a 15% reduction in silicon size does not give you a $100 in cost savings. the APUs in the PS4 and X1 were only 100-110 dollars. Xbox was around 10% bigger which is why it cost $110. even if the cost of silicons has doubled, you are looking at $30 max.After this latest round of leaks and seeing the analysis from Digital Foundry yesterday, I believe the PS5 is going to be around 9 tflops. Why?
It's quite simple really. It just makes sense that Sony would want to stick with a $400 price, just as they did with the PS4 and the Pro. This pretty much means they needed to stick with an affordable 36 CU chip, which perfectly lines up with this latest leak. It all makes sense.
The smart money would be betting on the 9 vs 12 tflops right now.
There are indications Oberon is part of an APU: The results tabs are labelled "iGPU", for integrated GPU. Oberon (like Ariel) should be part of an APU, but they were testing only the GPU part, the iGPU.
What's the source about the 300mm² GPU ? that looks like a rough average.
You're seeing this entire discussion through the eyes of specs. To the average consumer a 9 tflop machine with a great CPU and an amazing SSD is premium and the latest technology. You wouldn't call a Ferrari a crappy every man car because the latest Lamborghini has 100 extra horsepower.Well, if the new CEO calls that price "Niche", "Premium" for "Hardcore players" that want the "latest technology" and reveals 9TF at CES... it is going to be funny. Because these are the words they have used to describe PS5 to shareholders.
It seems to make all the sense. They're maximizing the 36 CU as best they can.Like peopel said if they went for 399 then go for 2ghz doesn't makes sense.
I'm using the term hardcore because Sony themselves came with that? So unless you are saying Sony themselves are just misusing the words for the niche, hardcore and that the price will reflect the advanced feature set. i don't know why they would mean for the Enthusiastist. Those are official words so why wouldn't i use it? Read the article.You keep saying hardcore, what you mean to say is Enthusiasts. That's what the XSX is. Lockhart is for the casual croud because of capabilities and more than likely what it will be priced at.
People buying these day one are hardcore/enthusiasts. PS5 if it;s going to be 9tf @ $399 is going to sell to others besides hardcore enthusiasts. You are right that right out of the gate with their wording for XSX that it's more for the hardcore crowd. And it's price will reflect that, just like xbox one x, and PS4PRO did.
I really don't know wtf your point is. If PS5 comes at 9tf and at $399 it's going to sell hotter than PS4, and it's not like it's going to be a gimped system.
If you see all the aquariusz posts you will know all of his info is about full chips with complete I/O die, not part of APU.There are indications Oberon is part of an APU: The results tabs are labelled "iGPU", for integrated GPU. Oberon (like Ariel) should be part of an APU, but they were testing only the GPU part, the iGPU.
What's the source about the 300mm² GPU ? that looks like a rough average.
At this rate.. let's hope we get solid reveals? / pricing? / white paper leaks? , soon!
Depends on other factors, I'm still #teamHBM and if they did a deal, possible they got HBM2(E) cheaper than what it cost for GDDR6. Rumors out of last night from WCCFTECH is new gpu's coming out from AMD will have GDDR6,HBM2.
I don't know if the ones using HBM2 are just render cards?
If true 9vs12tf, digital must be pleased... Their head to heads would be boring if both were more or less same power
The PSVR breakout box is actually a quad-core ARM SOC and an HDMI transceiver chip. The transceiver wouldn't be needed since presumably any PSVR2 would have something like a virtual link video over USB-C port, seriously already spotted in Ariel. The ARM is not only what runs the 3D audio, but also runs the big screen mode so no PS4 resources are used to draw the screen while playing a 2D game in VR. If PS5 doesn't have the breakout box, there would have to be a tiny reservation so it can draw a virtual screen for 2D games, probably not a big deal.
You're seeing this entire discussion through the eyes of specs. To the average consumer a 9 tflop machine with a great CPU and an amazing SSD is premium and the latest technology. You wouldn't call a Ferrari a crappy every man car because the latest Lamborghini has 100 extra horsepower.
It seems to make all the sense. They're maximizing the 36 CU as best they can.
a 15% reduction in silicon size does not give you a $100 in cost savings. the APUs in the PS4 and X1 were only 100-110 dollars. Xbox was around 10% bigger which is why it cost $110. even if the cost of silicons has doubled, you are looking at $30 max.
with everything being the same. ssd, ram, cpu and the ps5 requiring a better cooling solution since they would be generating even more heat at 2.0 ghz where are you getting $399 vs $499 from?
With that difference the power advantage would just be a given. With close performance you'll have rabid fans clamouring for any "win" they can get from DF analyses.
I'm using the term hardcore because Sony themselves came with that? So unless you are saying Sony themselves are just misusing the words for the niche, hardcore and that the price will reflect the advanced feature set. i don't know why they would mean for the Enthusiastist. Those are official words so why wouldn't i use it? Read the article.
What about an 399$ system makes it niche and for the hardcore and that the price will be appealing to gamers in light of its advanced feature set? I just don't understand that and again something Sony came up with not me.
