PS5 and Xbox Series speculation |OT11| Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War [NEW NEWS, NEW THREAD - CHECK OUT THE STAFF POST]

[chromatic9]

I'm wondering more what the price has risen from exactly. Were Sony going for a $450 retail with price to manufacture around the $420 mark?

I doubt the price to make a PS5 was $380 like the PS4 and it's risen to $450 but if so then it does point to it being low TF $399 system that's gone awry.

Of course this affects MS as well.

If the article is misleading, the price to manufacture has always been in the 450-470 range for a $499 system and both are coming in close in performance and specs.

What would be bad for Sony is they planned on 399 retail and won't eat the big loss if components have increased, MS had gone for a $499 system and is willing to take a loss or even that MS has gone bigger with an original plan of selling a would be $550-599 system at $499 with an entry level system $299-350 and is still willing to eat the cost of the price increase of components.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Seems like a dangerous extrapolation to consider the build cost as confirmation of a 2 GHz GPU clock.

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See Nostradamus response

PS5 and Xbox Series speculation |OT11| Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War [NEW NEWS, NEW THREAD - CHECK OUT THE STAFF POST]

I agree, the more expensive than usual cooling system kinda implies high clocks.

www.resetera.com

 

[DriftingSpirit]

"confirmation"

 

[Deleted member 12635]

"confirmation"

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That is true, the wording "confirmation" I used is not appropriate. "Highly likely" would have been a better wording!
Will edit that.

 

[Deleted member 52190]

I do not think that means they power down the console. It is just confirmation that they really are going for 2 Ghz. I also assume Github was a correct data point with the 36 CUs full count at 2 Ghz. So my expectation about the PS5 doesn't change a bit because of the Bloomberg report, the opposite is the case. I am more convinced than ever about my predicted spec range though I may have to lower the CU count which would still achieve the 9.2TF. For me anything below 9 TF is off the table now!

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I think you are right on the clocks, but i disagree in the CU count, the bom being close makes me think that.

 

[III-V]

See Nostradamus response

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I would warn that user not to make the same extrapolation.

It is an indication that they have spent more on cooling. Now that likely indicates that there is more power dissipated as heat.

But it doesn't give us a GPU clock.

 

[Deleted member 10747]

"confirmation"

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This speculating article is not "confirmation"? I thought this actually confirms github.......lol

 

[Pheonix]

Hope none of them will cut awsome futures due to these reports. Or power down the console.
I have a feeling this is going to fuck everything up.

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At this stage, nothing can be cut.

Well, except size of SSD.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

I would warn that user not to make the same extrapolation.

It is an indication that they have spent more on cooling. Now that likely indicates that there is more power dissipated as heat.

But it doesn't give us a GPU clock.

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It doesn't give us the clock, but a hint on higher clocks. Otherwise why else would be the cooling "unusually expensive" ?

 

[More Butter]

It does seem like there is an opportunity for Microsoft to really put the squeeze on Sony here if they're willing to eat a loss to do so. Price XSX at $399 and XSS at $249 and it becomes highly unlikely that Sony will be able to undercut your higher-end machine, leaving XSS at a very attractive price for consumers.

Probably not all that likely to actually happen, but it would make life very tough for Sony if Microsoft were to do so.

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I don't think they are so worried about XSX as they are Lockhart price. XSX will be $500 or $600. I think Sony are waiting for Lockhart. Depending on capabilities Sony need to be close enough to the low end machine in price. Pricing $500 V a 299 Lockhart is probably what is bothering them. All of this stuff is based on specs, cost and the perceptions of the market. It's hard to predict where your product lands in that. That's probably causing them so consternation. The good news is that Sony has a keen understanding about how importing the pricing strategy is toward the beginning of a new gen and they are aiming to please their fans. It's a good sign.

 

[Kerberosorthos]

It doesn't give us the clock, but a hint on higher clocks. Otherwise why would be the cooling "unusually expensive" ?

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High clocks with small form factor is the safest bet imo.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

He never says "not significantly higher".

10% higher would be $45.0
15% higher would be $67.5

His range is basically from 2-15%, all which arguably could be considered as "higher than the PS5 build cost somewhat."

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You are using old tweets .
He did a new set after the current news.

