Nintendo Direct Speculation |OT|

Dec 6, 2018
448
UK
You know that the leak is fake by "Super Nintendo games - Available Now"

Nah, Nintendo aint gonna release SNES games untill this summer.
Here's an exercise that *could* shed some light on the likely release window of SNES Online.

Compile a list of all the games that were included on the NES Classic Mini in Japan, US and Europe.
Delete all of the duplicates across the 3.
That gives you a list of all the emulated NES games they had for the Classic globally.
Now Delete all of the titles that are currently on Nintendo Switch Online in Japan, US and Europe.
That should leave you with around a dozen games, I reckon.
Nothing is stopping Nintendo from porting other titles that were not on the NES Classic, but given the current trend (we've seen a handful so far) I wouldn't expect a lot more of them. The strength of the remaining slate is also questionable (yes, we all have our favourites that aren't on it yet, but we are still nearing the bottom of the barrel now I'd say).
They've also started releasing 2 instead of 3 in some markets, which suggests they're low on "stock".

Of course, there's no way of knowing their strategy to support NES Online after SNES Online launches... Do they continue to launch NES titles each month, or do they stop and just move onto new SNES games each month? Or do they just go completely random and add the odd one here or there for either platform?

SNES Online could come anytime in reality, but I feel like it's going to be sooner than later given the amount of NES games that are now available. Mario 2 and Kirby were the biggest omissions as we went into 2019, and they're now there too.
 
Oct 25, 2017
239
Australia
Or in short; none of us actually know a Direct is going to be announced for the 13th, or on the 13th. We're reason to believe it given consistency of current leakers, but it's not proof. If it doesn't happen, bummer, but so be it.
The wonder from down under ladies and gentlemen. This is a good post and one to remember for the next few hours.
 
Oct 17, 2018
1,588
All leaks, including from the reliable to semi-reliable sources here, should be taken with a healthy pinch of salt. Not because of leaker discrediting, but because they're human, and it's most likely that most if not literally all of them are only hearing the information from first and or secondary sources rather than being the source themselves. What I mean by that is it's not that Emily, Zell, and Nate necessarily work for Nintendo and drop stuff from there, but that they just so happen to know some reliable people in position of useful information, or know people who know people in those positions.

It's frustrating when people rally against certain leakers for their ambiguity, or try to pull them up on inaccuracies. Obviously yes, higher strike rates indicate more reliable sources of information, but even those who've had misses have also had, in most cases, a regular assortment of strong hits that can't be just passed off as lucky guesses.

People just need to be reasonable and rational about the stuff they read. They need to accept it's second/third hand information, from a person who likely does not have literal evidence sitting in front of them. This means there's always, and always has been, room for inaccuracy. Sometimes plans change. Sometimes stuff is misheard but in the ballpark. Sometimes they're just plain wrong, because someone passed on something they thought was true yet wasn't.

When Zell, Nate, or Emily say anything pertaining to hints or leaks you should never take it as gospel. Because it's not. It's not an announcement, it's not from Nintendo, it's not a press release. Just be reasonable about it. Rationality warrants interest in those with pretty consistent strike rights (of which these three have actually been pretty on the money regarding Directs and upcoming announcements), but in practice it's still just words on a forum from anonymous users.

Or in short; none of us actually know a Direct is going to be announced for the 13th, or on the 13th. We're reason to believe it given consistency of current leakers, but it's not proof. If it doesn't happen, bummer, but so be it.
At the risk of sounding like a kiss-ass, this is a great post and I think you are consistently one of the better posters on this forum, and this is why.
 
Jan 10, 2018
6,310
Sydney, Australia
The strength of the remaining slate is also questionable (yes, we all have our favourites that aren't on it yet, but we are still nearing the bottom of the barrel now I'd say).
They've also started releasing 2 instead of 3 in some markets, which suggests they're low on "stock".
We aren’t nearing the bottom of the barrel at all. We haven’t even gotten half of the Wii U NES VC line-up yet.

And getting two games per-month doesn’t suggest that at all. Nintendo just doesn’t want to give us those Japanese exclusive games so we just get one less compared to them.
 
Nov 13, 2017
281
Here's an exercise that *could* shed some light on the likely release window of SNES Online.

Compile a list of all the games that were included on the NES Classic Mini in Japan, US and Europe.
Delete all of the duplicates across the 3.
That gives you a list of all the emulated NES games they had for the Classic globally.
Now Delete all of the titles that are currently on Nintendo Switch Online in Japan, US and Europe.
That should leave you with around a dozen games, I reckon.
Nothing is stopping Nintendo from porting other titles that were not on the NES Classic, but given the current trend (we've seen a handful so far) I wouldn't expect a lot more of them. The strength of the remaining slate is also questionable (yes, we all have our favourites that aren't on it yet, but we are still nearing the bottom of the barrel now I'd say).
They've also started releasing 2 instead of 3 in some markets, which suggests they're low on "stock".

