You know PS4 sold to retail is ahead PS2 production yet, no? PS4 always tracked behind Wii except for the launch quarter.
There is nothing skewed in PS4 case.
I don't believe Switch will ever track ahead PS4.
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Nintendo 2nd Quarter Results FY3/2018 - Switch 7.63M units LTD
- Thread starter ggx2ac
- Start date
There is nothing skewed in PS4 case.
I don't believe Switch will ever track ahead PS4.
Who was expecting Samus Returns to sell a million in a month?
If it did 500k or close to it, I'm sure is considered a success already.
Seeing all these down reports about ARMS is depressing to me. That was my game of the year up until the Mario Odyssey release. I mean the legs aren't great but I think those sales are still pretty good for a new IP. I really hope it's enough to green light a sequel.
People do buy selected amiibos when some new content is revealed, particularly in new games. Occasional bumps in sales gives much more lifetime, even old amiibos included.
Strong showing for Nintendo this quarter.
Nintendo Switch hardware, software and smart devices being the main contributors for growth.
It's clear that Nintendo still has some supply issues on the hardware side but it looks like they were able to boost production this quarter in alignment with the launch of Splatoon 2. I was expecting Nintendo to raise their hardware sales forecast and it looks like they've increased it from cumulative 12.74 million to cumulative 16.74 million by March 31st 2018. This suggests that Nintendo has sorted out the majority of supply issues and that they'll be able to achieve a huge holiday shipment this year that could potentially exceed 6 million units. Effectively it'd be selling like PS4 did in its first year.
Nintendo's software sales have been extremely impressive for first party titles with Zelda and Mario Kart now at 4.7m and 4.2m respectively. Splatoon 2 was the big release last quarter and is already off to a great start with 3.61 million units shipped. Splatoon was something special from Nintendo last generation and it was a great idea to let a younger team create a fresh game. The sequel is doing so much better and has led to an increase in amiibo sales last quarter too. It looks like Arms isn't on track to replicate that success. Whilst the game was of a high quality it looks like it didn't have the content people were looking for. Nintendo is projecting a software tie ratio of 3.3 games sold per Nintendo Switch. Right now software tie ratio is at 3.6 so I'm fairly certain Nintendo will exceed their software shipment forecast for the fiscal year.
Nintendo's smart device segment (Revenue from mobile games and licensing) has generated $340m over the past 12 months. This is extremely impressive given that Nintendo has only really introduced two major games in Super Mario Run and Fire Emblem Heroes. It's clear that Fire Emblem Heroes is the main revenue driver at the moment and is helping stem the decline that we would have seen had Super Mario Run been the only game released. It's clear at this point that the potential is there for NIntendo but they need to embrace mobile business models if they want to be successful. They can't expect to charge $10 for a game on mobile and expect long term recurring revenue. Ultimately I can see Nintendo building a $1bn annual segment if they play their cards right. Animal Crossing looks promising but I'm not sure if it'll monetise as well as Fire Emblem.
Download (digital) sales for Nintendo are up YoY, but still fairly low compared to competitors that are more established in the digital space. It looks like Nintendo is impressed with sales from Zelda's season pass though and I fully expect Nintendo to continue offering add on content through its games as a way to drive long term engagement and spend. I don't expect a huge boost in digital sales this year, but once Nintendo's paid online service rolls out we should see higher revenues from that segment. However, it is imperative that Nintendo get the online experience and value adds perfect so that they can offer an attractive service. So far they've failed on the online front when it comes to areas like voice chat or lobby's. Nintendo know that they can't offer a service on the same level as PlayStation or Xbox though, hence why it's priced as such.
Nintendo's approach to virtual console has been a weird one. Especially with how they handled the lifecycle of the NES Classic. It seems they only intended it to be a stop gap product for the holidays and therefore had only negotiated to manufacturer a certain amount. The SNES Classic launch hasn't gone as smooth as I would have liked but with a day 1 shipment of 1.7 million I think it's clear that Nintendo is at least trying to ensure supply for this is good. Hopefully consumers are still able to purchase one during the holiday gift giving season without too much trouble. The return of NES Classic is also a good move. Not sure what the issue with VC on Switch is, but it looks like for now Nintendo has found a way to monetise back catalog. A $70 product is more than most consumers spend on VC games (Wii/WiiU/3DS) and therefore Nintendo can generate more from each consumer than they would if they were to sell each game separately. I do imagine we'll get some VC support on Switch in the future, but not whilst these classic consoles are killing it.
Two other notes I want to mention.
1. Nintendo has spent nearly 3x more on advertising in the last 6 months than they did during the same period last year.
2. Pokemon Go continues to be a profit driver for Nintendo with
In terms of the future, this will be a solid year for Nintendo. They've created a great product that appeals to a broad audience, they've created a strong pipeline of games for the first 12 months and they've worked with third parties to bring classic titles to the console. I'm extremely optimistic on Switch and always have been since it was first unveiled. However, the hardest part will be to reach the core gamer on PS4/XB1 and the large number of casual gamers who have stuck to mobile.
