Nintendo FY3/2019 Q4 Earnings Release, Switch HW 16.95M, FY3/2020 forecast Switch HW 18M

UltraMagnus · Apr 25, 2019

Oregano said:
Pathetic hardware numbers to be honest, and the forecast for next year isn't much higher.

Time for revisions/price cut is now.

"Pathetic" is a bit a much, those are still quite healthy numbers. Software sales are spectacular.

Fact is hitting 20 mill is hard when you don't have great 3rd party support and one company basically has to carry the platform most of the time. Price cuts/revisions only do so much as well unless they are bringing more content to the table.

Faiyaz · Apr 25, 2019

The dry spells in Q1-Q2 last year were bound to catch up. But ~17 million units in a fiscal year is still pretty good.

massoluk · Apr 25, 2019

Oregano said:
Pathetic hardware numbers to be honest, and the forecast for next year isn't much higher.

Time for revisions/price cut is now.

Uhhhh no it's not. A bit too optimistic, me included, but that number ain't pathetic.

evilmonkey · Apr 25, 2019

mazi said:
yeah i think for link's awakening the ceiling is 7 or 8 million, with 6 being a safe prediction.

6 million is way too high for Link's Awakening IMO. The original release and DX version respectively sold 3.83 million and 2.22 million. I think it'll land at around 4-5 million.

SinCityAssassin · Apr 25, 2019

Nuclear Muffin · Apr 25, 2019

MrKlaw said:
So *if* they talk about a revised model, do we expect a press release or similar ahead of the investor meeting or after?

If they are going to announce one here, it'll probably be tomorrow at the investor meeting.

Asuka3+1 · Apr 25, 2019

tho its a bit disappointing they did not meet even revised numbers, at least they decided to ride it instead of keep stuffing the channels just to meet ends as some people here where "expecting" em to do so

Marmoka · Apr 25, 2019

They only expect to sell 1 million 3DS units? I guess we can finally confirm they are moving forward and focusing only on Switch when developing games.

ggx2ac · Apr 25, 2019

I have finished updating the OP, please let me know if there are any errors.

antonz · Apr 25, 2019

Nintendo massively overestimated the first half of the last year especially for how little they actually released. Things like LABO while interesting novelties were not a Wii Sports and had little to no impact on sales. Switch Sales were pretty flat until E3 where they started an upward climb and have been since. They should have honestly never predicted 20 million when it relied on things like Labo being the next Mega Hit. People are saying Nintendo Massively over shipped in Q4 to get to where its at but NPD today revealed Switch had the best 1st Quarter of any console this generation in NA so Nintendo has been clearly selling hardware.

Devilgunman · Apr 25, 2019

SinCItyAssassin said:

Man, those dark times before and after the Wii/ds era are quiet frightening.

MatrixMan.exe · Apr 25, 2019

Oregano said:
Pathetic hardware numbers to be honest, and the forecast for next year isn't much higher.

Time for revisions/price cut is now.

Pathetic seems a bit hyperbolic. Nintendo always 20 million was a lofty goal and I think people on Era got way too carried away with Switch's initial succeses in 2017/2018. The target was always ambitious and nowhere near a given, especially in a market that's some competitive.

Not to mention Labo, which again people here were saying would be "HUGE", came out to little fanfare. Smash and Let's Go did their job, but Labo didn't

Sandfox · Apr 25, 2019

antonz said:
Nintendo massively overestimated the first half of the last year especially for how little they actually released. Things like LABO while interesting novelties were not a Wii Sports and had little to no impact on sales. Switch Sales were pretty flat until E3 where they started an upward climb and have been since. They should have honestly never predicted 20 million when it relied on things like Labo being the next Mega Hit. People are saying Nintendo Massively over shipped in Q4 to get to where its at but NPD today revealed Switch had the best 1st Quarter of any console this generation in NA so Nintendo has been clearly selling hardware.

With last year there were clearly games that got pushed to 2019 and that likely messed with things.

