Nintendo FY3/2019 Q4 Earnings Release, Switch HW 16.95M, FY3/2020 forecast Switch HW 18M

Maple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,309
Really surprised that the Switch is below 35 million LTD. Thought for sure it would be around 36 million. Still, if it can be at 52 million LTD after 3 years, that would be phenomenal. The next 9 months or so will be huge for the Switch.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,624
What's the difference? Attach rate classically refers to the ratio of sales of a primary product to a related secondary product, which is what I thought this was about (systems and games). What does attach rate refer to if not this?
Attach rate is a property of the software and represent the percentage of how many console owners also decided to buy that software (Example: Mario Kart 8 DX has an attach rate of 48% on Switch).
Tie ratio is a property of the console and it represent how many games were on average sold for each console (example: Switch on average has sold 5.40 games for each console sold).
 
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skittzo0413

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,937
They missed the original HW forecast by 3 million (imagine how much revenue that is) but made up with stronger software sales and sustained digital sales growth (all of which have higher profit margins than console hardware).
I guess my point is they didn't revise the revenue or profit guidance at all when they revised down the hardware guidance. It's interesting then that selling 3M fewer hardware units had a greater affect on revenue than it did on profit. I guess maybe Switches still aren't sold for much of a profit?
 

hussien-11

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,855
Jordan
The thing to notice here though, is that Nintendo overestimated itself again. with 3DS they overestimated how much its gonna sell almost every year through its life.
the same pattern is now happening with Switch.

this is really concerning.

sometimes i can't help but feel that after DS/Wii, Nintendo became a victim of its own philosophy. they keep insisting on changing and experimenting with the hardware and/or accessories to achieve the same performance, while they are really not doing enough at the software side of things.

everyone thought that FY2019 release schedule outside Q3 was really weak but Nintendo thought otherwise. even Q3 despite being very strong with Pokemon and Smash, didn't have a different kind of software to attract different customers. maybe Diablo 3 and Warframe, but they needed something stronger than that to complement their own games.

I keep comparing them with Sony even though i don't like Sony's approach to video games that much because Sony has managed its platform this gen brilliantly, they kept expanding their userbase and the reach of their platform purely with software: they pushed Activision for Crash Bandicoot which was a huge hit on their system and helped bringing in a different kind of customers.

Spider-man was also a brilliant move and it used the explosive popularity of super heroes in today's market very, very well.

they also localize their games and market them everywhere, here in the ME region, Days Gone is released localized completely, even the name on the cover is written in Arabic. they also market and communicate directly with their customers using Twitter.

they are also pushing very hard for services and applications, which could be a huge advantage for Switch because of its tablet-like nature, but Nintendo is insisting on pushing the idea that (this is only for video games). well... not having Netflix on your device don't mean your device is going to be used "more" for video games, but it does mean that your device will be used "less".

as a hardware, i fully believe that Switch is the most appealing gaming device in the market, its a new device with a new concept that works really well, but the real problem is Nintendo's own management of the hardware, it didn't reach its full potential last year because the software line-up was really underwhelming for a system as successful as the Switch is in its second year.

first 3 years are also very very important because software will play a key role later, people who bought X or Y will likely buy sequels or spin-offs or similar games later in the system's lifespan.

so it will be real sad to me if Switch didn't have more and better third party support this year, because if more popular titles didn't show this year, they probably will never come, and Switch as a platform won't reach its full potential.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,469
Ah, it looks like you're right:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180426e.pdf

This shows the same numbers for their FY19 forecast. Interesting that they barely made their revenue target but flew by the profit target.
Ah, it looks like you're right:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180426e.pdf

This shows the same numbers for their FY19 forecast. Interesting that they barely made their revenue target but flew by the profit target.
Im assuming that the miss in hardware made a significant dent in revenue. Hardware not being a profit driver didn’t affect those goals and with digital doing outstanding which is higher profit oriented it helped them beat it so much.
 

Mr_F_Snowman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,041
Captain Toad was a $40 simultaneous release. Wooly World wouldn't have been, that's the issue.
Why is that an issue? Tropical freeze / nsmb u are Nintendo select titles available for £13.99. Nintendo doesn't see the nearly the exact same game being readily available at a quarter of the price on another of its systens as an issue so I highly doubt a £40 3DS game would enter their decision making process

The more likely answer is simply bad planning
 
Oct 25, 2017
5,199
Florida
So that puts Tropical Freeze performance at least twice as well as it's original Wii U release, which according to the sales tracker on GAF, topped out at around 1.08 million.

