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Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT7| - nm

Jan 4, 2018
39
From what I understand, console ports make much more comprehensive use of asynchronous GPU compute than PC, mainly due to the ACE improvements on PS4, the additional bus, as well as the unified memory architecture which is unique to consoles.

So looking at how PC games scale can be rather misleading, due to the difference in system architecture, PC ports are developed differently.
We can see the same thing on consoles. Xbox One/X and PS4/Pro. Devs take their same games and easily take advantage of both the lower end and higher end consoles by scaling resolution to match GPU.

This might be a convincing argument if the Switch got every third party game day and date. It’s gotten a selection of a few choice third party ports but it mostly ignored. This tells us that porting games to it isn’t trivial and in many cases (as attested by the devs themselves) isn’t possible at all.
Switch is completely different. It uses an ARM CPU, has half the memory, and severe storage limitations. That's fundamentally different than two versions of the same consoles with the same CPU, same APIs, and same everything, but just a difference in GPU size.

If devs are targeting a pathetic Lockhart spec from the outset, they will just have to manually create even lower poly LOD models for that platform. It’s more unwanted manual legwork, but if they’re forced to, they’ll have to get on with it.
Not true. Poly-count and everything stays the same. It's just changing resolution values. Lockhart would run the same exact games that Anaconda is running, except instead of running them at around 4K, they'd run at around 1080p. Again, we literally have precedent for this. It works.
 

Deeke777

Member
Oct 25, 2017
350
United States
Lockhart still existing makes sense. It'll be the next-gen Xbox One S if anything, but I don't see why it'd come any time soon. Should be 3-4 years after Scarlett.
 

Rogue Kiwi

Member
May 5, 2019
262
If Lockhart really is a thing it's not for us. It's for the COD/NBA 2K/Madden with the occasional Assassin's Creed crowd. 500GB SSD is fine for them. Delete NBA 2K20 when NBA 2K21 comes out.
500GB SSD is not enough for anyone when games are 120GB+. That's barely four games, all the casual gamers I know are already sick of doing storage management on current consoles. Halving current storage would be a bad move.
 

Tonky

Member
Aug 26, 2019
3,250
I think that MS should launch 1 SKU in 2020, see how things progress and then decide on whether Lockhart is worth introducing to the console market.
 

JahIthBer

Member
Jan 27, 2018
4,794
Not true. Poly-count and everything stays the same. It's just changing resolution values. Lockhart would run the same exact games that Anaconda is running, except instead of running them at around 4K, they'd run at around 1080p. Again, we literally have precedent for this. It works.
It's really not that simple though, there is a general belief that all NG games will be 4K, but really it's highly likely devs are gonna go crazy with temporal reconstruction, VRS, dynamic resolutions etc, 8.3 million pixels is just too much when the GPU leap isn't that big this time.
Lockhart will be a massive pain & cause multiplats to get destroyed visually by PS5 exclusives.
 

big_z

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,813
Lockhart still existing makes sense. It'll be the next-gen Xbox One S if anything, but I don't see why it'd come any time soon. Should be 3-4 years after Scarlett.
Its canned but Lockhart was the idea of a budget sku which would have likely used binned chips. If such a device existed this gen it would be below the original Xbox one in the lineup.
The S example is a hardware refresh for cost savings. It is more or less the same as a launch unit.
 
Jan 4, 2018
39
It's really not that simple though, there is a general belief that all NG games will be 4K, but really it's highly likely devs are gonna go crazy with temporal reconstruction, VRS, dynamic resolutions etc, 8.3 million pixels is just too much when the GPU leap isn't that big this time.
Lockhart will be a massive pain & cause multiplats to get destroyed visually by PS5 exclusives.
Even if games are 1800p or temporally reconstructed 4K or dynamic 4K or whatever, the same thing can be applied to the budget console, just at quarter resolution. So 1800p would translate to roughly 900p.

If you think that devs will target 1080p on Anaconda, then I'd agree that Lockhart would be a problem since 540p is ridiculous. But I really can't see that happening. 2017 produced a console that already has games targeting 4K or close to it. The high end consoles of 2020 won't go backwards. They'll probably stick to the same resolutions or a little higher on average, and then increase the quality of the pixels. No way they go back to 1080p.
 

JahIthBer

Member
Jan 27, 2018
4,794
Even if games are 1800p or temporally reconstructed 4K or dynamic 4K or whatever, the same thing can be applied to the budget console, just at quarter resolution. So 1800p would translate to roughly 900p.

