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Which team are you on?

  • Double Team (1997)

  • Team Walnut

  • The A-Team

  • Team "No One Can Stop Mr. Domino"

  • Sports Team

  • "I'm a loner, Dottie. A rebel."

  • Team Margarita


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Wulfer

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
520
So a more real Prediction of the unveiling:


Sony does announce things 2 OR 3 weeks prior to the event (when we account the past events like the PS Meeting 2013 or the TLOU II reveal)


Before TLOU II was delayed I always thought there is no chance for a reveal for the PS5 in February, but then they pushed it back ( I really think, this is one of the main reasons for the delay)

By GDC 2020, all ( or in other word: a lot of ) developers will have near-to-final/final devkits, so a Leak is very certain since it will be almost impossible to know where the leak did come from by then, so some dev(s) will be willing to have a fame time (which they will then use for maybe future BS that is less true xD - but hey the specs were right xD)


April: FF Remake - no Chance
May: TLOU II - no Chance
June: According to Tom Warren XSX will be unveiled before it, so maybe May? No way for a first unveil, Sony will go for a counter like in 2013 to steal the show.

So March before GDC is the only available option, to be able to gain massive attention twice like back in 2013 , so from a marketing standpoint IMHO, March before GDC must happen. Also I doubt, they want their secret sauce aka SSD to be leaked by a dev rather than by Mark Cerny himself.



So my guess: By March 1st, the event will be announced, or even earlier (since 2 weeks from March 1 is the 15th which is a Sunday, the day before GDC 2020, doesn't make sense to announce it here), but it has to be AFTER March 5th, where AMD is going to talk about their RDNA 2 architecture, which may be one reason why they push it after that event ( I mean they certainly will talk about RT etc., so I really doubt AMD will let allow them to unveil these features rather than themselfs in regards to Nvidia and its GTC 2020 which takes place 3 weeks later.)


The reveal has to happen now or in March, its the same situation like back in 2013, where the PS was revealed in February, and TLOU came out in June, to not disturb each other, and to gain the most of both)



March : First Look

May/June: Counter with Price announcement!



What do you think?
What makes you think MS will reveal XSX price at E3???

They don't have to do that! Actually I love to see the uproar if MS decides not to reveal a price at that time! Phil has said on many occasions E3 is about showing games. I think MS show more hardware details and a peek at their vision but, I don't expect a price reveal. They don't have too!

MS's job at E3 is to give the public/consumer a reason they have to have XSX. Price isn't their concern at E3!
 
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PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,628
United States
So you guys think Lockhart, if it exists, will be launched on the same day as Series X?

My personal guess is it won't be the same date, but will launch within 1 month of XSX. So late 2020 before Black Friday. Maybe late October for XSX and mid-Nov for Lockhart.

Why?
- Makes no sense to have a big time gap as many have pointed out, given devs need to support both.
- The longer the period between XSX and Lockhart, the more confusion across Xbox One and Xbox (Series ___). I'm guessing MS would prefer to just end the Xbox One line as fast as possible and move on, not have store shelves with a mix of XSX, XB1X, XB1S, and XB1SAD. Lockhart at $300-$400 takes over the current range of XB1 devices, with XSX as the new premium device at a hard $499 or $599. Possible exception is that they keep a $200 XB1SAD on shelves for super budget play.
- Having two launch dates gives them two media cycles / launch "events" to hype.
 

gothmog

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,434
NY
My personal guess is it won't be the same date, but will launch within 1 month of XSX. So late 2020 before Black Friday. Maybe late October for XSX and mid-Nov for Lockhart.

Why?
- Makes no sense to have a big time gap as many have pointed out, given devs need to support both.
- The longer the period between XSX and Lockhart, the more confusion across Xbox One and Xbox (Series ___). I'm guessing MS would prefer to just end the Xbox One line as fast as possible and move on, not have store shelves with a mix of XSX, XB1X, XB1S, and XB1SAD. Lockhart at $300-$400 takes over the current range of XB1 devices, with XSX as the new premium device at a hard $499 or $599. Possible exception is that they keep a $200 XB1SAD on shelves for super budget play.
- Having two launch dates gives them two media cycles / launch "events" to hype.
Wouldn't marketing and launching each one independently just lead to more confusion? Hype the games, hype the new console(s) that both play those games, and then in as simple and meaningful terms as possible explain the two price points. Launch them together and hope your message worked. They'll probably both sell out anyways given typical launch availability of new consoles.
 

zombiejames

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,916
nkaOetT.png
 

PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,628
United States
Wouldn't marketing and launching each one independently just lead to more confusion? Hype the games, hype the new console(s) that both play those games, and then in as simple and meaningful terms as possible explain the two price points. Launch them together and hope your message worked. They'll probably both sell out anyways given typical launch availability of new consoles.

