Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation |OT11| All Hell Has Broken Loose. CONTEST INSIDE!

How many teraflops will next gen consoles be

  • Some

    Votes: 6 8.5%
  • Many

    Votes: 11 15.5%
  • The cast of Taxi (1978 - 1983)

    Votes: 9 12.7%
  • None

    Votes: 4 5.6%
  • As many walnuts as I can fit in this bag

    Votes: 15 21.1%
  • If a moose is in a forest, could it bite itself?

    Votes: 9 12.7%
  • 1.21 jigawatts

    Votes: 17 23.9%

  • Total voters
    71

LordBlodgett

Member
Jan 10, 2020
179
They would win mindshare like they did with the ps4 although not as much as xbox screwed up, probably won't be a huge effect in the initial launch but would make a difference in the months after.
It may make sense after the launch window then. Look at this a different way. If both Microsoft and Sony manufacture 15 million consoles to be sold during the first six months and drop them at $499 they are probably still going to sell them all. Why drop them at $399 then? There will end up being shortages in supply, and they will lose a ton of money in the process? Even with the PS3 where most models sold were $599 at launch they still sold out, and continued having supply issues through the first six months. Early adopters will pay the price for hardware early on, and have shown willing to do that over and over.
 

IkarugaDE

Member
Feb 3, 2020
72
Man this thead has been going places (not particularly productive places) since last night lol.

I've been preparing myself mentally for a long time now, but a minimum $649 launch price PS5 is going to hurt.

Really hoping I can get $200 off trading-in a pro.
I think we all can expect the absolute maximum price lays in 500$/€.
 
Oct 26, 2017
5,580
United Kingdom
[...]
What I think is important is what is said when something is actually said.
Agreed.

lol haha. i will gladly take the L if this turns out to be a big old nothing burger.
I'm pretty sure you'll be delighted by the consoles when we finally have all the details. There will invariably be some minor niggles that may disappoint some, but in the face of the incredible next-gen games that will get showcased, none of us will care by the time we finally get to sit down to play them.

I would say 50-70% of the cost of a modern console is tied to modern manufacturing nodes (APU, RAM, NAND, IO, Wifi/BT radios). Those nodes are no longer cost reducing. The age of the rapidly reduced console MSRP is over.
[...]
Cost reduction from silicon scaling is less of a sure thing, for sure.

On the other hand, investment in manufacturing capacity to push up supply can still put a downward pressure on wafer pricing when all is said and done.
 

Kyolux

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,346
NCR, Canada

LordBlodgett

Member
Jan 10, 2020
179
What if it’s not the hardware that’s holding up the reveal, but the software? Perhaps Sony wants to reveal the PS5 with an E3 2016-like 1st Party blowout (since the last big 1st party game they announced was GoT in 2017), but not all the games are ready to be shown yet?

Maybe GG, SSM need more time to polish because it’s their gameplay demos that will showcase the hardware as Ryan said. Which is really important if their hardware actually is going to be weaker.
We never talk about software in here! Haha. This is actually an interesting what if.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,982
APU, RAM, NAND, IO, Wifi/BT radios). Those nodes are no longer cost reducing. The age of the rapidly reduced console MSRP is over.
Is that really true?

don’t they have fixed price decreases in their deal with AMD over time, so that they can lower prices on slim models and such? And RAM prices go down, along with NAND, as economies of scale increase the amount being ordered right? Prices have to always come down over time, as parts are new, exotic and difficult to make at first but over time more supply is ordered, from a variety of companies, and then it becomes faster and cheaper to make those components.

I think the age of rapidly reducing console prices are over but not because of that, because they figured out with temp Ps3/360 sales during promotions in early 2010s that consumers will buy a cheaper console at certain periods vs always having the console at that reduced price year round.

like I’m sure they could’ve made Xbox One S and PS4 slim profitable at $199 by now, and by late 2017 or mid 2018, but they believe $199 sales during e3, summer, holidays drive more traffic to their platforms vs $199 year round
 

LordBlodgett

Member
Jan 10, 2020
179
Already answered. Most of his reports were actually far from being right like the one about Nintendo NX ( Industry leading chip ?????? ) , Nintendo looking to ship 25-30 M console in 2018 or Switch Pro out in 2019 ( will not even be out in 2020).
Yeah, I saw your responses after I had already replied to you. After looking a little I see what you are talking about. On the other hand he is not a bullshit "insider", and most of his reporting is considered very good or high quality for the Japanese business side of things, but take it all with a grain of salt when it comes to consoles I guess.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,705
Agreed.



