Nintendo Direct Speculation |OT2| Reset the Thread

Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
2,945
That was 10 years ago almost, the game launched at 50$ I think and it was a big revival for a beloved series. Nowadays even NSMBUD is struggling to sell several millions and I see that the market is very hesitant to support a full priced 2d platformer. The series have the potential, the genre hasn't unless they can somehow expand the experience with maybe online multiplayer or some party games - remember how the DS Mario games both had mini games?
If we get another Donkey Kong Country like TF & Returns I can see it selling around 3-4 millions, maybe 5 in the very long run.

NSMBU DX - a slight enhanced port sold 4.2M in five and a half months. It's going to outsell it's Wii U counterpart in less than a year. How is that struggling?
DKC TF - a slight enhanced port sold 2.25M. Outsold it's Wii U counterpart in 9 months.
Yoshi's Crafted World - basically tied Woolly World lifetime sales in 3 days.
Super Mario Maker 2 - Will surpass Super Mario Maker in slightly more than 3 months on the market.

The Wii U games suffered immensly from being on thre Wii U not because of them being 2D platformers. A brand new entry of DKCTF would definately be a good seller. Games doesnt have to hit peak Wii/DS sales (30M) for a 2D platformer to be considered succesful or not struggling.
 

Smash Kirby

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Nov 7, 2017
2,050
NSMBU DX - a slight enhanced port sold 4.2M in five and a half months. It's going to outsell it's Wii U counterpart in less than a year. How is that struggling?
DKC TF - a slight enhanced port sold 2.25M. Outsold it's Wii U counterpart in 9 months.
Yoshi's Crafted World - basically tied Woolly World lifetime sales in 3 days.
Super Mario Maker 2 - Will surpass Super Mario Maker in slightly more than 3 months on the market.

The Wii U games suffered immensly from being on thre Wii U not because of them being 2D platformers. A brand new entry of DKCTF would definately be a good seller. Games doesnt have to hit peak Wii/DS sales (30M) for a 2D platformer to be considered succesful or not struggling.
You need to stop bring facts into arguments, that will get you into trouble. /s

Those sale numbers are the reason I want a port of TMS #FE on the Switch.
 

Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
2,945
You need to stop bring facts into arguments, that will get you into trouble. /s

Those sale numbers are the reason I want a port of TMS #FE on the Switch.

Yeah even going outside of the 2D platform genre that game would also certainly improve on Wii U numbers. Maybe tenfold. I think this game and Paper Mario - despite the mixed feelings towards it - deserves to get another chance. They were absolutely crushed by getting a release so late in to the Wii U lifespan when the console was in an absolute sorry state.
 

fepeinado

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NSMBU DX - a slight enhanced port sold 4.2M in five and a half months. It's going to outsell it's Wii U counterpart in less than a year. How is that struggling?
DKC TF - a slight enhanced port sold 2.25M. Outsold it's Wii U counterpart in 9 months.
Yoshi's Crafted World - basically tied Woolly World lifetime sales in 3 days.
Super Mario Maker 2 - Will surpass Super Mario Maker in slightly more than 3 months on the market.

The Wii U games suffered immensly from being on thre Wii U not because of them being 2D platformers. A brand new entry of DKCTF would definately be a good seller. Games doesnt have to hit peak Wii/DS sales (30M) for a 2D platformer to be considered succesful or not struggling.
Those are some strong numbers.
Anyway, it seems to me that Switch owners are buying a lot of games (proportially, more than ps4 and Xbox owners) - so, even the ports are selling more than their original releases (take MK8De, for example). A new original Donkey Kong would possibly sell better than Tropical Freeze, even if it's still a 2d game (my bet is it would be around 4-5M copies)
 

Smash Kirby

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Nov 7, 2017
2,050
Yeah even going outside of the 2D platform genre that game would also certainly improve on Wii U numbers. Maybe tenfold. I think this game and Paper Mario - despite the mixed feelings towards it - deserves to get another chance. They were absolutely crushed by getting a release so late in to the Wii U lifespan when the console was in an absolute sorry state.
I think the Switch a great platform for bringing great games out to people who might not have gotten the chance to play them on the WiiU.
 

