Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT8| - The Dark Tower (See Staff Post)

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Kage Maru

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,792
What I'm confused on is after Matt stated that we shouldn't be taking the leak too seriously, is there a reason why some are still convinced that the PS5 will be 9.2TF? Is it the lack of RT hardware in the tests that we're thinking he was actually eluding to?

Yes but the long term effects of hardware backwards compatibility is questionable. Because it means that you're stuck with those set of instructions and specifications. If Sony opted for a custom RT solution, it means that they are stuck with it and can't use AMD's RT Solution in the future. (Assuming that's its custom). There are benefits and cons for hardware vs software compatibility. Microsoft went with software BC, Sony went with hardware BC.

We can tell by the amount of CU Xbox Consoles and PS Consoles have.

But lets pray that Sony designed the PS OS properly for future BC.
No sure on the context you're referring to but hardware BC usually refers to including actual hardware to run the BC games. Outside of the inclusion of support for XMA audio and texture formats in the XBO, both are a form of software BC. Unless I'm totally misunderstanding what you mean.
 
OT9 Thread Poll (restarted due to mistake)
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OP
Mecha Meister

Mecha Meister

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,136
Can more still be added?
[OT9] Nein teraflops
I'm sorry to see my favorite and one that many others expressed appreciation for was dropped:

|OT9| It's. A. Toy.

Sad, as I committed to supporting it. I guess I can't in good conscience vote for anything else (not that I expect the next thread to amount to much - at this rate it'll be mostly sniping for another 400 pages without much in the way of concrete information.)
Sorry, "It's. A. Toy." was supposed to be in there, I saw it but must have forgotten to quote it. I've restarted the poll and added these two:

"Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT9| - Nein teraflops"
"Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT9| - It's. A. Toy. "

Apologies for the inconvenience, here's the new link!


Please submit your votes again with the new link!
 

Patent

Member
Jul 2, 2018
1,375
North Carolina
Sorry, "It's. A. Toy." was supposed to be in there, I saw it but must have forgotten to quote it. I've restarted the poll and added these two:

"Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT9| - Nein teraflops"
"Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT9| - It's. A. Toy. "

Apologies for the inconvenience, here's the new link!

Oh thanks i was looking for Its a toy so i voted for another one before
 

Hey Please

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
14,612
Not America
Sorry, "It's. A. Toy." was supposed to be in there, I saw it but must have forgotten to quote it. I've restarted the poll and added these two:

"Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT9| - Nein teraflops"
"Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT9| - It's. A. Toy. "

Apologies for the inconvenience, here's the new link!

Yoooo

|OT-9| Nein TF, just Git the Toy.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,705
Then if wider and slower isn’t possible, how is anyone thinking MS is reaching 12TFLOPs?

My personal, position is that 50+CUs reasonably clocked is the way to go, if they want high end performance. <400mmsq APU dies would mean a larger APU cost versus the previous gen., however, less RAM chips (PS4 use day 16) and a completely custom SSD would mean they can claw back some cost, and the lower clocked GPU would keep the cooling and chassis design under control.

Better yet, HBM would further lower power consumption and PCB complexity, and from the recent details discussed by chris 1515 , it seems HBM2(E) isn’t as costly as many want to believe.
If you go big die do you also factor in moving to 7nm+ or even 5nm later in the gen to reduce cost - or will process cost increases potentially mean you don’t save anything?
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,705

From an user test that I saw elsewhere.
The GPU only die power for ~200+W console seems to be in 1800-1950mhz. With a years time that range might be at 2000-2150 mhz.

In other words, 150W for the GPU alone in the PS5 is believable. That gets you 1950mhz in 2019. It might get you 2150mhz in 2020.
How is this graph not memed by now - someone photoshop it into a vgchartz sales graph or a resolution vs distance graph
 
Feb 23, 2019
651
You guys act like Sony didn’t already do the GPU size vs cost vs clocks vs performance analysis

They’re not going to pick a sub optimal result....
 
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Mecha Meister

Mecha Meister

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,136

sangreal

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,661
How do we know it was an intern?
He left his resume in the folder.
His daily work log also shows that outside of QA he was responsible for cleaning up boxes on the 7th floor and counting power supplies

Why do you think the excel files were a mess?
'cs_buffer_load_32bit_c2_cacheswizzle0_half_channel_arden' was apparently the first test done to check on Oberon's BC1 regression test, among other things.
To be fair, this is only one of a dozen+ BC1 sheets and it looks like he was just testing the python script -- I know you guys already discussed that and I do agree it is all a mess

What is the main question we should ask ourselves?
Can we tell what are the facts and which are 'facts' based on 6 months of speculation?
but I think it is pretty easy to tell what is junk and what isn't in these files. Whether any of it has to do with PS5 is a whole different topic

It certainly involves Sony though -- everyone has pointed out the BC modes but they're also mentioned by name in the commit log his script pulled
r197717 | chualin | 2019-05-20 22:29:45 +0800 (Mon, 20 May 2019) | 2 lines

confirmed with SIE, remove external/amd/lib/gfx10_a and external/amd/lib/gfx10_b/cmodel
 

JonesXlv

Member
Jun 7, 2018
110
How is it at all damaging when only a handful of people on a few forums even know about it?

