Nintendo FY3/2022 Q1 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q1 - 4.45M (-21.7% YoY), 89.04M LTD

ggx2ac · Aug 5, 2021

My other thread with historical data will be updated later on to correct any errors from last fiscal year in previous earnings results threads.
____

There are 9 one-million seller titles (including third party) for the quarter.

Note: M = Million (or rather 10^6)

1st Quarter Earnings Release, data as of June 30th, 2021: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2021/210805e.pdf

Code:

+-----------------------------------------------------------------+
| Nintendo Co., Ltd.| Net Sales   | Operating Income | Net Profit |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter       |   ¥322,647M |        ¥119,752M |  ¥92,747M |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------+
| FY3/22 Forecast   | ¥1,600,000M |        ¥500,000M |  ¥340,000M |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------+

Hardware sales units: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Code:

+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch (units)    |  Switch  |Switch Lite|Hardware Total|Software Total|
+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter       |    3.31M |     1.14M |        4.45M |       45.29M |
| Life-To-Date      |   73.2M |     15.84M |       89.04M |      632.41M |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| FY3/22 Forecast   |                      |        25.5M |       190.0M |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------+
(Software sales units include both packaged and downloadable versions of software.)
###
+---------------------------------------+
| Smart devices, IP related income, etc.|
+---------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter       |          ¥13,199M |
+---------------------------------------+
 (Includes income from smart-device content and royalty income.)

Supplemental information:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2021/210805_3e.pdf

Code:

+------------------------------+
| Proportion of overseas sales |
+------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter        |  77.9%  |
+------------------------------+
+------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of overseas(outside of Japan) sales to total sales)
+------------------------------+
| Proportion of hardware sales |
+------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter        |  47.6%  |
+------------------------------+
+------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of hardware(including accessories) sales to total
dedicated videogame platform sales)
+------------------------------------------+
| Proportion of first party software sales |
+------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter        |  72.3%  |
+------------------------------+
+------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of first-party software sales to total dedicated video
game software sales)
+--------------------------------+
| Digital Sales                  |
+--------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter        |   ¥75.9B  |
+--------------------------------+
+--------------------------------+
(※ Digital sales include a) downloadable versions of packaged software,
b) download-only software,c) add-on content and d) Nintendo Switch Online, etc.
＊ "Downloadable versions of packaged software" indicates the
downloadable version of software that is offered both physically and digitally.)
+------------------------------+
| Proportion of Digital Sales  |
+------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter        |  46.9%  |
+------------------------------+
+------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of digital sales to total dedicated
 video game software sales )
+------------------------------------------+
|Proportion of DL Ver. of Packaged SW Sales|
+------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter        |  52.1%  |
+------------------------------+
+------------------------------+
(※ Proportion of downloadable versions of packaged software sales
 to total digital sales as indicated above: a/(a+b+c+d) )

Code:

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch Lite             |  Japan   |The Americas|  Europe   |   Other   |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)     |    0.34M |      0.48M |     0.26M |      0.05M |
| 1st Quarter WW%         |    29.82% |      42.11% |     22.81% |     4.39% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)|     0.34M |      0.48M |     0.26M |     0.05M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative WW%   |   29.82% |     42.11% |    22.81% |     4.39% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Life-To-Date (Units)    |    4.15M |      6.89M |     3.73M |     1.06M |
| Life-To-Date WW%        |   26.2% |     43.5% |    23.55% |     6.69% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch Hardware         |  Japan   |The Americas|  Europe   |   Other   |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)     |    1.16M |      1.59M |     1.08M |     0.62M |
| 1st Quarter WW%         |   26.07% |      35.73% |    24.27% |    13.93% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)|    1.16M |      1.59M |     1.08M |     0.62M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative WW%   |   26.07% |     35.73% |    24.27% |    13.93% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Life-To-Date (Units)    |   21.2M |     34.86M |    22.66M |      10.33M |
| Life-To-Date WW%        |    23.81% |     39.15% |    25.45% |    11.6% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch Software         |  Japan   |The Americas|  Europe   |   Other   |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)     |   8.13M |     22.35M |    11.35M |     3.46M |
| 1st Quarter WW%         |   17.95% |     49.35% |    25.06% |     7.64% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)|   8.13M |     22.35M |    11.35M |    3.46M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative WW%   |    17.95% |     49.35% |    25.06% |     7.64% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Life-To-Date (Units)    |   120.35M |    283.35M |   183.5M |    45.2M |
| Life-To-Date WW%        |    19.03% |     44.8% |    29.02% |     7.15% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###