Source about the price point:
About the bolded. What are you talking about? Why are you arguing about stuff i did not say? Second, just because you're very happy with a 9Tf system doesn't mean i, or someone else have to be and please stop putting words in my mouth. To be honest i also don't really know "wtf" you are arguing about. All kinds of things i did not speak about.
This is exactly why a 2Ghz 36CU APU makes no sense whatsoever. It isn't going to save Sony any money over the XSX APU, yet it will be significantly worse in performance.
Those are clearly averages to the nearest 50. Which actually fit with Oberon at ~316mm² and Arden at ~360mm²
If the sweet spot moves higher with N7P or 7nm+ then 2GHz GPU is ok.
HBM isn't going to make a 9.2TF GPU match a 12TF one though. It's a nice and interesting memory technology, but ultimately if the flops aren't there they aren't there.
The real issue is that because Sony are pushing such high clocks and thermal envelopes for far their yield is probably unlikely to be any better than the 12TF chips MS is producing which only have to hit 1675Mhz for 12TF. 2Ghz is absolutely crazy, and quite clearly far outside the sweet spot for RDNA as evidenced by the current RDNA cards. Which is why if this stuff is true Cerny and Sony have truly shit the bed.
So there are a two possibilities
1) Sony ran with their 2019 PS5 (~8TF 36CU APU) from the beginning and have simply tried to push clocks etc to make it even remotely competitive with the XSX. In other words, they shit the bed on the PS5. Completely. It will be hot, it will be loud and it will be as expensive to produce for worse performance than the XSX.
2) Oberon leaks aren't completely telling the entire story. Maybe they did run with the 2019 PS5, but only for the dev kits because they were far enough along the design process that they may as well fab some and use the 2019 PS5 chips and overclock them as early, low power dev kits for the 2020 PS5. Which would explain the talk of Sony dev kits being more advanced and further along than MS ones. However their target specs are not Oberon at 2Ghz but something more like the XSX chip with 54CUs at lower frequency (something that makes far more sense for a retail box) but it is not as far along in development as the 2019 Oberon target chips and thus doesn't show up on these tests. This also explains why Oberon appears to be lacking things we know that are in the PS5 - such as RT and VRS.
BC could still be used tested on these Oberon chips (two 20CU blocks with 2 disabled each), and full PS5 games could also be developed.
The final unit might then be three 20CU blocks with 2 disabled each (a clover design rather than the butterfly of the PS4Pro). They can then reduce clocks and disable 1 block to emulate PS4Pro, or reduce clock a bit more and disable 2 blocks to emulate base PS4. If PS5 really is competitive with XSX as Matt, Klee, Reiner, Moriarty and Schrier suggest this is the kind of set up I would expect, not 36CU at 2Ghz. Three 18 active 20CU blocks at frequencies closer to the sweet spot for RDNA makes way more sense for a PS5 than a 2.0Ghz chip which will be super hot, super inefficient and still super expensive (the shitting the bed scenario).
However the only evidence for the second scenario is the hearsay from those people who say they are both very powerful and very close, with some even giving the nod to the PS5. That and the lacking features of Oberon in the GitHub tests which is odd if it definitely is PS5's chip.
ok lets do the math.Those are clearly averages to the nearest 50. Which actually fit with Oberon at ~316mm² and Arden at ~360mm²
As far as we know but moving to N7P does not require any re-work and can reduce dissipated power by 10% for same clocks.
Not confirmed.
a 15% reduction in silicon size does not give you a $100 in cost savings. the APUs in the PS4 and X1 were only 100-110 dollars. Xbox was around 10% bigger which is why it cost $110. even if the cost of silicons has doubled, you are looking at $30 max.
with everything being the same. ssd, ram, cpu and the ps5 requiring a better cooling solution since they would be generating even more heat at 2.0 ghz where are you getting $399 vs $499 from?
I'm not going to claim to know the costs of such things, and the savings that would come from a 36 CU chip vs a larger one, but Richard from Digital Foundry seems to very much disagree with you. So you should take up your arguments with him, but I'm going to guess he's learned some things from working in this industry for so many years.No because in the long run it whould be more expensive that goig for a lower clock with more cu
you will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.If the sweet spot moves higher with N7P or 7nm+ then 2GHz GPU is ok.
Some rumours says they planned jaguar cpu just higher clock with 8tf and 12gb ram so still big improvement ;dyou will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
Ok so if oberon is just old devkit only simulating real and more powerful final specs why they use high clocked 36cu and not high clocked 40 ?
dont forget that AMD's patent for hardware RT has it go inside the texture mapping units which are part of the CUs along with the shader processors.
fewer CUs = fewer texture units = worse Ray tracing.
and like i pointed out, a 40 cu 2.0 ghz part gives you 10.24 tflops for 160w+ according to this graph. for 20 fewer watts you can get a 12 tflops gpu. why would sony go for 20% worse performance for 20% more power?
But would HBM even be feasible especially since we got word that the next generation of chips from AMD were going to go GDDR6 instead of HBM due to the size? I know someone had posted a link about it earlier today.