I'm pretty sure you'll be delighted by the consoles when we finally have all the details. There will invariably be some minor niggles that may disappoint some, but in the face of the incredible next-gen games that will get showcased, none of us will care by the time we finally get to sit down to play them.



Cost reduction from silicon scaling is less of a sure thing, for sure.

On the other hand, investment in manufacturing capacity to push up supply can still put a downward pressure on wafer pricing when all is said and done.
Is that really true?

don’t they have fixed price decreases in their deal with AMD over time, so that they can lower prices on slim models and such? And RAM prices go down, along with NAND, as economies of scale increase the amount being ordered right? Prices have to always come down over time, as parts are new, exotic and difficult to make at first but over time more supply is ordered, from a variety of companies, and then it becomes faster and cheaper to make those components.

I think the age of rapidly reducing console prices are over but not because of that, because they figured out with temp Ps3/360 sales during promotions in early 2010s that consumers will buy a cheaper console at certain periods vs always having the console at that reduced price year round.

like I’m sure they could’ve made Xbox One S and PS4 slim profitable at $199 by now, and by late 2017 or mid 2018, but they believe $199 sales during e3, summer, holidays drive more traffic to their platforms vs $199 year round
For wafer costs to go down, either TSMC makes them cheaper, or they get more die due to better yields. The labor and materials that go into a wafer aren’t going to move much.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
2,198
St Kitts
What if it’s not the hardware that’s holding up the reveal, but the software? Perhaps Sony wants to reveal the PS5 with an E3 2016-like 1st Party blowout (since the last big 1st party game they announced was GoT in 2017), but not all the games are ready to be shown yet?

Maybe GG, SSM need more time to polish because it’s their gameplay demos that will showcase the hardware as Ryan said. Which is really important if their hardware actually is going to be weaker.
My thoughts too. Which is why I am saying that they probably want to have a lot to show when they do show stuff.
 

LordBlodgett

Member
Jan 10, 2020
179
I thought that the planned 2019 launch getting canned would leave software for 2020 in a much better position.
I thought so too, and it might be that way, we just don't know. Honestly the problem is that Sony has shown nothing even when it comes to next gen game teasers, so.......

I think Sony is afraid to stop the gravy train that is PS4 game sale profits right now, so they are walking this tight line of not showing anything PS5 related, and yet getting ready to release a console this year.
 

Astandahl

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,593
Yeah, I saw your responses after I had already replied to you. After looking a little I see what you are talking about. On the other hand he is not a bullshit "insider", and most of his reporting is considered very good or high quality for the Japanese business side of things, but take it all with a grain of salt when it comes to consoles I guess.
Yeah. Also as i said it's totally possible that PS5 will be 499 but if we are considering price fluctations we should take into consideration the multiple revenue streams both Sony and MS have ( PS Plus , Gold etc ) which are a huge part of the total revenue and could help keeping the price "low".

But anyway i've maybe been a bit too harsh about Mochizuki but yeah some of his reports were far from the truth so who knows...
 

josh924

Member
Oct 28, 2017
394
XB360 was revealed 5 months before its release. XB1 6 months.
They were both revealed 6 months before release. Remember the 360 reveal event with Elijah Wood and The Killers? That was May 2005.

And somehow, not hearing anything from sony now somehow means there is something wrong? I don't get it. I mean I am eager for news too, but I understand that its not something they have to do right now. If we get to July and still hear nothing... then we can start getting worried.
I think some people were just spoiled by the fact that the PS4 was revealed in February 2013, so they thought "Well, Sony will definitely be doing the same thing for the PS5 in February 2020. No doubt about it!". I guess it doesn't help that the Series X was revealed in December.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,128
What if it’s not the hardware that’s holding up the reveal, but the software? Perhaps Sony wants to reveal the PS5 with an E3 2016-like 1st Party blowout (since the last big 1st party game they announced was GoT in 2017), but not all the games are ready to be shown yet?