The real world doesn't know or care about some random teraflop calculations.
I will continue to bang the drum that the folks you have to appease early on are the hardcore/enthusiasts, which is era/gaf/B3D. Organic channel sentiment grows from the top down (little brother chats with techie big brother, joe blow watches a gaming youtube channel talking about these leaks... just examples, you get my point). Get out ahead of the potential mis-info, correct the potentially misguided wave via controlled leaks, and you eliminate the embers of the "I have a PS4 but now considering an Xbox due to potential power gap" narrative. Once that door has been opened to a previous loyalist, Sony runs the risk of customer base churn.

To be very clear, I am not approaching this from a Sony vs MS perspective, but from a purely PR/optics perspective for Sony. Do not let BS muddy the channel this early on without at least attempting to correct.
 

Hoo-doo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,042
The Netherlands
I will continue to bang the drum that the folks you have to appease early on are the hardcore/enthusiasts, which is ERA. Organic channel sentiment grows from the top down (little brother chats with techie big brother, joe blow watches a gaming youtube channel talking about these leaks... just examples, you get my point). Get out ahead of the potential mis-info, correct the potentially misguided wave, and you eliminate the embers of the "I have a PS4 but now considering an Xbox due to potential power gap" narrative. Once that door has been opened to a previous loyalist, Sony runs the risk of customer base churn.

I do not mean this from a MS vs Sony perspective, but from a purely business perspective. To be very clear, I am not approaching this from a Sony vs MS perspective, but from a purely PR/optics perspective for Sony.
The moment these companies show actual games, pricing and features, all this ‘outrage’ will have been a fart in the wind.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,091
I will continue to bang the drum that the folks you have to appease early on are the hardcore/enthusiasts, which is ERA. Organic channel sentiment grows from the top down (little brother chats with techie big brother, joe blow watches a gaming youtube channel talking about these leaks... just examples, you get my point). Get out ahead of the potential mis-info, correct the potentially misguided wave, and you eliminate the embers of the "I have a PS4 but now considering an Xbox due to potential power gap" narrative. Once that door has been opened to a previous loyalist, Sony runs the risk of customer base churn.

I do not mean this from a MS vs Sony perspective, but from a purely business perspective. To be very clear, I am not approaching this from a Sony vs MS perspective, but from a purely PR/optics perspective for Sony.
History has shown us that Era's opinion doesn't mean much of anything and they don't reflect the market at all. A lot of people here don't even believe it and are waiting for the reveal.

The vast majority will never be aware of this rumor.
 

K.Jack

Rap Genius
Moderator
Oct 27, 2017
3,049
Dark Space
I will continue to bang the drum that the folks you have to appease early on are the hardcore/enthusiasts, which is ERA. Organic channel sentiment grows from the top down (little brother chats with techie big brother, joe blow watches a gaming youtube channel talking about these leaks... just examples, you get my point). Get out ahead of the potential mis-info, correct the potentially misguided wave, and you eliminate the embers of the "I have a PS4 but now considering an Xbox due to potential power gap" narrative. Once that door has been opened to a previous loyalist, Sony runs the risk of customer base churn.

I do not mean this from a MS vs Sony perspective, but from a purely business perspective. To be very clear, I am not approaching this from a Sony vs MS perspective, but from a purely PR/optics perspective for Sony.
Lets simmer down and be realistic here. No one is making any decision, a year before the consoles release, because of these leaks.

If the power gap exists, what do you want Sony to come out and say?

If it doesn't exist, what do you want Sony to come out and say?

A reputable company that is confident in its product does not alter its time tables because of niche forum chatter.

"Hey guys the people on ERA are really losing their shit, we might lose like 1500 sales, schedule the full reveal for CES right NOW!"
 

