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Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,148
I'm sure I recall that this person's expectations were called deluded for both 2017 and 2018 by regulars on this site and Neogaf. I always felt he knew what he was talking about and lo and behold he was underestimating in both years.

It's another unfortunate reflection on this site really. But congrats to Nintendo France regardless, they're definitely hitting it out of the park.

He was on point, but switch sales being 3.5% above his expectations does not really mean he underestimated anything, that's almost statistical noise at this point.
 

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
He was on point, but switch sales being 3.5% above his expectations does not really mean he underestimated anything, that's almost statistical noise at this point.

That was called tongue-in-cheek.

You're right obviously but I was being deliberately facetious.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,026
It's by far Nintendo's biggest market.

But it's worth noting this Switch gen, they are doing very well also in other countries, like UK, Spain, Italy and Germany. (still below Sony on those though)
Between UK,France,Germany the big 3, 2018 sell through would have be around 3 million+

Trying to figure out how many Switch units sold for all of Europe
 

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,148
Mario Kart in 2018 outselling mario Kart in 2017 in various countries tells me that MKWii numbers aren't so far off
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
I can't believe that people were seriously doubting Mario Kart 8 Deluxe pre-launch.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
Another country that the Switch was roughly up 20-25% in yoy. That is what they need to keep around on average to make the mythical 20 million.

They need more than that. Around +33% for whole FY. If the global increase this year is same as in France (and UK) and that translates directly to shipments Switch shipped little over 18 million units this year which would mean little over 10 million for Q3 and would leave almost 5 million to last quarter which feels too high bar. I still think they miss their forecast by about a million but it's not like it matters in long run.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
Between UK,France,Germany the big 3, 2018 sell through would have be around 3 million+

Trying to figure out how many Switch units sold for all of Europe

UK, France and Germany are 4+ million without knowing Germany's updated numbers (last known number was 650k from March 2018).
 

hussien-11

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,315
Jordan
They need more than that. Around +33% for whole FY. If the global increase this year is same as in France (and UK) and that translates directly to shipments Switch shipped little over 18 million units this year which would mean little over 10 million for Q3 and would leave almost 5 million to last quarter which feels too high bar. I still think they miss their forecast by about a million but it's not like it matters in long run.
Don't forget that US seems to be overperforming and going noticably higher than 33%.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
Another country that the Switch was roughly up 20-25% in yoy. That is what they need to keep around on average to make the mythical 20 million.
No, it's not enough. Switch will certainly miss its target for hardware, but software will do better than expected, so who cares?

Wait wait wait, I just realised. Mario Kart outsold COD this year ?????
If you only count physical sales, yes. But as we know that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did 700K in 2018, it means that Black Ops 4 did at least 30% less (in physical) than WWII.
 

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,148
No, it's not enough. Switch will certainly miss its target for hardware, but software will do better than expected, so who cares?


If you only count physical sales, yes. But as we know that Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did 700K in 2018, it means that Black Ops 4 did at least 30% less (in physical) than WWII.
Even physical only, that's still impressive. WWII did 1M last year. And came out on november 3rd, almost a month later vs BO4 (october 12th). There are no reason for the game to have sold so few compared to WWII. It's really weird. Or is the digital share much higher than last year for some reason ? Or were there some stock issues ? Weird for COD, impressive MK8D nonetheless
Edit: oh wait could the protests really have had any kind of impact ? I thought it was just a joke
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
Can we at least wait for Q3 results before trying to make definitive statements?

Sell-through ≠ shipment FYI
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,018
Anyone know how much it sold at launch in France? I was curious to subtract that amount to compare the two FY.

Edit

Just to be clear, I ask because the bullet point talks about how much was sold in 2017 vs 2018, however March 2017 would have been launch month and in a different FY, so the 2017 number is skewed for the percentage comparisons people are making.
 

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,148
http://www.lefigaro.fr/medias/2019/...edium=sms&utm_campaign=fr.playsoft.lefigarov3

Bullet points:

(note: all of those numbers are retail only)

- In 2017, they announced their pretty high objective of reaching two millions units sold by the end of 2018. They reached it and even surpassed it by a little bit, by selling 2.04 millions at the end of December. 1.13 millions of that number comes from 2018, versus 911k in 2017.
- They had holiday sales comparable to those of the Wii, with weeks that sold in the hundreds of thousands.
- 3DS sold 254k in 2018, versus 507k in 2017, for a grand total of 5.5 millions LTD.
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the third best selling game of 2018 all platforms combined at retail. The ranking is Fifa 19 > RDR2 > MK8DX. It sold 1.2 millions LTD, with 700k of that in 2018 (so higher than in 2017). (note: it's a similar performance as in UK where MK8DX sold more in its second year than in its first)
- Super Mario Party is the fifth best selling game of 2018 all platforms combined at retail. Pokémon is seventh, Super Mario Odyssey eight and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate ninth. All of those titles sold more than 400k LTD.
- They're expecting to sell even more units this year than in 2018.

