Needs to have a retail release to count
Needs to have a retail release to count
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It is the most normal, very few people dedicate time to the post-game of any game.
But still this isn't a good comparison. PS4 launched in November so here the PS4 counts 1 more month and happens to be freaking december.aligned quarterly (nsw launched march 2017 for its first fiscal year), ps4 was at 57.1m at the end of december 2016.
I barely have time to finish the games I start... Spending 100hs in a game is impossible for me. Even with the Switch.It is the most normal, very few people dedicate time to the post-game of any game.
Correct, and the Switch should stay ahead for a long time.But still this isn't a good comparison. PS4 launched in November so here the PS4 counts 1 more month and happens to be freaking december.
Monthly aligned the Switch is over the PS4.
How does it look comparing by months? Won't PS4 "next" December be enough to leap over Switch again? It's what has been happening every year with this discussion until now :P
Behind by only 1.33mil launch align (quarterly)Switch at the end of this March is at the same place as PS4 at the end of that December, so it's already past that December.
I think it's actually behind PS4 a bit but that could change probably at the end of the next quarter.
Huh interesting. I've always been the type to do the post game and try to find some shinies and complete my Pokédex, so I figured that would have more interest since there's so much to doThat is what happens with almost all the people who play Pokémon, the percentage that dedicates their time to multiplayer or postgame is very low.
Maybe Rocket League?Minecraft
Mario & Sonic
Spyro
Crash Team Racing
The Witcher III
Mortal Kombat 11
Mario & Rabbids
Just Dance 2020
Fifa 20
Overwatch
Dragon Quest XIS
are all likely candidates
This is only during this past fiscal year. I don't think Rocket League has such great legs on the switch, I might be wrong though
Most of my acquaintances who play Pokemon are too lazy to even move their old Pokemon from 3DS to Pokemon Home.Huh interesting. I've always been the type to do the post game and try to find some shinies and complete my Pokédex, so I figured that would have more interest since there's so much to do
Yea Switch should be over the PS4 after April but i think PS4's january+february might be stronger than May+June. I remember that year the Gold edition PS4 came out and i think it was the year of Crash also, which boosted the sales for the PS4 significantly in June. So i do think it will pass over the switch for a little again. The test will be this FY. If Switch can do over their 19 million projection, i think the Switch has chances to keep the pace of the PS4 lifetime and finish close to it over or under.
They specified we are roughly at the mid-life of the Switch. I really think there will be another model or something soon enough. There is multiple huge titles on the way too and a price cut will be coming one day. They will start putting a lot more money on advertising this year to reach a new crowd of non big gamers. I think this means if there is no price cut, we will see more bundle and great deals for BF and the holidays.
So Nintendo is forecasting a 19m Switch FY21, what are people's thoughts on that? Are they low-balling again to break forecast or do you think they are lowballing because they know they won't have a lot of inventory, and or software this year?
I also noted Software forecast is also down to 140M for FY21 from 168.72 in FY20.
So Nintendo is forecasting a 19m Switch FY21, what are people's thoughts on that? Are they low-balling again to break forecast or do you think they are lowballing because they know they won't have a lot of inventory, and or software this year?
AC is huge, but I don't see anything topping Mario Kart anytime soon.I've always thought AC could be Nintendo's biggest series if more people who typically don't call themselves "gamers" simply knew about it. Looks like that's starting to happen. Considering my wife and tons of her friends now own a Switch just for AC, the numbers don't surprise me. It's making the rounds on social media in ways most games don't. It also doesn't hurt that it's basically the perfect game to play during a pandemic when you're stuck at home. But the broad appeal of AC can't be overstated.
Congrats to P* and the Astral Chain team. Great game.
Also, neither of the Bayonetta games have sold a million units on Switch? :(
Last year's forecast was originally 18M hardware and 125M software. These things don't mean a whole lot. And given everything going on, I wouldn't read much into this.So Nintendo is forecasting a 19m Switch FY21, what are people's thoughts on that? Are they low-balling again to break forecast or do you think they are lowballing because they know they won't have a lot of inventory, and or software this year?
I also noted Software forecast is also down to 140M for FY21 from 168.72 in FY20.
ggx2ac, your numbers for Mario Kart 8 DX and Breath of the Wild are messed up in the OP in the FY chart. Not sure exactly how but they don't add up for sure.
After 13 Quarters on the market NSW 55.77mil and PS4 57.10mil (1.33mil gap)
PS4
2.9mil Q4 (60.0mil)
3.3mil Q1 (63.3mil)
4.2mil Q2 (67.5mil)
9.0mil Q3 (76.5mil)
so let's say Nintendo does around 21mil again this FY, then it'll pull ahead
NSW
3.93mil Q1 (59.7mil)
3.90mil Q2 (63.6mil)
10.60mil Q3 (74.2mil)
2.70mil Q4 (76.
Didn't Nintendo say they want post summer to make up for low shipments now? I think Q1 may be low, like 3M, and 5-6M in Q2 where production is back to full speed. I want to see 25M this fiscal year. Hypothetically, if Japan will do 6M this fiscal year and makes up for 25% of shipments, can NA do 9-10M which is 40% of 24-25M?Imo, i think both Q1/Q2 will be between 4-4.5 million. Q3 will be 10-11 million, and Q4 something like 3 million.
So i predict 21-23 million, let's avg that, i'll go with 22 million.