Yeah, maybe. I'd say launching on the same day is also a likely option. I just feel like having two chances to make headlines would be attractive to MS. And I'm not sure confusion is really a thing - enthusiasts who know what a Series X is will get it regardless, and casuals who want something cheaper will buy a Lockhart when they walk into WalMart or whatever.
 

le-seb

Member
Oct 31, 2017
341
Don't know if France and the rest of Europe had the same, but the Killzone bundle in the UK included an extra controller and the camera, and was pretty decently priced and was well-stocked.
Yes, got that bundle in France, too. It was priced at 499€.
Never played Killzone, either (FPS aren't my cup of tea).
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
Figured this might give the thread something to discuss. There are more technical tests out there for those who need charts but the conclusion is the same.



Again a console is not a PC, you can tailor the full software stack from game file format filesystem, I/O API to games engine for devs and the platform holder can tailor the SSD hardware for gaming purpose.

The PS5 and Xbox SSD wil go faster than a PC NVMe SSD in gaming.
 
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Trup1aya

Literally a train safety expert
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,319
If there is a difference in specs and power with Xbox being 12 tflops and ps5 around 9, will this make a difference on actual games?
I mean, all of MS first party games will be developed for the Xbox, but also Pc, with allot its fragmented hardware configurations.
In opposite, Sony first party games will only be developed and tailored to the hardware the ps5 will have.
So I am wondering if the rumored 12 tflops of the Xbox will only be used to bruteforce games and not actually be used to full effect.

Do you think MS strategy of first party games for both PC and Xbox can hurt their games potential?

It depends on the game.

When it comes to how scalable a certain feature or game element is, results will be all over the place. If MS makes a fighting game or a circuit racing game,I cant imagine a developer would struggle to use the XSX hardware to full effect, whilst still making a game that can scale down and provide an excellent experience on lesser hardware.

If MS were making a CPU bound openworld game, then considerations for HDD and weaker CPU would limit design options.

Beyond all that, there's really nothing stopping MS from releasing games that have steep PC requirements after 2021. If they wanted to make a game that couldn't work without hardware comparable to XSX, they could.

My guess is there will be a mix of "brute-forcing" and games tailored to XSX that are ported backwards for weaker hardware.
 

褲蓋Calo

Alt-Account
Banned
Jan 1, 2020
781
Shenzhen, China
Again a console is not a PC, you can tailor the full software stack from game file format filesystem, I/O API to games engine for devs and the platform holder can tailor the SSD hardware for gaming purpose.

The PS5 and Xbox SSD wil go faster than a PC NVMe SSD in gaming.
It's true that console is not a PC, but that actually works against consoles. Hard disks on console are fully encrypted, whereas on PC, (unless you enable BitLocker) things are stored stored as is. And encryption affects performance negatively.

Take BitLocker as an example, from this StackOverflow answer:
With my T7300 2.0GHz and Kingston V100 64gb SSD the results are
Bitlocker offon
Sequential read 243 MB/s → 140 MB/s
Sequential write 74.5 MB/s → 51 MB/s
Random read 176 MB/s → 100 MB/s
Random write, and the 4KB speeds are almost identical.
Consoles have crypto ASIC for accelerating encrypted disk I/O, the reason that hooking up faster external SSD on current gen console does not necessarily yield better speed is very likely this: it's bottlenecked by the crypto processor.

On why Mark Cerny stated PS5 would have faster SSD than anything we had seen on PC, he's most likely referring to it being PCI-E gen 4 SSD, where at the time of his statement, PCI-E gen 4 SSDs were not available on PC.

So yeah, if consoles want to have faster than PC I/O, they gotta be faster than themselves first.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
It's true that console is not a PC, but that actually works against consoles. Hard disks on console are fully encrypted, whereas on PC, (unless you enable BitLocker) things are stored stored as is. And encryption affects performance negatively.

Take BitLocker as an example, from this StackOverflow answer:

Consoles have crypto ASIC for accelerating encrypted disk I/O, the reason that hooking up faster external SSD on current gen console does not necessarily yield better speed is very likely this: it's bottlenecked by the crypto processor.

On why Mark Cerny stated PS5 would have faster SSD than anything we had seen on PC, he's most likely referring to it being PCI-E gen 4 SSD, where at the time of his statement, PCI-E gen 4 SSDs were not available on PC.

