1 is showing a 6.4 times increase in speed in favor for the NVMe. The open question is how often you will see that pattern with your games other than initial loading or copying/moving data from drive a to drive b ...
    In test pattern 2 you see a difference by still 4.35 times but I ask if this a valid use case for consoles because you run 8 dedicated threads while you have to maintain your frame rate. Maybe someone actually have deeper knowledge there can shed some led on it....
    In test pattern 3 the NVMe advantage is reduced to a merely 37% on a pattern which is normally your bread and butter access pattern on a PC and maybe on a console too.
    In test pattern 4 which is the worst case scenario my NVMe is just 22.5% better than a SATA3 SSD.

    Conclusion:

    I am aware that a real world access pattern would be a mix of those tested access patterns but the differences in speed between PC SSDs is not as high if you leave the roam of best case scenarios. But there is also a high chance that a next gen console game optimized for SSD speeds would actually target nearer to the worst case than to the best case to be able to be on-premise almost 100%.

    About SSDs Part 2

    My first speed test for drives wasn't addressing bigger data block sizes (less blocks in an allocation table) I was looking for a tool that was able to allow me to alter those block sizes for the speed tests.

    I now was able to run a couple of tests with the same NVMe, SSD and HDD with different block size parameters and you can see the results in the below picture:

    Testmethod:
    Random Reads with 1 thread and 1 queue from a 1GB file!

    n0Ow5nV.png


    You can see that a normal SSD stagnates way earlier in its speed and a SSD is 2.4 times faster than my HDD at a maximum.
    Different story with a NVMe. There is already a triple the performance beginning with a 32KB block size (3.6 times faster than my HDD). This goes up to 12.7 times faster than my HDD at a 2MB block size.

    While the very big block sizes are good for the speed of the system, the bigger they are the more space will allocated for smaller files. Which means you need to find a balance between wasting storage space and speed.

    Conclusion:
    To reach gains like showed in the PS5 demo you will probably need a storage implementation around 2000 MB/s. For me personally I would see the sweet spot of a data block at 256KB without knowing the typical files sizes on a console.
     
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    DualShock 5 Patent
  • gofreak

    Member
    Oct 26, 2017
    7,736
    Hmm. Dualshock 5 related? Two patents filed this year. They seem to describe the use of an actuator to physically move triggers around for haptic feedback to the user.


    This pic seems to show the triggers tilting/twisting inwards towards each other, for example:

    3hMxfKo.png


    AFAIK Microsoft has been researching similar things for triggers - so perhaps that'll be something we can expect as standard in controllers next-gen.
     
    Kleegamefan's industry roots verified by ZhugeEX
  • ZhugeEX

    Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
    Verified
    Oct 24, 2017
    3,099
    Wanted to answer some general questions about what I saw.

    Game was not shown behind closed doors at e3

    Really early

    Running on PS5

    I didn't see Scarlett so I can't directly compare

    Framerate wasn't always smooth....seemed to be in the 20-30fps range

    Open world and the scope was unbelievable. Never seen anything like it...far beyond Witcher/BOTW/HZD

    Even so, close up details were beyond anything I have seen before

    Ray Traced reflections....looks really impressive

    Dynamic destructable environments...this game is just WTF

    When I asked him about the SSD, he got visably nervous. Didn't want to talk about it at all.

    As good as it looks, I get the feeling this isn't a launch game, really early.

    That's all I can think of for now.. I should be able to get more information when I go back in October. I will see if I can share anything else at that time.

    Just a quick note to say that we were able to verify the poster above as someone who worked in the industry and would be able to access certain levels of information.

    That being said, it's near impossible to verify whether the above description is true or not, so please keep in mind that we can't verify whether all the information in each post is correct, just the details i posted above.
     
    Kleegamefan - Next Generation Console Information
  • OP
    OP
    Mecha Meister

    Mecha Meister

    Next-Gen Guru
    Member
    Oct 25, 2017
    2,804
    United Kingdom
    Kleegamefan is a member who has industry roots, and has been verified by ZhugeEX. However, they were unable to verify the information they revealed in this thread. I've decided to make this post to house the information regarding the next generation consoles that they appear to have come across.

    It would be wise to exercise caution regarding the information they have revealed in this thread, however Kleegamefan appears to be a person who strongly values their credibility.

    Perhaps try to take them with an open mind and please refrain from being hostile towards them. It's okay to question the validity of the information but keep in mind that they can't really prove any of this stuff as it could get themselves and their sources in trouble, which we don't want to do at all.

    Kleegamefan has said some fascinating things that I think people will be interested in reading about, so I have quoted some of their posts below:

    The way it was explained to me, and keep in mind this is third hand information, PlayStation 4 BC was always planned but the software engineering needed to get this right took a lot longer than expected.
    My personal INTERPRETATION is that SIE planned for their customers to easily migrate from base PS4 platform to future PS platforms (including PRO).

