yeah, and switches current SW is 68.97m.
Shipping 100 this year? I mean dang.
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Nintendo forecasts shipping 20M Nintendo Switch units, 100m Switch software this fiscal year
- Thread starter Deleted member 278
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Shipping 100 this year? I mean dang.
Reasonable with Smash.
Cautious with Smash + Pokemon
Conservative with Smash + Pokemon + Animal Crossing
I may be in the minority, but it's the first time that a hardware makes me buy games; the hybrid aspect is a huge deal for me, and I find myself buying games I would have ignored if they were on console or mobile only. Not just because I'm a grown-ass man with a busy life, but also because the idea itself of hybrid gaming makes it appealing to me.
Seeing the Switch software's sales, I may not be in a minority actually...
Seeing the Switch software's sales, I may not be in a minority actually...
I mainly play in docked and I feel the same way. The system is much more appealing than Wii U was.
Yeah, they'll need three or for heavy hitters to achieve that imo. Pokemon must be included for this.
I'd say Smash, Animal Crossing and NMBS(port) or a Mario Maker/2D mario + labo could do this, combined with strong evergreen sales from their current top sellers.
It's by no means easy. Pokemon at ~15m in a FY, smash at ~8-10m.
That's still a big gap to fill even if they each do 2 million more compared to previous entries.
To compare: Switch sold 69 million games in it's first 13 months (63 this FY). This includes a record breaking 3D Mario, Zelda and a port of it's behemot Mario Kart.
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Yeah, people really like the system and form factor this time. This is boosting software sales a lot.
Keep downplaying how much games are selling. I don't get why you're discounting that.
Smash, Pokémon, 2D Mario and Animal Crossing would do it.
A console rarely declines like that in it's second/third year on the market. They do anything north of 16 million at the least.
But combined with their very bold 100m software forecast I'd say they are confident in selling 20 million. They must know they have a strong line-up to make this prediction.
So does the 69 million they announced today (which includes the extra launch month).
What am I downplaying? I even said Smash + pokemon + 2d mario + AC is a way I see it happening (and even going stronger depending on the hype/quality of the releases).
But saying that they would only need Pokemon + Smash for that is incorrect.
Switch sold 3 millions from January to March. Are you saying that Switch will sell LESS than that with Smash, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Octopath and probably Pokémon (+ various third parties)? It's ridiculous.
100 mil doesn't seem achieaveable even with multiple versions of Pokemon and Fire Emblem. Maybe they have something big to announce soon?
That would mean they'd less on average every quarter than they did in Q1 of calendar year 2018. They'll easily sell the amount of consoles as last fiscal year even with the current slate imo, and games continue to be announced.
For clarification, do they mean 20 million lifetime sales or do they mean they want to sell another 20 million within the next 12 months?
I'll bet we get 2/3 then. Smash and Pokémon seem more imminent than AC.
In the next 12 months ofcourse, ending around 38-40 million LTD.
They are currently at ~18million. They'll be at 24million (Gamecube LTD) somewhere this summer
Not to mention all the other games that new Switch owners have already available to them. Kind of makes me envious to be jumping in now.
I agree on that. So 20 million unit sold should be done easily !
We'll see. I honestly don't see it happening unless they have Pokemon coming this year, but even then I don't know.
Another 20 million on top of 17.79 million.
Yeah at this rate it's a done deal if they deliver on the quality software.
I mean,...
- Mario Kart 7 - 17.04 Million
- Pokémon X/Y - 16.29 Million
- Pokémon Sun/Moon - 16.10 Million
- Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS - 9.24 Million
You do the math.
Year, otherwise they would be planning yo sell only 2 million consoles in a year, which is not very ambitious
Why is this even a confusion? Are people seriously thinking the Switch will massively tank and sell only 3 million systems for the rest of its life?
That's a 33% increase in hardware and a whole 45% increase in software.
Ok I'm now on team #pokemon2018
Ok I'm now on team #pokemon2018
Imagine
>Nintendo Online on September boosted by Smash 5
then
>Pokemon Switch in November for Holiday Rush
Switch will slay any competition, riots will take the store, Tickle Elmo will be back from Hell to lead the masses into the malls
>Nintendo Online on September boosted by Smash 5
then
>Pokemon Switch in November for Holiday Rush
Switch will slay any competition, riots will take the store, Tickle Elmo will be back from Hell to lead the masses into the malls
It will reach a total of 20m consoles probably some time in June.
This forecast is for additional sales for this fiscal year (April 2018 - March 2019). They are expecting to be at about 38m by this time next year.
And they did just appoint a new President who's also on Pokemon company's board. Maybe they're planning heavy on Pokemon this year? Hoping for a good E3.
That's really something. With the current lineup, I can definitely see the Switch selling a lot more but 20 million? It's not impossible. I still think there's some big stuff coming out this year that we're not aware of. I was on the Pokemon Switch 2019 train but this changes my mind entirely.
I'm still not convinced. Not really because Pokémon wouldn't sell Switches, but because the Switch would be a hindrance to Pokémon sales at this point in its life time. The thing is still only available in a $300 SKU and Pokémon is a franchise primarily marketed to kids. And 2018 still sounds really early for a $200 Dock-less SKU.
100M could mean something as simple as: each existing Switch user buys 2 new games on average and each new Switch user buys 3 games on average.
What? Do you not see how everysingle nintendo game is selling? It's going to sell gangbusters no matter what.
I think Smash, Pokemon, and 2D Mario (even if it's a port) would be enough.
I think small things can add up.
i.e.
2m DKTF
4m Aces
2m Octopath
1m Hyrule
2m more Kirby
3-4m FE
1m Toad
1m Crash
0.5m Sushi
3m Yoshi
2.5m (? localized) Yokai Watch
~22m
Maybe they'll get a CoD?
This would just be smaller games releasing this year. Not counting legs of old games or the huge hitters.
And not counting Digital only, or other 3rd parties
So they sold 63 million the first year and expect only 40 million the second year? Ok dude.
Makes sense. 20M consoles and an average of 21/2 new games bought by each user seems reasonable. Especially with evergreen titles like Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Splatoon, Zelda already availiable for new buyers to be picking up in adition to this year's games.
Having Fire Emblem, Smash and either 2D Mario or Pokemon in the back half along with possibly Metroid and Bayonetta 3 early 2019 as more core/niche games that will generate console sales among niche buyers. it seems plausible.
Having Fire Emblem, Smash and either 2D Mario or Pokemon in the back half along with possibly Metroid and Bayonetta 3 early 2019 as more core/niche games that will generate console sales among niche buyers. it seems plausible.
Does the forecast/result for software include digital-only third party releases? Because I have a feeling it doesn't, seeing how well games like Steamworld Dig 2 and Celeste are performing on the Switch.
It's possible, but it would need very good sales from some other titles. For example FE would need to double it's sales compared to Fates/Awakenings to get to your numbers in one FY.
That 100 million indicates (to me) they are very confident with their lineup and it's impact with either some very big sellers (Smash/Poke/AC/Mario imo) and/or have surprises we don't know about yet.
So while I agree it's possible, I don't think saying "it's easy" is correct.
Expecting record breaking sales for some your titles isn't business as usual and isn't easy, and kudos if they can pull it off.
I was like "Did you mean Q4?" and then I realized that Fiscal Q3 is normal Q4.
You are not alone.
Hell, I'm double dipping on software I already bought for PC or Wii U.