Nintendo Switch hardware, software and smart devices being the main contributors for growth.
It's clear that Nintendo still has some supply issues on the hardware side but it looks like they were able to boost production this quarter in alignment with the launch of Splatoon 2. I was expecting Nintendo to raise their hardware sales forecast and it looks like they've increased it from cumulative 12.74 million to cumulative 16.74 million by March 31st 2018. This suggests that Nintendo has sorted out the majority of supply issues and that they'll be able to achieve a huge holiday shipment this year that could potentially exceed 6 million units. Effectively it'd be selling like PS4 did in its first year.
Nintendo's software sales have been extremely impressive for first party titles with Zelda and Mario Kart now at 4.7m and 4.2m respectively. Splatoon 2 was the big release last quarter and is already off to a great start with 3.61 million units shipped. Splatoon was something special from Nintendo last generation and it was a great idea to let a younger team create a fresh game. The sequel is doing so much better and has led to an increase in amiibo sales last quarter too. It looks like Arms isn't on track to replicate that success. Whilst the game was of a high quality it looks like it didn't have the content people were looking for. Nintendo is projecting a software tie ratio of 3.3 games sold per Nintendo Switch. Right now software tie ratio is at 3.6 so I'm fairly certain Nintendo will exceed their software shipment forecast for the fiscal year.
Nintendo's smart device segment (Revenue from mobile games and licensing) has generated $340m over the past 12 months. This is extremely impressive given that Nintendo has only really introduced two major games in Super Mario Run and Fire Emblem Heroes. It's clear that Fire Emblem Heroes is the main revenue driver at the moment and is helping stem the decline that we would have seen had Super Mario Run been the only game released. It's clear at this point that the potential is there for NIntendo but they need to embrace mobile business models if they want to be successful. They can't expect to charge $10 for a game on mobile and expect long term recurring revenue. Ultimately I can see Nintendo building a $1bn annual segment if they play their cards right. Animal Crossing looks promising but I'm not sure if it'll monetise as well as Fire Emblem.
Download (digital) sales for Nintendo are up YoY, but still fairly low compared to competitors that are more established in the digital space. It looks like Nintendo is impressed with sales from Zelda's season pass though and I fully expect Nintendo to continue offering add on content through its games as a way to drive long term engagement and spend. I don't expect a huge boost in digital sales this year, but once Nintendo's paid online service rolls out we should see higher revenues from that segment. However, it is imperative that Nintendo get the online experience and value adds perfect so that they can offer an attractive service. So far they've failed on the online front when it comes to areas like voice chat or lobby's. Nintendo know that they can't offer a service on the same level as PlayStation or Xbox though, hence why it's priced as such.
Nintendo's approach to virtual console has been a weird one. Especially with how they handled the lifecycle of the NES Classic. It seems they only intended it to be a stop gap product for the holidays and therefore had only negotiated to manufacturer a certain amount. The SNES Classic launch hasn't gone as smooth as I would have liked but with a day 1 shipment of 1.7 million I think it's clear that Nintendo is at least trying to ensure supply for this is good. Hopefully consumers are still able to purchase one during the holiday gift giving season without too much trouble. The return of NES Classic is also a good move. Not sure what the issue with VC on Switch is, but it looks like for now Nintendo has found a way to monetise back catalog. A $70 product is more than most consumers spend on VC games (Wii/WiiU/3DS) and therefore Nintendo can generate more from each consumer than they would if they were to sell each game separately. I do imagine we'll get some VC support on Switch in the future, but not whilst these classic consoles are killing it.
Two other notes I want to mention.
1. Nintendo has spent nearly 3x more on advertising in the last 6 months than they did during the same period last year.
2. Pokemon Go continues to be a profit driver for Nintendo with
In terms of the future, this will be a solid year for Nintendo. They've created a great product that appeals to a broad audience, they've created a strong pipeline of games for the first 12 months and they've worked with third parties to bring classic titles to the console. I'm extremely optimistic on Switch and always have been since it was first unveiled. However, the hardest part will be to reach the core gamer on PS4/XB1 and the large number of casual gamers who have stuck to mobile.
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Let them reach their forecast and you are already wrong. People should really stop with the hyperboles on both sides.
Woo! Go Nintendo! I am absolutely thrilled they are doing well. A healthy Nintendo makes for a healthy industry. We need all three platform holders to do well so I am very pleased.
Besides, the Switch has been a total blast. I've bought 10 retail titles and 15 eShop games. And I still have Doom, Skyrim, and Xenoblade 2 for the end of the year. I love the damn thing!
Besides, the Switch has been a total blast. I've bought 10 retail titles and 15 eShop games. And I still have Doom, Skyrim, and Xenoblade 2 for the end of the year. I love the damn thing!