    This is during the planning stage before PlayStation 4 launch.

    After PS4 launch came the actual development and implementation stage (for BC)and this stage took longer than expected, hence the now late 2020 launch.

    So the magic question I have is: once Sony committed to delay the product, did they exploit this extra time to perform any meaningful architectural design changes?

    The answer to that question is what I really want to know :(
    Wanted to answer some general questions about what I saw.

    Game was not shown behind closed doors at e3

    Really early

    Running on PS5

    I didn't see Scarlett so I can't directly compare

    Framerate wasn't always smooth....seemed to be in the 20-30fps range

    Open world and the scope was unbelievable. Never seen anything like it...far beyond Witcher/BOTW/HZD

    Even so, close up details were beyond anything I have seen before

    Ray Traced reflections....looks really impressive

    Dynamic destructable environments...this game is just WTF

    When I asked him about the SSD, he got visably nervous. Didn't want to talk about it at all.

    As good as it looks, I get the feeling this isn't a launch game, really early.

    That's all I can think of for now.. I should be able to get more information when I go back in October. I will see if I can share anything else at that time.
    World detail of The Order 1886+miles long draw distance+fully dynamic world destruction + Ray Traced reflections.


    It didn't look very polished like those nVidia/Unreal/Unity demos but at the same time beyond and I could imagine running on an Xbox One X or Pro

    So yeah, not like a current game, but not like a GDC demo either. You would have to see it yourself to understand because I can't quite articulate it properly because I can't compare it to anything else.
    Just a quick note to say that we were able to verify the poster above as someone who worked in the industry and would be able to access certain levels of information.

    That being said, it's near impossible to verify whether the above description is true or not, so please keep in mind that we can't verify whether all the information in each post is correct, just the details i posted above.
    Thank you so very much ZhugeEX. I really appreciate it.

    To all.

    There is no way I can prove to you whether or not I am full of shit or not. All of this information is from memory.

    If you don't believe at all, or prefer to take any "insider talk" as take it or leave it rumor, I fully understand and respect that...how could I not?

    That said, my personal integrity is a BIG DEAL to me and there are specific reasons for this....

    There was a LOT of drama during the early Gamefan days and, without going into too many details, there were a lot of lies spread about me which followed me throughout my career and ultimately led to me removing myself from the gaming industry, which still pains me to this day, decades later.

    And because of that, I can neither lie to myself or others. Credibility is so very important because it can be taken away from you in a blink of an eye...

    That said there are 3 things vital to me:

    My love of my fellow man/women
    My love of games
    My integrity

    In the end, have no fear of "running me off" because no matter what you say or do to me I will still love you all.

    I have been a gamer since 1977

    You are my people.
    So here is the deal.

    I specifically asked about general Teraflop performance about Scarlett and PS5.

    He said " from what I know, both final console should have double digits TF."

    .....keep in mind, this conversation was in late June, after AMD already outlined 5700 and 5700xt were shipping July 7th.....

    So then I specifically said."well that would mean greater performance than the new AMD Navi GPUs right?"

    ....he nodded his head yes!

    Now don't shoot me.....I'm just the relay guy... I am not sure how they can ship that much power in a console form factor/price...

    Don't @me
    Oh forgot to add...all these crazy graphics were on Unreal Engine
    That I don't know.....perhaps it was there own plug-in solution...idk...
    A long time friend of mine, who is a developer showed me an early next gen game.
    I'm just saying compared to GCN, the RDNA architecture is much more efficient per clock but the downside is it yields lower TF numbers.

    People will inevitably look at the final numbers and say "well it's not THAT much better than an Xbox One X" and I'm saying that is the wrong way to look at the TF numbers.
    IIRC, launch games for both systems are targeted for Holiday 2020

    PS5 and Xbox Scarlett will launch together again.....possibly in the same month like last time.
    No, actually I didn't. He played me a video of the demo off a USB drive.
    No it was real time. It was an internal studio milestone video.
    Look guys I don't know what else to say. I saw some cool stuff that I thought I would share. Yes there's some additional sensitive stuff that I can't share as well. There is no way I can yet prove anything yet without getting my source in trouble. You may view that as convenient,. You may not. No need for any hostility. I don't think I deserve that but whatever.

    If I disrupted the conversation in any way,I am very sorry..

    I am not a liar though....

    Update:

    The performance difference between the PS5 and Scarlett Part 1


    In terms of performance, they are essentially the same
    No, they are not that far apart.
    Yeah.

    Edit: Don't underestimate Microsoft Next-gen. In my opinion, they will have a very compelling gaming solution with Cloud Gaming and Scarlett along with their new studio acquisitions.

    Gotta go to work, I will talk later.