If you go big die do you also factor in moving to 7nm+ or even 5nm later in the gen to reduce cost - or will process cost increases potentially mean you don't save anything?
There are indications Oberon is part of an APU: The results tabs are labelled "iGPU", for integrated GPU. Oberon (like Ariel) should be part of an APU, but they were testing only the GPU part, the iGPU.
What's the source about the 300mm² GPU ? that looks like a rough average.
may be this is all about $399 spot without having any heavy lossesyou will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
7nm+ is your opinion or that is what Aquarius's says?Today I don't see Aquariusz mention any significant difference in GPU size. He thinks it's something else that makes Arden a little bigger.
In my opinion, Arden has 64CUs with 8 disabled. PS5 OBR may have 56CUs with 4~8 disabled. Arden uses RT ASIC so it has larger chip (350mm2) .
All of them use 7nm+.
you will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
There isn't a single insider suggesting that Cerny shat the bed. I am going to reserve judgment until we know more. We have heard these are close, and performing well. They are meeting or exceeding our initial expectations.
richard has been wrong this whole time. he thinks the series x is a 300w console....I'm not going to claim to know the costs of such things, and the savings that would come from a 36 CU chip vs a larger one, but Richard from Digital Foundry seems to very much disagree with you. So you should take up your arguments with him, but I'm going to guess he's learned some things from working in this industry for so many years.
Richard says in yesterday's video the silicon would be "significantly" cheaper to produce when it has a smaller chip.
Who is he/she?Today I don't see Aquariusz mention any significant difference in GPU size. He thinks it's something else that makes Arden a little bigger.
In my opinion, Arden has 64CUs with 8 disabled. PS5 OBR may have 56CUs with 4~8 disabled. Arden uses RT ASIC so it has larger chip (350mm2) .
All of them use 7nm+.
Enjoy the ride!Two things I have in the forefront of my mind when I read all this spec warring...
Kinda helps me keep all the crazy speculation and console warrior narrative building in perspective.
- If one console is more powerful it will be more expensive.
- If MS were sure their console is more powerful they would have said so.
That said, I'm in a window seat on the PS5 HBM crazy train 😂
Aegon - Mark Cerny and the Sony software team aren't idiots. Have some faith that you might not know the whole picture. Have some reserve that 🐐s like Schrier, Klee, and others have hinted that the machines are close. No one fucked up to the degree your suggesting because if they did - things would change.you will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
I believe the quad-core Steamroller was also clocked at 3.2 GHz, and early on it went from 2GB RAM to 4GB up until late 2012, IIRC.Yeah, I figured it'd be expansive but I wonder if going the multiple design route is more the norm than going with a single design. Or vice versa.
Super interesting! I don't remember anything about a 4-core CPU for the PS4 back then in 2012 :)
Richard says in yesterday's video the silicon would be "significantly" cheaper to produce when it has a smaller chip.
So why leaked arden for xsx has 56cu and there is no hints for other big console apu only sparkman that is smaller and probably for lockhart ?There can be many reasons. The most simple is that a 5700 is a binned part and so AMD has many of them lying around for cheap. Why pay more for a placeholder die that isn't going to match the final hardware performance anyway?
This post is either going to either look brilliant in a couple months, or hilariously bad. Will be fun to see what the outcome is. :)richard has been wrong this whole time. he thinks the series x is a 300w console....
and you dont need to be a hardware engineer to figure this out. its simple math.
the leaks suggest that arden has 40% more CUs. that doesnt make the chip 40% bigger. scroll up and you will see duke's calculations. 1 dual cu is roughly 5mm2. for 50mm2 you can get 20 CUs. other leaks show that arden is only 50mm2 bigger than the ps5 apu. thats 15%. silicon is silicon. you saw in my link that 10% bigger basically mean 10% more expensive.
so again, i am asking you since richard isnt here. where are you getting the remaining $80 from?
~316 for GPU. Puts it nicely above Navi10 251mm2 :)Those are clearly averages to the nearest 50. Which actually fit with Oberon at ~316mm² and Arden at ~360mm²
Like Mario and Princess "Beach." 😏In all fairness, this isn't even the worst piece of dialogue in the game.
316 for APU actually.
This is exactly why a 2Ghz 36CU APU makes no sense whatsoever. It isn't going to save Sony any money over the XSX APU, yet it will be significantly worse in performance.
All chips in consoles go wide and slow for a reason - it's far more efficient perf/watt.
Which is why I think the two possibilities are that Sony have colossally cocked up somewhere along the way and overclocking their chip and having awful perf/watt is all they could do to claw back some of the performance differential or there is something else going on and we don't have the whole picture.
If you look at top 30 most sold games per platform they are about 95% the same 3rd party multiplatform games. Average consumer doesn't buy even that many games in a generation but anyway.As I've said before, the average consumer has no clue about teraflops. Having amazing first party exclusives are what is going to sell a next gen console - simple as that.
The nerd in me is looking forward to a beastly 12tf machine also.
9tf is ample power along with the improved CPU and SSD. Bring on the next gen!