Mekanos

Member
Oct 17, 2018
6,862
Can someone explain to me why they would have a September Direct when Nintendo is publishing no less than three games that month? I don't see how it doesn't cause mixed messaging in their marketing. "You know those games coming out in 2-3 weeks? Well, forget about those and look at all these 2020 titles!" October feels like a more logical choice.

The only real smoking gun is SNES games due for the NSO anniversary, but honestly, they could just announce that on Twitter.
 

unicornKnight

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,218
Athens, Greece
If they want to 10 million then the next DKC has to be a long though. Give me 10 worlds with at least 6 levels each.
1 dollar per level.
I really don't think most people think like that when buying a game.

NSMBU DX - a slight enhanced port sold 4.2M in five and a half months. It's going to outsell it's Wii U counterpart in less than a year. How is that struggling?
DKC TF - a slight enhanced port sold 2.25M. Outsold it's Wii U counterpart in 9 months.
Yoshi's Crafted World - basically tied Woolly World lifetime sales in 3 days.
Super Mario Maker 2 - Will surpass Super Mario Maker in slightly more than 3 months on the market.

The Wii U games suffered immensly from being on thre Wii U not because of them being 2D platformers. A brand new entry of DKCTF would definately be a good seller. Games doesnt have to hit peak Wii/DS sales (30M) for a 2D platformer to be considered succesful or not struggling.
Guys, guys, guys relax, I'm with you my point was that a 2D platformers game at this point can't reach the really big numbers.
NSMB Wii sold more than 20 millions if I'm not mistaken, look also at Mario Kart and Mario Odyssey numbers, clearly NSMBUD can't perform comparably.
DKC TF and Crafted World will probably end up around 4 millions.
SMM2 is a totally different thing, not a typical 2d platformer.
I'm saying that a new DKC games targets 5 millions, not 10. It's still not bad of course. And as I said it can do better if the package offers some extra stuff like online play.

It was sold for 60. You’re thinking of TF.
In Europe most Nintendo Wii games sold for 50€ back then, maybe it had to do the euro being much stronger at that point.
 

Tibarn

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Oct 31, 2017
7,925
Barcelona
Can someone explain to me why they would have a September Direct when Nintendo is publishing no less than three games that month? I don't see how it doesn't cause mixed messaging in their marketing. "You know those games coming out in 2-3 weeks? Well, forget about those and look at all these 2020 titles!" October feels like a more logical choice.
I feel the same: Astral Chain, Link's Awakening, Daemon X Machina and the DQ XI port will be released during the days between August 30 and September 27 (less than 1 month), I don't see Nintendo releasing info during these days as they want the attention to be focused on the weekly big releases.
 

Zippo

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Dec 8, 2017
5,141
Can someone explain to me why they would have a September Direct when Nintendo is publishing no less than three games that month? I don't see how it doesn't cause mixed messaging in their marketing. "You know those games coming out in 2-3 weeks? Well, forget about those and look at all these 2020 titles!" October feels like a more logical choice.

The only real smoking gun is SNES games due for the NSO anniversary, but honestly, they could just announce that on Twitter.
Because Nintendo is Nintendo and they can do whatever they want. Directs are always there to promote new games. One last push is not going to hurt those games at all. Just because they're talking about games coming in the next year does not immediately mean the current games become less exciting. The people that are interested will buy them.
 

mazi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,289
I feel the same: Astral Chain, Link's Awakening, Daemon X Machina and the DQ XI port will be released during the days between August 30 and September 27 (less than 1 month), I don't see Nintendo releasing info during these days as they want the attention to be focused on the weekly big releases.
i agree. i honestly think a september direct is just bad marketing and would hurt those september games.
UNLESS
it's a direct focused only on those games and updates to NSO.
 

yuhr33

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May 19, 2018
1,080
A September Direct is highly plausible given that both Dragon Quest XI and Link’s Awakening have a built-in audience that will buy those games no matter what. It’s not like a September Direct will cause people to rethink purchasing one of these games because of new game announcements.
 

unicornKnight

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,218
Athens, Greece
Can someone explain to me why they would have a September Direct when Nintendo is publishing no less than three games that month? I don't see how it doesn't cause mixed messaging in their marketing. "You know those games coming out in 2-3 weeks? Well, forget about those and look at all these 2020 titles!" October feels like a more logical choice.