Didn't Nintendo say they want post summer to make up for low shipments now? I think Q1 may be low, like 3M, and 5-6M in Q2 where production is back to full speed. I want to see 25M this fiscal year. Hypothetically, if Japan will do 6M this fiscal year and makes up for 25% of shipments, can NA do 9-10M which is 40% of 24-25M?
Whatever we see sold will basically know what shipments are. One of the very rare times we can use this method lol. Japan already sold 300k so far this quarter with GW and the rest of May/June.Based on sell-through in the US and Japan alone Q1 should be higher than 3M. Considering they had zero inventory at the end of Q4 and are gonna wind up selling close to if not over 1M in April just in the US and Japan.
To sum it up:
- Best selling Smash game ever
- Best selling 3D Mario ever
- Best selling Zelda ever
- Best selling Luigi's Mansion ever
- Best selling Splatoon ever
- Best selling Mario Party ever
- Best selling Mario Kart ever --> in progress
- Best selling Fire Emblem ever
- Best selling Animal Crossing ever
- Best selling Pokémon games of the century
- Best selling Xenoblade ever
--> that's the Switch
Yeap and you can add future paper Mario/fzero/Metroid/star fox/pikmin to that listAren't Mario Tennis Aces and Mario Maker 2 the best selling entries in their respective franchises?
Yeap and you can add future paper Mario/fzero/Metroid/star fox/pikmin to that list
Wow I actually didn't realize that. Is it the only franchise with new games (not spin off or port) that came out only on gcn and wiiu? Maybe with the switch it'll expand. I can easily see it doing 3mil
I'll be shocked if Pikmin can crack 3 million. Maybe if they push some kid friendlier modes and the multiplayer.Wow I actually didn't realize that. Is it the only franchise with new games (not spin off or port) that came out only on gcn and wiiu? Maybe with the switch it'll expand. I can easily see it doing 3mil
Pikmin 4 should easily do that and Pikmin 3 Deluxe alone should sell around 2m imo.I'll be shocked if Pikmin can crack 3 million. Maybe if they push some kid friendlier modes and the multiplayer.
As long as we get a new one, I'll be happy.
So Nintendo is forecasting a 19m Switch FY21, what are people's thoughts on that? Are they low-balling again to break forecast or do you think they are lowballing because they know they won't have a lot of inventory, and or software this year?
I also noted Software forecast is also down to 140M for FY21 from 168.72 in FY20.
I'll be shocked if Pikmin can crack 3 million. Maybe if they push some kid friendlier modes and the multiplayer.
As long as we get a new one, I'll be happy.
On that note, if we include the GC, their console transitions have been pretty rough. I hope Switch is more of a handheld transition, though their last transition from DS to 3DS saw significant A decline as well due to mobile, pricing, and other factors.
Anyone want to get crazy? Animal Crossing shipped 11.77M in 2 weeks, and sell-through was 13.41M after 6 weeks just in US, EU and Japan, so probably close to 15M worldwide. What do you think lifetime sales will be for the system? I'm honestly debating whether it could reach 40M lifetime. This game is just reaching some critical mass where it is breaking out in such a way in the mainstream, more than games like Smash, SMO, and BOTW have, or even than Pokémon Sword/Shield. I think this game could reach unprecedented levels of sales, slotting in close to that 40M mark. Animal Crossing is a very leggy franchise, which helps as well, along with the aforementioned mainstream breakthrough it has had and the great reviews. It's definitely one to watch.
Not crazy. BRAVE. ;)Anyone want to get crazy? Animal Crossing shipped 11.77M in 2 weeks, and sell-through was 13.41M after 6 weeks just in US, EU and Japan, so probably close to 15M worldwide. What do you think lifetime sales will be for the system? I'm honestly debating whether it could reach 40M lifetime. This game is just reaching some critical mass where it is breaking out in such a way in the mainstream, more than games like Smash, SMO, and BOTW have, or even than Pokémon Sword/Shield. I think this game could reach unprecedented levels of sales, slotting in close to that 40M mark. Animal Crossing is a very leggy franchise, which helps as well, along with the aforementioned mainstream breakthrough it has had and the great reviews. It's definitely one to watch.
Anyone want to get crazy? Animal Crossing shipped 11.77M in 2 weeks, and sell-through was 13.41M after 6 weeks just in US, EU and Japan, so probably close to 15M worldwide. What do you think lifetime sales will be for the system? I'm honestly debating whether it could reach 40M lifetime. This game is just reaching some critical mass where it is breaking out in such a way in the mainstream, more than games like Smash, SMO, and BOTW have, or even than Pokémon Sword/Shield. I think this game could reach unprecedented levels of sales, slotting in close to that 40M mark. Animal Crossing is a very leggy franchise, which helps as well, along with the aforementioned mainstream breakthrough it has had and the great reviews. It's definitely one to watch.
Did you catch T-bone fever?Anyone want to get crazy? Animal Crossing shipped 11.77M in 2 weeks, and sell-through was 13.41M after 6 weeks just in US, EU and Japan, so probably close to 15M worldwide. What do you think lifetime sales will be for the system? I'm honestly debating whether it could reach 40M lifetime. This game is just reaching some critical mass where it is breaking out in such a way in the mainstream, more than games like Smash, SMO, and BOTW have, or even than Pokémon Sword/Shield. I think this game could reach unprecedented levels of sales, slotting in close to that 40M mark. Animal Crossing is a very leggy franchise, which helps as well, along with the aforementioned mainstream breakthrough it has had and the great reviews. It's definitely one to watch.