Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT7| - nm

Briareos · Dec 6, 2019

III-V said:
Not all discussion here is console warring, but currently it is close. It would be great to hear any bits you would like to share that wouldn't fan any flames. Or maybe just some salient points to keep in mind as we move into next gen tech.

From a systems rendering perspective, which I work on, here are some references everyone should become familiar with:

James McLaren's Tomorrow Children talk from GDC; original can't be found, summary here, for directions in realtime GI updates: https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news...xel_cone_tracing_in_The_Tomorrow_Children.php

Alex Evans' Dreams renderer talk from SIGGRAPH, for approaches to non-rasterization based rendering, not to mention implicit improvements in shader compiler infrastructure: https://advances.realtimerendering.com/s2015/mmalex_siggraph2015_hires_final.pdf

Sebastian Aaltonen's Claybook talk from GDC, for hybrid raytracing/rasterization, more SDFs: https://twvideo01.ubm-us.net/o1/vault/gdc2018/presentations/Aaltonen_Sebastian_GPU_Based_Clay.pdf

Ulrich Haar's GPU pipeline talk from SIGGRAPH, for new geometry pipeline approaches, the movement of scene graph traversal off the CPU, etc: https://advances.realtimerendering....siggraph2015_combined_final_footer_220dpi.pdf

Michal Drobot's IW7 tech presentation from DD, for many things, but especially the multi-resolution rendering: https://www.activision.com/cdn/research/2017_DD_Rendering_of_COD_IW.pdf

JahIthBer · Dec 6, 2019

Miniature Kaiju said:
I don't think they'll end up being straight up stronger than a 2080 in raw power, but I totally believe that, due to VRS and other stuff, games being made targeting them might be looking better than current games running on a 2080.

A couple of games already support VRS, the performance boost isn't that massive tbh.

Expy · Dec 6, 2019

DriftingSpirit said:
He was talking about the flops.

That still puts it less than X.

Deleted member 59519 · Dec 6, 2019

modiz said:
some more details from splitscreen podcast by jason:

Repeats the disinterest from developers for lockhart, says it will have significantly less ram, he has heard developers saying the GPU is basically PS4 Pro level, but the CPU and SSD should improve it beyond that, still developers dont want to be forced to work on lockhart and feel that the SKU will hamper next gen games.

says that he has heard of the PS5 launch games, and that they are PS5 only, will probably make an article about it in the future

didnt hear about what MS's games, but assume they will target xbox one, PC and Scarlett, like Halo Infinite

a big focus will be on accessbility, no need to think anymore about "i only have 1 hour should i go play this?" but instead gives the option of "play for 10 minutes and stop like using netflix" per his examples.

One last thing he said, and he isnt sure of himself and said to not take him by his word, so please dont go crazy over this and lurking journalists beware of making an article an this lol, but he said that PS5 and Anaconda are better than "graphics cards like the RTX 2080, what is currently on the market". But again, BIG grain of salt on that statement, and not nearly definitive enough to make articles on before we are repeating the previous jason post in this thread.

no that was from the article, not the podcast.

Navi is more like 30% IPC increase over polaris.

This stuff sounds threadworthy

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 6, 2019

BriareosGAF said:
From a systems rendering perspective, which I work on, here are some references everyone should become familiar with:

James McLaren's Tomorrow Children talk from GDC; original can't be found, summary here, for directions in realtime GI updates: https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news...xel_cone_tracing_in_The_Tomorrow_Children.php

Alex Evans' Dreams renderer talk from SIGGRAPH, for approaches to non-rasterization based rendering, not to mention implicit improvements in shader compiler infrastructure: https://advances.realtimerendering.com/s2015/mmalex_siggraph2015_hires_final.pdf

Sebastian Aaltonen's Claybook talk from GDC, for hybrid raytracing/rasterization, more SDFs: https://twvideo01.ubm-us.net/o1/vault/gdc2018/presentations/Aaltonen_Sebastian_GPU_Based_Clay.pdf

Ulrich Haar's GPU pipeline talk from SIGGRAPH, for new geometry pipeline approaches, the movement of scene graph traversal off the CPU, etc: https://advances.realtimerendering....siggraph2015_combined_final_footer_220dpi.pdf

Michal Drobot's IW7 tech presentation from DD, for many things, but especially the multi-resolution rendering: https://www.activision.com/cdn/research/2017_DD_Rendering_of_COD_IW.pdf

oh bb

thank you

VX1 · Dec 6, 2019

QuiteSomething said:
In the article by Jason devs said that Lockhart is on the same power level as Pro. Pro is 4TF GCN, not RDNA

If i remember well: 4TF is also the number Richard Leadbetter from DF mentioned he heard from sources in the industry about Lockhart.That was months ago, around E3 i think.