Code:

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Nintendo Switch FY Million-Seller Titles                                                  |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Miitopia                                | FY Japan | FY Overseas | FY Global | Global LTD |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)                     |    0.26M |        0.78M |     1.04M |      1.04M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)               |    0.26M |       0.78M |     1.04M |      1.04M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative JP/O%, Global FY/LTD% |    25.0% |      75.0% |    100.0% |       0.0% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe                     | FY Japan | FY Overseas | FY Global | Global LTD |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)                     |    0.2M |       1.5M |      1.69M |     37.08M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)               |    0.2M |       1.5M |     1.69M |     37.08M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative JP/O%, Global FY/LTD% |   11.83% |      88.76% |    4.56% |     95.44% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Mario Golf: Super Rush                  | FY Japan | FY Overseas | FY Global | Global LTD |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)                     |    0.21M |        1.13M |     1.34M |      1.34M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)               |    0.21M |       1.13M |     1.34M |      1.34M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative JP/O%, Global FY/LTD% |   15.67% |      84.33% |    100.0% |       0.0% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Ring Fit Adventure                      | FY Japan | FY Overseas | FY Global | Global LTD |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)                     |    0.25M |        0.89M |     1.15M |      11.26M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)               |    0.25M |       0.89M |     1.15M |      11.26M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative JP/O%, Global FY/LTD% |    21.74% |       77.39% |    10.21% |       89.79% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Animal Crossing: New Horizons           | FY Japan | FY Overseas | FY Global | Global LTD |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)                     |    0.13M |        1.13M |     1.26M |      33.89M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)               |    0.13M |       1.13M |    1.26M |     33.89M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative JP/O%, Global FY/LTD% |   10.32% |      89.68% |    3.72% |       96.28% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Super Mario 3D World + Boswer's Fury    | FY Japan | FY Overseas | FY Global | Global LTD |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)                     |    0.21M |        0.87M |     1.09M |      6.68M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)               |    0.21M |       0.87M |     1.09M |      6.68M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative JP/O%, Global FY/LTD% |   19.27% |      79.82% |    16.32% |       83.68% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
###
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| New Pokémon Snap                        | FY Japan | FY Overseas | FY Global | Global LTD |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter (Units)                     |    0.0M |        2.07M |     2.07M |      2.07M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative (Units)               |    0.0M |       2.07M |     2.07M |      2.07M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative JP/O%, Global FY/LTD% |   0.0% |      100.0% |    100.0% |       0.0% |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  *This title is released and sold by The Pokémon Company in Japan, and by Nintendo outside of Japan.
###

Top selling title sales units as of June 30th, 2021 in no particular order: (Go to the link to see it in order: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html )

Code:

+------------------------------------------------------+
| Switch - Top Selling Titles (No Ranking) |   Units   |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Mario Kart 8 Deluxe                      |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |      1.69M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |     1.69M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    37.08M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Super Mario Odyssey                      |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |      0.57M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |     0.57M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    21.4M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild  |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |     0.92M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |     0.92M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    23.2M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Splatoon 2                               |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |     0.24M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |     0.24M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    12.45M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Animal Crossing: New Horizons            |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |      1.26M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |    1.26M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    33.89M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Pokémon Sword/Shield                     |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |      0.75M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |    0.75M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    21.85M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu/Eevee           |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |     0.29M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |     0.29M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    13.57M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Ring Fit Adventure                       |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |     1.15M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |     1.15M |
| Life-To-Date                             |      11.26M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Super Mario Party                        |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |     0.93M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |      0.93M |
| Life-To-Date                             |     15.72M |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| Super Smash Bros. Ultimate               |           |
+------------------------------------------------------+
| 1st Quarter                              |     0.93M |
| FY3/22 Cumulative                        |     0.93M |
| Life-To-Date                             |    24.77M |
+------------------------------------------------------+