The only real smoking gun is SNES games due for the NSO anniversary, but honestly, they could just announce that on Twitter.
With the exception of specific gamse direct like Smash directs, Splatoon directs etc, more directs are aimed at the short future, what comes in the next 3-6 months. September would probably reveal some October-February games, some Wii U ports, a completely secret game, some eshop stuff etc - also Town is supposedly coming in 2019. Also if SNES games are coming it would be a good opportunity to announce them.
 

mazi

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Oct 27, 2017
22,289
A September Direct is highly plausible given that both Dragon Quest XI and Link’s Awakening have a built-in audience that will buy those games no matter what. It’s not like a September Direct will cause people to rethink purchasing one of these games because of new game announcements.
for the people who were already sold, yeah it won't make a difference. but consider how, for marketing a game these days, it's important to get people to talk about a game online. for both mario maker 2 and fire emblem, i would say the hype and social media buzz lead to a lot of sales, people see others talking about a game, sharing their gameplay or all the news articles and that gets them hyped, and that leads to sales. announcing a bunch of new games in a direct (as well as some shadow drops which are in every direct now) will just reduce the buzz for new games that are coming out.
at least that's how i see it, maybe i'm wrong.
 

Mekanos

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Oct 17, 2018
6,862
A September Direct is highly plausible given that both Dragon Quest XI and Link’s Awakening have a built-in audience that will buy those games no matter what. It’s not like a September Direct will cause people to rethink purchasing one of these games because of new game announcements.
Dragon Quest does not really have a sizable built in audience in the west. The fact that Luminary is in Smash indicates they want to do everything they can to get new fans in on it.

Advertising isn't just about selling the product to dedicated fans, it's about getting new ones.
 

yuhr33

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May 19, 2018
1,080
for the people who were already sold, yeah it won't make a difference. but consider how, for marketing a game these days, it's important to get people to talk about a game online. for both mario maker 2 and fire emblem, i would say the hype and social media buzz lead to a lot of sales, people see others talking about a game, sharing their gameplay or all the news articles and that gets them hyped, and that leads to sales. announcing a bunch of new games in a direct (as well as some shadow drops which are in every direct now) will just reduce the buzz for new games that are coming out.
at least that's how i see it, maybe i'm wrong.
I see your point, especially with The Hero in Smash, perhaps they’ll want to capitalize on the buzz surrounding the character.

If they do have a September Direct, which I think is still reasonable, it could feature both big September releases and Daemon X Machina while still making room for a few new announcements. I don’t know, I just don’t see it being far beyond the realm of possibility.
 

mazi

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Oct 27, 2017
22,289
to me early october seems like the best time for a direct. that way a few weeks have passed since the release of the september games so they don't have to talk about those, they can just mention some small new features for luigi's mansion and pokemon and then move on to 2020 games.
as for updates to NSO, i don't know, maybe they can just hold off and announce snes games in this direct, or just do a video talking only about NSO in september.
 

9-Volt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,673
I feel the same: Astral Chain, Link's Awakening, Daemon X Machina and the DQ XI port will be released during the days between August 30 and September 27 (less than 1 month), I don't see Nintendo releasing info during these days as they want the attention to be focused on the weekly big releases.
Whose attention? Directs are not watched by 37 million people, only couple of ten thousands. A potential Direct won't hurt the sales of September games. Overly crowded release schedule will.

There will definitely be a September direct. The winter months (dec-jan-feb) only have one dated release (Gods & Monsters) and they need to reveal some stuff asap.
 

mazi

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Oct 27, 2017
22,289
Whose attention? Directs are not watched by 37 million people, only couple of ten thousands. A potential Direct won't hurt the sales of September games. Overly crowded release schedule will.
what? directs have 2 to 4 million views, and that's only on NoA's youtube channel. not everyone has to watch live, and not everyone even has to watch the whole thing. announcements get posted everywhere after the direct and get talked about for days or weeks, and games get individual trailers.
 

Mekanos

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Oct 17, 2018
6,862
Whose attention? Directs are not watched by 37 million people, only couple of ten thousands. A potential Direct won't hurt the sales of September games. Overly crowded release schedule will.