Of course, there's no way of knowing their strategy to support NES Online after SNES Online launches... Do they continue to launch NES titles each month, or do they stop and just move onto new SNES games each month? Or do they just go completely random and add the odd one here or there for either platform?

SNES Online could come anytime in reality, but I feel like it's going to be sooner than later given the amount of NES games that are now available. Mario 2 and Kirby were the biggest omissions as we went into 2019, and they're now there too.
Well I'm personally hoping for SNES games soon (and other Non-Nintendo platforms -> Give me back Wii Virtual Console!), and they could release it soon because of the state of Nintendo Online as of now and the subscription rate reports.

But if Nintendo gonna Nintendo then it's summer.
 
Oct 30, 2017
383
Here's an exercise that *could* shed some light on the likely release window of SNES Online.

Compile a list of all the games that were included on the NES Classic Mini in Japan, US and Europe.
Delete all of the duplicates across the 3.
That gives you a list of all the emulated NES games they had for the Classic globally.
Now Delete all of the titles that are currently on Nintendo Switch Online in Japan, US and Europe.
That should leave you with around a dozen games, I reckon.
Nothing is stopping Nintendo from porting other titles that were not on the NES Classic, but given the current trend (we've seen a handful so far) I wouldn't expect a lot more of them. The strength of the remaining slate is also questionable (yes, we all have our favourites that aren't on it yet, but we are still nearing the bottom of the barrel now I'd say).
They've also started releasing 2 instead of 3 in some markets, which suggests they're low on "stock".

Of course, there's no way of knowing their strategy to support NES Online after SNES Online launches... Do they continue to launch NES titles each month, or do they stop and just move onto new SNES games each month? Or do they just go completely random and add the odd one here or there for either platform?

SNES Online could come anytime in reality, but I feel like it's going to be sooner than later given the amount of NES games that are now available. Mario 2 and Kirby were the biggest omissions as we went into 2019, and they're now there too.
I’d maaaaaybe believe “SNES Online – March 2019.” It’s the “Available Now” that gets me, since they’ve already announced the NES games for the month. I don’t think we’d get both NES games and the launch assortment of SNES games.

Of course, there’s a part of me that thinks that Nintendo absolutely will push SNES Online to September to push for resubs. And presumably they’ll sell SNES controllers too, and they might want to have more space between controller releases.

If it weren’t for the in-app SNES leaks I’d almost expect Game Boy games first. April is the Game Boy’s 30th anniversary, after all.
 
Sep 11, 2018
103
At this Point there is no doubt, that this something is coming I mean we are disscuting like over 160 Pages and "King Zell" never corrected us about anything... if we would be wrong.

His last post was just "LOL the doubting started early " , this Guy surley knows something, otherwise he wouldn't share any hints about a Direct or realted to that.
 
Jan 10, 2018
6,310
Sydney, Australia
People keep suggesting that they'll hold back SNES games until September for resubs; but I think they'll play it a bit differently.
  • SNES games release in March to catch the rare six-month subscribes and get them back in, as well as making current subscribers more happy with the service during the first year.
  • Game Boy games will release in September, with more consoles promised for later as the year two re-sub hook.
Book it.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,920
I’d maaaaaybe believe “SNES Online – March 2019.” It’s the “Available Now” that gets me, since they’ve already announced the NES games for the month. I don’t think we’d get both NES games and the launch assortment of SNES games.

Of course, there’s a part of me that thinks that Nintendo absolutely will push SNES Online to September to push for resubs.
Didn’t the President of Nintendo already come out and say not a lot of the players subscribe for a year and a lot of people dropped off after one month? In my opinion, releasing SNES games now is still not enough to get people on board for a year. They need to increase online functionality at the system (chat/messaging/etc) level as well as offer snes games.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,062
I will subscribe to Nintendo online as soon as I can play Super Metroid. Not a moment sooner. So hope Nintendo can get on that ASAP. 20 bucks per year for the besy game ever any time anywhere plus whatever else they put up on the service. Sounds good to me. I’ve been on so many flights and train rides with my Switch where I wished I could play Super Metroid and it’s stupid that we can’t yet.

And I also really appreciate EatChildren , always one of the best people on gaf and now here.
 
Oct 27, 2017
260
I stand corrected, I assume it found more life as prices dropped. I do know it limped out of the gate at the time and most were surprised since it was a great game.
Depends on the definition of limping, I suppose. No doubt it got a boost from being added to the Selects line, but a month after release it had already cleared 2 million shipped.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,523
I think the twist with 2D Zelda will be you can play co-operatively in the same world space, but independently of one another.

"It's the Dark Souls of 2D Zeldas."
 
Dec 6, 2018
448
UK
We aren’t nearing the bottom of the barrel at all. We haven’t even gotten half of the Wii U NES VC line-up yet.

