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Nintendo France shares some numbers about the Switch, LABO, DKCTF & E3

Oct 25, 2017
8,270
#1
http://www.lefigaro.fr/secteur/high...lions-de-switch-vendues-en-france-en-2018.php

In a nutshell :

- Switch is still doing big numbers, they now have high goal for most of their game releases
- Goal is to reach 2 millions sales by the end of this calendar year. It did one million in less than a year.
- Selling 20% more games than last year, software dynamic up YoY
- Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze almost above 100k unit sold
- Zelda BoTW & MK8DX are still charting every week
- They only expected 20% of LABO yearly sales to be sold until september, and the remaining part should be sold in the Christmas period. Says that "market curves are different for a toys-like product compared to a standard video game".
- About E3 : they prefered to keep it close, to only talk about games releasing in the coming months. Says that they've got plenty of opportunities to show more, during Japan Expo (July), Gamescom (August) or Tokyo Game Show (September).
- Three big games this holiday : Super Mario Party, Pokémon Let's Go & Super Smash Bros Ultimate. First two are family-oriented games and should bring casual audience to the Switch.
- Pretty ambitious goals for Pokémon & Smash, says that so far public response has been above their expectations.

EDIT : I corrected a small mistake about the LABO statement, it's 20% of "yearly sales" and not "stock", which could have been interpretated as launch stock.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
1,564
#3
Yeah, they will hit that 20 million target with ease. Im also confident we will see more third party announcements and surprises the coming months.
 
OP
OP
LordKano
Oct 25, 2017
8,270
#5
That's a low goal if they expect to sell less on average than last year? Or do they mean 2 million sales in this year alone?
It's one million from March to December when, last year, it did one million from March to March. So they expect to sell more.
 
Nov 5, 2017
3,855
#11
The reaction to Smash outside of of the forum bubble (probably 0.5% of the audience) has been amazing. Social are full of hype. I feel like Pokémon is a bit more mixed instead, but probably because kids don't have Twitter.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,346
The Netherlands
#12
Doesn't sound like it did well. Can we get context here? Is this a good number? How does this look in relation to Wii U ver sales etc
Splatoon 2 did 250k in about 6 months, BOTW 410k in 10 months, MK8D 500k in 8 months, SMO 510k in 2 months: https://www.mcvuk.com/business/nint...s-soar-ea-to-support-platform-and-why-vr-is-a

I'd say it's a great number for DKTF, going head-to-head with titles like Splatoon 2 and maybe it can sell over half of what BOTW did.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,695
#14
- They only expected 20% of LABO stock to be sold until september, and the remaining part should be sold in the Christmas period. Says that "market curves are different for a toys-like product compared to a standard video game".
Would've been nice if they also said if they achieved those expected 20%. But nice to have a confirmation from at least one branch of Nintendo that Labo is expected to be a long seller.

Didn't we have a couple of 2019 games on there though? Daemon x Machina for example.
2, iirc. Fire Emblem and Not-Armored-Core. FE was announced for 2018 last year, though they didn't state wether it's FY or CY. Might be possible that the delay was decided not too long ago and they didn't bother to not show it like Yoshi and other 2019 games.
 
OP
OP
LordKano
Oct 25, 2017
8,270
#18
Would've been nice if they also said if they achieved those expected 20%. But nice to have a confirmation from at least one branch of Nintendo that Labo is expected to be a long seller.
It's 20% until September, so we're not quite that here now.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,435
Western Canada
#21
Would've been nice if they also said if they achieved those expected 20%. But nice to have a confirmation from at least one branch of Nintendo that Labo is expected to be a long seller.
I think you might be misreading that comment. It's not about a specific goal. They're saying that they're expecting 80% of Labo's YTD sales to occur during the holiday shopping season. Like, say for example Labo sells 100k from launch to September, they're saying they'd expect it to sell another 400k from October through December. Reasoning is that they're expecting it to sell more like a toy than a video game, which typically have huge spikes during the holidays.

It basically just reinforces what we've known all along: Nintendo wasn't expecting Labo to be a big seller out of the gate.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,581
Spain
#22
It was always evident that LABO's strategy was to launch it early so that it would give time to fill up with creations and that the real marketing will arrive at Christmas.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,870
Netherlands
#25
Doesn't sound like it did well. Can we get context here? Is this a good number? How does this look in relation to Wii U ver sales etc
That's an attach rate of about 10%.
I think in the US DKTF for WiiU sold 150k after a few weeks, at an install base of 2M WiiU, so 7.5% attach rate. If France was similar, DK is now doing better than on Wii U.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,323
#26
don't really get the e3 comment.

1. Nintendo doesn't do much at TGS.

and...uh yea...of course you can demo games at gamescon and whatever. As usual. There's always opportunities to show more.

unless it means...announcing new stuff?
If so, you're Nintendo so you do that whenever you want. So yeah don't get it.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,081
#28
- They only expected 20% of LABO stock to be sold until september, and the remaining part should be sold in the Christmas period. Says that "market curves are different for a toys-like product compared to a standard video game".
Well there it is....yet some people expected Zelda/Mario type first week sales for a product like Labo.
They will start marketing again for the Holiday season to get families to pick up the Switch if they are deciding between multiple systems.

don't really get the e3 comment.

1. Nintendo doesn't do much at TGS.

and...uh yea...of course you can demo games at gamescon and whatever. As usual. There's always opportunities to show more.

unless it means...announcing new stuff?
If so, you're Nintendo so you do that whenever you want. So yeah don't get it.
They always have a big fall conference around TGS...also JPN 3rdPartys announce content around that time.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,277
#30
They’re still keeping their cards very close to their chest with that LABO comment. Probably because they really have no fucking clue how well it’ll do. It’s gonna be interesting to see if their projection holds true later in the year.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,323
#31
They always have a big fall conference around TGS...also JPN 3rdPartys announce content around that time.
well yeah.
hm, maybe I should read it in Reggie's voice cause it seems like a non-statement of things will be shown later, like always.


yeah that worked.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,852
Santa Albertina
#33
2 million more in this fiscal year.
Nope.