mjw · Aug 5, 2021

Ring Fit overtook Mario Bros on the best sellers list

Twister · Aug 5, 2021

Really good sales for New Pokémon Snap and Mario 3D World!
Also surprised Miitopia broke a million. Hope this means we see Tomodachi Life soon!

Oregano · Aug 5, 2021

The Switch story is finally exhausted. Time to wrap it up.

Rockets · Aug 5, 2021

BOTW might actually outsell Smash Bros. Who would have fucking thought

SinCityAssassin · Aug 5, 2021

Nintendo comprises 7/10ths of their software sales on Switch. Lower than usual because of Monster Hunter probably.

Twister · Aug 5, 2021

Oregano said:
The Switch story is finally exhausted. Time to wrap it up.

This has to be sarcasm

Oregano · Aug 5, 2021

Twister said:
This has to be sarcasm

If this decline continues for the rest of the year Nintendo will only be looking at ~21m units of Switch sold.

How will they ever recover?

Yes, it's sarcasm

LostCauseUnite! · Aug 5, 2021

So, now it is at the 7th spot.

DecoReturns · Aug 5, 2021

Oregano said:
The Switch story is finally exhausted. Time to wrap it up.

Finally.
Discussion we've never had before. A switch 2

totally not a pro.

Norsuchamp · Aug 5, 2021

It's a small shame that OLED does not make it to this ongoing quarter. Would be nice to see how it actually would've rolled out without the aid of the holiday season?

Catalyst · Aug 5, 2021

Twister said:
This has to be sarcasm

No he is completely serious. Nintendo will go third party next month because of crippling debt from this mild sales decline.

Tialo · Aug 5, 2021

Switch Hardware sales by calendar year:

2017: 14.87 Mio.
2018: 17.4 Mio.
2019: 20.21 Mio.
2020: 27.39 Mio.
2021: 9.17 Mio. (1st half)

LTD: 89.04 Mio.

Killer · Aug 5, 2021

need Switch Pro ASAP.

cw_sasuke · Aug 5, 2021

Switch to become the first console to reach 100m without a price drop. Very impressive.

SuperFakerBros · Aug 5, 2021

Now if only there was a proper price drop and bundles to keep the momentum up. Still impressive nevertheless and I'll probably add in another when the Switch OLED comes out

SinCityAssassin · Aug 5, 2021

SuperFakerBros said:
Now if only there was a proper price drop and bundles to keep the momentum up. Still impressive nevertheless and I'll probably add in another when the Switch OLED comes out

In all honesty I have no certainty they need that to keep momentum up as it is.

Ryng™ · Aug 5, 2021

Switch about what i expected, software however slighly better than my predictions. Good numbers.

We should expect the next quarter to be down again and the holiday quarter to be up for the rest of the year.

Deleted member 10737 · Aug 5, 2021

the beginning of the end 😔

Dr. Mario · Aug 5, 2021

20% lower is a pretty steep drop tbf. Although nothing of note has released for a year.
No worries, Switch 2 in 2023 anyway.

Tialo · Aug 5, 2021

Tialo said:
Switch Hardware sales by calendar year:

2017: 14.87 Mio.
2018: 17.4 Mio.
2019: 20.21 Mio.
2020: 27.39 Mio.
2021: 9.17 Mio. (1st halft)

LTD: 89.04 Mio.

To discuss this here again:

I think it is pretty sure to predict that Switch sales at the end of 2021 will reach something between the sales of 2019 and 2020. So I think an estimation about 24-25 Mio. units is very realistic for 2021s sales.

SinCityAssassin · Aug 5, 2021

Dr. Mario said:
20% lower is a pretty steep drop tbf. Although nothing of note has released for a year.
No worries, Switch 2 in 2023 anyway.