Gemüsepizza · Dec 6, 2019

I wouldn't be surprised if companies still design their next-gen games around the PS5. There is just no incentive to target Lockhart. Why risk releasing unimpressive games for a console that might sell just a few millions, when Sony has a history of consistently releasing incredibly popular consoles?

Microsoft tried to disrupt the market during this gen with some "clever" ideas, and it failed. Now they are trying again with Lockhart/Xcloud, and developers and gamers are already unhappy about this. Imo devs should just target PS5/Anaconda, and if the Lockhart port is shit, it's shit. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

modiz · Dec 6, 2019

Tonky said:
This stuff sounds threadworthy

if someone makes a thread.

DO NOT add the last part about the 2080, while he did say that, he already warned "Rumor mongers" lol. please. i dont want to spread misinformation around like mad. the part about PS5 launch lineup being next gen only might be thread worthy.

Miniature Kaiju · Dec 6, 2019

JahIthBer said:
A couple of games already support VRS, the performance boost isn't that massive tbh.

You'll get some variation depending on implementation and scene, but I think it was dgrdsv that posted a benchmark before showing upwards of 50% increase in fps. That's pretty massive.

Chamber · Dec 6, 2019

Gemüsepizza said:
I wouldn't be surprised if companies still design their next-gen games around the PS5. There is just no incentive to target Lockhart. Why risk releasing unimpressive games for a console that might sell just a few millions, when Sony has a history of consistently releasing incredibly popular consoles?

Microsoft tried to disrupt the market during this gen with some "clever" ideas, and it failed. Now they are trying again with Lockhart/Xcloud, and developers and gamers are already unhappy about this. Imo devs should just target PS5/Anaconda, and if the Lockhart port is shit, it's shit. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is the way.

lunanto · Dec 6, 2019

Do you expect most of the games support HDR next gen? I just discovered it thanks to my new TV and it is absolutely stunning for me.

VX1 · Dec 6, 2019

modiz said:
the part about PS5 launch lineup being next gen only might be thread worthy.

Isn't this what we expect already?

DriftingSpirit · Dec 6, 2019

Expy said:
That still puts it less than X.

In pure numbers, yeah, but it would perform better because of everything else.

degauss · Dec 6, 2019

Why are we concerned with lockheart (or whatever) holding things back? Isn't it going to have a similar ssd and cpu? It's just going to be the roughly the same shit with less lines of resolution (lesser GPU). It'll be fine, they know what they are doing.

Sprat · Dec 6, 2019

Anono said:
Do you expect most of the games support HDR next gen? I just discovered it thanks to my new TV and it is absolutely stunning for me.

Will there's a good chunk that do already on ps4 (every first party exclusive since horizon) so I would say so

Cyborg · Dec 6, 2019

Gemüsepizza said:
I wouldn't be surprised if companies still design their next-gen games around the PS5. There is just no incentive to target Lockhart. Why risk releasing unimpressive games for a console that might sell just a few millions, when Sony has a history of consistently releasing incredibly popular consoles?

Microsoft tried to disrupt the market during this gen with some "clever" ideas, and it failed. Now they are trying again with Lockhart/Xcloud, and developers and gamers are already unhappy about this. Imo devs should just target PS5/Anaconda, and if the Lockhart port is shit, it's shit. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That would be something :) paying so much money for a shitty product. I dont think MS would allow it

JahIthBer · Dec 6, 2019

Gemüsepizza said:
I wouldn't be surprised if companies still design their next-gen games around the PS5. There is just no incentive to target Lockhart. Why risk releasing unimpressive games for a console that might sell just a few millions, when Sony has a history of consistently releasing incredibly popular consoles?

Microsoft tried to disrupt the market during this gen with some "clever" ideas, and it failed. Now they are trying again with Lockhart/Xcloud, and developers and gamers are already unhappy about this. Imo devs should just target PS5/Anaconda, and if the Lockhart port is shit, it's shit. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lockhart will probs sell the most, PS5 has the brand name, but if Lockhart is $250 & can play the next gen COD & FIFA, then it will do very well.

gofreak · Dec 6, 2019

VX1 said:
Isn't this what we expect already?

I think most do, but not everyone. It's definitely nice to have 'confirmation'.

edit - of course, Jason is talking about first party next-gen lineup. Third parties at launch will be mostly cross-gen as per.