Maybe GG, SSM need more time to polish because it’s their gameplay demos that will showcase the hardware as Ryan said. Which is really important if their hardware actually is going to be weaker.
what if it’s neither hardware *or* software - and Sony simply aren’t planning to show more yet?
 

IkarugaDE

Member
Feb 3, 2020
72
Not over here. Would have been the case over half a decade ago, but not in 2020.

Edit: Is your avatar a shiba inu with a pokemon mask on it? Mine would never tolerate that lol.
Yes it is! :D

My argument for the price is easy:

1. It seems most likely the PS5 either has the same power or lays a bit under the XSX. If that is true, there is no way the PS5 costs more than the XSX.
2. The XSX will have a "competitive price". IMO over 500 dollar isn't really competitive. And it also wouldn't be competitive if the XSX is above 100$ more expensive than PS5.

So: I guess XSX will be at 500$, Ps5 the same price (at similar specs) or 50(-100)$ below if it's not so powerful.
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
2,198
St Kitts
you have my axe.


why is sony struggling to price the ps5? i thought all the specs were locked down years in advance. surely they knew about the cost of parts two years ago when they came up with the specs and designed the specs around projected cost. it was either a $399 console or a $499 console.

so what changed? whats the struggle 8 months before launch? why is it affecting the reveal? are they going to downgrade the specs and is that why they dont want to announce it before MS?
Locking down specs and locking the component prices are very different things.

And let's be fair here... nowhere have they said they don't want to release info/pricing before MS. That's just one of those theories that we ook up in here then it takes a life of its own.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with sony being silent by mid February. They can remain silent till June if they wanted. They can have closed-door meetings with retailers if they wanted to and none of us would be any the wiser. Come GDC there would be more leaks and rumors, eventually, third-party devs would start showing their games most likely running on a PC...

The funny thing is that even if MS reveals first, and let's say like 2 or 3 months before sony... it doesn't even mean they have the better-developed dev tools. Third party games may still very well be in better shape on the PS5 than on the XSX.

Point is, nothing we know,o don't know...means anything at all.
 

Kyolux

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,346
NCR, Canada
Yes it is! :D

My argument for the price is easy:

1. It seems most likely the PS5 either has the same power or lays a bit under the XSX. If that is true, there is no way the PS5 costs more than the XSX.
2. The XSX will have a "competitive price". IMO over 500 dollar isn't really competitive. And it also wouldn't be competitive if the XSX is above 100$ more expensive than PS5.

So: I guess XSX will be at 500$, Ps5 the same price (at similar specs) or 50(-100)$ below if it's not so powerful.
500 USD is like 670 CAD. (We were at parity a bit more than 5 years ago if I recall correctly) My salary didn't really change since then.

This sucks.

Add in 15% taxes. 😰
 

Cyborg

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,627
So BOM target was 400 for Sony? It only increased because materials are more expensive. And if Im correct Zhuge stated back in 2019 that Xbox had 460-520 BOM. Thats a big difference in costs in favor of the Xbox so that would imply also an power difference.
I will stop to speculate before people get angry. I will wait quietly:)
 

m23

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,510
500 USD is like 670 CAD. (We were at parity a bit more than 5 years ago if I recall correctly) My salary didn't really change since then.

This sucks.
They don't do straight conversions here in Canada, Xbox One X was $600 here ($500 in US), I don't see why it will be any different this time.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
8,501
i really cant see why are people thinking $450 BOM means more than $500 in retail, when the PS4's BoM was $372 and released for $399, are you just expecting sony to go full on greed or something with the pricing?
 