Around this point in time, New Horizons was an unstoppable sales juggernaut, nothing this year matches that intensity so makes sense.

Helix · Aug 5, 2021

I'm surprised it hasn't hit 100mil already. I think it definitely will at the end of the year!

SuperFakerBros · Aug 5, 2021

SinCityAssassin said:
In all honesty I have no certainty they need that to keep momentum up as it is.

Isn't there a drop off for the first quarter? I'd imagine lowering the price would help bring in folk who tend to buy systems later in the generation at a discount

Deleted member 5491 · Aug 5, 2021

Overall less sales compared to last FY.
But then again, it's year number 5 and there was nothing like Animal Crossing.
Switch should overtake Wii and PS1 in lifetime sales by the end of this calendar year, based on
their sales boost in Q3 and their upcoming games.

SinCityAssassin · Aug 5, 2021

SuperFakerBros said:
Isn't there a drop off for the first quarter? I'd imagine lowering the price would help bring in folk who tend to buy systems later in the generation at a discount

If it's dropped off from Animal Crossing Year, but still above 2019's Q1, then that should say enough about how stable momentum is. It's not gonna drop like a rock like PS4 did after PS5 came out.

Ninferno · Aug 5, 2021

20+% drop in hardware sales. Rip Switch, you had a good run. /s

MisterSpo · Aug 5, 2021

Entirety of the hardware drop is down to the Lite. Shipments of the default model are actually slightly up year over year.

Okabe · Aug 5, 2021

Damn Nintendo Can't be stopped it seems

Streusel · Aug 5, 2021

do we think any game released this fiscal year will be a 10 million seller? maybe pokemon remake/legends?

Helix · Aug 5, 2021

realistically, we can assume switch or a successor model is due in 2023 right?

Kingpin722 · Aug 5, 2021

People don't want the Lite anymore it seems

SuperFakerBros · Aug 5, 2021

SinCityAssassin said:
If it's dropped off from Animal Crossing Year, but still above 2019's Q1, then that should say enough about how stable momentum is. It's not gonna drop like a rock like PS4 did after PS5 came out.

Oh no, I don't expect it to drop like a rock till the Switch 2 comes out in like 2024 or whatever. I'm just saying that more can be done to increase total hardware sales even further

Deleted member 63122 · Aug 5, 2021

Streusel said:
do we think any game released this fiscal year will be a 10 million seller? maybe pokemon remake/legends?

Other than those 2, Splatoon 3 if it is their March game.

Dr. Mario · Aug 5, 2021

Tialo said:
Switch Hardware sales by calendar year:

2017: 14.87 Mio.
2018: 17.4 Mio.
2019: 20.21 Mio.
2020: 27.39 Mio.
2021: 9.17 Mio. (1st halft)

LTD: 89.04 Mio.

Spitballing here

2021 23 Mio
2022 18 Mio
2023 10 Mio (release of Succ but also crossgen Zelda)
2024 5 Mio

135-140 Mio LTD.
Not the close to 200 I was thinking of earlier, but NoPro does that.

Oregano · Aug 5, 2021

Streusel said:
do we think any game released this fiscal year will be a 10 million seller? maybe pokemon remake/legends?

Inside of the fiscal year or just over its lifetime?

Because if the latter Mario Party Superstars is also in with a shot.

UltraMagnus · Aug 5, 2021

Switch staring down the Wii and PS1 like

Streusel · Aug 5, 2021

storres said:
Other than those 2, Splatoon 3 if it is their March game.

Oregano said:
Inside of the fiscal year or just over its lifetime?

Because if the latter Mario Party Superstars is also in with a shot.

lifetime, i'm kinda doubtful about both games because they will be "direct sequels" to games already released on switch so the novelty factor may be gone

GTVision · Aug 5, 2021

cw_sasuke said:
Switch to become the first console to reach 100m without a price drop. Very impressive.

The Switch Lite kind of counts as a price drop though. It's a cheaper version.