ARMS will be around for the lifetime of the Switch I think. I imagine instead of a sequel it will get a massive DLC pack around the one year anniversary time with a host of new stages, modes and characters. I think long term it will do well sales wise maybe hitting 2-2.5 million lifetime sales. It all depends on how well they support it in the short term with small free DLC and long term with meaningful paid DLC.
Overall Nintendo doing very well indeed!
yes, but looking at Black Ops 2's performance and retention on the Wii U, there's definitely an audience for such a game. and with the Switch doing much better than the Wii U, retention and decent advertising could be much better. hell, Nintendo seems to think there's something here, since they are pushing Morphies to the forefront despite being a ok-ish looking indie shooter. they even have it listed in their release lists from earlier today. they want these games and they seem like they will push a decent effort
building a game world in comparable polycounts and texture resolutions (and whatever visual effects they want to add) is gonna take a considerable amount of time unless they ramped up outsourcing considerably. if Gen 8 started halfway into SM's development, then 2018 would be about 3 years in the making. Nintendo still lists Pokmeon as "2018 or later" so it seems like they think they might still be able to make 2018, but give themselves some wiggle room
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The PS4 sold 18.5 million in 14.5 months
http://www.sie.com/en/corporate/release/2015/150106.html
The switch has been averaging a little more than 1 million sold per month, then add to that the boost it gets from Mario this month and add the boost it gets during the holidays
I think the switch will pass the PS4's first 14.5 months on market by 500k to 2 million
Their forecast is below PS4... what are you talking about???
Maybe I'm getting this wrong but with actual forecast Switch will be at 16.7m at the same time period...
And 18.5m for PS4 is SOLD not shipped lol
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Thanks for this summary. The thought on the VC games is pretty much what I thought too, I imagine re-releasing classic consoles generates them more money than VC would, though it'd be nice to have both options, they'd get a decent return from both, easily, I think.
im sure they under forecaset some to make sure they meet forecasts which also means they can go above forecasts easily
Remember the original forecast was 10 million
PS2 is tracking behind PS4 only because it staggered it's launch for nearly a full year globally. If you launch align all regions PS2 is indeed ahead of PS4 and likely always will be. I do think PS4 could catch Wii however although that also depends on PS5 positioning.
Launch skews PS4. The unprecedented supply made a huge impact and PS4 exited supply constraints quicker than any leading major console launch in the past 2 decades (PS2, 360, Wii, Switch). This frontloading effect also applies to Xbox One, which has only recently found itself falling behind 360 ltd aligned despite falling behind monthly years ago.
As for Switch vs PS4, it could really go either way. Excluding launch and they're incredibly close though, which was my point.
That's for the past 2 quarters. April 1st 2017 to September 20th 2017.
And what the excuse to use SOLD numbers (18.5m) instead shipment (19.9m)???
C'mon.
Nintendo underforecast 3m???
Are the switch numbers shipped or sold? If they are shipped numbers my mistake I was only talking about sold not shipped
Sure, but it'd be nice if I can do it natively through the game like in MK8.
All numbers in financial docs are shipments...
7.63m units shipped as September 30th, 2017.
Forecast is shipment too.
Switch is forecasted to reach 16.7m after ~13 months. If they manage to exceed their forecast (they probably will), I think the Switch will be neck and neck with PS4 for their first 14.5 months.
K I think it's shipped numbers will be very close or pass PS4's in the same 14.5 month period then, Just my prediction
Hi Ethomaz,
There is no need to use capitalisation or multiple uses of punctuation to express your point.
Explaining in a calm or rational manner is best.
Thanks.
In these first 14.5 months PS4 shipped 19.9m units.
Nintendo needs to ship ~12.3m in the next 2 quarters.
They said SR's sales were "firm" in the press release, so yeah.
Thanks! That's a lot of amiibo!
Also, on your large post I think you are missing a part where you talk about Pokémon Go?
PS4 was at 13.5M after a year though, which Switch is set to beat. That January number of 18.5M conveniently includes a second Holiday period for the PS4. An arguably fairer metric would be to stick to yearly numbers. Right now Switch seems to be doing better in its first year, but likely not its first 15 months due to a different launch period.
From the earnings report:
So it likely did well regardless.
Things are looking good for Nintendo's mobile offerings. If they can monetize the Animal Crossing mobile game correctly It Could seriously do some damage. And it seems like excitement is there based on the comments I read on social media when the direct for it happened.
Also Nintendo stock just bumped up 7.6%. When they forecasted 10M earlier this year it was almost insider trading when I subsequently bought that stock.
I love it when a plan comes together Hannibalcigar.jpg
I love it when a plan comes together Hannibalcigar.jpg
Switch needs to ship over 5.87m this quarter to beat PS4...
And the shipment January (end of December) number is 19.9m... not 18.5m.
I don't understand these comparisons with PS4 hw sales.
PS4 is one of the fastest selling hardware ever. The fact that Switch is even approaching PS4 first year sales is astonishing per se.
PS4 is one of the fastest selling hardware ever. The fact that Switch is even approaching PS4 first year sales is astonishing per se.