Asuka3+1 · Apr 25, 2019

Devilgunman said:
dark times

being a profitable company is in no way "dark times" only real damage were 3 years on the red, and even then, those 2 years combined, do no amount to the last profitable year before em.

MegaXZero · Apr 25, 2019

I like this new president. Keep the new HW goal reasonable and attainable.

SinCityAssassin · Apr 25, 2019

Asuka3+1 said:
being a profitable company is in no way "dark times" only real damage were 3 years on the red, and even then, those 2 years combined, do no amount to the last profitable year before em.

Did a big number on that stock value though.

dean_rcg · Apr 25, 2019

Just saw this - "We remain skeptical about the long-term success of the Switch and the mobile business," Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in an April 22 report.

mjw · Apr 25, 2019

antonz said:
Nintendo massively overestimated the first half of the last year especially for how little they actually released. Things like LABO while interesting novelties were not a Wii Sports and had little to no impact on sales. Switch Sales were pretty flat until E3 where they started an upward climb and have been since. They should have honestly never predicted 20 million when it relied on things like Labo being the next Mega Hit. People are saying Nintendo Massively over shipped in Q4 to get to where its at but NPD today revealed Switch had the best 1st Quarter of any console this generation in NA so Nintendo has been clearly selling hardware.

They overshipped in Q3. I agree with you though

DeuceGamer · Apr 25, 2019

Some weird things going on with their shipping this year. Maybe they are letting stock run somewhat low expecting a revision soon, while they overshippes in Q3?

Still very good numbers overall and Nintendo is very healthy. They are looking at a massive FY this year IMO, especially if they launch both of their mobile games this year, which have big potential as well.

Asuka3+1 · Apr 25, 2019

Nintendo only shipped 2,47M from Jan to March, given that, USA and Japan alone, they sold 2M units in the same time, the surplus from Q3 was quite big, Im sure they really really really expects to do better in holidays.

plusaflag · Apr 25, 2019

Borrowed from our kind ZhugeEX :

Compared to the same quarter last year, digital sales have doubled.

But that remains paltry compared to what PSN pushes:

Timppis · Apr 25, 2019

So Nintendo didn't hit the 17 million goal.

Did anyone mention Doomed yet?

GiantEnemyGoomba · Apr 25, 2019

Really happy for the success the Switch has had so far. After seeing what they're planning starting this summer, I'm expecting a great lineup in the years to come.

Deleted member 36622 · Apr 25, 2019

dean_rcg said:
Just saw this - "We remain skeptical about the long-term success of the Switch and the mobile business," Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in an April 22 report.

Michael Pachter's words are irrelevant, he likes to anger people with questionable (often factually wrong) statements just to generate articles, he's the human form of a clickbait.

Lord Azrael · Apr 25, 2019

Nintendo did roughly 17m which is great, but now everyone's gonna call it bad because they originally forecasted 20m stupidly. They've got only themselves to blame

Asuka3+1 · Apr 25, 2019

Melkr_ said:
They THOUGHT Pokémon Let's Go would be a hit. Bad numbers, hopefully they do much better than 18M in year 3. They should be doing 25M.

"omg everything in this post is some hyperbolic Bullc-"
>Look at user
never mind, move along, usual stuff from the usual people.

unfashionable · Apr 25, 2019

SinCItyAssassin said:

That some incredible profit growth right there, and second half of the calendar year look incredible with software lineup & no major titles slipping, plus a lull in ps4/xbox as they prepare for new hardware releases

Combine that with a reduced price mini and strength of their eshop sales (higher profit margins) they could end up with wii level profits even if revenue is less

Nuclear Muffin · Apr 25, 2019

Asuka3+1 said:
Nintendo only shipped 2,47M from Jan to March, given that, USA and Japan alone, they sold 2M units in the same time, the surplus from Q3 was quite big, Im sure they really really really expects to do better in holidays.

They were probably expecting a lot more from Pokemon Let's Go; both in terms of its software sales and its ability to push hardware...

