Pikmin 3 is a confusing piece of the puzzle for sure; I really have no idea about where it could go now, unless it got delayed to Early 2020 and is taking a similar slot to NSMBU this year.That's true, but Pikmin 3 holds me back from agreeing or I would've easily been on board for Pikmin 4 in a fall Direct.
It could make sense; that game also leaked way earlier than it was revealed (in the first half of last year).