 

[III-V]

It doesn't give us the clock, but a hint on higher clocks. Otherwise why would be the cooling "unusually expensive" ?

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Because apparently trash-tier thermal paste wouldn't cut it this time around?
Because the common PS4 Pro "jet-engine" complaints?
Because they are dissipating more power than before?

There is nothing there to confirm clock speed or GitHub as final PS5 form for that matter.

Look to MS to see how spending a bit more on cooling paid off, very quiet 1X.

I can't imagine the XSX has spent less than $1 on their cooling solution either.

You are using old tweets .
He did a new set after the current news.

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Maybe you can link it for me 'cause I have read through all the tweets from today that I saw - and quoted them!

 

[Deleted member 1589]

Takazuki Mochizuki article + MAU quote was taken from 2017

=

Github is a thing

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Because apparently trash-tier thermal paste wouldn't cut it this time around?
Because the common PS4 Pro "jet-engine" complaints?
Because they are dissipating more power than before?

There is nothing there to confirm clock speed or GitHub as final PS5 form for that matter.

Look to MS to see how spending a bit more on cooling paid off, very quiet 1X.

I can't imagine the XSX has spent less than $1 on their cooling solution either.


Maybe you can link it for me 'cause I have read through all the tweets from today that I saw - and quoted them!

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I cut the "confirm", it was bad wording by me. But for me the scenario I predicted just got more likely than ever. Doesn't mean you or anyone else has to agree with me here.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Maybe you can link it for me 'cause I have read through all the tweets from today that I saw - and quoted them!

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This is the one i talking about .
It's best not to use percentage since $20 or $30 extra on BOM cost is hundreds of million of dollars extra .
So something like $50 for eg would be significantly higher when it comes to cost .

 

[gofreak]

Next-gen PSVR-y patent, possibly... a method to allow the placement of finger sensors on a VR controller to be modified by the user depending on hand/finger size, for more accurate finger tracking.

WIPO - Search International and National Patent Collections

 

[MrKlaw]

It doesn't give us the clock, but a hint on higher clocks. Otherwise why else would be the cooling "unusually expensive" ?

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xsx likely has more cooling than current gen - look at the form factor and lots of people talking about it needing to dissipate more heat. But that's rumoured to be 54-56CUs at a lower clock

ps5 at similar Bom could be the same and would stil need 'more' cooking cost than PS4.

github suggests 2GHz, the BOM IMO doesn't increase or decrease that Chance

 

[III-V]

This is the one i talking about .
It's best not to use percentage since $20 or $30 extra on BOM cost is hundreds of million of dollars extra .

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I see that now. So you would say that a 10% difference in build cost is more than "significant"? Would not seem so to me.
Your $20 difference is 4.5%. Within 5% is "the same" to me. But I guess we would only argue semantics at that point. I can easily see a 5-12% difference in build cost given what he has said.

 

[anexanhume]

There may be doubt about PS5's target spec, but let there be no doubt XSX is targeting 12TF if their BOM is 460-520.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I see that now. So you would say that a 10% difference in build cost is more than "significant"? Would not seem so to me.
Your $20 difference is 4.5%. Within 5% is "the same" to me. But I guess we would only argue semantics at that point. I can easily see a 5-12% difference in build cost given what he has said.

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12% don't look significant because the percent is low but when you look at in money terms it's very significant .
Lets look at it this way both MS and Sony sell 10 million consoles but MS BOM is $50 more.
That is a extra cost of 500 million more if they the same price for MS.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

xsx likely has more cooling than current gen - look at the form factor and lots of people talking about it needing to dissipate more heat. But that's rumoured to be 54-56CUs at a lower clock

ps5 at similar Bom could be the same and would stil need 'more' cooking cost than PS4.

github suggests 2GHz, the BOM IMO doesn't increase or decrease that Chance

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For me the scenario I predicted just got more likely. Doesn't mean you or anyone else has to agree with me.

I base my scenario on the data point Github gave us and on the quote "Most of the components for the console have been locked down, the people said, including the cooling system, which is unusually expensive at a few dollars per unit." from the Bloomberg article.

 

[lynux3]

There may be doubt about PS5's target spec, but let there be no doubt XSX is targeting 12TF if their BOM is 460-520.