If you think that devs will target 1080p on Anaconda, then I'd agree that Lockhart would be a problem since 540p is ridiculous. But I really can't see that happening. 2017 produced a console that already has games targeting 4K or close to it. The high end consoles of 2020 won't go backwards. They'll probably stick to the same resolutions or a little higher on average, and then increase the quality of the pixels. No way they go back to 1080p.
I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of devs continue to target 1440p, since with good TAA it holds up well on a 4K screen, most people think SOTC, Uncharted 4 etc are 4K.
 
Jan 4, 2018
39
I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of devs continue to target 1440p, since with good TAA it holds up well on a 4K screen, most people think SOTC, Uncharted 4 etc are 4K.
Maybe. But 1440p is pretty far below the average resolution on X.

1440p on Anaconda would translate to 720p on Lockhart (assuming quarter GPU size), which would be pretty bad, but possibly acceptable with a cheap price and very high quality pixels.

But again, I don't think we'll see average resolutions of 1440p on Anaconda. I think it'll be closer to 4K. X is already closer to 4K, and I don't think we'll be going backwards.
 

endlessflood

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,929
Australia (GMT+10)
Ah you people put so much effort into Lockhart and can't really understand what it really is, but I've seen the truth.

Scarlet, as an SKU is less powerful than PS5 because it's around 9tflops whereas Ps5 is around the 11tflops ballpark.

Lockhart exists, but not as an SKU, but as an addon instead. Think of it as the 32X for the MegaDrive or the expansion pack on the N64. Lockhart REALLY is 4tflops, it has a second gpu, 4 extra gigs of ram and 512 gigs of fast storage.

Combining Lockhart and Scarlett you get ANACONDA, the surprising (Tom Warren was right when he said Ms would surprise Sony) 13 Tflops beast that will dominate single-handedly next-gen.

/fanfic
It would actually be interesting if mid-gen refreshes were just add-on hardware (of the 32X style). I suppose cooling would make it way too bulky/inefficient to ever be a reality, but it’s an interesting concept.
 

sncvsrtoip

Banned
Apr 18, 2019
1,754
4 TF is greater than 25% of 11 TF, so it would actually be a bit overkill if it was designed to play the same games at 1080p rather than Anaconda's 4K.
Targeting native 4k will be popular in first few years of nextgen consoles, with more advnced nextgen engines we will se more reconsteuctions resolution technics. And lets not forget games will use some rt effects also.
 
Jan 4, 2018
39
Targeting native 4k will be popular in first few years of nextgen consoles, with more advnced nextgen engines we will se more reconsteuctions resolution technics
I have no doubt we'll see reconstruction, even in the beginning. But the general target will be approximately 4K (that does not mean 100% native 4K), meaning you can scale to Lockhart easily with quarter resolution. Checkerboard 4K or 1800p is still miles above 1080p.
 

DukeBlueBall

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,536
Seattle, WA
PS5/Anaconda: 1440p temporal upscaled to 4k 120fps. Further upscaled to 8K using super scaling.

Lockhart is 720p temporal upscaled to 1080p 120fps. Further upscaled to 4k using super scaling.


Ray tracing is enabled on both.

Your eyes will melt. 🤩
 

Xeontech

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,408
Lol so many ppl missing the mark.

He said Lockheart might come AFTER scarlet launch. Which is why it makes no sense.

It does indeed make a difference. And it's likely not a thing based in reality.

I just looked at Zhuge's profile for the whole year, and I see nothing about Lockhart being cancelled.
dude

Regardless what you skimmed in 3seconds, Lockheart has been cancelled according to multiple insiders, including the guy who tweeted about it again, for about a year. No one is required to do your homework.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,973

sncvsrtoip

Banned
Apr 18, 2019
1,754
I have no doubt we'll see reconstruction, even in the beginning. But the general target will be approximately 4K (that does not mean 100% native 4K), meaning you can scale to Lockhart easily with quarter resolution. Checkerboard 4K or 1800p is still miles above 1080p.
I would imagine that if there is 4tf lockhart you would see ps5 exclusives visually ahead of microsoft’s one targeting both lockhart and scarlett. But eot from my side. I hope Microsoft listen to devs (as df reporting) and lockhart is dead.
 

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,591
Lol so many ppl missing the mark.

He said Lockheart might come AFTER scarlet launch. Which is why it makes no sense.

It does indeed make a difference. And it's likely not a thing based in reality.

dude

Regardless what you skimmed in 3seconds, Lockheart has been cancelled according to multiple insiders, including the guy who tweeted about it again, for about a year. No one is required to do your homework.
Might come after leaves a lot of room for wiggling out.
 
Jan 4, 2018
39
Thanks. I must've missed it since he didn't say Lockhart explicitly. Seems pretty clear though.