There will definitely be a September direct. The winter months (dec-jan-feb) only have one dated release (Gods & Monsters) and they need to reveal some stuff asap.
The February Direct has over 2 million views, so... not really sure where you're getting this idea?
 

9-Volt

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Oct 27, 2017
3,673
what? directs have 2 to 4 million views, and that's only on NoA's youtube channel. not everyone has to watch live, and not everyone even has to watch the whole thing. announcements get posted everywhere after the direct and get talked about for days or weeks, and games get individual trailers.
Exactly. Not many people watch it live, so hype and "distraction" are only for those who watch it live. For others it's just bunch of announcements made at the same time. Their impact is not big enough to sabotage sales of other games by eating their hype.

and it has 1.1 million views on the japanese youtube channel, and 850k views on the uk channel, and then there's the twitch views.
I was talking about live watchers, come on...
 
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Tibarn

Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,925
Barcelona
There will definitely be a September direct. The winter months (dec-jan-feb) only have one dated release (Gods & Monsters) and they need to reveal some stuff asap.
Well, Luigi's Mansion 3 has a release date announced, as well as Pokemon, so they can easily wait until October to do a Direct about dec-jan-feb. I don't expect anything big to be released these months, all the games released during the summer and Pokémon seem enough to guarantee a good holiday season for the Switch. They will do a Direct this year, of course, but I think that the best they can do now is capitalize on the September games and wait until October to show new things. And I honestly expect some WiiU ports (3D World, Tokyo Mirage,...) and nothing big, remember that AC comes in March.
 

Roo

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Oct 25, 2017
745
The February Direct has over 2 million views, so... not really sure where you're getting this idea?
and it has 1.1 million views on the japanese youtube channel, and 850k views on the uk channel, and then there's the twitch views.
He’s talking about the Direct happening live which is not that far off, not in the long run.
The post he quoted mentioned a Direct would take attention away from games releasing this and next month which is simply not the case.
 

Timppis

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Apr 27, 2018
1,394
Whose attention? Directs are not watched by 37 million people, only couple of ten thousands. A potential Direct won't hurt the sales of September games. Overly crowded release schedule will.

There will definitely be a September direct. The winter months (dec-jan-feb) only have one dated release (Gods & Monsters) and they need to reveal some stuff asap.
Directs are not only being watched live by significantly more than couple of ten thousands but being written and broadcast about by every single major gaming media there is, which covers yes, millions of gamers daily.
 

mazi

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Oct 27, 2017
22,289
He’s talking about the Direct happening live which is not that far off, not in the long run.
The post he quoted mentioned a Direct would take attention away from games releasing this and next month which is simply not the case.
i'm not saying the direct happening takes attention away as in people literally stopping playing whatever they are to watch a live stream for 20 minutes. of course that won't have any negative effect on anything. i'm saying a direct is a big info dump about 20 or 30 games that gets watched by millions of people and all those news get posted everywhere online and talked about for days, and that negatively affects the buzz around games that are releasing around the time of that direct. as far as nintendo and a big chunk of their fanbase was concerned, for a month all online talk was about mario maker 2 and after that it was about fire emblem and [to a lesser degree] ultimate alliance 3. i think having a direct close to the release of those games would have negatively affected them.
 

Mbolibombo

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Oct 29, 2017
2,945
Can someone explain to me why they would have a September Direct when Nintendo is publishing no less than three games that month? I don't see how it doesn't cause mixed messaging in their marketing. "You know those games coming out in 2-3 weeks? Well, forget about those and look at all these 2020 titles!" October feels like a more logical choice.

The only real smoking gun is SNES games due for the NSO anniversary, but honestly, they could just announce that on Twitter.
Directs are for promoting games coming up and to announce new ones. And outside of the holiday season which is always the most important period for Nintendo they now have a month where they release 3 first party titles, multiple third party titles. They can promptly remind people that we are releasing a brand new piece of hardware and have a lot of software coming up to promote it - in a reel if you will. Nintendo having directs prior to big releases is nothing new they've done it before and can do it again.