QuiteSomething · Dec 6, 2019

DriftingSpirit said:
He was talking about the flops.

JaggedSac said:
Tom Warren got his information from a spec sheet that said 4tf(same way he got the 10tf for anaconda), Tom was certainly not given a relative performance comparison to the Pro. That 4tf is for a Navi GPU, as such that makes it RDNA. I'll eat my hat if it is not at least a 4tf RDNA gpu.

VX1 said:
If i remember well: 4TF is also the number Richard Leadbetter from DF mentioned he heard from sources in the industry about Lockhart.That was months ago, around E3 i think.

Hm. Confusing.
Anyway hope you are right fellas. 4TF RDNA would be better ofc.

Deleted member 1589 · Dec 6, 2019

Anono said:
Do you expect most of the games support HDR next gen? I just discovered it thanks to my new TV and it is absolutely stunning for me.

very much so. Think it's here to stay.

DriftingSpirit · Dec 6, 2019

degauss said:
Why are we concerned with lockheart (or whatever) holding things back? Isn't it going to have the same or similar ssd and cpu? It's just going to be the same shit with less lines of resolution (lesser GPU). It'll be fine, they know what they are doing.

Nah, it will be more reduced than that in order to get it cheaper.

There is a summary of what Jason mentioned on the last page and it includes significantly reduced RAM, for example.

ImaginaShawn · Dec 6, 2019

JaggedSac said:
Tom Warren got his information from a spec sheet that said 4tf(same way he got the 10tf for anaconda), Tom was certainly not given a relative performance comparison to the Pro. That 4tf is for a Navi GPU, as such that makes it RDNA. I'll eat my hat if it is not at least a 4tf RDNA gpu.

The article said "more than 10 teraflops". Going by what we heard from Tom Warren and Richard Leadbetter at around E3 it seems the original specs were 4 and 12 RDNA. I'm expecting at least 11Tf rDNA from anaconda with Anaconda being the base console.

modiz · Dec 6, 2019

VX1 said:
Isn't this what we expect already?

There were some on era that were saying after the rumors that MS's games will be cross gen for a gen that Sony probably will also probably do cross gen because they leave money on the table or whatever.

Expy · Dec 6, 2019

VX1 said:
Isn't this what we expect already?

Yup, the cross-gen talk was mostly about MS afair.

DigSCCP · Dec 6, 2019

I said this yesterday on the "Assuming the Lockhart leak is true, will it lower the baseline of next gen games?" thread :

If it´s succesful ? Yes !
If not ? Then Lockhart owners prepare to receive really poor versions of multiplataform games.
What this means for the next gen Xbox 1P games ? Their games won´t be impressive as Sony ones but will have better IQ on Scarlett.

Also a point to keep in mind is the rumour that Xbox dev kits are not on devs hands at the moment while PS5 seems to be could be a reason on why some developers may not be happy with the Lockhart SKU coming back, after all they are already working with the PS5 specs and now they have to tune it down because of Lockhart ones.
It´s early to tell because if they can get Lockhart to blow outta of the gate they can have a hit but at the same time if next gen begins like this one with Sony dominating it MS will have to carry the Lockhart anchor until the end of the generation, and it will be a very heavy one.
At the end of the day one thing I´m sure : if Lockhart is true MS 1P games won´t come close to what Sony delivers on PS5 with their studios, unless they pull out really shit ports on it.

Deleted member 59519 · Dec 6, 2019

Expy said:
Yup, the cross-gen talk was mostly about MS afair.

In one of Zhuge's post last year he mentioned that there were unannounced PS4 exclusives in development that may have been transitioned to cross-gen or even PS5 exclusive. So this would sort of confirm the latter

BreakAtmo · Dec 6, 2019

Miniature Kaiju said:
You'll get some variation depending on implementation and scene, but I think it was dgrdsv that posted a benchmark before showing upwards of 50% increase in fps. That's pretty massive.

Wait, seriously? I thought it was more like 10-15%, with the big deal being that it's basically a free boost with no drawbacks.

degauss · Dec 6, 2019

DriftingSpirit said:
Nah, it will be more reduced than that in order to get it cheaper.

There is a summary of what Jason mentioned on the last page and it includes significantly reduced RAM, for example.

Well, I'm not a dev and I could be oversimplifying things but I would speculate the RAM reduction would be fine too if it's mostly being put into use for graphics, maybe 1440p level vs 4K level texture fidelity? Might not effect broader game design decisions so much.