I would imagine that if there is 4tf lockhart you would see ps5 exclusives visually ahead of microsoft’s one targeting both lockhart and scarlett. But eot from my side. I hope Microsoft listen to devs (as df reporting) and lockhart is dead.
How so? Let's say PS5 and Anaconda are 8 TF and Lockhart is 2 TF. The same exact games would run on all 3, but they'd be around 4K on PS5 and Anaconda and around 1080p on Lockhart. Lockhart doesn't hold anything back if the main difference is GPU. GPU delta can be solved via resolution. We see this already today.
 

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,591
Thanks. I must've missed it since he didn't say Lockhart explicitly. Seems pretty clear though.


How so? Let's say PS5 and Anaconda are 8 TF and Lockhart is 2 TF. The same exact games would run on all 3, but they'd be around 4K on PS5 and Anaconda and around 1080p on Lockhart. Lockhart doesn't hold anything back if the main difference is GPU. GPU delta can be solved via resolution. We see this already today.
And if they target 1080p with a shit load of graphical effects... Those games will run at 540p on Lockhart?
 
Jan 4, 2018
39
And if they target 1080p with a shit load of graphical effects... Those games will run at 540p on Lockhart?
1080p on PS5 and Anaconda? Yes, that would be 540p on Lockhart. I already mentioned that. So in that case Lockhart obviously wouldn't be viable.

But do you really think that devs are gonna go back to targeting 1080p on high end 2020 consoles when they're currently targeting 4K on a 2017 console? No way.
 

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,591
1080p on PS5 and Anaconda? Yes, that would be 540p on Lockhart. I already mentioned that. So in that case Lockhart obviously wouldn't be viable.

But do you really think that devs are gonna go back to targeting 1080p on high end 2020 consoles when they're currently targeting 4K on a 2017 console? No way.
Lockhart, if it exists, should be a complete afterthought for devs. They shouldn't even keep in in mind when developing nextgen games.

If the time comes after release, sure port it over like a Switch port. But don't even think about it prior to that, waste of time and effort.
 
Jan 4, 2018
39
Lockhart, if it exists, should be a complete afterthought for devs. They shouldn't even keep in in mind when developing nextgen games.

If the time comes after release, sure port it over like a Switch port. But don't even think about it prior to that, waste of time and effort.
How would it be an afterthought? Design your game for Scarlett. On the Anaconda version of Scarlett, set the resolution to 3840x2160. On the Lockhart version of Scarlett, set the resolution to 1920x1080. There's no element of an "afterthought" here. It's the same game on two tiers of GPUs, and you can easily scale it across both via resolution.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,268
MS are wizards (xb1 bc is awesome) but I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around a weaker console launched later that is compatable with previously released games without Dev rework. At the very least you would need to qa those games. It just doesn't seem feasible to me.
 

Noctis114

Member
Jan 25, 2019
1,022
Today marks the 25th anniversary of the PlayStation brand, now what are the chances that we'll hear anything PS5 related today?
 

DukeBlueBall

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,536
Seattle, WA
MS are wizards (xb1 bc is awesome) but I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around a weaker console launched later that is compatable with previously released games without Dev rework. At the very least you would need to qa those games. It just doesn't seem feasible to me.
Yep.

The only way this happens if Lockhart is Xcloud only at launch. After Lockhart launches only games that were on Gamepass would be able to be played on Lockhart.

It'll be a clusterfuck.

I believe Lockhart is same day or before Scarlett.
 

Sunlight

Member
Apr 22, 2019
65
Most important of all, "lockhart" is not very cheap. Only GPU die size will be smaller. You still need a lot of RAM and SSD.

$349 is very likely.
 

Lagspike_exe

Member
Dec 15, 2017
1,064
Lockhart was most likely part of the sandwich strategy when they tought Sony was launching a 8TFLOPS $399 PS5 in 2019. They wanted a high end product at probably $499 and an entry one with detuned graphics at $199 or whatever. When it became obvious that Sony was aiming for 2020 for (most likely) a product equal to power to Scarlett, Lockhart become pointless.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,758
Copy and paste the code
Set the resolution to 1080p
Ship it for Lockhart
Man, how silly do those devs that complained about Lockhart look? All they had to do was set "output_resolution" to 1920x1080!
Right, even if this solution is feasible, I highly doubt it would be "easy". Game development and easy (especially to the extent that is being suggested here) don't exactly go hand in hand.

Edit - I understood that reference too, Nediar.
 

BiTheWay

Member
May 24, 2019
138
If Lockhart v.2 is coming out after Scarlett’s launch, it makes sense if it’s just a discless, 500GB model.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,453
Lockhart still existing makes sense. It'll be the next-gen Xbox One S if anything, but I don't see why it'd come any time soon. Should be 3-4 years after Scarlett.
If it's like the One S, then it will be competing against the PS5.

The One S was competing against the base PS4 and PS4 Slim.