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You can't doubt something thats been ambiguously confirmed.

 

[III-V]

There may be doubt about PS5's target spec, but let there be no doubt XSX is targeting 12TF if their BOM is 460-520.

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I would rather point to a 400mm2 chip than a build cost.

12% don't look significant because the percent is low but when you look at in money terms it's very significant .
Lets look at it this way both MS and Sony sell 10 million consoles but MS BOM is $50 more.
That is a extra cost of 500 million more if they the same price for MS.

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Yes, exactly. I o expect about a $50 difference here. And I don't expect them to price match Sony. Thats what the sandwich strategy is about.

For the power hungry, they have a more expensive XSX.
For the budget conscience, they have the cheaper XSS.

The whole idea is that MS will not have to get into a price war with Sony.

 

[Deleted member 1589]

Xbox One X's cooling was expensive and unconventional.

Xbox Series X's cooling looks expensive and unconventional.

PS5's cooling is said to be expensive and unconventional- oh shit Github leak confirmed.

 

[CosmicBolt]

If it was 36cu vs 56cu rdna architecture then the difference in BOM would have been significantly higher than ps5.

ZhugeEX saying series x BOM not significantly higher than ps5, just prove how outdated github info was and that insiders were correct in saying both consoles are very close.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I would rather point to a 400mm2 chip than a build cost.


Yes, exactly. I o expect about a $50 difference here. And I don't expect them to price match Sony. Thats what the sandwich strategy is about.

For the power hungry, they have a more expensive XSX.
For the budget conscience, they have the cheaper XSS.

The whole idea is that MS will not have to get into a price war with Sony.

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Them getting into a price war will depend on Sony price IMO.
If Sony is $499 i see no problem but if Sony decide they will still be $399 or even $449 there no way i see MS being above them even with a cheaper model.

 

[Deleted member 10747]

Doesn't mean you or anyone else has to agree with me.

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Why do you sometimes do this? It's a discussion and we don't think you are the authority what is or isn't it the truth. Disagreeing is what a discussion is based on. Like exchanging saliva is for kissing.

 

[Axel Stone]

Xbox One X's cooling was expensive and unconventional.

Xbox Series X's cooling looks expensive and unconventional.

PS5's cooling is said to be expensive and unconventional- oh shit Github leak confirmed.

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The XSX cooking doesn't look expensive or unconventional to me. The form factor to allow the cooling looks unconventional, but the cooling itself is just a fan (or maybe two?) as far as we know.

 

[Kerberosorthos]

Xbox One X's cooling was expensive and unconventional.

Xbox Series X's cooling looks expensive and unconventional.

PS5's cooling is said to be expensive and unconventional- oh shit Github leak confirmed.

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How does the XSX cooling solution can look expensive when noone saw it yet ? If anything you could conclude from the form factor that they can choose a more cheaper and simpler cooling solution than in One X.

 

[lynux3]

How does the XSX cooling solution can look expensive when noone saw it yet ? If anything you could conclude from the form factor that they can choose a more cheaper and simpler cooling solution than in One X.

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https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2019/12/12/microsoft-unveils-xbox-series-x/

Xbox Series X will be our fastest, most powerful console ever and set a new bar for performance, speed and compatibility, allowing you to bring your gaming legacy, thousands of games from three generations and more forward with you. Its industrial design enables us to deliver four times the processing power of Xbox One X in the most quiet and efficient way, something that is critically important in delivering truly immersive gameplay.

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Seems to me Microsoft isn't cheaping out on their cooling solution either.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Why do you sometimes do this? It's a discussion and we don't think you are the authority what is or isn't it the truth. Disagreeing is what a discussion is based on. Like exchanging saliva is for kissing.

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It is a "figure of speech" in the context that was below. But for some reason you cut that out ...

 

[III-V]

Disagreeing is what a discussion is based on. Like exchanging saliva is for kissing.

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Folks obviously Sony blew their budget on a cooling solution. Better off getting a firehose amirite?

 

[Kerberosorthos]

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2019/12/12/microsoft-unveils-xbox-series-x/

Seems to me Microsoft isn't cheaping out on their cooling solution either.