Expy · Dec 6, 2019

Tonky said:
In one of Zhuge's post last year he mentioned that there were unannounced PS4 exclusives in development that may have been transitioned to cross-gen or even PS5 exclusive. So this would sort of confirm the latter

I had a hunch about that, but PS4 still has a bunch of big games coming, including TLOU2, GOT, FF7R. There will be cross-gen versions of these I have no doubt, but also some nice PS5 exclusives.

The unannounced ones, I would imagine were converted to PS5-only early enough in the development cycle for it not to matter.

DriftingSpirit · Dec 6, 2019

Gemüsepizza said:
I wouldn't be surprised if companies still design their next-gen games around the PS5. There is just no incentive to target Lockhart. Why risk releasing unimpressive games for a console that might sell just a few millions, when Sony has a history of consistently releasing incredibly popular consoles?

Microsoft tried to disrupt the market during this gen with some "clever" ideas, and it failed. Now they are trying again with Lockhart/Xcloud, and developers and gamers are already unhappy about this. Imo devs should just target PS5/Anaconda, and if the Lockhart port is shit, it's shit. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

That is one of the two ways I see it going.

Lock is base and we get up scaled versions of held back games.

or

PS5/Snek is base and Lock gets some pretty rough ports.

Isayas · Dec 6, 2019

Snek = Snake = Anaconda?

Deleted member 10747 · Dec 6, 2019

VX1 said:
Isn't this what we expect already?

No, some really think that because MS is doing it that Sony is also going to do the same.

Chamber · Dec 6, 2019

I just want to say the brushing off of developer complaints about Lockhart is weird to me. Is there a point where forum posters decide to stay in their line or nah?

JahIthBer said:
Lockhart will probs sell the most, PS5 has the brand name, but if Lockhart is $250 & can play the next gen COD & FIFA, then it will do very well.

Can Lockhart outsell PS5 and Anaconda put together? That's still going to be the biggest segment of the market, especially in the early days where the less price conscious buyers want the best system.

nikasun :D · Dec 6, 2019

Expy said:
A huge long post to not really say anything that we haven't already heard from many users on Era. Nobody is arguing how this affects Xbox First Party games as they've already been hampered by having to support more than one platform (PC), this is about third party games that are developed exclusively for next-gen consoles. With Lockhart, there is now a lower baseline due to the stupid requirement to support Lockhart.

Support for Lockhart should be Microsoft's problem, not developers'.

I am probably late, but this is exactly what Klobrille's post adressed. They don't think that Lockhart hampers anything or that the lower baseline hinders a true next gen experience for Anaconda. I think we will still get our 4k60 next gen games while Lockhart is 1080p60.

QuiteSomething · Dec 6, 2019

Games like GoT, TLOU2 and FF7 gonna be ps4/ps5. You know stuff that they announced long go. But after that everything probably gonna be ps5 exclusive. Which is nice

dodmaster · Dec 6, 2019

Gemüsepizza said:
There is just no incentive to target Lockhart. Why risk releasing unimpressive games for a console that might sell just a few millions, when Sony has a history of consistently releasing incredibly popular consoles?

Microsoft tried to disrupt the market during this gen with some "clever" ideas, and it failed. Now they are trying again with Lockhart/Xcloud, and developers and gamers are already unhappy about this. Imo devs should just target PS5/Anaconda, and if the Lockhart port is shit, it's shit. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

By this rationale, there's no incentive to target 80% of the PC market at the Lockhart spec, either. Devs want a high baseline, and they'll get that with a Ryzen2 CPU and a PCIE4 SSD. Also, what are those 'clever' ideas that failed?

Sid · Dec 6, 2019

QuiteSomething said:
Games like GoT, TLOU2 and FF7 gonna be ps4/ps5. You know stuff that they announced long go. But after that everything probably gonna be ps5 exclusive. Which is nice

Final Fantasy 7 remake part 1 is not even a PS4 exclusive

DriftingSpirit · Dec 6, 2019

degauss said:
Well, I'm not a dev and I could be oversimplifying things but I would speculate the RAM reduction would be fine too if it's mostly being put into use for graphics, maybe 1440p level vs 4K level texture fidelity? Might not effect broader game design decisions so much.

In combination with the other downgrades, I don't know about that.