Deleted member 36622 · Apr 25, 2019

16.95 mln is basically 17, they reached the revised goal, not the stellar sales people expect but it is still a huge achievement.

Switch outsold N64 and it is very close to Xbox One after only 2 years.

Asuka3+1 · Apr 25, 2019

Saint-14 said:
Overshipping or there are markets where the Switch isn't moving much?

likely Overshipping spilling over from Q3.

requiem · Apr 25, 2019

delete

Asuka3+1 · Apr 25, 2019

Nuclear Muffin said:
They were probably expecting a lot more from Pokemon Let's Go; both in terms of its software sales and its ability to push hardware...

Im thinking more on December overall, NPD shows a decline in October but a boost in Nov of almost double. December was up YoY but less than 20%.

randompasserby · Apr 25, 2019

Timppis said:
So Nintendo didn't hit the 17 million goal.

Did anyone mention Doomed yet?

Actually searched the thread and congrats! You're the first to say it.
So eager to preemptively mock it and instead being the only one who brought it up... kinda counter productive don't you think?

DeuceGamer · Apr 25, 2019

unfashionable said:
That some incredible profit growth right there, and second half of the calendar year look incredible with software lineup & no major titles slipping, plus a lull in ps4/xbox as they prepare for new hardware releases

Combine that with a reduced price mini and strength of their eshop sales (higher profit margins) they could end up with wii level profits even if revenue is less

They also have 2 mobile titles planned to release this FY. If either one of those have success, it will also boost their profits. Nintendo is still in fantastic shape.

Deleted member 37233 · Apr 25, 2019

randompasserby said:
Actually searched the thread and congrats! You're the first to say it.
So eager to preemptively mock it and instead being the only one who brought it up... kinda counter productive don't you think?

One person mentioned "pathetic", which isn't far off I would argue.

requiem · Apr 25, 2019

Disappointed to be honest. I was confident they were being super conservative with the 17 million number.

z0m3le · Apr 25, 2019

So at 34.75M they have outsold the N64 in 2 years, and are going to outsell the SNES (49Million) by the end of the calendar year.

With Xbox 1 global sales at 41 Million around the end of January, Switch should pass it before then as well. Next after that is NES at 63 Million, which should happen next year.

Maxina · Apr 25, 2019

Oregano said:
Pathetic hardware numbers to be honest, and the forecast for next year isn't much higher.

Time for revisions/price cut is now.

SinCItyAssassin said:

B-but but m-my hardware numbers...

Strings · Apr 25, 2019

It was crazy seeing a couple posters go "Yeah, they revised their forecasts, but I'm pretty sure they're going to sell ~19m anyway cause..."

Really surprised by their 2020 forecast though. They've got a pretty good slate this year and their two competitors are dinosaurs - if there's ever a year they're going to hit 20m, it should be this one.

... Expected the Let's Go numbers. It felt like they crazy overshipped those.

Deleted member 9971 · Apr 25, 2019

People doomin and gloomin while they are gonna outsell xbox one soonish and grab second place. Quite the doom indeed.

Honestly i am just glad everyone is doing well now its better that way. No one wants to see em fail why even? They all bring good games to the table thats what matters.

Simba1 · Apr 25, 2019

pld said:
In hindsight the 20m FY projection was not a great move. They should have gone with 15m.

Less than previous FY?
Nah, but they should have gone for 17-18m.

Oregano said:
Pathetic hardware numbers to be honest, and the forecast for next year isn't much higher.

Time for revisions/price cut is now.

17m is pathetic?
Lest not carry away, 17m is still very good number, espacilly when we know Switch was selling hole year with launch price and with bundle with one game just for BF.

unfashionable · Apr 25, 2019

DeuceGamer said:
They also have 2 mobile titles planned to release this FY. If either one of those have success, it will also boost their profits. Nintendo is still in fantastic shape.

yeah I saw the news of android beta test for mario kart soon, that could be a monster

Simba1 · Apr 25, 2019

I am generally surprised that that sales are not about 17m, I expected around 18m because sales in Japan and US in Q1 are around 30-50% stronger than they were in Q1 of last year, that means that Q3 was over shipped or that they going with tight supplies of current Switch because new revision could be launch soon.

randompasserby · Apr 25, 2019

Lichtsang said:
One person mentioned "pathetic", which isn't far off I would argue.