So yeah, if consoles want to have faster than PC I/O, they gotta be faster than themselves first.

Lol he said faster than anything else because of f hardware ASIC decompressor same for encryption it is in hardware. If the texture and other assets are compressed further on SSD with lossless compression using PNG for example and other compression for other type of assets and the hardware decompressors are able to decompress the data in real-time if the compression ratio is 4 to 1 it means a 2 GB/s SSD will be able to goes up to 8 GB/s a 3.5 GB/s SSD goes up to 14 GB/s.

And for this two types of SSD they don't need a PCIE 4 bus.
 
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褲蓋Calo

Alt-Account
Banned
Jan 1, 2020
781
Shenzhen, China
Lol he said faster than anything else because of f hardware ASIC decompressor same for encryption it is in hardware. If the texture and other assets are compressed further on SSD with lossless compression using PNG for example and other compression for other type of assets and the hardware decompressors are able to decompress the data in real-time if the compression ratio is 4 to 1 it means a 2 GB/s SSD will be able to goes up to 8 GB/s a 3.5 GB/s SSD goes up to 14 GB/s.

And for this two types of SSD they don't need a PCIE 4 bus.
Hmm that's interesting, can you link me the paper/patent on Sony's compression solution? Or any quote from Mark Cerny's talk?
 

Thera

Banned
Feb 28, 2019
12,876
France
As much as i dislike killzone shadowfail, it could've been worse... They could've bundled knack.

Thankfully the mp wasn't that bad. But as a massive fan of kz2 and kz3s campaigns, i was left baffled by the bizarre level design of the shadowfall campaign. I have no idea what they were going for with those empty levels.
Maybe I would have prefered Knack...
 

Adum

Member
May 30, 2019
923
Again a console is not a PC, you can tailor the full software stack from game file format filesystem, I/O API to games engine for devs and the platform holder can tailor the SSD hardware for gaming purpose.

The PS5 and Xbox SSD wil go faster than a PC NVMe SSD in gaming.
IMO, GamersNexus is one of the best tech channels on youtube. I really respect their work, and usually take what they say as gospel. The only time I've ever disagreed with their view was when Steve once made fun of next-gen consoles having nvme drives, saying something along the likes of PC gamers having had them for years. It's not the same thing.
 

Scottoest

Member
Feb 4, 2020
11,319
My personal guess is it won't be the same date, but will launch within 1 month of XSX. So late 2020 before Black Friday. Maybe late October for XSX and mid-Nov for Lockhart.

Why?
- Makes no sense to have a big time gap as many have pointed out, given devs need to support both.
- The longer the period between XSX and Lockhart, the more confusion across Xbox One and Xbox (Series ___). I'm guessing MS would prefer to just end the Xbox One line as fast as possible and move on, not have store shelves with a mix of XSX, XB1X, XB1S, and XB1SAD. Lockhart at $300-$400 takes over the current range of XB1 devices, with XSX as the new premium device at a hard $499 or $599. Possible exception is that they keep a $200 XB1SAD on shelves for super budget play.
- Having two launch dates gives them two media cycles / launch "events" to hype.

Having two consoles launch a month apart would not only be kinda pointess, it would be a perfect storm of consumer confusion. PS5 and Xbox are both going to be grabbling lots of media cycles during winter 2020-21, no matter what.

*IF* Lockhart is indeed a second Xbox model (something we continue to take for granted), my guess is it launches in the second half of 2021. For one, Microsoft are going to be focused on trying to crank out as many XSX's as they can this year, and won't want to split those precious manufacturing resources between two models. For two, for the first several months, Microsoft are likely going to be able to sell the XSX as fast as they can put them on shelves anyway (same with the PS5). For three, this lets them focus their media strategy on a single box in 2020, and a single message around power and performance.

In mid-2021, when XSX supply is finally getting firmly ahead of demand, you announce a "Series S" or whatever, that is aimed at non-core consumers, coming fall 2021. You've also got several more months of component prices hopefully falling, which potentially lets you price it even more aggressively. This hardware is what will likely go into Azure datacenters for xCloud in 2021 as well, since Microsoft seem to recognize that streaming is an inherently "compromised" experience to some extent, not requiring cutting edge hardware.

Might this strategy theoretically hurt XSX sales a bit in 2021 if some people waited for the XSS? Sure. But as has been discussed in a million articles by now, Microsoft don't care so much about the console hardware game any more - they care about the ecosystem, and proliferating it far and wide.