Dave. · Dec 6, 2019

BriareosGAF said:
From a systems rendering perspective, which I work on, here are some references everyone should become familiar with:

James McLaren's Tomorrow Children talk from GDC; original can't be found, summary here, for directions in realtime GI updates: https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news...xel_cone_tracing_in_The_Tomorrow_Children.php

Alex Evans' Dreams renderer talk from SIGGRAPH, for approaches to non-rasterization based rendering, not to mention implicit improvements in shader compiler infrastructure: https://advances.realtimerendering.com/s2015/mmalex_siggraph2015_hires_final.pdf

Sebastian Aaltonen's Claybook talk from GDC, for hybrid raytracing/rasterization, more SDFs: https://twvideo01.ubm-us.net/o1/vault/gdc2018/presentations/Aaltonen_Sebastian_GPU_Based_Clay.pdf

Ulrich Haar's GPU pipeline talk from SIGGRAPH, for new geometry pipeline approaches, the movement of scene graph traversal off the CPU, etc: https://advances.realtimerendering....siggraph2015_combined_final_footer_220dpi.pdf

Michal Drobot's IW7 tech presentation from DD, for many things, but especially the multi-resolution rendering: https://www.activision.com/cdn/research/2017_DD_Rendering_of_COD_IW.pdf

Thank you.

DriftingSpirit · Dec 6, 2019

Isayas said:
Snek = Snake = Anaconda?

Right.

Deleted member 59519 · Dec 6, 2019

Expy said:
The unannounced ones, I would imagine were converted to PS5-only early enough in the development cycle for it not to matter.

I'm sure there will also be at least one game that began development as a PS5 game

QuiteSomething · Dec 6, 2019

Sid said:
Final Fantasy 7 remake part 1 is not even a PS4 exclusive

It's timed exclusive with big marketing push from Sony so that's why I included it

anexanhume · Dec 6, 2019

JahIthBer said:
Lockhart will probs sell the most, PS5 has the brand name, but if Lockhart is $250 & can play the next gen COD & FIFA, then it will do very well.

Ubisoft still releases Just Dance for Wii. PS2 got FIFA 14. Last gen got the latest CoD and FIFA in PS4/XB1 launch years too. They don't necessarily have to migrate.

Sid · Dec 6, 2019

QuiteSomething said:
It's timed exclusive with big marketing push from Sony so that's why I included it

It's not on PC?

gundamkyoukai · Dec 6, 2019

anexanhume said:
Ubisoft still releases Just Dance for Wii. PS2 got FIFA 14. Last gen got the latest CoD and FIFA in PS4/XB1 launch years too. They don't necessarily have to migrate.

Yep and with BC they don't have to worry about losing anything they did buy like other big games when they do decide to move over.

Sid said:
It's not on PC?

Not at launch , in fact we don't know how long it timed exclusive for .

M3rcy · Dec 6, 2019

iboshow said:
For test purposes, if it doesn't run a current gen game that well, then it's not a good idea.

Would prove nothing. Games perform better on console hardware than they do on similar PC hardware for a number of reasons.

Valet Jay · Dec 6, 2019

Let's just say Sony makes a PS5 game. Best in class in image quality, HDR, ridiculous AA, and 4K (or even 4K CB at the very least). Everything that we want and expect.

Okay.
Now, what GPU will you need to scale that down to 1080p without any. Other. Compromises?

OutofMana · Dec 6, 2019

The focus of cloud/streaming feels like it will be as popular as the lead up to VR has been. It is such a niche, even more so because in most cases just a lesser experience. Sure it's neat, but thinking we are getting the Netflix of games next gen is laughable with how bad the Stadia launch has been. Sorry if i'm being too cynical.

lunanto · Dec 6, 2019

QuiteSomething said:
Games like GoT, TLOU2 and FF7 gonna be ps4/ps5. You know stuff that they announced long go. But after that everything probably gonna be ps5 exclusive. Which is nice

But if PS5 is backwards compatible... you say two seperate releases for console? Weren´t we talking about patches for these games?

DriftingSpirit · Dec 6, 2019

Tonky said:
In one of Zhuge's post last year he mentioned that there were unannounced PS4 exclusives in development that may have been transitioned to cross-gen or even PS5 exclusive. So this would sort of confirm the latter

It makes sense for Sony to just throw everything at PS5. PS4 doesn't need the support anymore.

isahn · Dec 6, 2019

Valet Jay said:
Let's just say Sony makes a PS5 game. Best in class in image quality, HDR, ridiculous AA, and 4K (or even 4K CB at the very least). Everything that we want and expect.

Okay.
Now, what GPU will you need to scale that down to 1080p without any. Other. Compromises?

roughly 0.5x the PS5 GPU
edit: assuming 4K cb even less if ps5 is 4k native

Expy · Dec 6, 2019

Sid said:
It's not on PC?

There are no other platforms announced for it.

Play it first on PS4 is the only thing we've heard about it.

You can play it second on PS5.

For anything else, we need to wait.

Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT7| - nm

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