Ahaha I guess it was inevitable *sigh*

Squiddo ᔦꙬᔨ said:
People doomin and gloomin while they are gonna outsell xbox one soonish and grab second place. Quite the doom indeed.

Honestly i am just glad everyone is doing well now its better that way. No one wants to see em fail why even? They all bring good games to the table thats what matters.

That reminds me, how are the other two doing in comparison?
Both year per year and life to date if possible.

Nuclear Muffin · Apr 25, 2019

Strings said:
It was crazy seeing a couple posters go "Yeah, they revised their forecasts, but I'm pretty sure they're going to sell ~19m anyway cause..."

Really surprised by their 2020 forecast though. They've got a pretty good slate this year and their two competitors are dinosaurs - if there's ever a year they're going to hit 20m, it should be this one.

... Expected the Let's Go numbers. It felt like they crazy overshipped those.

Well they've already played the Next-Gen Pokemon card now. Let's Go will hurt Sword/Shield's potential impact on Switch hardware; since a Pokemon game is already on Switch now.

Animal Crossing is their biggest hardware driver they've announced this year; and that's not going to push more hardware than Pokemon would've. There's only so much it can do on its own.

Otherwise, their lineup consists of solid mid-tier sellers, but nothing else that is utterly earth shattering in terms of sales; certainly nothing that can reach the 10 million+ tier outside of Animal Crossing (and Pokemon S/S, but its effect on hardware will be blunted thanks to Let's Go).

I actually don't see Nintendo hitting 18 million this year, unless there is a new revision AND a significant price cut...

Faiyaz · Apr 25, 2019

For a second freaking remake of Kanto (and 60 dollars at that), I think Lets Go did pretty well.

Oregano · Apr 25, 2019

MatrixMan.exe said:
Pathetic seems a bit hyperbolic. Nintendo always 20 million was a lofty goal and I think people on Era got way too carried away with Switch's initial succeses in 2017/2018. The target was always ambitious and nowhere near a given, especially in a market that's some competitive.

Not to mention Labo, which again people here were saying would be "HUGE", came out to little fanfare. Smash and Let's Go did their job, but Labo didn't

Missing 20m isn't the issue, missing the substantially reduced 17m target is, and only expecting 18m for this year is even worse. This year will be Switch's peak and they could/should be doing much better.

BowieZ · Apr 25, 2019

NintenDuvo08 said:
The fact that New Super Mario Bros sold that much is mind blowing

Wait, why?

If you are one of the many Switch owners who never had a Wii U, your last Super Mario Bros platformer was either 6 years ago on a tiny handheld screen, or, more likely, nearly a decade ago.

Timppis · Apr 25, 2019

randompasserby said:
Actually searched the thread and congrats! You're the first to say it.
So eager to preemptively mock it and instead being the only one who brought it up... kinda counter productive don't you think?

Nah. Im actually proud and impressed of the people here because of it.

Stock didn't take a hit. It was a bummer for m'self and a little surprising after the revision, but nothing too bad. Switch is still doing fantastic.

Those software sales are something out of dreams.

ThisIsBlitz21 · Apr 25, 2019

Mario Party almost doubled Pokemon sales this quarter. Interesting.

Nintendo FY3/2019 Q4 Earnings Release, Switch HW 16.95M, FY3/2020 forecast Switch HW 18M

One Winged Slayer

Alt Account

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?

Alt Account

One Winged Slayer

Alt Account

User requested ban

User requested account closure

Alt Account

User requested account closure

Alt Account

Alt Account

User requested account closure

One Winged Slayer