An October direct would give any bigger announcements for the holiday period very short time to promote, think of Doom 2016 for instance which was released november 10 - imagine if the direct that year was in October, imagine if Civ VI had less than a month to promote itself. It's not just about Nintendo's own titles it's about promoting tons of stuff on their system.
 

9-Volt

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Oct 27, 2017
3,673
Well, Luigi's Mansion 3 has a release date announced, as well as Pokemon, so they can easily wait until October to do a Direct about dec-jan-feb. I don't expect anything big to be released these months, all the games released during the summer and Pokémon seem enough to guarantee a good holiday season for the Switch. They will do a Direct this year, of course, but I think that the best they can do now is capitalize on the September games and wait until October to show new things. And I honestly expect some WiiU ports (3D World, Tokyo Mirage,...) and nothing big, remember that AC comes in March.
Of course, not ask of the Direct will be about winter games. They should be couple of Q2 2020 reveals and even at least one far away reveal, like last year's AC or Luigi's Mansion. Add that to DLc expansion pack reveals, third party surprises and release date reveals.

And I don't think it's gonna be in October, because November too doesn't have many releases (currently 3 big ones: Pokémon, Doom and Lucky's Tale) I think there will be one more big game for that month and October might be too late for its reveal. Last two years we got couple of games like those: Doom and LA Noire in 2017 and Civilization VI in 2018. Yeah, they're just ports but they might need more than a month to generate more buzz.


i'm not saying the direct happening takes attention away as in people literally stopping playing whatever they are to watch a live stream for 20 minutes. of course that won't have any negative effect on anything. i'm saying a direct is a big info dump about 20 or 30 games that gets watched by millions of people and all those news get posted everywhere online and talked about for days, and that negatively affects the buzz around games that are releasing around the time of that direct. as far as nintendo and a big chunk of their fanbase was concerned, for a month all online talk was about mario maker 2 and after that it was about fire emblem and [to a lesser degree] ultimate alliance 3. i think having a direct close to the release of those games would have negatively affected them.
What? No, that's ridiculous. Yes Mario Maker was getting all the attention but it's just because it's a freaking Mario game. This had been the biggest complaints of third parties for years: don't release a Mario game close to ours, Nintendo, it'll eat our sales! Mario games are always the center of the attention of the month they're released. I don't think MM2 ever needed Direct to be immensely popular, Nintendo's marketing budget for that game is already super high. FE's and Marvel's marketing should be nowhere near close to that.

Similarly, September has Zelda. Nothing can hurt its hype or popularity because it's Zelda. No possible announcement of the direct could turn heads away from it.
 

Tibarn

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Oct 31, 2017
7,925
Barcelona
An October direct would give any bigger announcements for the holiday period very short time to promote, think of Doom 2016 for instance which was released november 10 - imagine if the direct that year was in October, imagine if Civ VI had less than a month to promote itself. It's not just about Nintendo's own titles it's about promoting tons of stuff on their system.
But how likely is to have anything big for the holiday period? I think that Nintendo trusts Pokemon + Switch lite to sell a lot of units this holidays, this and Luigi's Mansion 3. To me it's confusing enough that they decided to share September between Daemon, Zelda and DQ XI S. September will be the Zelda month for most people, and even if the 3 games are totally different, and Daemon/DQ XI are not big enough to sell well during the busy months (november-december), it's surprising that they didn't space the releases better, as this is something Nintendo does really well all the time.
 

9-Volt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,673
Currently, this is the post-October schedule:

November:
8 - New Super Lucky's Tale
17 - Pokémon Sword & Shield
22 - Doom Eternal

December:
Nothing

January:
Nothing

February:
25 - Gods & Monsters

Without a release date, until Q2:
The Witcher 3
The Sinking City
Samurai Shodown
Mario & Sonic at Tokyo Olympics (to be dated in November)
Dark Crystal Tactics
Panzer Dragoon
The Outer Worlds
Alien Isolation
FF7 & FFCC remasters
 
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Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,945
But how likely is to have anything big for the holiday period? I think that Nintendo trusts Pokemon + Switch lite to sell a lot of units this holidays, this and Luigi's Mansion 3. To me it's confusing enough that they decided to share September between Daemon, Zelda and DQ XI S. September will be the Zelda month for most people, and even if the 3 games are totally different, and Daemon/DQ XI are not big enough to sell well during the busy months (november-december), it's surprising that they didn't space the releases better, as this is something Nintendo does really well all the time.
I fully expect bigger third party announcement in the lines of DOOM, CIV VI for the holiday season yes. I dont expect a big first party announcement that much I agree with - possibly a Wii U port or similar but nothing as big as the games we already know about.
 

