Nintendo needs to sell 14.93 million units in the six months from October 2018 to March 2019

[Deleted member 249]

Their forecast for 20 million units of the Switch sold was insane to begin with, but once the lineup for this year became evident, it seemed more and more unlikely that they might be able to hit it. We're getting Pokemon, but it's not the Pokemon, and Smash will be a monster, but one and a half games, even two games, cannot carry a console to that target.

So far, the Switch has sold 5.07 million units in the six months this fiscal year, and Nintendo has not budged from its 20 million forecast. The Labo gambit, assuming it was meant to lead to wider sales, hasn't yet paid off. All Holiday season titles are announced. While Super Mario Party, Super Smash Bros., Pokemon, and NSMBU DX are going to be big movers, I flat out cannot see how they will propel the Switch to 20 million for this fiscal year.

So here we are: 14.93 million units needed in six months. Do you think the Switch hits this target? Or do you think Nintendo will lower its estimates to a saner, say, 18 million or thereabouts after Q3 is done?

 

[Anth0ny]

smash switch bundle
pokemon switch bundle
fortnite switch bundle

they're doing 15 mil in 2 months!

 

[kjtc1979]

I was just about to post a similar thread, but with the question, "How would you get Nintendo to its 20 million goal by March 31, 2018?"

For me, it would be a price drop and/or free game bundle that launches in January with NSMBU Deluxe.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

I really can't say. Gut feeling says it will hit it or come really close to it.

 

[test_account]

17-18 million seems more likely, but you'll never know with Pokemon and Smash.

 

[Eliseo]

10-12m can be done thanks to Pokemon and Smash.

 

[Deleted member 2791]

If it doesn't reach that it'll be very close anyway.

 

[Chindogg]

Smash and Pokemon bundles should push it through. We'll probably know by the end of November if they're on pace to do it.

 

[YolkFolk]

Expected early 2019 titles?

New Super Mario Bros U
Fire Emblem
Animal Crossing
Yoshi's Crafted World

 

[Horror]

They got this.

Smash Brothers will move so many units that it'll be like a console relaunch.

 

[Grylvak]

Smash and Pokemon will get people to buy a Switch, if they don't have one already. I think they'll be shy of 20 million by March but hopefully i'm wrong.

 

[cvbas]

I don't think we should underestimate the power of holidays + Smash + Pokemon.

 

[chrisPjelly]

It probably won't make it, but I think it will be closer to that number than people are expecting

 

[Phendrift]

Ridley and K. Rool will make it happen


For real though, they've never really had a holiday lineup like this. Mario Party, Pokemon, Smash. Don't sleep on NSMBUDX either.

 

[Raijinto]

I mean I don't think anything 'needs' to happen. I think a more realistic and common prediction is that they'll just fall short by about 1-2 million units due to underperformances of Labo and maybe PLG and the delays of Fire Emblem and Yoshi. That won't equate with failure of course, as 35 million units LTD on its second anniversary or thereabouts is still mighty impressive, especially when software is taken into consideration. It's doing incredible on that front.

 

[Bunkles]

I see them getting close but I don't think they'll sell 15 million consoles in six months, no.

 

[Sonicfan059]

Wait it has only done 5M in six months? I really don't think it will. The PS4 did 3.9M in Q2 (3 months) and their forecast is only 17.5M.

I'm sure it'll do well in the holidays but in order to hit that it has to pull numbers equal or higher than the Wii.

 

[Spooky_Lantern]

I would wait until holiday sales to sound the alarms. Didn't they sell 8 million last holiday? If they sell 10 million this holiday, they'd have til March to get another 4 million. If Animal Crossing is early 2019...

 

[Fireblend]

They can do it with what they have. You can't ask for better heavy-hitters than Pokemon and Smash.

 

[Real Hero]

why do they NEED to

 

[Femto0]

When people will see pokemon switch in the shops they'll go crazy

 

[K Samedi]

Either very close or they will just hit 20 million with some stuffing in Q4. I don't see them being very far off from their forecast. A pretty ambitious forecast all things considered, but it will also be very close to reality.

They were hugely conservative with their software forecast though. They will blow past their 100 million software forecast with ease.

 

[Saint-14]

How much did they sell Q3 last year again?

 

[Deleted member 249]

why do they NEED to

Click to shrink...

Because that's what they have projected in their forecast.

 

[MrChocolate]

Pokemon alone will sell 10 million consoles. Imagine Smash.

