The Nathan for Hart thing is a lot more compelling, without digging into their specific impacts, and a cursory glance at both of their individual impacts, I think this is the year MacKinnon should win it. It'll be close and I think Colorado's ease of schedule is really going to help out him and the guy I mention below. Of course if Edmonton slips out of the playoffs, I think voters will hand MacKinnon the Hart barring some crazy point differential.
2 years ago it was laughable because of the Hall has no linemates angle. MacKinnon's individual impacts were slightly above even McDavids that year, and significantly higher across the board vs Hall.
I know we joke about Makar and Qughes (I think Makar is fantastic and will end up the better player as his defensive game improves), but this sort of logic applies to the Calder as well. While it isn't 'Most Valuable Rookie', Qughes has been the better two-way player by a wide margin and has been limited offensively by oiSh%. However, people really only look at raw point totals and ignore context, so Makar won almost unanimously.
Eh, there's a LOT of cherry picked stats that some people are heavily quoting about Hughe's advantage. His biggest advantage is his relative stats (aka how bad his teammates are compared to him vs Makar). The HERO charts that you see floating around also say Ian Cole is better than both of them (which, I assure you, he is not).
His S% is lower than Makar because he just doesn't have the same shot, he's a volume shooter (much like MacKinnon is) but his xGF/iCF is also much, much lower, about half of that of Makars. Which means his shots, or at least the shots he's taking are less lethal. Couple that with the fact that Makar also generates more shots individually, it's not hard to see why he's scoring more goals. (that said Makar also is leading the league for S%, which should dip slightly). 0.0288 (Hughes) vs 0.0678 (Makar) for a rolling average of ixG.
Even the TOI that Drance seems to be championing is moot because Makar's rolling 5 game average 5on5 TOI is higher. You can seen on Sean Tierney's website that Hughes is riding a spike of TOI from when the Canucks suffered from injuries. Makar is trending up, Hughes usage is trending down. 17.75 (Makar) vs 16.57 (Hughes).
Something (I guess you expect that from someone trying to carry water) is Drance/Dayal will beat the drum that Makar's 5v5 numbers are unsustainable but will look the other way when it comes to PP production. Both players and both teams have the same xGF/60 rates (Makar: 6.35, Hughes: 6.47, Colorado: 5.85,Vancouver: 5.84). But somehow Vancouver is 7th on the PP with a GF/60 of 8.44 and Colorado is 21st with a 6.39 GF/60. It's kind of a big deal because that's where Hughes is catching up ground with 3 more PP points. Their PP production should be about even but it's not.
If we want to talk about overall impact, GAR/WAR/GSVA models all have Makar well ahead in terms of game impact and what they add to their respective teams. Which is an overall measure of offence and defence.
Even with all that in mind, Makar still has a 3 point lead with 7 less games played with a significant lead in primary points.
It's close, but not really as close as Drance/Dayal want to make you think it is (I mean they flat out say Hughes is better). They're both exceptional rookies and if Makar wasn't doing this, you'd be hearing about historic of a season Hughes is having.
TLDR; Makar and Hughes are a lot closer than they appear. Drance is cherry picking stats to make it look like Hughes is significantly better and plays more. They're both really good and both fan bases are in love with their own guy.
