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Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT8| - The Dark Tower (See Staff Post)
- Thread starter Mecha Meister
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As I've said before, the average consumer has no clue about teraflops. Having amazing first party exclusives are what is going to sell a next gen console - simple as that.
The nerd in me is looking forward to a beastly 12tf machine also.
9tf is ample power along with the improved CPU and SSD. Bring on the next gen!
The nerd in me is looking forward to a beastly 12tf machine also.
9tf is ample power along with the improved CPU and SSD. Bring on the next gen!
a 15% reduction in silicon size does not give you a $100 in cost savings. the APUs in the PS4 and X1 were only 100-110 dollars. Xbox was around 10% bigger which is why it cost $110. even if the cost of silicons has doubled, you are looking at $30 max.
with everything being the same. ssd, ram, cpu and the ps5 requiring a better cooling solution since they would be generating even more heat at 2.0 ghz where are you getting $399 vs $499 from?
Check the link and scroll down for the 300mm2 Oberon comment.
Komachi acknowledges this leaker
You're seeing this entire discussion through the eyes of specs. To the average consumer a 9 tflop machine with a great CPU and an amazing SSD is premium and the latest technology. You wouldn't call a Ferrari a crappy every man car because the latest Lamborghini has 100 extra horsepower.
It seems to make all the sense. They're maximizing the 36 CU as best they can.
I'm using the term hardcore because Sony themselves came with that? So unless you are saying Sony themselves are just misusing the words for the niche, hardcore and that the price will reflect the advanced feature set. i don't know why they would mean for the Enthusiastist. Those are official words so why wouldn't i use it? Read the article.
What about an 399$ system makes it niche and for the hardcore and that the price will be appealing to gamers in light of its advanced feature set? I just don't understand that and again something Sony came up with not me.
Source about the price point:
About the bolded. What are you talking about? Why are you arguing about stuff i did not say? Second, just because you're very happy with a 9Tf system doesn't mean i, or someone else have to be and please stop putting words in my mouth. To be honest i also don't really know "wtf" you are arguing about. All kinds of things i did not speak about.
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Chinese forum. komachi linked it.
ampere gpu in next nintendo console :D #deaddreams
If true 9vs12tf, digital must be pleased... Their head to heads would be boring if both were more or less same power
If you see all the aquariusz posts you will know all of his info is about full chips with complete I/O die, not part of APU.
His info is crazily accurate. Who else gives the accurate die size of NAVI 10 back in January?
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Yeah, I'm hoping that we'll get a PlayStation Meeting in February. I can't wait longer than that. :lol
Feels like we already got some solid Xbox info from Microsoft, even though it wasn't that concrete. Can wait a little longer for more information there.
HBM isn't going to make a 9.2TF GPU match a 12TF one though. It's a nice and interesting memory technology, but ultimately if the flops aren't there they aren't there.
The real issue is that because Sony are pushing such high clocks and thermal envelopes for far their yield is probably unlikely to be any better than the 12TF chips MS is producing which only have to hit 1675Mhz for 12TF. 2Ghz is absolutely crazy, and quite clearly far outside the sweet spot for RDNA as evidenced by the current RDNA cards. Which is why if this stuff is true Cerny and Sony have truly shit the bed.
So there are a two possibilities
1) Sony ran with their 2019 PS5 (~8TF 36CU APU) from the beginning and have simply tried to push clocks etc to make it even remotely competitive with the XSX. In other words, they shit the bed on the PS5. Completely. It will be hot, it will be loud and it will be as expensive to produce for worse performance than the XSX.
2) Oberon leaks aren't completely telling the entire story. Maybe they did run with the 2019 PS5, but only for the dev kits because they were far enough along the design process that they may as well fab some and use the 2019 PS5 chips and overclock them as early, low power dev kits for the 2020 PS5. Which would explain the talk of Sony dev kits being more advanced and further along than MS ones. However their target specs are not Oberon at 2Ghz but something more like the XSX chip with 54CUs at lower frequency (something that makes far more sense for a retail box) but it is not as far along in development as the 2019 Oberon target chips and thus doesn't show up on these tests. This also explains why Oberon appears to be lacking things we know that are in the PS5 - such as RT and VRS.
BC could still be used tested on these Oberon chips (two 20CU blocks with 2 disabled each), and full PS5 games could also be developed.
The final unit might then be three 20CU blocks with 2 disabled each (a clover design rather than the butterfly of the PS4Pro). They can then reduce clocks and disable 1 block to emulate PS4Pro, or reduce clock a bit more and disable 2 blocks to emulate base PS4. If PS5 really is competitive with XSX as Matt, Klee, Reiner, Moriarty and Schrier suggest this is the kind of set up I would expect, not 36CU at 2Ghz. Three 18 active 20CU blocks at frequencies closer to the sweet spot for RDNA makes way more sense for a PS5 than a 2.0Ghz chip which will be super hot, super inefficient and still super expensive (the shitting the bed scenario).