Now watch my predictions be completely wrong, haha.
 

big_z

Member
Nov 2, 2017
7,794
Again a console is not a PC, you can tailor the full software stack from game file format filesystem, I/O API to games engine for devs and the platform holder can tailor the SSD hardware for gaming purpose.

The PS5 and Xbox SSD wil go faster than a PC NVMe SSD in gaming.

Not as different as you might want to believe but i was hoping people would clue in on the sustained read/write speeds. Nearly everyone here is focused on that aspect as the defining reason why next gen drives will be so fast and why one console might be faster than the other when it really doesn't make a huge difference with games because games aren't one giant file. Drive latency, being able to fetch a ton of smaller files quickly is much more beneficial. In the linus video had the standard ssd had better io it would have out performed the pcie4 ssd. That's where the speed gains are coming from with gaming.


Why am I laughing at this and watched it two times already

The phone call is the best part. Call you back in 1 month, im driving right now. lol
 
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III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,827
Lol he said faster than anything else because of f hardware ASIC decompressor same for encryption it is in hardware. If the texture and other assets are compressed further on SSD with lossless compression using PNG for example and other compression for other type of assets and the hardware decompressors are able to decompress the data in real-time if the compression ratio is 4 to 1 it means a 2 GB/s SSD will be able to goes up to 8 GB/s a 3.5 GB/s SSD goes up to 14 GB/s.

And for this two types of SSD they don't need a PCIE 4 bus.
Again a console is not a PC, you can tailor the full software stack from game file format filesystem, I/O API to games engine for devs and the platform holder can tailor the SSD hardware for gaming purpose.

The PS5 and Xbox SSD wil go faster than a PC NVMe SSD in gaming.
I agree ☝️
 

CliveLH

Member
Jun 22, 2019
2,225
So you guys think Lockhart, if it exists, will be launched on the same day as Series X?
To me the timeline will be like this :

Late 2020 :
- Xbox Series X launch
- Transition of xCloud to Scarlett hardware using the work on lockhart
- The Xbox One is still being sold

Late 2021 :
- End of support for Xbox One
- Xbox Series S launch to replace the Xbox One
 
Jan 20, 2019
10,681
To me the timeline will be like this :

Late 2020 :
- Xbox Series X launch
- Transition of xCloud to Scarlett hardware using the work on lockhart
- The Xbox One is still being sold

Late 2021 :
- End of support for Xbox One
- Xbox Series S launch to replace the Xbox One

I agree and the time line makes a lot of sense. I also think that the Lockhart will be the console on the Xcloud.
 

Deleted member 10747

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,259
Figured this might give the thread something to discuss. There are more technical tests out there for those who need charts but the conclusion is the same.


Do you really think that video is a indication for next gen systems??? Just changing things isn't going to magically change things. There is something called.... lol there are other stuff that needs to be done to take advantage of that speed..... Let's leave it at that. That video is not a indication about anything except that you shouldn't expect things to change magically without software taking advantage of it....also that one is only about loading and nothing else... But good try though.
Again a console is not a PC, you can tailor the full software stack from game file format filesystem, I/O API to games engine for devs and the platform holder can tailor the SSD hardware for gaming purpose.

The PS5 and Xbox SSD wil go faster than a PC NVMe SSD in gaming.
Good luck explaining the difference to....... yeah just good luck.
 

Scottoest

Member
Feb 4, 2020
11,319
To me the timeline will be like this :

Late 2020 :
- Xbox Series X launch
- Transition of xCloud to Scarlett hardware using the work on lockhart
- The Xbox One is still being sold

Late 2021 :
- End of support for Xbox One
- Xbox Series S launch to replace the Xbox One
I agree and the time line makes a lot of sense. I also think that the Lockhart will be the console on the Xcloud.

Agreed with both of these predictions, except I think the Xbox One S gets phased out starting this fall, and the One X takes it's place as the new "budget model" until fall 2021, where it gets phased out for Lockhart.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,815
Australia
IMO, GamersNexus is one of the best tech channels on youtube. I really respect their work, and usually take what they say as gospel. The only time I've ever disagreed with their view was when Steve once made fun of next-gen consoles having nvme drives, saying something along the likes of PC gamers having had them for years. It's not the same thing.

Yep. The game-changer here is not "having NVMe drives", it's having games that are actually built around SSDs (even if that's just exclusives for now). I would actually like to see Linus and his crew redo their blind test later when we have PC games built for at least SATA SSDs - though the similarity in random reads between SATA and NVMe might still make them close. We'll see.
 