Happy to see Tropical Freeze pulling the type of sales numbers it actually deserved.
 

legend166

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,286
I don't know what's happening with their software pipeline but it's been all over the place and certainly disappointing, considering the Switch was meant to combine their console + handheld software development so the release schedule could be much more consistent.

For essentially the first six months of 2019 Nintendo will have released three games to retail. One of which is a port of a seven year old game, and another is a cardboard VR game. So in terms of new traditional software, you're getting one game in six months, which is also targeted more towards children when you've got a significant older userbase on this thing. That's just very poor planning.

Of course with the ridiculous amount of releases on the eShop and okay third party support, I've got way more games to play than I ever have time for anyway, but in terms of really driving sales Nintendo need to work out what is going on with their software development and try and rectify it. I think they've got a 100+ million selling platform on their hands and due to some poor decisions and the never ending refusal to expand their development teams they're going to end up selling 80 million. Which of course is still wildly successfully and will make them billions of dollars, but still.
 

antonz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,018
How long have these hardware revision rumors been about? Could they be contributing to the drop off?
They had a very weak first half where sales were basically keeping pace with the year prior rather than any sort of growth. Then E3 occurred and sales picked up and have been on a steady increase since. Problem is you cant have a flat half a year and hope the last half explodes to such a degree to make up for that flatness. You can see how different things are now where Switch just had the best 1st Quarter performance of any current console this generation in North America.
 

MysticGon

Member
Oct 31, 2017
2,497
Okay so FY 2019 they shot for the moon but came up short. FY 2020 they expect 1 million more hardware and 15 million more software. In a year that sees both Animal Crossing and mainline Pokemon that seems conservative. Nevermind the new model rumors.

I think this is Nintendo playing it safe and being a little coy. Or Nintendo really is going to leave Switch as it is and let the software do all of the work like it did for Wii. No rule saying there needs to be a revision.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
2,886
I don't know what's happening with their software pipeline but it's been all over the place and certainly disappointing, considering the Switch was meant to combine their console + handheld software development so the release schedule could be much more consistent.

For essentially the first six months of 2019 Nintendo will have released three games to retail. One of which is a port of a seven year old game, and another is a cardboard VR game. So in terms of new traditional software, you're getting one game in six months, which is also targeted more towards children when you've got a significant older userbase on this thing. That's just very poor planning.

Of course with the ridiculous amount of releases on the eShop and okay third party support, I've got way more games to play than I ever have time for anyway, but in terms of really driving sales Nintendo need to work out what is going on with their software development and try and rectify it. I think they've got a 100+ million selling platform on their hands and due to some poor decisions and the never ending refusal to expand their development teams they're going to end up selling 80 million. Which of course is still wildly successfully and will make them billions of dollars, but still.
I agree. I understand that Nintendo makes more money in the second half of the year, but the disparity between the first half and second half of 2019 is baffling.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
2,360
I’m shocked that they missed their revised forecast considering the current sales. They must have really overshipped last year. Also it seems to imply that Nintendo expected the switch to perform incredibly strongly this quarter despite just missing their last forecast (despite switch performing way above expectations they still just missed their revised forecast).

The next year forecast is interesting. I do wonder if they’re just being more conservative this time or do they have less coming than we all expect? If all the announced games make it this year + a revision and price cut I’d be shocked if they didn’t easily beat last years numbers.

Either they’re being super conservative or we’re expecting way too much from Nintendo this year.
 

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,143
How far we’ve come from the Wii U to have the Switch being in line with the fucking PS4 a “disappointment”

Nintendo really is back.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
2,360
I don't know what's happening with their software pipeline but it's been all over the place and certainly disappointing, considering the Switch was meant to combine their console + handheld software development so the release schedule could be much more consistent.

For essentially the first six months of 2019 Nintendo will have released three games to retail. One of which is a port of a seven year old game, and another is a cardboard VR game. So in terms of new traditional software, you're getting one game in six months, which is also targeted more towards children when you've got a significant older userbase on this thing. That's just very poor planning.

Of course with the ridiculous amount of releases on the eShop and okay third party support, I've got way more games to play than I ever have time for anyway, but in terms of really driving sales Nintendo need to work out what is going on with their software development and try and rectify it. I think they've got a 100+ million selling platform on their hands and due to some poor decisions and the never ending refusal to expand their development teams they're going to end up selling 80 million. Which of course is still wildly successfully and will make them billions of dollars, but still.
Yeah it doesn’t make a lot of sense and I thought the unified platform was attempting to alleviate exactly this problem. I’m not expecting a lot in the 1st half of the year either, even just one of this big games would have made a huge difference.
 