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....lead by the from factor and also stated by Spencer himself.

 

[Dinjooh]

You guys use saliva when kissing? Savages.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Folks obviously Sony blew their budget on a cooling solution. Better off getting a firehose amirite?

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Nobody complains about their BOM, right?
Some (including me) just think that the "unusually expensive" cooling solution is a hint to those alleged higher clocks we talk about a year now, means even before Github.
#speculation

 

[klik]

Everytime i look at those PS4 revenue graphs i have a feeling Sony made more money on PS4 than it did on PS1/PS2/PS3 combined. This has been incredible generation for them, i hope this continues with PS5 too

 

[DrDeckard]

Yeah I can see ms announcing 499 to 599 hoping sony goes 449 to 549 then they announce Lockhart at 299to bring the heat to sony

 

[SharpX68K]

If it was 36cu vs 56cu rdna architecture then the difference in BOM would have been significantly higher than ps5.

ZhugeEX saying series x BOM not significantly higher than ps5, just prove how outdated github info was and that insiders were correct in saying both consoles are very close.

Click to shrink...

If that pans out, maybe it'll end up being 48cu vs 56cu, with a higher clock on Sony's GPU, making the difference extremely small.

 

[gozu]

If it was 36cu vs 56cu rdna architecture then the difference in BOM would have been significantly higher than ps5.

ZhugeEX saying series x BOM not significantly higher than ps5, just prove how outdated github info was and that insiders were correct in saying both consoles are very close.

Click to shrink...

ZhugeEX predicted an average of $30 extra BOM cost for SeX. That is more than enough to upgrade from 36 to 56 CUs.

With this new info, I am pretty sure the PS5 will come in around 10 TF. The marketing power of 10 Tflops is way better than 9 Tflops so I don't see them sticking with 9.2 unless their expensive cooling really can't handle it.

Bottom line, both consoles will come in at $500. MS will take a slightly larger loss than Sony at launch. Maybe close to a billion in losses the first year, compared to half that for Sony. At that price, Microsoft will definitely have the best hardware and I expect them to go toe to toe with Sony in 2021 sales as the "30% more powerful!: arguments start swirling around on forums, youtube and school recess.

Could Cerny really have lost the design battle? I don't want to believe it yet, but yeah, maybe.

 

[Deleted member 12635]

ZhugeEX predicted an average of $30 extra BOM cost for SeX. That is more than enough to upgrade from 36 to 56 CUs.

With this new info, I am pretty sure the PS5 will come in around 10 TF. The marketing power of 10 Tflops is way better than 9 Tflops so I don't see them sticking with 9.2 unless their expensive cooling really can't handle it.

Bottom line, both consoles will come in at $500. MS will take a slightly larger loss than Sony at launch. Maybe close to a billion in losses the first year, compared to half that for Sony. At that price, Microsoft will definitely have the best console and I expect them to go toe to toe with Sony in 2021 sales as the "35% more powerful!: arguments start swirling around on forums, youtube and school recess.

Could Cerny really have lost the design battle? I don't want to believe it yet, but yeah, maybe.

Click to shrink...

10 TF would mean though that they activate all 40 CUs at 2 Ghz, or do you expect they try to clock even higher than 2.Ghz just with 36CUs?

 

[gofreak]

ZhugeEX predicted an average of $30 extra BOM cost for SeX. That is more than enough to upgrade from 36 to 56 CUs.

With this new info, I am pretty sure the PS5 will come in around 10 TF. The marketing power of 10 Tflops is way better than 9 Tflops so I don't see them sticking with 9.2 unless their expensive cooling really can't handle it.

Bottom line, both consoles will come in at $500. MS will take a slightly larger loss than Sony at launch. Maybe close to a billion in losses the first year, compared to half that for Sony. At that price, Microsoft will definitely have the best console and I expect them to go toe to toe with Sony in 2021 sales as the "35% more powerful!: arguments start swirling around on forums, youtube and school recess.

Could Cerny really have lost the design battle? I don't want to believe it yet, but yeah, maybe.

Click to shrink...