And getting two games per-month doesn’t suggest that at all. Nintendo just doesn’t want to give us those Japanese exclusive games so we just get one less compared to them.
Good point! I completely forgot the Wii U virtual console had so many... there's 90 NES games available on there! Do we think these are straight forward to port across?

Also, looking at when Nintendo added their games to Wii U, the amounts are pretty similar to the Switch era, and they did overlap their NES and SNES releases.

90 NES Additions
34 were added in 2013
30 were added in 2014
11 were added in 2015
12 were added in 2016
3 were added in 2017

50 SNES additions
25 were added in 2013
13 were added in 2014
10 were added in 2015
2 were added in 2016
 
Feb 10, 2019
103
Insiders won't know the timing of announcement, they can only know the direct date. So 13th is definitely the direct date and not announcement. Announcement in 200 mins or else Nintendo's doomed
we will just reset the clock
 

EatChildren

Wonder from Down Under
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,443
The wonder from down under ladies and gentlemen. This is a good post and one to remember for the next few hours.
At the risk of sounding like a kiss-ass, this is a great post and I think you are consistently one of the better posters on this forum, and this is why.
And I also really appreciate EatChildren , always one of the best people on gaf and now here.
Thanks amigos.

It just shits me, because it leads to avoidable frustration I find hard to sympathise with. Over excitement and literal interpretation of grapevine gossip from yes, reliable sources of information, but none of which can be actually vetted by anyone else here. The things these people tease and say are not in any way facts. They are not absolute truths, not even necessarily 100% confirmed to the people sharing. They're not Nintendo and treating their teasing and leaks as official announcements is so foolish.

The Metroid-at-VGAs thing is a great example. I don't doubt the leakers stating as much were extremely confident it was happening for reasons we cannot possibly know. We also can't possibly know what actually happened. We can't know if it was real, and pulled. Or if their sources misheard something. Or they lied. Or it was a deliberate bait and switch by Nintendo to weed out leakers. We can't know and they don't seem to know either. In a sea of strikes this was, for them, a miss and is noted as such.

I just remember when I worked in some journo stuff every once in awhile I'd see or hear information that I was personally one hundred percent sure of yet in sharing couldn't necessarily be trusted because...why would you? Like, I literally viewed alpha tech stuff of Mass Effect Andromeda a good year+ before it was even announced. I saw stuff that never made it into the game. And the same person who shared this content with me told me plans for the game that, to this day, still aren't formally "confirmed" (Kotaku later leaked a lot of it though). I made a video about what I'd seen and heard. And even though I knew for a fact based on visual evidence that what I'd seen and heard was absolutely true and real, I encouraged people to take what I was saying with a pinch of salt because I personally do not work for EA, I do not work for BioWare, I am not working on the game in any capacity. I am just a stranger on the internet.

I'm confident the Direct is coming as hinted because I like the leakers collective strike rate. But it's not a Nintendo announcement. So until that happens, there is technically no Direct.
 
Jan 1, 2018
322
We can’t have as many NES games as Wii U, though. Wii U had third party games. I can’t see a huge amount of third party games being added to NSO as Nintendo would have to pay for them.
 
Jan 10, 2018
6,310
Sydney, Australia
We can’t have as many NES games as Wii U, though. Wii U had third party games. I can’t see a huge amount of third party games being added to NSO as Nintendo would have to pay for them.
We already have:
  • Blaster Master
  • Mighty Bomb Jack
  • TwinBee
  • Double Dragon
  • River City Ransom
  • Ghosts'n Goblins
  • Tecmo Bowl
  • Gradius
  • Solomon's Key
  • Super Dodge Ball
  • Ninja Gaiden
What's stopping any more from happening (besides the Mega Man games; Capcom probably don't want to ruin the sales potential of their Mega Man collections)?
 
Oct 27, 2017
25,269
I don’t believe in Mario Strikers 3 because Next Level Games makes it and they have Luigi’s Mansion 3 coming this year. I can see Mario Strikers 3 in 2021 if NLG wants to make it. Of course if Nintendo finds another developer to make it it could come earlier.
 

Jonneh

GameXplain
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,342
UK
I don’t believe in Mario Strikers 3 because Next Level Games makes it and they have Luigi’s Mansion 3 coming this year. I can see Mario Strikers 3 in 2021 if NLG wants to make it. Of course if Nintendo finds another developer to make it it could come earlier.
Developed by the FIFA team
 
Apr 27, 2018
778
Didn’t the President of Nintendo already come out and say not a lot of the players subscribe for a year and a lot of people dropped off after one month? In my opinion, releasing SNES games now is still not enough to get people on board for a year. They need to increase online functionality at the system (chat/messaging/etc) level as well as offer snes games.
They said that early on most subs opted for the yearly subscription but now people are buying more the shorter periods.

Developed by the FIFA team
You might think it's a jest, but it would be great.