JackLinks

Banned
Mar 21, 2019
353
The 18m target seems too pessimistic. This year we're apparently getting

  1. A price cut through a cheaper redesign
  2. A power up through a more expensive redesign
  3. A mainline pokemon
  4. Animal crossing
  5. Mario maker
I'm expecting third party support from larger third parties to be mediocre (as usual), but it shouldnt make that much difference
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,610
I don't know what's happening with their software pipeline but it's been all over the place and certainly disappointing, considering the Switch was meant to combine their console + handheld software development so the release schedule could be much more consistent.

For essentially the first six months of 2019 Nintendo will have released three games to retail. One of which is a port of a seven year old game, and another is a cardboard VR game. So in terms of new traditional software, you're getting one game in six months, which is also targeted more towards children when you've got a significant older userbase on this thing. That's just very poor planning.

Of course with the ridiculous amount of releases on the eShop and okay third party support, I've got way more games to play than I ever have time for anyway, but in terms of really driving sales Nintendo need to work out what is going on with their software development and try and rectify it. I think they've got a 100+ million selling platform on their hands and due to some poor decisions and the never ending refusal to expand their development teams they're going to end up selling 80 million. Which of course is still wildly successfully and will make them billions of dollars, but still.
Agreed. The first half of this year has been incredibly disappointing from a first party perspective. Unfortunately, I don’t expect this to change in future years. The first half will be weak, the second half will be flooded with software.
 

JigsawPSN

Banned
Apr 11, 2019
150
For the current year with new Pokemon, AC and Zelda and catalog titles they will be the best selling console of the year since PS4 will enter its sunset stage due to the release of PS5.
gta6.

ps4 sales wont go anywhere even when the ps5 launches. sony can support it far longer than the ps3 because of backwards compatibility, especially if the ps5 costs 500, they still have the ps4 for 200 and pro for 350, and every console can play the same game. its like when nintendo merged handheld and console market, sony is merging console generations

they want to beat that ps2 milestone you know
 
Mar 22, 2019
120
Brazil
gta6.

ps4 sales wont go anywhere even when the ps5 launches. sony can support it far longer than the ps3 because of backwards compatibility, especially if the ps5 costs 500, they still have the ps4 for 200 and pro for 350, and every console can play the same game. its like when nintendo merged handheld and console market, sony is merging console generations

they want to beat that ps2 milestone you know
PS4 Ultra Slim 7nm, digital only, for U$150,00 could sell another 20~30 Million units.
 

Asuka3+1

Alt Account
Banned
Feb 6, 2019
491
gta6.

ps4 sales wont go anywhere even when the ps5 launches. sony can support it far longer than the ps3 because of backwards compatibility, especially if the ps5 costs 500, they still have the ps4 for 200 and pro for 350, and every console can play the same game. its like when nintendo merged handheld and console market, sony is merging console generations

they want to beat that ps2 milestone you know
is in Sony best interest TO NOT do it emselves. PS2 overstaying was the result of PS3 being soo meh on release, as a hardware manufacturer you want people to move on. sure, PS4 being strong would be nice and dandy but that is also a potential PS5 sale lost.
 

Tarikbrother

Banned
Apr 25, 2019
38
How far we’ve come from the Wii U to have the Switch being in line with the fucking PS4 a “disappointment”

Nintendo really is back.
PS4 didn't have the next-generation right around the corner and we're not in 2015 anymore.

Nintendo expected to sell much more Switch on the 2nd year than they did in the 1st. They didn't even succeed to sell as much Switch as they did last year. Good luck maintaining the same kind of legs when the next-generation hit.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
2,360
PS4 didn't have the next-generation right around the corner and we're not in 2015 anymore.

Nintendo expected to sell much more Switch on the 2nd year than they did in the 1st. They didn't even succeed to sell as much Switch as they did last year. Good luck maintaining the same kind of legs when the next-generation hit.
They did sell more than last FY.
 

chrisPjelly

Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
6,252
Damn, fell a lot shorter than I expected, but still overall a good result. 18 million for the next FY certainly sounds interesting considering we know at least 1 new hardware sku will come out
 