You could also add in the OP that Switch was the best-selling console in 2018. (Or maybe not ? to avoid console war stuff ?)

Edit: just reread the article, they actually say that had it not been for the protests, they could have done better. Impressive stuff really (not related to the first part of my post, this is also relevant to Sony and Microsoft)
 

Paronth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
268
No, it's not enough. Switch will certainly miss its target for hardware, but software will do better than expected, so who cares?

Shipped≠sell through
Nintendo can overshipped if they really want to reach their target. Sony did it in 2016 with 3.6 million consoles on shelves end December. In 2017 they shipped less than 2016 but sold 2 million more to consumers.
 

Mekanos

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 17, 2018
44,176
It's always fascinating to me how certain brands do very well in specific regions. Is there a particular reason Nintendo is so popular in France?
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
The US number is more effective in the full picture, its a much bigger market. And they probably shipped more than 20% in Europe compared to last year when supply was constrained.
I think 19m at least is almost certain at this point.

oh yeah. It will be close and yeah at least 19 million should be rather safe bet. Of course I could be completely wrong too and they hit that 20 million (wouldn't be first time). We shall see when Nintendo releases their Q3 data at the end of this month (how much the holiday shipment was and will they change their forecast).
 

V0ltg

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,610
It's always fascinating to me how certain brands do very well in specific regions. Is there a particular reason Nintendo is so popular in France?
French people are just big ol' weebs.
Nah but seriously, french people are very fond of japanese culture. The manga industry is specially pretty big over there.
 

Andri

Member
Mar 20, 2018
6,017
Switzerland
True but the difference is really not that big.
UK market 2017
France market 2017

Taking these numbers and converting them means UK had 6.4 B$ gaming market, compared to France with 5.3 B$.

Probably gonna get even closer come this year due to certain happenings, as well as xb/ps probably cooling of as they prepare for next gen.

What portion of the EU market is France?

Europes Gaming market is reportedly around 20 Billion dollars, but the only "official" number i know of is 28 B dollars for Europe combined with africa and the middle east.

So if we say 20 B is europe, France would be about 25% of europes gaming market, with the UK at 32% and germany(4.7 B in 2018) at 23%.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Yeah the yellow vest movement definitely impacted the sales so it is even better with context.

Cant wait to hear about other software numbers.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,170
They need more than that. Around +33% for whole FY. If the global increase this year is same as in France (and UK) and that translates directly to shipments Switch shipped little over 18 million units this year which would mean little over 10 million for Q3 and would leave almost 5 million to last quarter which feels too high bar. I still think they miss their forecast by about a million but it's not like it matters in long run.
They were tight on supply everywhere last year and they are not tight on supply this year.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
So last year... France was 21.3% of the other region through December 31st (0.911 of 4.26 million). If similar ratio occurs this year we are looking at 5.3 million in the calender year of 2018 for Other. I think it's going to be a fair bit more than that actually, considering how close shipments were to sell through last year, and how regions like the uk and other weaker regions for Nintendo would likely have a higher percentage gain yoy.
 

Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
no, not "certainly".
To reach its target, Nintendo needs to ship 33% more units than last fiscal year. We only have numbers for three markets (2nd, 3rd and 4th or 5th market of the Switch), but none of them are close to that. So no, Switch won't reach its target, except if Nintendo launch a new revision just before the end of the fiscal year. The question now is to know if they will ship 17M, 18M or 19M of Switch.

Even physical only, that's still impressive. WWII did 1M last year. And came out on november 3rd, almost a month later vs BO4 (october 12th). There are no reason for the game to have sold so few compared to WWII. It's really weird. Or is the digital share much higher than last year for some reason ? Or were there some stock issues ? Weird for COD, impressive MK8D nonetheless
I think the main answer is "Red Dead Redemption 2". In 2013 also (Grand Theft Auto V), all others AAA (FIFA, Battlefield, COD) were significantly down YOY.

Shipped≠sell through
Nintendo can overshipped if they really want to reach their target. Sony did it in 2016 with 3.6 million consoles on shelves end December. In 2017 they shipped less than 2016 but sold 2 million more to consumers.
True, but I think Nintendo already did that during Q1 and Q2.