Just throwing some random guesstimated numbers around, this is my path to 100m software sold.
First lets look at already released Firstparty titles from last FY:
Zelda BOTW: should sell another 2 million at the very least this FY.
MK8DX: should sell another 5 million at the very least this FY.
Splatoon 2:should sell another 2 million at the very least(1million in japan alone, due to octodlc) this FY.
Mario Odyssey: should sell another 3 million at the very least this FY.
ARMS+XC2+12Switch: should sell 1.5 million at the very least combined this FY.
Kirby Star Allies: should sell another 1.5 million this FY alone, since it only got half a month in sales last FY.
Thats already 15 million in Software sales just from the Firstparty backlog, with if i dare say so quite modest estimates.
Then we have the first party titles that are announced for this FY:
LABO: that should sell anywhere from 1 to 10 million, depending on who good WOM and the holiday season are, but lets lowball and go for 2.5 million this FY.
Mario Tennis Aces: Being a quite hyped game, it should sell at least as good as the average Mario tennis, so anywhere from 1-2 million, lets go with the middle and say it Sells 1.5 million this FY.
DKCTF: should definitely hit 1m at the very least.
Fire Emblem Switch: it should at the very least keep sales stable from the main entries but to be conservative lets go with a bit less, so lets go with 2m this FY.
Smash: as one of the big hitters, this one should pull in quite some numbers, smash has grown in top sales every entry(assuming you combine WiiU and 3DS as one game) so it should sell 8m this FY at the very least.
Sushi Striker: to be honest, i have no idea how this will sell, since its a new Ip and also a dual release on 3DS/Switch, but since its a New Nintendo IP on their hot new system i think going with 1 million this FY should be achievable.
Captain Toad: while this one also being a dual release, but being a port of a popular game, i think going with 1m this FY is also reasonably conservative.
Yoshi 2018: this one being another stable franchise getting a new entry this Year, i would say going with a bit bellow average yoshi sales is a nicely conservative sales goal, so lets go with 1 million sold this FY.
This totals to 18 million for the already announced First Party titles this FY, and a total of 33 million software sold for First party titles in FY 2018.
Then lets go to major(ish) Third party titles that are announced for FY2018:
Darksouls Remastered: even if it got delayed into summer, it should still hit a million sold this FY, since the nintendo only gamers would experience it for the first time, and quite the number should double dipp for the portability.
Yokai Watch 4: currently Japan only, so lets assume it stays so for this FY, thus i would go with 1 million sold in Japan for this game this FY.
Octopath Traveller: should hit a million sold this FY, since reception has been great, and the demo already got downloaded 1.3 million times.
Hyrule Warriors: despite being a rerelease of a rerelease, it should hit 1 million this FY, since (irc)FEW did so last year, on a smaller installbase.
DQBuilders2: it should hit 500k at the very least, due to it being day to date with PS4 and having no major downgrades.
Takio: should hit 500k in Japan alone.
The world ends with you remake: should hit 500k.
That would put major third party sales of what is announced at 5.5 million this FY, and total sales of FP/Third Party combined at 38 million while disregarding third party backlog, and third party indies with a physical release.
Then there is the matter of Nintendos handling of Digital only titles, which could result in sales from last FY to be counted this FY, like how the sales for Sonic mania have not been counted, but will be once Plus releases, since it is a Physical release, things like that could boost reported sales by quite a bit, assuming more successful indies decide to release physical versions. Thus i would say that with the continued success of Indies on switch, and the increased release frequency of them its a conservative number to say all the Indies will sell 11m this FY on switch.
As for the Third party backlog, there are too many titles to really list them all, but in general software seems to have nice legs on Switch, so i would say 11m from the third party backlog should be reasonable.
This would bring software sales as a total up to 60 million.
Then they would just need some unannounced big first and third party titles to cover the gap of 40 million units.
If Pokemon really does hit 2018, or even just spring of 2019, that should bring in 10-15 million sales alone.