Kreten

Member
Nov 16, 2019
318
Is Lockhart still expected to be 4tf? If so, why a console that would be seemingly worse than the Xbox One X?
Because 4TF RDNA performance is ~28% more efficient in games than GCN(x1x) and Lockheart will have VRS for additional 25% performance gain in games and that puts it on equivalent to 6.4TF GCN GPU. Add 40x faster SSD, much faster memory, 4gb more memory, hardware RT, and 4x more powerful CPU and the overall picture changes drastically. I believe Lockheart at 4TF will perform at least 2x better in games than X1X.
 

Bunzy

Member
Nov 1, 2018
1,001
Because 4TF RDNA performance is ~28% more efficient in games than GCN(x1x) and Lockheart will have VRS for additional 25% performance gain in games and that puts it on equivalent to 6.4TF GCN GPU. Add 40x faster SSD, much faster memory, 4gb more memory, hardware RT, and 4x more powerful CPU and the overall picture changes drastically. I believe Lockheart at 4TF will perform at least 2x better in games than X1X.

Especially considering x plays everything at 1440 to 4K while Lockhart will be 1080p
 

inpHilltr8r

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,616
Oh sure - I think the main question we have here is whether chip tested is in fact missing key hw-features, in which case - it's either for the wrong device, or it is a 'throwaway' revision.
a stepping stone seems plausible, if you have more time, you might take a more meandering route than someone who started later and has less room to manouver
 

JonesXlv

Member
Jun 7, 2018
110
Lets simmer down and be realistic here. No one is making any decision, a year before the consoles release, because of these leaks.

If the power gap exists, what do you want Sony to come out and say?

If it doesn't exist, what do you want Sony to come out and say?

A reputable company that is confident in its product does not alter its time tables because of niche forum chatter.
You are correct, no one is making any decisions right now. But like i said, what allowing a potentially incorrect narrative to take hold does is opens the door for current customers to fan the embers of platform change.

Your last line is false. 100% false. I work in tech, and have very close friends/colleagues at the VP level working in consumer electronics (some focusing on the TV/display market, others with mobile phones) on the PR/marketing front, and there is an internal pointed effort (i.e. leaking information to forums, journos) to control narratives that begin to develop that can taint organic channel sentiment. There are even "leaks" that are preconstructed and ready to roll if needed. With (X)aaS being the new model, fractions of fractions of percentages of market share have sizable annual recurring revenue implications.

I'm just saying with all of this, era+gaf+reddit+youtube+DF+Twitter, this news trickles down.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,902
Florida

From an user test that I saw elsewhere.
The GPU only die power for ~200+W console seems to be in 1800-1950mhz. With a years time that range might be at 2000-2150 mhz.

In other words, 150W for the GPU alone in the PS5 is believable. That gets you 1950mhz in 2019. It might get you 2150mhz in 2020.
This is why I doubt SX is under 1.8. It would be a waste to not run that box.
 

Otakukidd

Member
Oct 25, 2017
477
How do we know it was an intern?
He left his resume in the folder.

Why do you think the excel files were a mess?
'cs_buffer_load_32bit_c2_cacheswizzle0_half_channel_arden' was apparently the first test done to check on Oberon's BC1 regression test, among other things.

What is the main question we should ask ourselves?
Can we tell what are the facts and which are 'facts' based on 6 months of speculation?
Did he have an objective section in the resume? Lol
 

bcatwilly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,979
You are correct, no one is making any decisions right now. But like i said, what allowing a potentially incorrect narrative to take hold does is opens the door for current customers to fan the embers of platform change.

Your last line is false. 100% false. I work in tech, and have very close friends/colleagues at the VP level working in consumer electronics (some focusing on the TV/display market, others with mobile phones) on the PR/marketing front, and there is an internal pointed effort (i.e. leaking information to forums, journos) to control narratives that begin to develop that can taint organic channel sentiment. There are even "leaks" that are preconstructed and ready to roll if needed. With (X)aaS being the new model, fractions of fractions of percentages of market share have sizable annual recurring revenue implications.

I'm just saying with all of this, era+gaf+reddit+youtube+DF+Twitter, this news trickles down.
Interesting insight there. I said before that my own personal opinion was that we would only have a decent idea on target specs prior to full console reveals if there was a major leak/article which included things that were not refuted by one side or the other within 48 hours through some mechanism such as what you describe as nobody would really expect a formal company statement on such things either.
 

Shambala

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
1,206
Lets simmer down and be realistic here. No one is making any decision, a year before the consoles release, because of these leaks.

If the power gap exists, what do you want Sony to come out and say?

If it doesn't exist, what do you want Sony to come out and say?

A reputable company that is confident in its product does not alter its time tables because of niche forum chatter.

"Hey guys the people on ERA are really losing their shit, we might lose like 1500 sales, schedule the full reveal for CES right NOW!"
Lmfao exactly. It is what it is already.
 