    PlayStation 5 backwards compatibility

    From what I understand, this is actually a big big deal to them and took years to get right.
    Yeah. PlayStation 5 was originally planned to come out next month. The software engineering needed to get BC 101% right was not progressing as fast as they needed.

    It is my belief that this is one of (but not the only) reasons Sony delayed PlayStation 5 to holiday 2020.

    They made this change in 2017.

    Impressions of a Next Generation Game targeting PC and Next Generation Consoles
    The demo I saw had the very best real time graphics I've ever seen. And what I mean by that is it looked like a real game you can play.

    Not some super polished UE4 or Unity technical demo that you would see at gdc.

    To me, there was no mistaking this for a current generation on PC or console.

    To be clear, in terms of scope, lighting and environment dynamics, RDR2 or TLOU2 aren't even in the same time zone as this.

    and yeah, it kinda was like a Shadowfall moment to me in that it seemed totally different from what I've been used to in the previous generation.

    Now granted, Framerate was maybe 25 to 30-ish and it was early, early,early. But I actually said out loud WTF when I first saw it.

    Hugely impressive.
    One thing I found really interesting was the quality of the shadows. I especially noticed there were some approx 2-3ft high bushes. When they were swaying in the wind they were casting moving shadows with fucking PERFECT detail. No shimmering or stairstepping at all.

    And I am talking about a bush with maybe 75-100 branches and 100s of leaves on it!
    Casting. Perfect.Fucking. Shadows.

    Keep in mind this was just a random, whateverthefuck bush!

    Also

    The overall picture quality was astoundingly solid....like it used some super duper AA.

    The game is full 2160p, but again, has no shimmering whatsoever. Just a really solid resolve to the graphics.

    I'm sorry I can't articulate all this better but it's really hard to explain for some reason.

    Games Vs Specs
    In the end, I really think that you guys will be way more impressed by the games than the specs.

    I was.

    The Next Generation game that Klee saw was the biggest open world they had ever seen in terms of scope.


    Image Quality

    No. It's not quite like CGI, but it way better than current stuff. I so hope that it shows up in a reveal so you can see it.

    I've only seen a multiplatform game running on PS5 development hardware. That said, it should look exactly the same on Xbox Scarlett

    Yeah. It's in the ballpark of that AC Unity flyover for sure.
    The game was running on a Development kit

    It was running on Navi-based hardware. So a current for the time PS5 development kit.(June 2019).

    The performance difference between the PS5 and Scarlett Part 2
    Honestly, and this is the last thing I will say about it, but I think some people are going to be disappointed at how similar PS5 and Scarlett hardware are.

    It's my belief ( As in I don't really know) that the biggest division will be Exclusive games, UI and services .
    . There are at least two more major revisions coming but I don't know the exact details of what that entails

    How this Next Gen game compares to Control on PC with RTX (Ray tracing)

    Control doesn't come close

    Not much talk of SSD benefits
    SSD was transparent enough I didn't notice it.

    I will say there was such a huge, huge diverse amount of unique assets that I am guessing it was that way because of the SSD?

    I cannot be sure because he absolutely, positively didn't want to talk about the SSD in any way whatsoever.

    The performance difference between the PS5 and Scarlett Part 3 - Currently, the PS5 is allegedly slightly more powerful than Xbox Scarlet

    PlayStation 5 is supposedly slightly more powerful than the Xbox Scarlett.

    Slightly.

    This is what I was told.

    I did not expect this.

    Please don't shoot the messenger.

    To be fair, Matt predicted Scarlett is more powerful and he is probably more connected than I am, so....

    That said, I was told that yes, PS5 is more powerful.

    No I can't really elaborate or go into more detail but.....yeah, my friend, who has been making games since the Dreamcast Era, and who is developing software for both Next-gen consoles said PS5 has the edge.

    I am about to go to the airport soon. I will talk to you guys later.

    New Dev Kits

    Well, I had lunch with my friend yesterday.

    At any rate, he didn't have much to say, sadly.

    He is still slaving away at the game

    Just got updated Scarlett dev kits recently and says new PS5 kits are due soon.

    He doesn't have the updated Dual Shock 5 yet.

    Game is tentatively scheduled to come out on Stadia too! (Personally exited about this)

    That makes four platforms so far (PC/Scarlett/PS5/Stadia)

    No current generation version planned

    He stressed that all the platforms have been easy to develop for, implying they have all the dev kits?

    Game still only has a working title and isn't due until 2021

    He read my posts on Era which shocked the shit out of me!

    I asked him his opinion on how much these next generation consoles will cost and he said he didn't know but he thinks they wont be cheap.

    He has not seen a final design of Scarlett or PS5 yet. He expect no one will until next year. I asked him about OX19 and he said "probably not" which makes me sad.

    Lastly I asked him which platform is most exciting to him and he said Stadia by a landslide.

    That's about all I can think of. Sorry I couldn't get more information....

    I tried.
     
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