Dec 27, 2019
648
So BOM target was 400 for Sony? It only increased because materials are more expensive. And if Im correct Zhuge stated back in 2019 that Xbox had 460-520 BOM. Thats a big difference in costs in favor of the Xbox so that would imply also an power difference.
I will stop to speculate before people get angry. I will wait quietly:)
Unless Sony manufacturing some of their components themselves saves them significant money?
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,992
i am not a sony fan because they sell a hundred million consoles every gen. the wii sold a 100 million consoles, it didnt do anything for me as a gamer.

i am a sony fan because i like their internal studios who make games i like to play. a 9.2 tflops console will hold back their ambition and i dont want that. not to mention, it will hold back an entire generation just like the x1 did this gen.
Nothing was held back this gen apart from the CPU perspective. If a game struggled, developers simply went to a lower resolution or dynamic resolutions. Same thing will happen next gen if there is a power disparity.
 

Kyolux

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,346
NCR, Canada
i really cant see why are people thinking $450 BOM means more than $500 in retail, when the PS4's BoM was $372 and released for $399, are you just expecting sony to go full on greed or something with the pricing?
It was just one person that I've seen? My 649+ price was in CAD.
They don't do straight conversions here in Canada, Xbox One X was $600 here ($500 in US), I don't see why it will be any different this time.
Not always the case though. PSVR launched at 399 USD/549 CAD.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
Oct 27, 2017
942
Seattle
what if it’s neither hardware *or* software - and Sony simply aren’t planning to show more yet?
Bingo. Sony is in no rush to shift the conversation to the next generation. Not only do they have a few big releases coming out between now and then, there’s the not-so-subtle reality that you can’t buy a PS5 yet nor will you be able to any time soon. There are few reasons to kick off frenzied interest in a product you can’t actually sell.

They’ll have a nice, orderly plan leading up to the holiday season but there’s zero time pressure right now. It will happen when they think it makes the most sense, and likely continue to dribble information over time, attempting to crescendo interest at launch.
 
Oct 26, 2017
5,580
United Kingdom
So BOM target was 400 for Sony? It only increased because materials are more expensive. And if Im correct Zhuge stated back in 2019 that Xbox had 460-520 BOM. Thats a big difference in costs in favor of the Xbox so that would imply also an power difference.
I will stop to speculate before people get angry. I will wait quietly:)
Zhuge said BOM + manufacturing costs for Xbox. Seems everyone is forgetting this distinction.

Which puts PS5 and XSX on a more level playing field of $450 vs $460 for BOM.

Regardless, a $540 total cost for XSX would point to a $599 price-point. I don't think that's a price point the mainstream gaming market is going to be able to swallow easily, regardless of any difference in hardware performance (and even a 12 vs 9TF difference wouldn't be able to justify that kind of price differential).

i really cant see why are people thinking $450 BOM means more than $500 in retail, when the PS4's BoM was $372 and released for $399, are you just expecting sony to go full on greed or something with the pricing?
Ssshhhhhh!!

It's not time for calm, level-headed rationality. It's time for panic, anxiety and proclamations of the world coming to an end.
 

Wereroku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,062
So BOM target was 400 for Sony? It only increased because materials are more expensive. And if Im correct Zhuge stated back in 2019 that Xbox had 460-520 BOM. Thats a big difference in costs in favor of the Xbox so that would imply also an power difference.
I will stop to speculate before people get angry. I will wait quietly:)
Zhuge said that the 460-520 included the same cost increases that are being talked about here. So 450 versus 460-520.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,033
you monster
500 USD is like 670 CAD. (We were at parity a bit more than 5 years ago if I recall correctly) My salary didn't really change since then.

This sucks.

Add in 15% taxes. 😰
that blows. You should be looking.
So BOM target was 400 for Sony? It only increased because materials are more expensive. And if Im correct Zhuge stated back in 2019 that Xbox had 460-520 BOM. Thats a big difference in costs in favor of the Xbox so that would imply also an power difference.
I will stop to speculate before people get angry. I will wait quietly:)
Nowhere was $400 implied as the budget. All we know was less than $450.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,360
London
just a quick question that obviously got answered many moons ago, i'm just curious.
How does Zhuge come to his BOM predictions, is it just speculation/guessing or actual inside information?
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,194
So BOM target was 400 for Sony? It only increased because materials are more expensive. And if Im correct Zhuge stated back in 2019 that Xbox had 460-520 BOM. Thats a big difference in costs in favor of the Xbox so that would imply also an power difference.
I will stop to speculate before people get angry. I will wait quietly:)
I'm not seeing the orig BOM target was $400? Did I miss a tweet, post?