However the only evidence for the second scenario is the hearsay from those people who say they are both very powerful and very close, with some even giving the nod to the PS5. That and the lacking features of Oberon in the GitHub tests which is odd if it definitely is PS5's chip.
With that difference the power advantage would just be a given. With close performance you'll have rabid fans clamouring for any "win" they can get from DF analyses.
Sounds like what TrueAudio Next does. Do you think the 'custom unit' is some extra/dedicated silicon within the APU?
No because in the long run it whould be more expensive that goig for a lower clock with more cu
This is exactly why a 2Ghz 36CU APU makes no sense whatsoever. It isn't going to save Sony any money over the XSX APU, yet it will be significantly worse in performance.
All chips in consoles go wide and slow for a reason - it's far more efficient perf/watt.
Which is why I think the two possibilities are that Sony have colossally cocked up somewhere along the way and overclocking their chip and having awful perf/watt is all they could do to claw back some of the performance differential or there is something else going on and we don't have the whole picture.
Your wording is literally based on a article in July by a CEO of Sony not the playstation lead which is Jim Ryan. His interview which was done last month comes off different.
Sony's Jim Ryan: We had to make changes to deliver our PlayStation 5 dream
Jim Ryan wants to have a word.PlayStation's boss wanted to address some of the points that were raised in an article we…
www.gamesindustry.biz
It's possible as the console evolves and develops that their wording and strat can change. Jim talks about getting people moved over to PS5 at a crazy pace. To me that speaks they expect it to not only sell very well, but also for everyone to move all of their digital libraries over without issue.
That to me says they are more price conscious, will they be $499? Possibly. Could they just eat the cost and sell it at $399, probably.
You keep talking hardcore yet, your on a site that literally is for those such to discuss these things. Microsoft is making a console that will in terms of it's feature set if they are going that route will be aimed at the enthusiast crowd. PS5 is going to be for them too, but may be more price conscious for mainstream migration over to the new platform.
Which has always been their focus.
If the sweet spot moves higher with N7P or 7nm+ then 2GHz GPU is ok.
Those are clearly averages to the nearest 50. Which actually fit with Oberon at ~316mm² and Arden at ~360mm²Chinese forum. komachi linked it.
Never said that? And I actually hinted that these tests were just specific tests for those chips, and more than likely was something that was being revised. Also earlier in this thread I talked about how if they did get a good deal for early devkits on HBM2 memory for what ever AMD gave them to work with would be why devkit wise it seemed like they were more far along than Microsoft. Microsoft was probably waiting on chips, and I would argue I don't think this chip is final.
With CES literally a week away, it feels like newer chips are being tested as we speak and that those old tests were probably data to compare to the ones getting announced and being spinned current;y.
ok lets do the math.
- 251 mm2 40 CU GPU
- 40 mm2 CPU with 1/4 cache
- that leaves us 25mm2 for hardware rt, i/o, bus etc. is that enough?
duke told me that you dont need the full 251mm2 die for consoles. that is the only way the math works because iirc it was speculated that hardware rt will take up 10% of the die. so that alone is 25mm2 which brings us to 316mm2 with no space for the memory bus, i/o and all the other stuff linking the cpu to gpu and ram.
As far as we know but moving to N7P does not require any re-work and can reduce dissipated power by 10% for same clocks.
Today I don't see Aquariusz mention any significant difference in GPU size. He thinks it's something else that makes Arden a little bigger.
In my opinion, Arden has 64CUs with 8 disabled. PS5 OBR may have 56CUs with 4~8 disabled. Arden uses RT ASIC so it has larger chip (350mm2) .
All of them use 7nm+.
In my opinion, Arden has 64CUs with 8 disabled. PS5 OBR may have 56CUs with 4~8 disabled. Arden uses RT ASIC so it has larger chip (350mm2) .
All of them use 7nm+.
a 15% reduction in silicon size does not give you a $100 in cost savings. the APUs in the PS4 and X1 were only 100-110 dollars. Xbox was around 10% bigger which is why it cost $110. even if the cost of silicons has doubled, you are looking at $30 max.
with everything being the same. ssd, ram, cpu and the ps5 requiring a better cooling solution since they would be generating even more heat at 2.0 ghz where are you getting $399 vs $499 from?
I'm not going to claim to know the costs of such things, and the savings that would come from a 36 CU chip vs a larger one, but Richard from Digital Foundry seems to very much disagree with you. So you should take up your arguments with him, but I'm going to guess he's learned some things from working in this industry for so many years.
Richard says in yesterday's video the silicon would be "significantly" cheaper to produce when it has a smaller chip.
you will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
Some rumours says they planned jaguar cpu just higher clock with 8tf and 12gb ram so still big improvement ;dyou will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
There can be many reasons. The most simple is that a 5700 is a binned part and so AMD has many of them lying around for cheap. Why pay more for a placeholder die that isn't going to match the final hardware performance anyway?