If Sony isn't willing to take the same margin loss as MS, that's not something that reflects poorly on the design. Cerny will be working with the cost he's been given to work with. The final price wrt that is a business more than a hardware engineering choice. Cerny's design relative to his cost may well be as optimal as Microsoft's, or more... we couldn't quite judge it poorly because of a margins choice.

 

[lynux3]

....lead by the from factor and also stated by Spencer himself.

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And that somehow indicates that Xbox Series X's thermal solution is cheap?

 

[III-V]

Nobody complains about their BOM, right?
Some (including me) just think that the "unusually expensive" cooling solution is a hint of those alleged higher clocks we talk about a year now, means even before Github.
#speculation

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Of course it is fine speculation Colbert. I think people grow tired of hearing that only grounded speculation must include not more than 36CU from the get-go.

ZhugeEX predicted an average of $30 extra BOM cost for SeX. That is more than enough to upgrade from 36 to 56 CUs.

With this new info, I am pretty sure the PS5 will come in around 10 TF. The marketing power of 10 Tflops is way better than 9 Tflops so I don't see them sticking with 9.2 unless their expensive cooling really can't handle it.

Bottom line, both consoles will come in at $500. MS will take a slightly larger loss than Sony at launch. Maybe close to a billion in losses the first year, compared to half that for Sony. At that price, Microsoft will definitely have the best console and I expect them to go toe to toe with Sony in 2021 sales as the "35% more powerful!: arguments start swirling around on forums, youtube and school recess.

Could Cerny really have lost the design battle? I don't want to believe it yet, but yeah, maybe.

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What is the precedent for MS becoming the loss leader with $1e9 losses in the first year?

 

[Dust]

In any case both systems will probably have price bump from the original idea.
XSX might break over $499.

 

[foamdino]

10 TF would mean though that they activate all 40 CUs at 2 Ghz, or do you expect they try to clock even higher than 2.Ghz just with 36CUs?

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I personally think that 2.2Ghz wouldn't be out of reach as I think that Navi allows for significantly higher clocks and the 5700 cards (which everyone seems to be assuming are the be-all and end-all of clocks, heat, performance [and in the case of the PS5 maximum CU count]) are the first gen through 7nm. The next set of Navi cards will have 10-15% efficiency gains again as AMD learn more about how to optimise the process+design to work together - I'd stake my avatar on that, except I'm already in an avatar bet on reveal dates...

 

[Deleted member 12635]

Of course it is fine speculation Colbert. I think people grow tired of hearing that only grounded speculation must include not more than 36CU from the get-go.

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Give me a data point with other numbers from a legit leak/source that me and others can check (including DF) and I happily will change my mind. But for the moment it is the only data point we have.

 

[Kerberosorthos]

And that somehow indicates that Xbox Series X's thermal solution is cheap?

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Not cheap but not unusul expensive as they don't need to control the heat within a small form factor. Just imagine throwing in a APU (initially created for small form factors) into an almost small PC tower like design.

The costs for a bigger housing is ridiculous small compared to a cooling solution especially designed for small form factors with a powerful APU inside.

Just imagine both Sony and MS would have the exact same APU but one is using a tradtional small housing and one is using a big tower kind of housing. See clear now ?

 

[lynux3]

Give me a data point with other numbers from a legit leak/source that me and others can check (including DF) I happily will change my mind. But for the moment it is the data we have.

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You seem fine with Xbox Series X being 12TF without any data; why not include more than 36CUs for PS5?

Not cheap but not unusul expensive as they don't need to control the heat within a small form factor. Just imagine throwing in a APU (initially created for small form factors) into an almost small PC tower like design.

The costs for a bigger housing is ridiculous small compared to a cooling solution especially designed for small form factors with a powerful APU inside.

Just imagine both Sony and MS would have the exact same APU but one is using a tradtional small housing and one is using a big tower kind of housing. See clear now ?

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I'm just saying that the casing is associated and just as important for thermal dissipation, not just a heat sink and fan. To me it sounds like Microsoft will be using a large, low RPM fan and a heat sink with enough surface area/fins/whatever to keep temperatures under control.

 

[foamdino]

Give me a data point with other numbers from a legit leak/source that me and others can check (including DF) I happily will change my mind. But for the moment it is the data we have.

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To be fair, it's also the data that fits your personal narrative.