DukeBlueBall

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,889
Seattle, WA
His daily work log also shows that outside of QA he was responsible for cleaning up boxes on the 7th floor and counting power supplies



To be fair, this is only one of a dozen+ BC1 sheets and it looks like he was just testing the python script -- I know you guys already discussed that and I do agree it is all a mess



but I think it is pretty easy to tell what is junk and what isn't in these files. Whether any of it has to do with PS5 is a whole different topic

It certainly involves Sony though -- everyone has pointed out the BC modes but they're also mentioned by name in the commit log his script pulled
Hmm I wonder if the commit log is included in the zip download.

I should have made a branch!
 

MrPink

Member
Oct 27, 2017
777
Imagine this intern living their day completely unaware of the shitstorm they have caused in our world
 

sangreal

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,661
Hmm I wonder if the commit log is included in the zip download.

I should have made a branch!
It should be, but I believe they're just updates to the test harness which dont really mean anything to me

That one is from study\BinSearch_Regression_cmodel_git\svnLogTserver.txt

There is a similar one with arden-related commits in study\makefile_search\search_result\gitLog_Trunk_2019_0606_152632.txt
 

More Butter

Member
Jun 12, 2018
1,359
This is the problem with ResetEra. You make a normal comment and you get replied with an unnecessary aggressiv tone.

Where have i stated that richard confirms the specs?
I only have stated that DF has entered the speculation realm which i would not have expected them to enter. I am totally d'accord with it, but it is risky because you can be contradicted at any given time. The data is real but it is still all speculatioin what these data means for next gen.

And no need to reply. I am not interested in getting another aggressiv reply
I still think it’s strange to critique DF for commenting on the information that is out there.
 

BradGrenz

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,339
This thread moves at an unimaginable pace but it's still fun to read. But I was wondering about something myself that I didn't see talked about (I think). When designing a console APU, is it out of the ordinary to create concurrent APU designs to have some leeway in case of unsatisfactory results in performance/thermals in one of the APU? Or is it just incremental tweaks on the one APU design until you're satisfied with it...
There's a bit of history to go off of that tells us this can definitely happen. Sega quite famously had two competing designs for the Dreamcast. They chose the Japan developed PowerVR design instead of the 3Dfx powered American option. Sony had to give up on the Toshiba GPU component for PS3 and went with nVidia late in the process. Sony also had to throw out an early version of the PS4 based on using 4 Steamroller cores for the CPU instead of the 8 Jaguar cores we got.
 

K.Jack

Rap Genius
Moderator
Oct 27, 2017
3,049
Dark Space
You are correct, no one is making any decisions right now. But like i said, what allowing a potentially incorrect narrative to take hold does is opens the door for current customers to fan the embers of platform change.

Your last line is false. 100% false. I work in tech, and have very close friends/colleagues at the VP level working in consumer electronics (some focusing on the TV/display market, others with mobile phones) on the PR/marketing front, and there is an internal pointed effort (i.e. leaking information to forums, journos) to control narratives that begin to develop that can taint organic channel sentiment. There are even "leaks" that are preconstructed and ready to roll if needed. With (X)aaS being the new model, fractions of fractions of percentages of market share have sizable annual recurring revenue implications.

I'm just saying with all of this, era+gaf+reddit+youtube+DF+Twitter, this news trickles down.
I work in tech also. I know how PR operates, in micro and macro levels.

Things have to be said in ways that the average consumer can understand for damage to be done. Do you really believe we've condensed things down to that point yet? Hell play the DF video for an audience at E3 and they'd be lost, bored, and nodding off, before telling you to start the next gaming reel.

In the end, we are the only ones who want to "talk" video game consoles. Everyone else wants to talk video games.

Let me ask this: Did the months of forum chatter on the Xbox One being weaker than the PS4 do 1% of the damage of their disastrous E3 reveal?
 

sangreal

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,661
There's a bit of history to go off of that tells us this can definitely happen. Sega quite famously had two competing designs for the Dreamcast. They chose the Japan developed PowerVR design instead of the 3Dfx powered American option. Sony had to give up on the Toshiba GPU component for PS3 and went with nVidia late in the process. Sony also had to throw out an early version of the PS4 based on using 4 Steamroller cores for the CPU instead of the 8 Jaguar cores we got.
Microsoft also had Yukon competing with Durango though I doubt they ever actually made silicon for it
 

RedRum

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,100
I work in tech also. I know how PR operates, in micro and macro levels.

Things have to be said in ways that the average consumer can understand for damage to be done. Do you really believe we've condensed things down to that point yet? Hell play the DF video for an audience at E3 and they'd be lost, bored, and nodding off, before telling you to start the next gaming reel.