 

[Deleted member 5764]

Just for the hell of it, I'm going to root for them to hit that goal anyway. Pokemon and Smash will definitely help propel sales, and I think the Fortnite bundles will do a decent job as well. LABO will be made, or broken this holiday once those "must have" toy lists go around.

 

[DrWong]

Easy.

 

[Coxy]

they need to? They'll go bust if they don't then I presume???

 

[ckareset]

Pokemon and Smash.They will be close

 

[Serebii]

Pokemon alone will sell 10 million consoles

Click to shrink...

As much as I want to agree, this year's Pokémon game has the worst engagement on socials and on my site as any main game I have ever seen. It's quite astonishing. All around on videos etc. you'll get people complaining about it.

It'll do well, but not amazing

 

[Christo750]

Pokemon in November
Smash in December
2D Mario in January
Who even knows in February.
Imagine Animal Crossing in Q1 like was rumored not too long after the Direct aired?

I think it can be done.

 

[SR7212]

October to January should be very rewrarding for them. Wonder if they will just pip it or run out of steam.

 

[Platy]

12 million on the hollidays and 2 millions on 2019 sounds pretty doable

 

[Pancakes R Us]

I hope they hit it but I reckon a total of 15m for the fiscal year is more likely.

 

[brykuhn91]

I believe they need a price cut this holiday to hit the 20 million goal. With out a price cut i think they hit 17.5 million.

 

[Zoph]

I think you're underestimating how monstrously huge Pokemon Go is. It might not be mainline Pokemon but Let's Go Eevee/Pikachu has massive crossover appeal with the Go players.

 

[Christo750]

As much as I want to agree, this year's Pokémon game has the worst engagement on socials and on my site as any main game I have ever seen. It's quite astonishing. All around on videos etc. you'll get people complaining about it.

It'll do well, but not amazing

Click to shrink...

This is really interesting. Obviously you have the hard data, but I always got a NSMBWii vibe from Let's Go. Like the almost sterile universal appeal. We'll see what happens I guess!

 

[Diarrhea Day-Lewis]

15M even for Switch seems optimistic for that period.

I could see 10M in that period, total of 15-16M for the fiscal year and 30M by end of March

Important to see if they finally do a Black Friday sale like Xbox and Sony do. A $200 Switch for just three days would kill.

 

[RedAhmed]

I think they'll sell about 10-12 million at most the coming 6 months. But never say never, they have some hardware bundles ready to bump the sales a bit. Also early 2019 stuff like NSMBUDX should help the post holidays sales I hope.

 

[Becks']

Pokemon/Smash bundles + holidays + Superbowl commercial. I think they can pull it off. They'll be off by a 1 or 2 million at the end.

 

[Visanideth]

I'm not sure they can, but Nintendo and holydays are an explosive admixture, so I'll grab my popcorn and watch the fireworks.

 

[Gianko]

well i don't think so! the Pokemon game is not what people were asking for and it has the competition of the mobile version (i know that it's different but the core is the same). Smash will sell a lot but i don't see it as a console seller...not as Zelda and you need a subscription to play online now....will see.

 

[hussien-11]

It won't happen.

 

[Dwebble]

As much as I want to agree, this year's Pokémon game has the worst engagement on socials and on my site as any main game I have ever seen. It's quite astonishing. All around on videos etc. you'll get people complaining about it.

It'll do well, but not amazing

Click to shrink...

The crowd that would make Let's Go a success aren't checking your site, in fairness.

 

[Martl]

Not gonna happen in my opinion.

 

[AxkilAvenger]

They are gonna SMASH it outta the ball park

 

[Real Hero]

Because that's what they have projected in their forecast.

Click to shrink...

what happens if they don't

 

[Deleted member 249]

I think you're underestimating how monstrously huge Pokemon Go is. It might not be mainline Pokemon but Let's Go Eevee/Pikachu has massive crossover appeal with the Go players.

Click to shrink...

I'm legit interested in LGPE, but I think you and others are overestimating how well it will do:

As much as I want to agree, this year's Pokémon game has the worst engagement on socials and on my site as any main game I have ever seen. It's quite astonishing. All around on videos etc. you'll get people complaining about it.

It'll do well, but not amazing

Click to shrink...

 

[Deleted member 249]

what happens if they don't

Click to shrink...

Then they miss their forecast, and at least somewhat lose the momentum and confidence in the Switch narrative so far.

 

[Deleted member 4346]

I've been saying this since Nintendo announced the 20m target- they are going to fall short. The game lineup this year was just too weak. Smash and Pokemon will be huge but between Switch pricing and the pre-holiday lineup it is just not going to be enough.