I think the "tested Oberon" in the Github leaks is a multi-chip module (MCM) containing a 5700 and desktop Ryzen CPU chiplet die.
If the dies already exist there is no engineering design cost, and packaging costs are minuscule in comparison. So cobbling together an MCM from existing AMD chips for a devkit makes a lot of sense.
I could be wrong and the retail part could be 36CUs clocked at 2GHz, and that would be fine, but I think it's unlikely given that clocking that high would shit on your yields—which is the primary reason you would choose a smaller GPU in the first place.
Yup. It just doesn't hang together.
If the tested and leaked Oberon is an MCM made up from existing GPU and CPU dies, the 5700 already contains a GDDR6 memory controller on die, so of course you would see GDDR in the leaks.
Provided the above is the case, there's no reason to assume GDDR has to be present in the final console retail design.
You will factor is cost reductions from future die shrinks, regardless of the size of initial APU die you go with. That said, starting with a bigger die will simply shift the cost reduction curve up, so it takes longer to reach that sweet spot retail price (if even possible).
I would argue this is strong evidence of an MCM rather than monolithic APU die.
Two things I have in the forefront of my mind when I read all this spec warring...
That said, I'm in a window seat on the PS5 HBM crazy train 😂
- If one console is more powerful it will be more expensive.
- If MS were sure their console is more powerful they would have said so.
That said, I'm in a window seat on the PS5 HBM crazy train 😂
may be this is all about $399 spot without having any heavy lossesyou will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
you will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
Agreed, although, wasn't the indication from the patent that the custom SSD design would actually be cheaper than PC SSDs?
IF the rumored specs are real, how would that be Cerny shitting the bed? He was given a target budget to work with and as long as he hits their internal targets, he succeeded.
Also "close" is a rather subjective measure. Many people would still consider a 25% gap in only GPU performance as close. A developer has expressed that very thing in this thread and brought up how many still think the GC was close to the Xbox even though the gap was much larger than 25%. A 9TF console is still a well performing console.
Not saying these rumored specs are a lock but some of you are exaggerating how it'll be a bad thing if they were.
richard has been wrong this whole time. he thinks the series x is a 300w console....
and you dont need to be a hardware engineer to figure this out. its simple math.
the leaks suggest that arden has 40% more CUs. that doesnt make the chip 40% bigger. scroll up and you will see duke's calculations. 1 dual cu is roughly 5mm2. for 50mm2 you can get 20 CUs. other leaks show that arden is only 50mm2 bigger than the ps5 apu. thats 15%. silicon is silicon. you saw in my link that 10% bigger basically mean 10% more expensive.
so again, i am asking you since richard isnt here. where are you getting the remaining $80 from?
Aegon - Mark Cerny and the Sony software team aren't idiots. Have some faith that you might not know the whole picture. Have some reserve that 🐐s like Schrier, Klee, and others have hinted that the machines are close. No one fucked up to the degree your suggesting because if they did - things would change.you will have to move the sweet spot much higher to get 2ghz to be 'ok'. and there is no indication that its 7nm+.
So sweet spot for 40 CUs is 1700mhz. To get 10% more performance your tdp is going up almost 100% from 110w to 210w.
it makes ZERO sense. The only explanation for such a shitty design is what Doctor Avatar just gave... i.e., sony fucked up in ways no one can imagine. you would need to have some of the dumbest interns designing this console. Cerny is going around talking about this fastest ssd of all time, a dedicated 3d audio chip which is most likely the psvr 2.0 processor chip bolted on the board and fancy new controller features. why would they try to save $15-20 on the silicon when they are spending extra on dedicated processors and fastest ssds known to man?
PS5 will be a 🐐 with the best software. I hope you like Mass Effect.
I believe the quad-core Steamroller was also clocked at 3.2 GHz, and early on it went from 2GB RAM to 4GB up until late 2012, IIRC.
If DukeBlueBall 's speculation/analysis and the Chinese forum die sizes are correct, a difference between a 360mmsq and 316mmsq die size isn't going to be a "significant difference" in cost.
In fact, if the smaller 36CU die is clocked well past the inflection point (knee) on the clock versus power curve, the impact on overall console cost is going to make it the more expensive option....
...which is why it doesn't quite make sense.
So why leaked arden for xsx has 56cu and there is no hints for other big console apu only sparkman that is smaller and probably for lockhart ?
This post is either going to either look brilliant in a couple months, or hilariously bad. Will be fun to see what the outcome is. :)
I agree with this. It would be much, much easier to accept this leak at face value as next gen specs if it didn't use 2Ghz.
If you look at top 30 most sold games per platform they are about 95% the same 3rd party multiplatform games. Average consumer doesn't buy even that many games in a generation but anyway.
Saying just first party exclusives sell consoles is false. Otherwise Wii U would have been a remarkable success.
Success of a console is a combination of things like price, image, games available, what your friends are buying, positive word of mouth etc.
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