Mekanos

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Oct 17, 2018
6,862
If the Direct announces the next Smash fighter and a 3D World port it will already be 10/10 in my book.

That said if Odyssey 2 is coming out next year, idk if they're gonna push out 3D World. But then they put NSMBU and Mario Maker 2 in the same year so what do I know?
 

9-Volt

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,673
I fully expect bigger third party announcement in the lines of DOOM, CIV VI for the holiday season yes. I dont expect a big first party announcement that much I agree with - possibly a Wii U port or similar but nothing as big as the games we already know about.
Many of us expect Halo MCC to be this year's "big September Direct third party reveal". XCOM 2 or GTA5 are among the other guesses but only Halo MCC was hinted by insiders.

Oh, sorry about that. But it will come to that too, in time.
 

mazi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,289
i would be surprised if they have nothing for december, but also i can't see it being anything big. a wii u port or a medium size 3rd party collab are probable tho.
 

Tibarn

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Oct 31, 2017
7,925
Barcelona
If Nintendo decides to release a Wii/WiiU port during the holiday season or January, which ones makes more sense?

-Metroid Prime Trilogy will de released closer to MP4 IMO
-Tokyo Mirage is a niche game that it's not even dubbed in English, I can see them releasing it during the slow months (Jan/Feb) to have something new for JRPG fans
-Mario 3D World should be the best one for this December, NSMBU Deluxe performed well during this period, and as Mario Maker 2 has been there for a few months by then, it seems a good launch before announcing the next big Mario game during next year's E3
-XcX should be released during the slow period too, but Takahashi said that is was not in the works
-Pikmin 3 is also a good option for the holiday period, Pikmin is a popular franchise and the game will sell well enough
 

Spine Crawler

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,262
I really don't think most people think like that when buying a game.


Guys, guys, guys relax, I'm with you my point was that a 2D platformers game at this point can't reach the really big numbers.
NSMB Wii sold more than 20 millions if I'm not mistaken, look also at Mario Kart and Mario Odyssey numbers, clearly NSMBUD can't perform comparably.
DKC TF and Crafted World will probably end up around 4 millions.
SMM2 is a totally different thing, not a typical 2d platformer.
I'm saying that a new DKC games targets 5 millions, not 10. It's still not bad of course. And as I said it can do better if the package offers some extra stuff like online play.


In Europe most Nintendo Wii games sold for 50€ back then, maybe it had to do the euro being much stronger at that point.
its a port of a pretty unspectacular game (i personally think its great but thats the perception ). if NSMB Switch would come out it would probably sell comparably to Mario Odyssey or even more.
 

Mekanos

Member
Oct 17, 2018
6,862
If Nintendo decides to release a Wii/WiiU port during the holiday season or January, which ones makes more sense?

-Metroid Prime Trilogy will de released closer to MP4 IMO
-Tokyo Mirage is a niche game that it's not even dubbed in English, I can see them releasing it during the slow months (Jan/Feb) to have something new for JRPG fans
-Mario 3D World should be the best one for this December, NSMBU Deluxe performed well during this period, and as Mario Maker 2 has been there for a few months by then, it seems a good launch before announcing the next big Mario game during next year's E3
-XcX should be released during the slow period too, but Takahashi said that is was not in the works
-Pikmin 3 is also a good option for the holiday period, Pikmin is a popular franchise and the game will sell well enough
Prime Trilogy is for sure being held off until Prime 4 is ~1 year away. Pikmin 3 feels like a good call for a December launch.

Like I said before, I'm not sure if they want to launch 3D World and Odyssey 2 in the same year, but I could see Pikmin 3 in December, 3D World in February, and Odyssey 2 in September (I think BOTW2 will be their big November game).

I'm honestly not sure about Tokyo Mirage, kinda feel like niche games like that and W101 will slip through the cracks.