I guess that's a strategy if they try to put the PS5 in between it and Scarlett. If not...that's a bold move.
 

Deeke777

Member
Oct 25, 2017
350
United States
If it's like the One S, then it will be competing against the PS5.

The One S was competing against the base PS4 and PS4 Slim.

I guess that's a strategy if they try to put the PS5 in between it and Scarlett. If not...that's a bold move.
The S also competed against the OG model, and outright replaced it eventually. If Lockhart is a smaller-scale Scarlett, it could be poised at competing with Xbox One X the same way the S took on the OG XO.

Tbh I can't see why they'd do Lockhart at launch. If anything, I think a streaming-only stick for Game Pass/xCloud would be more viable in 2020/2021, and perhaps Lockhart in 2023? What do you think?

BTW: Gnomesayin' for old-school J-to-the-ROC vibes lol.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,766
Barcelona Spain
Isn't most geometry processing done in compute now a days? (Part of the reason why we finally have access to barycentric coordinates in pixel shaders etc.)

Nvidia presentation on mesh shaders started with them describing it as compute with direct path to rasterization.
Pretty sure most of it is a safeguards and api to limit it to fit within 16kB? caches and so on.
Geometry is part done in compute too, true for current gen games. And the performance is nearly as good as mesh shader from what I read on dev twitter.

Here an example of compute and mesh shader



Before you get to transformations you need the geometry to actually appear and this is handled mostly by FF h/w even today since there isn't a lot to program there.


Setup, tessellation and rasterization are fixed function. All of them are a part of a "geometry processor" I imagine.


Different programming models, same h/w.
Mesh shader replaces the full geometry fixed-function if I understand well.

 
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Flutter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,363
How would it be an afterthought? Design your game for Scarlett. On the Anaconda version of Scarlett, set the resolution to 3840x2160. On the Lockhart version of Scarlett, set the resolution to 1920x1080. There's no element of an "afterthought" here. It's the same game on two tiers of GPUs, and you can easily scale it across both via resolution.
Is is really that easy? I dont really think so.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,341
If it's like the One S, then it will be competing against the PS5.

The One S was competing against the base PS4 and PS4 Slim.

I guess that's a strategy if they try to put the PS5 in between it and Scarlett. If not...that's a bold move.
How is that gonna work when the difference between PS5 and Scarlett is said to be negligible?
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,453
How is that gonna work when the difference between PS5 and Scarlett is said to be negligible?
Hey, I didnt say it made sense. Just trying to figure out what that poster meant about Lockhart could be like the One S.

The S also competed against the OG model, and outright replaced it eventually. If Lockhart is a smaller-scale Scarlett, it could be poised at competing with Xbox One X the same way the S took on the OG XO.

Tbh I can't see why they'd do Lockhart at launch. If anything, I think a streaming-only stick for Game Pass/xCloud would be more viable in 2020/2021, and perhaps Lockhart in 2023? What do you think?

BTW: Gnomesayin' for old-school J-to-the-ROC vibes lol.
I think like many here think: its either a low spec version or for something else. But I would think the Anaconda would be competing with the PS5. And Lockhart a cheaper version.

The thing about the One X is it was a mid gen refresh with higher specs. If they were to launch at the same time, to me Lockhart would be more like the Xbox One SAD. Instead of the orig One S.

So, what would be the base console? Or are you thinking a 2 console launch approach?

See....its getting complicated now, lol.
 
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gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,711
Is is really that easy? I dont really think so.
Is that not the way Brad Sams described it in one of his videos?

By the way, how did Mark Cerny describe the porting process on the PS4/PS4 Pro? He said it was a simple process, IIRC that could be done by a single developer, Microsoft intimated the same.

I always find it amazing at how people will always skip those comments when it really suits.
How would it be an afterthought? Design your game for Scarlett. On the Anaconda version of Scarlett, set the resolution to 3840x2160. On the Lockhart version of Scarlett, set the resolution to 1920x1080. There's no element of an "afterthought" here. It's the same game on two tiers of GPUs, and you can easily scale it across both via resolution.
It is not that this is not known. Dr Keo showed how games mainly scale along with resolution, so long as there was overhead in the lower spec, even things like frame rates would hold true. The fear that exists is that developers might start developing for the lower spec console, and that is what drives people crazy in this thread......nothing else.
 

Flutter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,363
Is that not the way Brad Sams described it in one of his videos?

By the way, how did Mark Cerny describe the porting process on the PS4/PS4 Pro? He said it was a simple process, IIRC that could be done by a single developer, Microsoft intimated the same.
Yes, but it turns out not all developers are willing to make that process. Bloodborne is the most famous example. Some like Overwatch, did some very minor upgrades.

You'd still be taking manpower from the team.

It would be really interesting if they develop an auto-downscaler though.