In the end, we are the only ones who want to "talk" video game consoles. Everyone else wants to talk video games.

Let me ask this: Did the months of forum chatter on the Xbox One being weaker than the PS4 do 1% of the damage of their disastrous E3 reveal?
The power and resolution difference was in every single gaming article. Each time a multiplat released, resolution was at the forefront of the media. It put resolution ahead of performance for an entire console generation, and basically defined it.
 

Shpeshal Ed

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,175
Melbourne, Australia
I work in tech also. I know how PR operates, in micro and macro levels.

Things have to be said in ways that the average consumer can understand for damage to be done. Do you really believe we've condensed things down to that point yet? Hell play the DF video for an audience at E3 and they'd be lost, bored, and nodding off, before telling you to start the next gaming reel.

In the end, we are the only ones who want to "talk" video game consoles. Everyone else wants to talk video games.

Let me ask this: Did the months of forum chatter on the Xbox One being weaker than the PS4 do 1% of the damage of their disastrous E3 reveal?
Did way more than 1% lol
 

tutomos

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,190
Who knows what people will be focused on? Maybe it'll be resolution, maybe it'll be loading time this time around.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,344
The power and resolution difference was in every single gaming article. Each time a multiplat released, resolution was at the forefront of the media. It put resolution ahead of performance for an entire console generation, and basically defined it.
That would have not been a big deal if it was not price $100 more and even then XB had it best launch ever and it was after the first year they really fall behind.
Power matter yes but you don't look at things in a bubble.
It's like when this forum made a big deal about cross play and other places it did not effect things really.

Who knows what people will be focused on? Maybe it'll be resolution, maybe it'll be loading time this time around.
They will focus on everything like they always do .
I really don't know why some people seem to like to breaks down things to one thing or the other .
It's never so simple and it always more than one factor \aspects in these things.
 

Matt

The Terror that Flaps in the Night
The Fallen
Oct 24, 2017
4,117
I work in tech also. I know how PR operates, in micro and macro levels.

Things have to be said in ways that the average consumer can understand for damage to be done. Do you really believe we've condensed things down to that point yet? Hell play the DF video for an audience at E3 and they'd be lost, bored, and nodding off, before telling you to start the next gaming reel.

In the end, we are the only ones who want to "talk" video game consoles. Everyone else wants to talk video games.

Let me ask this: Did the months of forum chatter on the Xbox One being weaker than the PS4 do 1% of the damage of their disastrous E3 reveal?
Yeah. Market research around the beginning of the gen showed ”weak graphic power” (or similar) was a pretty meaningful part of the One’s relatively poor performance.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
5,230
I work in tech also. I know how PR operates, in micro and macro levels.

Things have to be said in ways that the average consumer can understand for damage to be done. Do you really believe we've condensed things down to that point yet? Hell play the DF video for an audience at E3 and they'd be lost, bored, and nodding off, before telling you to start the next gaming reel.

In the end, we are the only ones who want to "talk" video game consoles. Everyone else wants to talk video games.

Let me ask this: Did the months of forum chatter on the Xbox One being weaker than the PS4 do 1% of the damage of their disastrous E3 reveal?
You're probably right, though I could see some casuals seeing "Xbox Series X has 12 teraflop graphics and PS5 only has 9.2" and just making the obvious conclusion from there.

Of course, as you also touched on, we'll probably have full specs a solid 9 months before release so it's unlikely to matter.
 

defaltoption

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
4,136
Orlando, Florida
What’s so crazy is that when all is said and done, regardless of system specs, next year I’ll be playing Halo Infinite and The Last of Us 2 on my new consoles while patiently waiting for the next God of War and Hellblade 2, and none of this will matter.
 

Kreten

Member
Nov 16, 2019
318
Show me data that shows proof that these chips will be in any PS5 at all?
Isn’t this kinda silly to ask? Can you show proof that any chip at all will be in PS or xbox? They can just say screw it and ship us 3d printed plastic and say play through cloud on ur phone lol
Well Matt clearly said that the Github leak can't confirm anything and here we are still analyzing the same data.

How we can blame them if they don't want to comment any further on this subject?
Because only Sony/MS can confirm anything, everything else is a rumor and speculation. Everything any developer tells us is still not a confirmation but a rumor based on what they were told or how they interpreted the information they received. None of it is confirmation of anything.

Just want to add that just because some developer has physical dev kit doesn’t mean that they are allowed to open them nor that they have interest in opening them. I’ve worked on plenty of systems with alarms/cameras built into cases/motherboards so that they go off when case is opened.
 
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