Dr. Mario said:
20% lower is a pretty steep drop tbf. Although nothing of note has released for a year.
No worries, Switch 2 in 2023 anyway.

I actually think 20% is not that bad, especially considering how big a year 2020 was for them due to covid.

SuperFakerBros · Aug 5, 2021

GTVision said:
The Switch Lite kind of counts as a price drop though. It's a cheaper version.

It is a cheaper version but it's also a significantly less popular version that lacks some of what makes the Switch stand out so, for most, I'd imagine it wouldn't

SinCityAssassin · Aug 5, 2021

Super Rush probably has the chance to beat... whichever Mario Golf game sold more than it before the end of the year.

Was it Toadstool Tour?

cw_sasuke · Aug 5, 2021

GTVision said:
The Switch Lite kind of counts as a price drop though. It's a cheaper version.

I dont think so, personally. Drop means actual price drop.

Dr. Mario said:
Spitballing here

2021 23 Mio
2022 18 Mio
2023 10 Mio (release of Succ but also crossgen Zelda)
2024 5 Mio

135-140 Mio LTD.
Not the close to 200 I was thinking of earlier, but NoPro does that.

There is no way Switch sales will drop this fast. Unless Nintendo actively decides to kill it which is very unlikely

Deleted member 60185 · Aug 5, 2021

Tialo · Aug 5, 2021

Dr. Mario said:
Spitballing here

2021 23 Mio
2022 18 Mio
2023 10 Mio (release of Succ but also crossgen Zelda)
2024 5 Mio

135-140 Mio LTD.
Not the close to 200 I was thinking of earlier, but NoPro does that.

Yes sounds realistic. But I hope that BotW2 will release in 2022 and I also think that Switch 2 will come in Spring 2024.

Marmoka · Aug 5, 2021

The Switch has already sold more than Wii U and 3DS combined. It will clearly sell more than the Wii this fiscal year.

Who knows if it will outsell the PS4 next year, it will be interesting to see.

Bulbul · Aug 5, 2021

What does it mean when they said they will buy their own shares for 100 billion? Or 1.5%?

UltraMagnus · Aug 5, 2021

Marmoka said:
The Switch has already sold more than Wii U and 3DS combined. It will clearly sell more than the Wii this fiscal year.

Who knows if it will outsell the PS4 next year, it will be interesting to see.

Kinda wild how Switch outselling the PS4 has basically become a matter of when, not if.

SinCityAssassin · Aug 5, 2021

Aostia82 · Aug 5, 2021

Obviously down YoY but the drop is significant

Still, 100 million seems a lock within this CY, PS1 and Wii will be the next to fall

JershJopstin · Aug 5, 2021

GTVision said:
I actually think 20% is not that bad, especially considering how big a year 2020 was for them due to covid.

Not just COVID:

This chart is just software, but there was no sustaining momentum YoY in any scenario. Even a new Mario Kart, while a virtually guaranteed sales juggernaut, will likely not drive hardware sales to quite the same degree as Animal Crossing did due to the existence of MK8D on the platform (though it will still measurably drive sales, of course). AC, in my mind, likely captured the last large market segment Nintendo had yet to draw in.

SuperFakerBros said:
Now if only there was a proper price drop and bundles to keep the momentum up. Still impressive nevertheless and I'll probably add in another when the Switch OLED comes out

SuperFakerBros said:
Isn't there a drop off for the first quarter? I'd imagine lowering the price would help bring in folk who tend to buy systems later in the generation at a discount

I sincerely doubt there's anything they could've done to maintain hardware sales YOY. The fact that it's down isn't necessarily a sign they did anything wrong, especially when it's still so high. If they want to maintain the profit margin on the SKU, so be it.

Another factor that I haven't seen taken into consideration is Nintendo's own admission that the silicon shortage played a hand in their forecast - which they're still on pace to hit. Why lower the price just to run out of units to sell?

Nintendo FY3/2022 Q1 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q1 - 4.45M (-21.7% YoY), 89.04M LTD

Sales Heaven or Sales Hell?

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