That's a low goal if they expect to sell less on average than last year? Or do they mean 2 million sales in this year alone?
It's one million from March to December when, last year, it did one million from March to March. So they expect to sell more.
They did 1 million from launch (March) to mid February (less than a year)... now they believe they will do more 1 million from mid February to end of December.

That is about 10% increase in sales in France (projection)... they need near 35% increase in sales YoY WW to reach 20 million.
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,398
#34
They did 1 million from launch (March) to mid February (less than a year)... now they believe they will do more 1 million from mid February to end of December.

That is about 10% increase in sales in France (projection)... they need near 35% increase in sales YoY WW to reach 20 million.
Yeah but then you also have the Jan, Feb and March '19 sales that you're so conveniently ignoring to meet that 20 million FY.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,504
Limburg
#35
Oh dear, bubble's 'bout to burst.
You think PLG and SSBU won’t move systems this holiday? They absolutely will. I have been notedly skeptical of Pokémon Let’s Go, but even I see the sales potential it carries. If they can successfully pull in a fraction of the Pokémon Go crowd, (~20m Daily active users) and some of the core, it will move units.

Same goes for Smash, if they can pull in lapsed smash players from Melee with things like returning chars, improved mechanics, and GameCube controller comparability, they will likely outsell the last entry and move millions of Switches off the shelf before end of this FY.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,852
Santa Albertina
#36
Yeah but then you also have the Jan, Feb and March '19 sales that you're so conveniently ignoring to meet that 20 million FY.
I talked about increase... not overall sales... they need avg. 35% increase in all months to reach 20 million including Jan, Fev and Mar.

Yeap my % increase include these months.

France estimates shows 10% increase avg. per month. Do you think Jan, Feb and Mar will have an astronomical increase to cover all the others 10.5 months to reach 35% in the year? C’mon you can’t be serious.

France is one of the strongest Nintendo markets and these estimates didn’t align with the 20 million Nintendo Forecast... they should be around 2.2 million at end of December for that.

You have four options here:

- This France’s forecast is too conservative.
- The others countries will have a way stronger increase YoY to cover France (way over 35%).
- Nintendo’s forecast is too optimistic.
- A mix of all them.

Edit - Added a 4th option.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
6,346
The Netherlands
#39
You think PLG and SSBU won’t move systems this holiday? They absolutely will. I have been notedly skeptical of Pokémon Let’s Go, but even I see the sales potential it carries. If they can successfully pull in a fraction of the Pokémon Go crowd, (~20m Daily active users) and some of the core, it will move units.

Same goes for Smash, if they can pull in lapsed smash players from Melee with things like returning chars, improved mechanics, and GameCube controller comparability, they will likely outsell the last entry and move millions of Switches off the shelf before end of this FY.
I meant ERA's bubble where Pokémon fans would say that this wouldn't be a big deal (for Pokémon's standard) and that the reception for the game was lackluster.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,051
#40
About the 2019 games that was in their Direct, it seems they are to be released during the first months of the year, that's why Reggie and this PR said "6 to 9 months). I trully believe all of those gomes will be available during the 2018 fiscal year.

If that's true, the good think about it is that 2019 seems better planned than 2018 so the first couple of months won't be dry like this year.

At least if those games are, in fact, schedule for a Jan to March release.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,346
The Netherlands
#44
About the 2019 games that was in their Direct, it seems they are to be released during the first months of the year, that's why Reggie and this PR said "6 to 9 months). I trully believe all of those gomes will be available during the 2018 fiscal year.

If that's true, the good think about it is that 2019 seems better planned than 2018 so the first couple of months won't be dry like this year.

At least if those games are, in fact, schedule for a Jan to March release.
Which games did they have for 2019? I remember Daemon X Machina and Fire Emblem ( ;_; ), but what else was 2019?
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,346
The Netherlands
#46
That was it. Yoshi got delayed, but wasn't shown or talked about. So just the 2.
Ah yeah, Yoshi, too, indeed. If H1 2019 is Yoshi, Fire Emblem and Daemon X Machina from a first party perspective (and probably something more, either a high-profile port like NSMBU or a big game like Animal Crossing), then that's a pretty good/great H1 from a first party point of view.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,051
#48
Ah yeah, Yoshi, too, indeed. If H1 2019 is Yoshi, Fire Emblem and Daemon X Machina from a first party perspective (and probably something more, either a high-profile port like NSMBU or a big game like Animal Crossing), then that's a pretty good/great H1 from a first party point of view.
yeah, the key will be third party. Nintendo must try a different approach to increase it's support.
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,474
Belgium
#49
- Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze almost above 100k unit sold
Damn, this is great right? I'm so happy this game got a rerelease on Switch. I hope we can get some combined numbers for this game at some point so we can compare with WiiU. Of all the rereleases, this is the one I really want to see do well.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,509
#50
- About E3 : they prefered to keep it close, to only talk about games releasing in the coming months. Says that they've got plenty of opportunities to show more, during Japan Expo (July), Gamescom (August) or Tokyo Game Show (September).
- Three big games this holiday : Super Mario Party, Pokémon Let's Go & Super Smash Bros Ultimate. First two are family-oriented games and should bring casual audience to the Switch.
Those 2 statements contradict each other. They have nothing big other than those 3 for the rest of the year and Q1 2019 probably. They're not keeping it close, that's a lie.