LordByron28

Member
Nov 5, 2017
1,149
unless they have a massive change of heart, Nintendo likely is doing the best they are willingly to get 3rd party, but they have a different focus in 2 aspects when compared to PS and XB
1) obviously the hardware.
2) Importance, S and M can (and will) court better to 3rd party than Nintendo will cause PS and XB bread and butter is mostly 3rd party games (1st party are far in between with even longer dev cycles than what Nintendo does), on the other hand. Nintendo is its own MVP, 3rd party being nothing more than the side gig. and with WiiU release, Nintendo already got 1st hand taste of how risky (and disastrous) it is to try to run primary on 3rd party and second on their own.
To be honest, I felt a noticeable uptick in 3rd party software starting in April. April-July alone we have FFX &X2/ XII, Dragons Dogma, Assasins Creed 3 remastered, Darksiders warmastered, RE Origins Collection, RE4, Cadence, Cuphead, Super Meat Boy, Mortal Kombat 11, Super Dragonball Z Heroes, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Wolfenstein, Team Sonic Racing, Crash Bandicoot Racing, Yokai Watch 4, Dragon Quest 11 S, etc. While nothing that major, it is certainly a significant improvement in support compared to previous years. It makes me curious what games will release for later this year. With Skyrim and Doom launching holiday 2017 and Diablo 3 launching holiday 2018, I suspect there could be another western title in the same vein. Maybe that fabled GTAV port, witcher 3, fallout, etc.

The Switch is starting to sell well enough that I'm surprised how much longer Warner Bros studios, EA, Capcom and Activision can ignore it. I'm surprised Warner Bros studios hasnt released any Arkham game ports or Injustice 2. EA could be more supportive with sports titles and Sims 4 port which I think would suit the switch audience well. I'd also love ports of the Dead Space titles but that isnt happening. Capcom is still playing catch up; I'd like to see ports of RE5 and 6 at the least. RE2make and RE7 will never happen. Other ports that would probably be a good match would be Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3, Tatsunoko vs. Capcom: Cross Generation of Heroes HD, Zack & Wiki HD, Viewtiful Joe HD, Monster Hunter Stories HD, Resident Evil Chronicles titles, etc. Activision could be more supportive with Call of Duty in some form and Spyro Trilogy.

I'm curious what other titles Bethesda plans on bringing to Switch. I'm really hoping for the Wvil Within series. Ubisoft may also have something substantial for Switch since they had MxR in 2017 and Starlink(with star fox crossover) in 2018.
 

mjw

Member
Oct 27, 2017
194
The thing to notice here though, is that Nintendo overestimated itself again. with 3DS they overestimated how much its gonna sell almost every year through its life.
the same pattern is now happening with Switch.
What pattern? They've missed 1 out 3 HW targets for Switch. They also surpassed each of their SW targets, unlike 3DS. I think you're overreacting a bit
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,733
Sydney
What about ps4? It will blow past Wii's numbers this year so that has sold extremely well too.
Switch is keeping pace with PS4 so therefor it is selling extremely well?
PS4 and Switch are selling well, but not in the league of peak Wii/DS.
PS4 has sold well for a long period.

Wii/DS sold explosively. I still remember the NPD when Wii sold almost 4 million in a single month in a single country. DS sold 30 million a year, two years in a row (and 27 million another year). Both were almost entirely due to Nintendo software and when they pivoted to 3DS sales dropped off due to not having the trail of third party games to sustain their tails like consoles that sell that much should have had.
 

MegaXZero

Member
Jun 21, 2018
2,288
PS4 didn't have the next-generation right around the corner and we're not in 2015 anymore.

Nintendo expected to sell much more Switch on the 2nd year than they did in the 1st. They didn't even succeed to sell as much Switch as they did last year. Good luck maintaining the same kind of legs when the next-generation hit.
They did sell more than last fiscal year. What are you even talking about?
 

Tarikbrother

Banned
Apr 25, 2019
38
User Banned (Permanent): Needless Hostility + Platform Warring. User in junior phase.
"Huhuhuh he was wrong about the fiscal year numbers". Who got time for nitpicking about dumb numbers like that ?

What a bunch of dumb Nintendo nerds that can't stomach someone thinking Switch legs will be cut short by the next generation.

Keep your dumb Nintendo "datas", we'll see who's right on the bigger picture shortly.

I bet you all come from the same discord, discussing stuff to fill your shitty life. Dumbfucks.
 

Kcannon

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,123
2018/03/31 : 17,69 Switch shipped. Source : https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180426e.pdf
2019/03/31 : 16.95 Switch shipped. Source : https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190425e.pdf

Don't make me lose my time again.
You're forgetting a month.

"Huhuhuh he was wrong about the fiscal year numbers". Who got time for nitpicking about dumb numbers like that ?

What a bunch of dumb Nintendo nerds that can't stomach someone thinking Switch legs will be cut short by the next generation.

Keep your dumb Nintendo "datas", we'll see who's right on the bigger picture shortly.

I bet you all come from the same discord, discussing stuff to fill your shitty life. Dumbfucks.
Lol.