Jul 26, 2018
2,464
To me the timeline will be like this :

Late 2020 :
- Xbox Series X launch
- Transition of xCloud to Scarlett hardware using the work on lockhart
- The Xbox One is still being sold

Late 2021 :
- End of support for Xbox One
- Xbox Series S launch to replace the Xbox One
I agree and the time line makes a lot of sense. I also think that the Lockhart will be the console on the Xcloud.
Agreed with both of these predictions, except I think the Xbox One S gets phased out starting this fall, and the One X takes it's place as the new "budget model" until fall 2021, where it gets phased out for Lockhart.

So, for you guys it's like we're gonna live in-between two gens for first time? I don't recall if in previous generations you had the same with, say, PS3/PS4 where you had the new PS4 console but you could also play the very same games on the cheap PS3 slim during first year. Maybe it's just a trick on the names (PS3 versus PS4) that makes it look like there's a discontinuity in generations.
 
Jan 20, 2019
10,681
So, for you guys it's like we're gonna live in-between two gens for first time? I don't recall if in previous generations you had the same with, say, PS3/PS4 where you had the new PS4 console but you could also play the very same games on the cheap PS3 slim during first year. Maybe it's just a trick on the names (PS3 versus PS4) that makes it look like there's a discontinuity in generations.

We will live in the 2 gens during the firs 1 and half years, by 2022 we should be full gen.
 

CliveLH

Member
Jun 22, 2019
2,225
So, for you guys it's like we're gonna live in-between two gens for first time? I don't recall if in previous generations you had the same with, say, PS3/PS4 where you had the new PS4 console but you could also play the very same games on the cheap PS3 slim during first year. Maybe it's just a trick on the names (PS3 versus PS4) that makes it look like there's a discontinuity in generations.
Nah it has always been like this. Older gen console are still being sold for at least a year or two while the new thing is here. Remeber Just Dance 2020 still coming out on Wii ? Microsoft already announced the Xbox One will keep being supported with new first party games for at least a year. I think this is so they don't have to release the Series S right away : if you don't have the money to buy the Series X, you can keep playing on One / One X just fine for a year, then they will have a budget console for you to transition.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
So, for you guys it's like we're gonna live in-between two gens for first time? I don't recall if in previous generations you had the same with, say, PS3/PS4 where you had the new PS4 console but you could also play the very same games on the cheap PS3 slim during first year. Maybe it's just a trick on the names (PS3 versus PS4) that makes it look like there's a discontinuity in generations.

Stuff like Dragon's Age 3 was cross gen (and suffered a bit for it)
 

endlessflood

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
8,693
Australia (GMT+10)
It's true that console is not a PC, but that actually works against consoles. Hard disks on console are fully encrypted, whereas on PC, (unless you enable BitLocker) things are stored stored as is. And encryption affects performance negatively.

Take BitLocker as an example, from this StackOverflow answer:

Consoles have crypto ASIC for accelerating encrypted disk I/O, the reason that hooking up faster external SSD on current gen console does not necessarily yield better speed is very likely this: it's bottlenecked by the crypto processor.

On why Mark Cerny stated PS5 would have faster SSD than anything we had seen on PC, he's most likely referring to it being PCI-E gen 4 SSD, where at the time of his statement, PCI-E gen 4 SSDs were not available on PC.

So yeah, if consoles want to have faster than PC I/O, they gotta be faster than themselves first.
I'd be interested to see the differences in speed between an HFS+ volume with no encryption, vs an APFS volume with FileVault enabled. I'm curious as to how much performance you can claw back with a file system that's designed from the ground up with SSDs and encryption in mind (APFS in this case), because obviously the consoles can use their own custom file system too.
 

Adum

Member
May 30, 2019
923
I'm trying to get an idea of exactly what "an advanced cooling solution that costs a few dollars" might be. Does anyone have an idea on what the vapor chamber in the XOX cost? There's a very detailed bom for the One S but nothing I could find for the One X.

ihs_markit_microsoft_xbox_ones_top_cost_drivers.png
 

Dimple

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,536
Has anyone posted this?:

schedule.gdconf.com

GDC

Game Developers Conference

Learn from the audio designers of Borderlands 3 and Gears of War 5 around how a collaboration between Microsoft, Dolby, and our middleware partners kicked off a revolution with spatial sound that turns any pair of headphones into a multi-dimensional gateway to another world. Attendees will dive deep into the audio design pipeline (Project Acoustics) and the relationship to dedicated hardware-acceleration on newer generation Xbox consoles.
 
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