IIRC, didn't ZhugeEX have $450 for the PS5 on 2019?

Nevermind, he never had one for the PS5.
 
Last edited:

saintjules

Member
Dec 20, 2019
358
just a quick question that obviously got answered many moons ago, i'm just curious.
How does Zhuge come to his BOM predictions, is it just speculation/guessing or actual inside information?
I'm sure it's a combination of both. He's credible, so I think it's safe to say he's fed information.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
8,501
It was just one person that I've seen? My 649+ price was in CAD.
i definitely saw it multiple times today, but now I am specifically referring to the tweet posted above, he says in the tweet chain he worries the consumer will have to pay >500 dollars for the console, and it makes 0 sense when they had priced a console when they were able to price a console at only $27 above its BoM in 2013.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,033
i definitely saw it multiple times today, but now I am specifically referring to the tweet posted above, he says in the tweet chain he worries the consumer will have to pay >500 dollars for the console, and it makes 0 sense when they had priced a console when they were able to price a console at only $27 above its BoM in 2013.
ZHugeEx and Benji think the cheapest retail price for PS5 would be $450. Futter seems to think $499 is an inevitability.
 

Kyolux

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,346
NCR, Canada
you monster
that blows. You should be looking.
Nowhere was $400 implied as the budget. All we know was less than $450.
It's mostly because our union and the government are taking forever to reach an agreement. I'll eventually get retro-active raises. I do try once in a while for better positions, but the system to get better position sucks.

i definitely saw it multiple times today, but now I am specifically referring to the tweet posted above, he says in the tweet chain he worries the consumer will have to pay >500 dollars for the console, and it makes 0 sense when they had priced a console when they were able to price a console at only $27 above its BoM in 2013.
Oh. Fair. I just felt targeted. My bad. :)
 

Abdel

Member
Mar 11, 2019
224
I am happy they did not aim for 400. I expected 500 and was hoping for 500 since it will give a bigger generation leap, then what would be possible with a 400 console. I guess the current thought at Sony is to sell it either at 450 or 500 depending on xbox.
 

The Cameo

Member
Apr 26, 2018
72
Sony would go with $450 if they think they can get a very solid attach rate to cover the cost difference, but the more likely move would be to launch at $499 and when the component costs fall again do a price drop and not bet that almost everyone who buys the box day one picks up a PS+ membership and/or a couple of games/accessories.
 

Splader

Member
Feb 12, 2018
2,232
Assuming current BOM speculation being correct and withstanding:

Best case- USD 450 (449.99 for those who like being psychologically manipulated)
VVorst case- USD 500 (499.99)
That is definitely not worst case. Worst case is some at Sony decide they want to make a profit with the console, and so go 550 or 599.
 

Nostradamus

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,019
Just because Bloomberg reports a higher BOM it doesn’t mean that the original BOM was $400, just that now is higher. So it’s not confirmed that it has always been $400 vs $460 between PS5 and SeX. It could have already been $430 for what we know.

The way I see it, is that BOM has increased to the point where Sony can’t just absorb the costs and launch at $400. I think there were rumors that Sony execs gave permission to the division to be aggressive with pricing even if that meant selling at a small loss but maybe now BOM can risen to a point that this isn’t realistic. $449 is an option but as a price point it’s not ideal because, it doesn’t have the same psychological impact and still leads to losses per unit. Sony probably prefers $499 over $449 at this point but is afraid of Sex pricing.
 
Last edited:

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,194
Nowhere was $400 implied as the budget. All we know was less than $450.
I think some of the speculation is getting mixed up with actual reliable info.

For all see know, it could have been $440 and got pushed up.

Oh, well, I can see >$499 for MS given the BOM estimate, but I don't think Sony comes in less than $449.
Yeah, makes things even more interesting now if the Series X is on the higher side of those estimates.

Not the specs.....but the final retail price.